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I remain firmly in the secular bull market theory camp. We're going higher. Forget about politics, civil unrest, the virus, the deficit, the economy, blah, blah, blah. Money flow, the Fed and historically-low interest rates will fuel higher prices. While each of those is extremely important in the performance of U.S. equities, here are the 3 really big reasons why I believe stocks are heading higher.
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We're in a different market environment. I've been writing about it all year. Stop fighting this bull market. I'm not talking about an advance that lasts the rest of this year....or for 2021. I'm talking about a secular bull market that will last another 10-12 years, into the 2030s.
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If you are doing that then you should enclose his words in quotation marks so others know that they are his words and not yours.
Don’t we allude to tech analysis when referencing / displaying charts appearing to demonstrate “irrational exuberance” in some asset or market that’s in a “straight up” pattern - and than inferring (usually correctly) that the asset is in a bubble and likely to fall precipitously? Though I don’t much subscribe to T/A (the investing kind) I do enjoy listening to the practitioners and think it sometimes helps me better understand market climate. FWIW
It seems to me that's somewhat irrelevant though, as applied to an individual investor like FD. If he believes in TA, and it enhances his investing success, then it's surely valid for him, at least. Whatever works.
BTY: @Old_Joe ... I was thinking somebody should take it upon themselves to track all those reported buys and sells and than issue periodic reports on how the trades are faring ... Maybe publish reports for 1-month / 6-months / and 1-year out. If you’d like to volunteer I doubt you’ll have any competition.
Bear in mind that simply buying a “winner” isn’t the whole story. What did you replace back than? Might it have actually performed better than the fund you bought?
Edit: I’ve changed “I don’t believe any claims of investing success posted here.”
TO “I don’t believe any unsubstantiated claims of investing success posted here.”
Not sure that I'd go that far. Seems highly likely that those of us who are successfully retired with no income worries have achieved a reasonable degree of "investing success", at least broadly defined to include all sources of income and assets.
I like your idea of tracking the trading posts. Looking forward to your reports on that.
I’m sure there have been others, but I’m familiar with only one board member who has thus far documented a pretty enviable track record.
https://www.amazon.com/How-Trade-Living-Gary-Smith-ebook/dp/B000WGC8ZW
plus a byline somewhere advising others about bonds and his rapid fund trading without penalty
like the poster (sorry to draw a blank) who is now making a living selling puts, or whatever it is
it's all too easy to cast a bitter dismissive eye and so difficult to be a bit more generous, esp when your internal logic is flashing warning signals that are based on your own biases and experiences and have little to do with the facts at hand. i'm as guilty of that as anyone, and i don't follow FD's suggestions without lots of my own DD. and when the march meltdown hit some of his favorites harder than expected, well, what do you expect when the levee breaks on everything all at once and you've got no place to stay and crying won't help you and praying won't do you no good? i don't blame him for that, though i know a good many do. go figure.
Then there is another “super trader” trader I knew who also liked to brag about his trading and how successful he was. He claimed he had been trading for a living for many years. He too posted a seemingly 100% winning trading record. But in CFTC Docket # xx-xx it was discovered that he had lost money trading for the previous six consecutive years.
I met another “super trader” at a seminar where I was a speaker. He was an attendee and at the time he told me how unsuccessful he had been as a trader with losses over $100,000. Less than a year later this fellow was out there bragging to everyone how he traded for a living and how successful he had been in the past. To add insult to injury many of his so called proprietary trading methods were lifted from my speech at the seminar. This fellow is still out there decades later bragging about his make believe trading prowess.
I could go on and on with multiple stories about the crooks, con men, and habitual liars that infest the trading and investing boards. They can be distinguished by their incessant non stop bragging about their trading/past trades and the fact none of them can ever back up any of their claims via real money trading statements. In the end that is all that counts. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. Their most common retort for never providing real money trading statements is “ it’s none of your business”. Posting winning trades on some investment/trading board is in no way indicative of how successful someone is at trading real money at a real trading firm.
But does it really matter? Probably not. One of the biggest bragging liars out there who was sanctioned by the SEC for fabricating his trading record once wrote a book. That book more than any trading book I ever read on trading was the most influential of them all in turning around my trading back in the mid 80s.