Thanks, David, for pointing out REMIX / BLNDX in the NOVEMBER Commentary. I used to have it on my watchlist, but apparently it had fallen off. Held up real nice in March 2020 (MAX DD of -9.3%).
Managed futures (50% of the fund) are usually a bit of a black hole in my mind, but at least "The positions can be in stocks and fixed income, as well as currencies and commodities."
If REMIX can provide annual returns somewhat similar to FMSDX, but with better downside protection, then it could be a find.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2021/11/standpoint-multi-asset-fund-forcing-me-to-reconsider/
Comments
M* says BLNDX started in 1/2020 and lost 8% during Covid, beating other hedged equity funds like JHQAX and GATEX, as you might suspect. AHLPX made money that month, however.
Another MFO hedging favorite CTFAX also lost 9%
Lots of different ways to hedge the downside, but it is hard to predict in advance which one will be most effective.
AHLPX is in the same Alternatives subcategory of "Systemic Trends" as PQTAX. Not sure of their respective managed futures exposures and portfolios could be significantly different,
That said, if it were me deciding between the two, all performance metrics I usually review would point me to selecting PQTAX over AHLPX. Volatility is not as an important a metric to me as I subscribe to the axiom of a venerable, former M* who routinely reminded us, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."
Could/would you have time to compare/contrast these two funds, especially their holdings which are a wee bit above my pay grade, and state why you would/did select AHLPX over PQTAX.
TIA and understand if not interested in responding.
Commodity, currency very hard to get right. Holdings are kind of a spaghetti bowl
Interesting fund though and appreciate professor for bringing it to our attention
Best
Baseball Fan
Would love to hear Lynn Bolin's take on this fund as well. I am continuing to look for "defensive" funds that can offer decent returns, and was happy to discover REMIX here.
TIA,
Rick
But TMSRX has averaged 6.60% annual over 3 years - if my Lipper board is to be believed. That’s ahead of most measures of inflation over that period. We’ll see how it behaves if the winds (moving equities) ever shift direction. FWIW, I balance-out TMSRX in my (33%) alternative sleeve with PRPFX and ABRZX, both of which have held their own.
This portfolio is the subject of my next MFO article.
Lynn
Thank you to both, Derf
More than you wanted to know,.
For what interest it may hold for others, at 75 I’ve gone largely to a “preservation” approach.
In a nutshell: 30-35% Growth / 30-35% Income / 30-35% Alternatives / 2-5% Speculative
Looking forward to your next MFO article..should be interesting as always....
Curious as to your thoughts for addition in the "all-weather" approach regarding funds such as:
PVCMX Palm Valley Capital Fund. Invests generally in small cap value co's, high quality, strong balance sheets, strong free cash flow, profitable co's. Not afraid to hold cash in market bubbles (whatever that means anymore) Absolute return focused.
TANDX (Castle Tandem Fund) Invests in Large cap, growing dividend payers, that are capable of growing earning regardless of economic conditions, not afraid to hold cash if need be, does not make market call to go to cash, only if can't find the appropriate value in a stock
Trying to look forward as to what may come rather than backwards look at performance, data etc.
Very intrigued by BLNDX/REMIX as mentioned by Prof David, have initiated starter position.
If you would, please define your interpretation of what "all weather" means from your viewpoint.
Is it a marketing term, maybe overused like ESG, maybe nebulous terminology or maybe not?
Mine is of a fund that you could have significant holdings of your wealth and hold thru a 30-40% drawdown in the markets, while sleeping well and having the confidence that the fund mgmt will make the right decisions over the next few years. Also, do like funds that have a succession planning in place...no funds with the boomer aged guru with no protege learning and next in line etc.
I also define as all weather fund as a fund that could compete when compared with a 45% SPY/55 SCHO ETF backwards look performance wise...most can't, no?
Best to all, I enjoy your postings, makes me think...
