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Rick Rieder (BlackRock) was saying just that on WSW when I watched it, yesterday. And he was also touting bonds, though not junk. All of the talking heads I'm hearing--- including Desai and Feeney on WSW yesterday--- rather like bonds of higher quality, because finally, investors can receive a decent yield from them.
The Bond thread was started from what was observed around the October 25 time frame with many IG bond areas indicating an oversold condition, IMHO; and worthy to start watching at that point. We'll discover how long this will hold with the battle between bond folks and the FED going into next year.
Nice lemons- Meyer, from the looks of them. We have two Meyer lemon trees- they are really nice... not nearly as much acidity as the common Eureka type.
Will buy another treasury ladder this weekend from our large cash position. Will continue to do so as one matures and rotates into the longer duration ones. Sometime next year we will dip back into bonds again.
@Sven- Best YTM at Schwab now down to 4.7 on non-callable. I'm surprised- with the negative market reaction to the Fed's announced "continuing effort" I was expecting the rates on income instruments to remain closer to 5%.
@Old_Joe, I have been checking them too at Fidelity. Next week I hope to see more CDs with higher rates. For next year I am positioning the cash position to have 4.5-5% total return and that is quite doable. This year the stocks and bonds are in red. Vanguard’s moderate allocation is down -15% ! Only the energy and commodity positions I have are in black but they requires careful monitoring.
What will next year like when the Fed reaches the terminal rate, 5.0-5.5%? I do hope the inflation would settle near 4-5% range, but that is far from the 2% target.
@Sven- Personally I think that 5.5% is too high for the long term. I'd like to see a number around 3.5 or 4%. On Schwab there are a large number of CDs which were originally in the 4.8 to 4.95 range, but which are now being offered at more than 100, bringing the YTM down to 4.7. That makes me wonder if the issuers are now expecting lower rates, at least for a while. Maybe they think the Fed is really going to pull this off.
The 5.5% is the projected rate if the Fed continues their path of rate hike. We are all guessing at this point. Yes, I have been checking the pricing since you brought it to our attention. Many non-callable 12 month CDs at Fidelity are yielding 4.6% at 100. Getting 4.7% yield is quite respectable. It would be nice if bond funds can provide that this year.
It is possible that the Fed may manage to have a soft landing. For now, the treasury yield curve is still inverted as of 12/16/22, and that indicates a coming of a recession in 2023. The 26 weeks T bill is now the sweet spot.
Update on what I've posted before at least a couple of times: current inflation is way down from the peak (actually heard someone on CBS Face the Nation this morning say this, as Krugman has been saying for a while): it fell off a cliff in mid-summer, and in the last five reports, for July-November inclusive, the annualized rate comes to 2.4%.
Looking only at year-over-year is missing the story. If the Fed is going to keep it up until YOY is down to 2%, actual current inflation at the time is likely to be near zero. And that would mean economic activity would be in the toilet.
Yes, I think that Krugman is probably right on. The folks at the Fed aren't morons either- I'm pretty sure that between all of them they won't do anything totally stupid.
Yes, I think that Krugman is probably right on. The folks at the Fed aren't morons either- I'm pretty sure that between all of them they won't do anything totally stupid.
Right, they know exactly what's going on. That last "high for longer" message may reflect that; they're nearly done but plan on leaving the rate at/near the peak for a good while to make sure inflation doesn't explode again. I can't imagine they're really going to stay hawk-y until they see YOY at 2%.
But Felix Zulauf talked about another global inflation explosion a couple of years from now in his recent interviews.
Continuing to literally just tip-toe in JRSH. Still miles and miles away from its 1-year target price that I see. It's been a fecal several days, esp. retail. And JRSH makes clothing for retail sale. No Santa Claus rally that I can see in '22!!!
I added to my BTO holding, thinking the banks are better capitalized now than in prior recessionary periods. They may be stressed in the first half of the year, but I believe that you’re well compensated with a current discount and 8.11% distribution. This fund is focused on the regional banks primarily.
I’m also looking to reenter the fixed income space, initially via preferreds. Flaherty & Crumrine Is a solid firm in that area…looking at FFC, most likely after the next rate hike.
Order for 1 & 2 year treasuries put in. Why ? Other cd's & treasuries matured . 2/3 rds of cash invested now. Looking to invest the other 1/3 in DODIX or other suggestions.
I sold DODIX and then bought a stable value fund late last year. Plan to get back into DOXIX (replaced DODIX in 401k) soon. Dodge & Cox is a good firm.
@Derf Have you access to MMKT accounts/funds where you invest, that have a portfolio in mostly U.S. gov't issues? 'Course, these don't have the FDIC coverage, but..... I mention, as many investment houses have some similar MMKT funds, relative to yields.
These two are core cash account positions at FIDO.....where one's monies move back and forth from a sale of whatever and then available for a new purchase. These are a standard part of an account; be it taxable or IRA.
