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29 March, '24. Short week. Good Friday. Nothing specific about Markets this week. Joshua Bolten was asked some pretty obvious questions, with obvious answers, given his point of view. Some sort of CEO Roundtable Chair. Ya think CEOs are ever going to want higher taxes? Duh.
And Larry Fink with the privatization mantra. Gimme a break.
"....As far as I am aware, no other country in the eighties and nineties deregulated and privatised as far or as fast as New Zealand attempted..."
This link is from 2001, but it still is true and applicable. Don't privatize stuff that everyone needs. Electricity, transport. Post Office. What does it matter if someone gets paid by the State or a private company? People work, people earn money, people spend. The circle goes round and round. And internal accountability? the way it had been going on at Boeing, for instance? Buncha garbage. Big Money will never police itself. ORK! https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/lessons-privatisation
If you like hearing Ray Dalio you’ll enjoy the first segment (April 5). Never at a loss for words. Includes a clip of Dalio being interviewed on the original WSW in the 80s about the Mexican Peso crisis. Also features some clips of Congressional testimony he gave around then. And, of course, the interview with Bloomberg’s David Westin.
A good portion of the later part is spent with Larry Summers. Better than average and longer than average discussion. Larry took exception to some of Powell’s recent rhetoric / interest rate comments. As usual, Summers sees the Fed as far “behind the curve” in moving rates up to a meaningful / appropriate level. (Of course, should the economy tank, it won’t be Summers taking the blame.) If there was much investment-specific advise on this show I missed it. But Dalio did talk about the learning curve and how early mistakes can prove rewarding longer term if you learn a lasting lesson. Dalio also emphasized taking diversified approaches as an investor.
Addition - Sonal Desai, CEO of Fixed Income Investing at Franklin Funds, also was interviewed on the show for a few minutes. I find Desai engaging and bright … but a recent check of her prior Barron’s Roundtable record in predicting winners was a bit disheartening. Nonetheless, like Summers, Desai also finds the Fed’s fund rate too low and doesn’t agree with Powell on that matter.
The "hot" jobs numbers released by gummint was mentioned by Summers. He's pushing for a rather higher neutral rate. I giggle at the jobs numbers, anymore: most of the hires are part-time. No vacation, no benefits. Because employers can get away with it. Some folks want P/T, ok. And 3.8% unemployment? LOL. How many part-time jobs are in that mix? No one can be a breadwinner working P/T, although many today are forced to try to do it.
The "hot" jobs numbers released by gummint was mentioned by Summers. He's pushing for a rather higher neutral rate. I giggle at the jobs numbers, anymore: most of the hires are part-time. No vacation, no benefits. Because employers can get away with it. Some folks want P/T, ok. And 3.8% unemployment? LOL. How many part-time jobs are in that mix? No one can be a breadwinner working P/T, although many today are forced to try to do it.
From this weeks Barron's:
"One other knock on the labor market data has been the strength in part-time employment versus full-time jobs. But there’s nothing wrong with that, if it’s for the right reason, according to RBC Capital Markets economist Michael Reid. The number of part-timers who actually prefer those gigs outnumber those forced to take part-time work for economic reasons by a factor of five, he writes in a client note."
"With more employers changing work-from-home policies, it isn’t surprising that some workers are preferring more flexible arrangements, he continues. There is also a clear upward trend in the number of over-55 workers opting for part-time gigs instead of full-time, he adds."
I'd think that the nature of the part time jobs would depend very much on the needs and desires of the job holder. If it's one of those "we will call you when we need you and you had better respond" type of "jobs", then that's total crap.
However if the employee simply wants some extra income, and is able to work on a mutually agreeable schedule, that seems fine to me.
Another factor right now is that since the disruptions of Covid so many businesses, jobs, and employment conditions are changing almost on a daily basis there is just great uncertainty in the job market, for both employers and employees. This is especially true here in the SF Bay Area, where the tech scene is in total turmoil.
For instance, today's headline- "Apple lays off 600 workers in California after shuttering self-driving car project".
