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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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William Bernstein at Morningstar

RbrtRbrt
in Other Investing
Great discussion! https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1028671/bill-bernstein-were-starting-to-see-all-of-the-signs-of-a-bubble
Here’s a clip”
Benz: Earlier on when we were discussing the whole bubble phenomenon, you referenced the entry of a star manager or star funds as being a characteristic of the bubble. So, I wanted to talk about the ETF, ARK Innovation, which has grabbed headlines and investor dollars over the past year. It's recently hit a rough patch of performance. What's your take on that fund?

Bernstein: Ah,here's where the parlor game comes in. And then I'll get to it when we're done with the parlor game, which is there's three of us here, and I'm going to start off with what puts me at a disadvantage, by naming a historical star manager, who was an absolute superstar who then planted their face, and then you each have to go and name your own. The last person standing is the one who wins. So, I'm going to start with the easiest one, which is Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust--readers who aren't familiar with him--know beat the S&P 500 not just over 15 years, but for 15 straight years, every single year. And people thought that he was the financial fountain of youth. And then, he lost it all within the next three years after that. That's my entrant.
Rbrt

Comments

  • MarkMark
    I don't know if he's right or wrong but it seemed to me that the only reason he believes that Ms. Woods will face plant is because other fund managers have done so. Then we have managers like Peter Lynch, Will Danoff, Joel Tillinghast and probably a host of others who have ....... what?
  • LewisBraham
    The thing is Lynch ran money in a different era when there was a lot less competition between active managers so stocks were less well analyzed and one could argue inefficiently priced. Buffett has made this argument and I believe Lynch has too. Meanwhile Danoff and Tillinghast have Fidelity’s analytical team backing them, arguably one of the largest analytical teams on the planet. That makes it a bit easier to pick stocks.
  • JD_co
    Fund managers can typically only beat the indices over the short-term, as the law of averages catches up. Sometimes a PM gets hot....and then later on, not so hot....

    Ken Heebner at CGM was briefly a god in the 1990s.
    Bill Gross was the bond king for a while. Is Mohamed El-Erian still all that?
    Rob Arnot (Pimco All Asset Authority)
    Jeffrey Vinik did ok (Fido Magellan/hedge funds)- but he cashed out in 2000.
    Bill Miller - mentioned by OP
    Bruce Berkowitz - Fairholme Fund
    Dodge & Cox fund family (still respected by many)

    Personally, I think the odds are high that Cathie Wood's ARK will flame out.

    https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/more-evidence-that-its-really-hard-to-beat-the-market-over-time-95-of-finance-professionals-cant-do-it/
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    >> Ken Heebner at CGM was briefly a god in the 1990s

    huh?
  • JD_co
    davidrmoran said:

    >> Ken Heebner at CGM was briefly a god in the 1990s

    huh?

    CGMFX was a hot fund back in the 2000s. I might have been off by a few years (or a decade) when I posted "1990s".
  • RbrtRbrt
    edited March 2021
    I think you can add Leuthold, Mulenkamp, Romick & Rodrigues at FPA, The guys at Oakmark. The guy running GIM. I think Tillinghast must have great PR people - he has been flamed out.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FLPSX,IVOO,vo
  • catch22catch22
    HuH ??? Rob Arnot (Pimco All Asset Authority)

    Which of this fund family performed to any level of quality performance?
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    Rbrt said:

    I think Tillinghast must have great PR people - he has been flamed out.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FLPSX,IVOO,vo

    uh, perhaps you have not kept up; compare FLPSX vs VOE and MCV index 1-2-3-4-5y

    (not sure those are the fairest comparisons, but whatever)

    plus you get usually a good slug of foreign stocks
  • JonGaltIII
    I think all will flame out. The question is... can you hop on the train in year 1-2-3 of a 10 plus year reign? Some of the names mentioned... Joel Tillinghast, for example, I mean he was untouchable early on with FLPSX... now? I’m not as enamored. It was a small cap then a mid cap and then... I don’t know.

    The guys at Oakmark? OAKIX was amazing for me until it wasn’t and I sold a year or 2 ago. But I looked at the fund today and almost fell off my seat. Seems M* with a 2 star is playing catch-up with that fund. Maybe they are righting the ship? Interesting discussion. Will follow.
  • MarkMark
    Hopefully nobody is delusional enough to think that a manager can hit 100%+ increases in share value year after year after year. I also hope we can agree that last year was a bonker of a year that none of us saw coming and I for one hope to not see again. If any of you can explain why the market behaved as it did please educate me because from where I stand it made no sense at all. In the meantime as long as Ms. Woods can explain why she owns the companies that she does I'm comfortable letting her manage that portion of my portfolio. I prefer to B&H but I don't deprive myself of some fun money.
  • BenWPBenWP
    My entrant is : Garrett Van Wagoner, who made his name managing Govett Smaller Companies Fund. It all went swimmingly well until 1999. Mr. Van Wagoner then struck out (sic) on his own and by 2008 had compiled the worst 10-year record among actively managed funds with his Van Wagoner Emerging Growth Fund. I doubt the term face plant was circulating at the time, but I could be mistaken.
  • Baseball_Fan
    Going oppo here...

    Seems that Steve Romick, FPA has had a great investing career...has outperformed the SP500 and VWELX with less drawdown over his tenure

    Who else has had the staying power and adaptability to roll with the times??

    Baseball Fan
  • RbrtRbrt
    Guess I should have focused on some other aspect of the interview. Once again I remember one of my favorite cartoon shorts from the 1960s:
    ** A man who proclaims to an entertainment agent his dog can talk whereas all the dog's answers are "ruff", particularly for the answers to the top of a house (roof), the owner's name (Ralph) and the greatest baseball player (Ruth). When the agent throws them out, the dog picks himself up, dusts himself off, and declares to his owner: "Maybe I should've said DiMaggio?**
  • Mona
    Rudolph-Riad Younes and Richard Pell cost me a few dollars.
  • Observant1
    edited March 2021
    Mona said:

    Rudolph-Riad Younes and Richard Pell cost me a few dollars.

    I was an investor in Julius Baer Intl Equity (later Artio Intl Equity) from 2003 - 2011.
    BJBIX outperformed its Foreign Large Blend peers for many years under the tenure of Messrs. Pell and Younes. Morningstar wrote the following about managers Richard Pell and Rudolph-Riad Younes in April 2008.
    "They have outperformed the foreign large-blend peer group in every single calendar year since they took over in 1995, and they've beaten the MSCI EAFE in all but one year."
    Yahoo Finance indicates that the fund susbsequently lagged its Foreign Large Blend peers from 2009 - 2012.
    Messrs. Pell and Younes managed the fund until May 2013.

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