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If you were given X amount of dollars and asked to invest it in a mutual fund (oef or cef) or etf, which you think will appreciate most in value in the current year, which one would you select?
to roll the dice if that is what your are asking...and NOT that I am doing that...but I think the risk/reward with Hussy, HSGFX might be a time when the broken clock is correct this year. Risk/reward skew might be in the fund's favor this year.
Not a fund but kind of like one...BRK.B (full disclosure, I'm in)...$150B in cash in case it all goes to sheisse...large holder of the "religious like company, meaning Apple", railroads, banks, well run businesses'.
#1 Precious metals and miners. Silver followed by gold.
#2 I think Cathie Wood’s ARKK will rebound later this year. But probably has farther to fall first. Finishing positive for the year would be a feat, as it’s 15% down after the first 2 weeks.
Note that the question says “which you think will appreciate most in value.” I would never sink a significant sum of money into what I “think” will happen. Stay well diversified.
The question was asked light-heartedly. Just to make a decision now and come back in 12 months and see how you would have done if you actually had made the investment.
Fidelity Nat. Resources: FNARX. The climb has already begun. Less impressive y-t-d is PRNEX, TRP. .....Tough to find, without a load. JEEZ. I understand that the various brokers have arrangements to waive the load. I've never used the brokers. Oh, wait: I now have a brokerage account with TRP. I've made ONE purchase with it, and have not investigated further.
Single stock: West Fraser Timber. It's already on fire. WFG.
As the money manager Martin Zweig (no relation), who died in 2013, liked to say: “The markets will always do whatever they have to do to screw over as many people as possible.”
I'll go with an ETF that did well for me last year and I see doing well again this year with rising rates and if energy continues to make up years of poor performance. Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund - DBC.
(See @Crash’s post below) Video clip is from October 16, 1987 “Wall Street Week”.
Zweig is the first panelist interviewed (6 minutes in). He’s warning about something bad about to happen in the markets. Three days later, Black Monday October 19, stocks around the world crashed, the DJI falling about 23%.
Lou’s opening monologue is interesting. Stocks had already had a couple rough weeks. The causes attributed by Lou: (1) Rising interest rates, (2) Jitters over potential military conflict, (3) Computer driven trading, (4) Political disfunction in Washington
(I’ve removed the video link, as Crash duplicated it below)
Clip from October 16, 1987 “Wall Street Week”. Zweig is the first panelist interviewed (6 minutes in). He’s warning about something bad about to happen in the markets. Three days later, Black Monday October 19, stocks around the world crashed, the DJI falling about 23%.
Lou’s opening monologue is interesting. Stocks had already had a couple rough weeks. The causes attributed by Lou: (1) Rising interest rates, (2) Jitters over potential military conflict, (3) Computer driven trading, (4) Political disfunction in Washington
Marty Zweig. YES, I remember him on that show. My distinct impression of him was just how very sad and depressed he always sounded, whether or not what he had to offer was accurate.
Not sure but think the OP meant 1 fund but hope they won’t mind 2. One fund = VWIAX* Two funds = 40% VIG / 60% VTIP
*Didn’t know of a conservative allocation fund that invested in both dividend appreciation stocks and short-term TIPS. So yes, there’s a contradiction in my choices.
Well it would be super if #2 would go away at some point but that's just the old hippie in me. I realize greed and egotistical quests will always hold sway.
Given that those 4 items have generally been true for most of the last 40+ years, they're just background noise at this time. I suppose one could get into the weeds of the ebb and flow of those 4 items and discern whether there is any pattern but I doubt that exercise would reveal a signal that can be exploited.
The title for this thread is correct--gambling. The shorter one's investment horizon, the less risk one should be willing to take. If you need your money back in one year, i.e., by the end of 2022, then you should generally be less willing to take on too much risk. So, the question what will appreciate the most in 2022 is a bit of a trap.
Precisely Lewis. Why are you changing it? Barrons plays the same game with their round table at the start of every year. It's just for the fun of it. It's not an investment strategy.
I took the thread as a guessing game. Not intended to be serious. Suspect @Bobpa intends to pull this thread up in a year’s time and show us how far “off” our guesses are.
I’ll go farther and suggest there’s a certain amount of guessing involved in making investment decisions. Perhaps by “honing” our ability to make educated guesses, a game of this sort is all for the good. I find the wide variety of opinions from different participants fascinating and worthwhile in themselves..
But @LewisBraham’s point about the very short time horizon is spot-on. Go to cash if you’ve only got a year!
Comments
to roll the dice if that is what your are asking...and NOT that I am doing that...but I think the risk/reward with Hussy, HSGFX might be a time when the broken clock is correct this year. Risk/reward skew might be in the fund's favor this year.
Not a fund but kind of like one...BRK.B (full disclosure, I'm in)...$150B in cash in case it all goes to sheisse...large holder of the "religious like company, meaning Apple", railroads, banks, well run businesses'.
Maybe 50/50 HSGFX/BRK.B? Dunno?!
Good Luck!
Baseball Fan
#2 I think Cathie Wood’s ARKK will rebound later this year. But probably has farther to fall first. Finishing positive for the year would be a feat, as it’s 15% down after the first 2 weeks.
Note that the question says “which you think will appreciate most in value.” I would never sink a significant sum of money into what I “think” will happen. Stay well diversified.
Less impressive y-t-d is PRNEX, TRP.
.....Tough to find, without a load. JEEZ. I understand that the various brokers have arrangements to waive the load. I've never used the brokers. Oh, wait: I now have a brokerage account with TRP. I've made ONE purchase with it, and have not investigated further.
Single stock: West Fraser Timber. It's already on fire. WFG.
As the money manager Martin Zweig (no relation), who died in 2013, liked to say: “The markets will always do whatever they have to do to screw over as many people as possible.”
(See @Crash’s post below) Video clip is from October 16, 1987 “Wall Street Week”.
Zweig is the first panelist interviewed (6 minutes in). He’s warning about something bad about to happen in the markets. Three days later, Black Monday October 19, stocks around the world crashed, the DJI falling about 23%.
Lou’s opening monologue is interesting. Stocks had already had a couple rough weeks. The causes attributed by Lou: (1) Rising interest rates, (2) Jitters over potential military conflict, (3) Computer driven trading, (4) Political disfunction in Washington
(I’ve removed the video link, as Crash duplicated it below)
One fund = VWIAX*
Two funds = 40% VIG / 60% VTIP
*Didn’t know of a conservative allocation fund that invested in both dividend appreciation stocks and short-term TIPS. So yes, there’s a contradiction in my choices.
I’ll go farther and suggest there’s a certain amount of guessing involved in making investment decisions. Perhaps by “honing” our ability to make educated guesses, a game of this sort is all for the good. I find the wide variety of opinions from different participants fascinating and worthwhile in themselves..
But @LewisBraham’s point about the very short time horizon is spot-on. Go to cash if you’ve only got a year!
@FD1000 , what % of portfolio do you own ?