I'd think that the nature of the part time jobs would depend very much on the needs and desires of the job holder. If it's one of those "we will call you when we need you and you had better respond" type of "jobs", then that's total crap.
However if the employee simply wants some extra income, and is able to work on a mutually agreeable schedule, that seems fine to me. [snip]
This supposed clone of Louis Rukeyser’s famed show seems to have forgotten to mention the market’s performance last week, even failing to note that the Dow closed above 40,000 for the first time ever. Rukeyser must be muttering to himself somewhere out there.
My guess is that the entire show was recorded Thursday morning. I confess to listening only to the long segment early in the show with Rick Rieder. Rieder advances a strange (near bizarre) thesis that the Fed could lower inflation by lowering interest rates …
I’ve long thought (as Rieder suggests) that the real heat in the economy is coming from aging seniors - especially boomers - who are spending down assets accumulated over a lifetime of saving and investing. Rieder notes that prices of goods have remained relatively stable compared to prices for services. And that spending by those over 55 for services has far outdistanced that of younger people.
Curious contrast between two heavyweight bond investors. PIMCO’s Dan Ivascyn was featured on a Consuelo Mack interview @bee recently posted. Very quiet and non-opinionated - holding his cards close to the vest. Whereas Blackrock’s Rieder can’t stop talking. Then, toss in former bond giant Bill Gross, who doesn’t like bonds anymore - a real study in personalities.
that the real heat in the economy is coming from aging seniors - especially boomers - who are spending down assets accumulated over a lifetime of saving and investing.
One may suppose that the 'boomers' who are healthy enough to 'spend down' their dollars via travel, etc.; and actually have those assets may be part of any 'heat'. There are many boomers who have various assets, being real property and some form of savings (that may be inherited by others, and not a spouse) ARE actually passing away and inherited assets are going to 'who knows where'. Without a doubt, those boomers who were able to save are now drawing money via RMD's and annuity payments; whether they choose to or not. Hopefully, someone is performing an ongoing study of 'where is the money?'
Go to the very end about the (non-) extension of the 2nd Ave. subway. It's the same EVERYWHERE in this country. Each instance has its own details and rationalizations. But the bottom line is that this country refuses to invest in state of the art, contemporary, efficient transportation infrastructure. Collapsing bridges from time to time is just a symptom. Our transportation infrastructure is dismal. A comparison with Europe leaves the USA in the dust.
Lots of politics. 05 July, 2024. Stephanie Flanders on recent and upcoming elections. Keir Starmer will be the only one "with a spring in his step" at upcoming Leaders' Meetings. La Pen will not get a clear majority. The Chevron SCOTUS decision. Great little story at the end involving Peter Jennings.
Larry Summers is high on the prospect of a Harris Presidency. He says Harris' previous push for Medicare For All is not a thing to be expected, any longer. (Bernie and AOC would have a thing or two to say about that!). Summers: The Republicans in this campaign season are pushing policies that would create a "Liz Truss Moment."
From GS: Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani. Overweight US equities. Even after such a strong recovery, STAY invested. US preeminence still holds. On an after-tax basis, equities look much better than any sort of bonds. US stocks' performance has exceeded GS expectations for the year, already. ... US national debt: biggest concern is the fiscal trajectory. No one really knows where the tipping point is, when expectations fall and the dollar tanks, in light of the size of the debt. For the foreseeable future, there is no need for major concern.
David Hunt, PGIM: a conversation re: the global macro picture. Owen Thomas, BXP on CRE. Slow recovery since pandemic.
02 Aug '24: Scarlet Fu, in for David Westin. He's in Aspen. But he did have a segment today.
Mike McKee started, giving a Big Picture view of developments today. Sensible, easily unpacking stuff that could be expressed in a more arcane way... He's good to listen to.
Ram Emmanuel: Amb. to Japan. A few new bits of info. Predictable, but engaging.
Kevin McCarthy. Talking up Glen Youngkin. ("great for a Cabinet post.") Trump? Mentioned that the way he puts things can be off-putting, though he is RIGHT. And the election coming up "is all about PA."