Baseball Fan
TMSRX is not particularly tax efficient. It is also conservative. For these reasons, I consider it ideal for some investors in their tax deferred accounts (Traditional IRAs). This is where I have it.
PVCMX and TANDX are under my radar screen as I require a $100M in assets before they hit my screens, and usually require a Fund Family Rating of 3 or higher. That said, their risk adjusted performance has been good, especially, PCVMX.
If I recall my history correctly, one of the first "All Weather" funds conceived by Harry Browne in the 1980's was the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) which did well in the 1980's but lost performance as for several reasons such as the price of gold falling. Later Ray Dalio is also known for proposing an "All Weather Portfolio".
https://wallethacks.com/ray-dalio-all-weather-portfolio/
Here is a good description:
"The All-Weather Portfolio is designed to thrive in exactly such tumultuous market environments. By maintaining specific mutually exclusive asset allocation – some would even call them boring – the All-Weather Portfolio doesn’t just preserve portfolio value but enables it to grow."
I am using the term to hold low correlation assets managed in different ways including multi-asset and multi-strategy funds. My intent is to have a portfolio with low drawdown and good risk adjusted returns.
https://wallethacks.com/ray-dalio-all-weather-portfolio/
Clear your browser history/cookies. The site link is proper.
Sorry for the slow response. I have looked at several managed futures over the years, including AHLPX AQMNX AMFAX CSAAX, but not PQTAX.
AHLPX is the clear winner with better performance ( 42% vs -3% 26% and 25% with better risk metrics than my previous choices, although PQTAX is running about equal. PTQAX has only recently caught up ( last year outperformed by 5%) by a significant outpreformance in 2021
M* still has a "human" analysis of AHLPX
"Man AHL (this strategy’s subadvisor) predominantly uses a systematic momentum-based approach that aims to profit from trends in prices across various markets and provide uncorrelated returns. The approach looks for trends across a two-month timeframe, on average, which is shorter than the typical peer in the managed futures Morningstar Category. That can reduce the strategy’s drawdowns in fast-moving markets relative to peers that are slower to adjust. The strategy’s responsiveness was on display during the first quarter of 2020, for instance, when markets took a sharp turn. It returned a healthy 7.8% during the quarter, outperforming the category average return by nearly 7 percentage points."
It is hard to determine how they differ in portfolio, and I haven't delved into that much, as up-to-date data is hard to find, and they change positions frequently.
In the past I have read that the usual reasons for these funds performance is if they guess the trend in interest rates properly.
Both seem to be better diversifiers than TMRSX as the latter fund has not delivered much with a correlation to the SP500 of .61, while managed futures are both - 0.15
Thanks for your reply. Very timely after all as I'm just starting to very to the point of deploying some funds into an alternative fund.
That was NOT a serious question. Rather...
FD1000 is a constant troll of mine who is Living in the Past (Thanks, Jethro!) , desperately trying to discredit me wherever he goes, with whatever vague, twisted memory he might still retain from years of our joint posting activity on several forums.
He appears to have no life other than his inherently flawed and underperforming Yugo Racing Scheme, while trying to sell his wares on whatever forum allows his continued participation. Sadly he somehow still however finds the time for daily trolling of my posts. If he would have just done what he daily tells "Average Joe Investor" to do, buy and hold an S&P index fund, he'd likely have twice the net worth he currently has. A tall glass of FOMO juice would have served him well. It's truly sad.
FWIW, I currently have a smallish 5-yr CD ladder yanking down 3.35% APY. All proceeds from maturing CDs over the past several years have been rolled into stocks. The ladder was started after early retirement at age 56 to bridge the Red Zone divide. It's done its job exactly as meticulously planned and has been being liquidated for several years.
For 30+ years I was 99% stocks. That dropped to ~60/40 in the coupla years prior to retirement. Since retirement I have always maintained an acceptable % in stocks but increased that to a significant % since the 2020 crash. I've posted all that several times on several forums, but somehow selective memory and ill intent can get in the way of some posters.