FDRXX, 7 day yield = 3.83% SPAXX, 7 day yield = 3.8%
This MMKT fund must be purchased, not unlike purchasing any other mutual fund. FZDXX,7 day yield = 4.25%
Although the first two core cash choices offer a decent yield, we've moved cash monies into the FZDXX MMKT fund. The yields have had a large upward yield change this week.
Note: we've chosen to not purchase CD's.
Anyhoo.......if your cash is in a similar core cash position, you may already be receiving a decent yield.
PRTXX..... Morningstar cannot identify it. Same with google finance page. But it IS real! When I move $$$ from checking acct. to sweep acct at TRP, it goes there: PRTXX. US Treasury money.
M* DOES provide a YTD performance number, though. Silly: can't identify it, but when I give a little push, M* says, "Oh, ya. Here it is. We dunno much about this one, but YTD return is 1.33%."
almost a new year. a week away from 2023. ...NHYDY is neck-and-neck with BHB. NHYDY is up for me by +14.66%. BHB = +14.51% ytd.
YTD pain: still down handsomely, just not as bad as before: portfolio is down by -12% YTD now. Ouch. Among funds, best is PRFDX Equity Income. I bought at a good time, for a change.
Comments
Is this any good
$BOH Bank Of Hawaii
Current stock price: $74.77
PE Ratio: 13.97
Dividend yield: 3.74%
Dividend Growth Rate (5 yr): 6.08%
Payout ratio: 50.63%
Dividend history: 25 yrs
Market cap: $3.09B
EPS Growth (5 yr): 13.38%
52 week high: $89.20
Still stalking new or add-on positions in dividend-paying companies. Almost had a few orders fire on Friday, but not quite. :/
What will next year like when the Fed reaches the terminal rate, 5.0-5.5%? I do hope the inflation would settle near 4-5% range, but that is far from the 2% target.
It is possible that the Fed may manage to have a soft landing. For now, the treasury yield curve is still inverted as of 12/16/22, and that indicates a coming of a recession in 2023. The 26 weeks T bill is now the sweet spot.
Looking only at year-over-year is missing the story. If the Fed is going to keep it up until YOY is down to 2%, actual current inflation at the time is likely to be near zero. And that would mean economic activity would be in the toilet.
Family member just took job at frt, v solid reit
But Felix Zulauf talked about another global inflation explosion a couple of years from now in his recent interviews.
Couple csp and cc Tsla lcid qqq otherwise no new positions added today
Prob sit wait
This environment maybe best short terms bonds ust....
Sp500 severe resistance levels maybe near 3882 & then 3772.. The dam may break soon though
Maybe buy more for mama portfolio
Kimco realty bond tomorrow solid company mature ~4 yrs ytm 5.3 bbb+ (no BANKRUPTCY for 17 20 yrs
CUSIP 49446RAM16
Or Chase bond tomorrow
Careful dippings
Continuing to literally just tip-toe in JRSH. Still miles and miles away from its 1-year target price that I see. It's been a fecal several days, esp. retail. And JRSH makes clothing for retail sale. No Santa Claus rally that I can see in '22!!!
I’m also looking to reenter the fixed income space, initially via preferreds. Flaherty & Crumrine Is a solid firm in that area…looking at FFC, most likely after the next rate hike.
Seems there may be quite a bit of tax harvesting happening this month as 2022 comes to a disappointing end.
Ho, Ho, Ho, Derf
Plan to get back into DOXIX (replaced DODIX in 401k) soon.
Dodge & Cox is a good firm.
Have you access to MMKT accounts/funds where you invest, that have a portfolio in mostly U.S. gov't issues? 'Course, these don't have the FDIC coverage, but.....
I mention, as many investment houses have some similar MMKT funds, relative to yields.
These two are core cash account positions at FIDO.....where one's monies move back and forth from a sale of whatever and then available for a new purchase. These are a standard part of an account; be it taxable or IRA.
FDRXX, 7 day yield = 3.83%
SPAXX, 7 day yield = 3.8%
This MMKT fund must be purchased, not unlike purchasing any other mutual fund.
FZDXX,7 day yield = 4.25%
Although the first two core cash choices offer a decent yield, we've moved cash monies into the FZDXX MMKT fund.
The yields have had a large upward yield change this week.
Note: we've chosen to not purchase CD's.
Anyhoo.......if your cash is in a similar core cash position, you may already be receiving a decent yield.
Stay warm.
Catch
Same with google finance page. But it IS real! When I move $$$ from checking acct. to sweep acct at TRP, it goes there: PRTXX. US Treasury money.
M* DOES provide a YTD performance number, though. Silly: can't identify it, but when I give a little push, M* says, "Oh, ya. Here it is. We dunno much about this one, but YTD return is 1.33%."
At TRP, the 7-day yield is 4.01.
NHYDY is up for me by +14.66%. BHB = +14.51% ytd.
YTD pain: still down handsomely, just not as bad as before: portfolio is down by -12% YTD now. Ouch. Among funds, best is PRFDX Equity Income. I bought at a good time, for a change.