Mike McKee is always good. One of BB’s best analysts. Did anyone mention that sharply falling long term rates (as last week) lead to a more inverted curve?
Mostly a wasted show largely occupied with several mostly political interviews (thinly veiled as economic) from the summit. One exception was Robert Zoellick - a former campaign manager for George HW Bush. (Bush 1) near the end of the interviews. Fascinating. Refreshing. Really knows his stuff when it comes to politics.
Comments
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-02-24/wall-street-week-02-23-2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-02/wall-street-week-03-01-2024-video
Mary Daly (S.F. Fed) comes across as super-smart, expert communicator. Clear. Precise.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-09/wall-street-week-03-08-2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-16/wall-street-week-03-15-2024-video
Nothing specific about Markets this week.
Joshua Bolten was asked some pretty obvious questions, with obvious answers, given his point of view. Some sort of CEO Roundtable Chair. Ya think CEOs are ever going to want higher taxes? Duh.
And Larry Fink with the privatization mantra. Gimme a break.
"....As far as I am aware, no other country in the eighties and nineties deregulated and privatised as far or as fast as New Zealand attempted..."
This link is from 2001, but it still is true and applicable. Don't privatize stuff that everyone needs. Electricity, transport. Post Office. What does it matter if someone gets paid by the State or a private company? People work, people earn money, people spend. The circle goes round and round. And internal accountability? the way it had been going on at Boeing, for instance? Buncha garbage. Big Money will never police itself. ORK!
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/lessons-privatisation
05 April, '24.
A good portion of the later part is spent with Larry Summers. Better than average and longer than average discussion. Larry took exception to some of Powell’s recent rhetoric / interest rate comments. As usual, Summers sees the Fed as far “behind the curve” in moving rates up to a meaningful / appropriate level. (Of course, should the economy tank, it won’t be Summers taking the blame.) If there was much investment-specific advise on this show I missed it. But Dalio did talk about the learning curve and how early mistakes can prove rewarding longer term if you learn a lasting lesson. Dalio also emphasized taking diversified approaches as an investor.
Addition - Sonal Desai, CEO of Fixed Income Investing at Franklin Funds, also was interviewed on the show for a few minutes. I find Desai engaging and bright … but a recent check of her prior Barron’s Roundtable record in predicting winners was a bit disheartening. Nonetheless, like Summers, Desai also finds the Fed’s fund rate too low and doesn’t agree with Powell on that matter.
"One other knock on the labor market data has been the strength in part-time employment versus full-time jobs. But there’s nothing wrong with that, if it’s for the right reason, according to RBC Capital Markets economist Michael Reid. The number of part-timers who actually prefer those gigs outnumber those forced to take part-time work for economic reasons by a factor of five, he writes in a client note."
"With more employers changing work-from-home policies, it isn’t surprising that some workers are preferring more flexible arrangements, he continues. There is also a clear upward trend in the number of over-55 workers opting for part-time gigs instead of full-time, he adds."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stock-market-will-feel-a-tremor-if-payrolls-and-inflation-keep-rising/ar-BB1l9tDM
However if the employee simply wants some extra income, and is able to work on a mutually agreeable schedule, that seems fine to me.
Another factor right now is that since the disruptions of Covid so many businesses, jobs, and employment conditions are changing almost on a daily basis there is just great uncertainty in the job market, for both employers and employees. This is especially true here in the SF Bay Area, where the tech scene is in total turmoil.
For instance, today's headline- "Apple lays off 600 workers in California after shuttering self-driving car project".
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/09/opinion/us-economy-inflation-recession.html
I enjoyed the guests. Sensible, clear. Marcus from PGIM on Real Estate. I've still not switched-out of PSTL. Those conversations never focus on a niche stock like PSTL.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-04-19/wall-street-week-04-19-2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-05-03/wall-street-week-05-03-2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-05-18/wall-street-week-05-17-2024
My guess is that the entire show was recorded Thursday morning. I confess to listening only to the long segment early in the show with Rick Rieder. Rieder advances a strange (near bizarre) thesis that the Fed could lower inflation by lowering interest rates …
I’ve long thought (as Rieder suggests) that the real heat in the economy is coming from aging seniors - especially boomers - who are spending down assets accumulated over a lifetime of saving and investing. Rieder notes that prices of goods have remained relatively stable compared to prices for services. And that spending by those over 55 for services has far outdistanced that of younger people.
Curious contrast between two heavyweight bond investors. PIMCO’s Dan Ivascyn was featured on a Consuelo Mack interview @bee recently posted. Very quiet and non-opinionated - holding his cards close to the vest. Whereas Blackrock’s Rieder can’t stop talking. Then, toss in former bond giant Bill Gross, who doesn’t like bonds anymore - a real study in personalities.
Without a doubt, those boomers who were able to save are now drawing money via RMD's and annuity payments; whether they choose to or not.
Hopefully, someone is performing an ongoing study of 'where is the money?'
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-06-22/wall-street-week-06-21-202bloomberg
dhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-06-28/wall-street-week-06-28-2024-video
Go to the very end about the (non-) extension of the 2nd Ave. subway. It's the same EVERYWHERE in this country. Each instance has its own details and rationalizations. But the bottom line is that this country refuses to invest in state of the art, contemporary, efficient transportation infrastructure. Collapsing bridges from time to time is just a symptom. Our transportation infrastructure is dismal. A comparison with Europe leaves the USA in the dust.
Thanks @Crash for adding some comment about the show. Improves the thread. Haven’t viewed yet, but plan to.
Interesting: discussion of changes to Basel Arrangement coming. Kathryn Judge. (Columbia Law.)
Also, Economics Prof. from U of MD, Melissa Kearney, was quite interesting to hear. She's a key player in planning for the annual summertime Aspen conference.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-07-12/wall-street-week-07-12-2024-video
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-07-19/wall-street-week-07-19-2024-video
Moynihan. Tyson. Rattner is particularly lucid, smart.
Mid-cap banks on fire, past 3 weeks.
Larry Summers is high on the prospect of a Harris Presidency. He says Harris' previous push for Medicare For All is not a thing to be expected, any longer. (Bernie and AOC would have a thing or two to say about that!). Summers: The Republicans in this campaign season are pushing policies that would create a "Liz Truss Moment."
From GS: Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani. Overweight US equities. Even after such a strong recovery, STAY invested. US preeminence still holds. On an after-tax basis, equities look much better than any sort of bonds. US stocks' performance has exceeded GS expectations for the year, already. ... US national debt: biggest concern is the fiscal trajectory. No one really knows where the tipping point is, when expectations fall and the dollar tanks, in light of the size of the debt. For the foreseeable future, there is no need for major concern.
David Hunt, PGIM: a conversation re: the global macro picture.
Owen Thomas, BXP on CRE. Slow recovery since pandemic.
David Westin's "Final Thought" includes an array of merchandise which shows just how moronic people can be about where they spend their money.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-07-26/wall-street-week-07-26-2024-video
Haven’t paid close attention, but all the guests sound reasonable / rational this week.
Mike McKee started, giving a Big Picture view of developments today. Sensible, easily unpacking stuff that could be expressed in a more arcane way... He's good to listen to.
Ram Emmanuel: Amb. to Japan. A few new bits of info. Predictable, but engaging.
Kevin McCarthy. Talking up Glen Youngkin. ("great for a Cabinet post.") Trump? Mentioned that the way he puts things can be off-putting, though he is RIGHT. And the election coming up "is all about PA."
Kristin Forbes, MIT. On inflation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-02/wall-street-week-08-02-2024
Mostly a wasted show largely occupied with several mostly political interviews (thinly veiled as economic) from the summit. One exception was Robert Zoellick - a former campaign manager for George HW Bush. (Bush 1) near the end of the interviews. Fascinating. Refreshing. Really knows his stuff when it comes to politics.