market up >500 pts today; any changes in plans/suggestions?

johnN

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/stock-market-nasdaq-new-york-stock-exchange-dow-jones-052620

hello
Do you folks think this is a new fierce-bull market rally or just a W recovery in hiding, will DOWS JONES reach 15k by end of summer, or 26.3k???

We did bought more/added today SPY, QQQ, vong, vanguard2045. If it continue to come down, maybe think of DCAs and buy more next 6 12 months...

My friend from working thinking of bailing out, even though that person has > 15 yrs until retirement, think got too anxious and does not want to loose more money.

I do think maybe good time to go for more cash + fixed incomes if nearing retirement and if DOWS reach 27 or 28k levels

For our household, still 90/10 in tsp distributions, no changes probably until few yrs until retirement in ~12 yrs [after considerations and careful discussions w/ Wifey-Boss]

thankyou for any suggestions...

PopTart

I have no idea which direction the market's going and neither does anyone else. The S&P 500 crossed its 200 day moving average, potentially signaling more market gains. IF these gains hold, small caps have traditionally done well coming out of recessions. I've been dca'ing into WAMCX which has been one of the few small caps funds to do well this year. I've also continued dca'ing into PRGTX, PRMTX and AKREX. Best of luck John!

Mark

As I've mentioned several times over the past few months I have confined myself to mostly "selling" into strength. My belief is that it is not the institutions or family funds (i.e. big money) which are buying but rather the Joe Six-pack folks. I guess we'll see. You might also note that the BIG-5 (Apple, Amazon, Google etc.) make up about 20% of the S&P and are the top 5 holdings. Same holds for QQQ. We also haven't seen the last of the bankruptcies and the rest of the fallout soon to come our way. That party is just beginning.

MikeM

I don't have an immediate plan but I would like to work my equity % in my self managed portfolio a bit lower. This looks like a good time to DCA out a bit.

The market has surprised the heck out of me already, but I have to believe Mr. Market is pricing in a perfect outcome to this pandemic, quick vaccine, everyone back to work, people spending as ussual. Add in a FED that will prop the stock market up as long as it can't do so anymore. I believe the highs now are just creating a bigger fall some time in the next 12 months. I'm certainly not a buyer at this point.

Level5

I’m in my 3rd year of retirement - during the 2000-2002 and 2008-09 years I was working and simply continued to dca into my/our 403bs and IRAs. I kept my head down and ran with it as buying opportunities. This time (for me) is different. With a 35/63/2 (equity/bonds/cash) allocation prior to CV-19 and feeling flush, I drank the koolaid with mad money to DSEEX, JMUTX, PIGIX, PIMIX, PCI, OPTAX, ORNAX with approximately 6% of PV. Still holding PIMIX, PIGIX, PCI, and DSEEX. I’ve looked at the loss as a learning opportunity, and will sell the others if/when they recover. My allocation sits at 30/59/11 (E/B/C) and I’m slowly deploying the cash to VBILX, VWIUX, VIG, and VTI.

rforno

One big day a trend (or market shift) does not make....

BrianW

@johnN: I too have pondered whether to take my foot off the accelerator. Prior to COVID, I could see retirement on the not-so-distant horizon. COVID temporarily erased the smile that was starting to form. I'm closed to being recovered but uncertainty is still in the air. I wanted to retire within five years, but if it has to be 10, it has to be. However, what I do know is being in Cash won't get me there. It certainly won't get me there as quickly as I'd like. I feel like Evil Kenievel in that I'm in the air and I've cleared most of the buses, but whether or not I can stick the landing remains in question. I won't go gentle into that good night. The stock market has been my vehicle for independence. I am trusting the Managers I've chosen have performed their due diligence and the companies within the funds are strong enough to make it to the other side, or have the ability to take advantage and gain market share. I may be wrong, but it is the path needed to achieve my goal. Good luck.

Crash

I'm sitting pretty. My selections are making me happy. No changes.

Sven

We also haven't seen the last of the bankruptcies and the rest of the fallout soon to come our way. That party is just beginning.

Today's up market was due to the hope of a vaccine. Question is when or if that will be found, manufactured, and distributed to the entire population before November this year.

There is already damage to the retailers and many workers will not return to their old jobs. Not so easy to expect a quick turnaround.

FD1000

Do you folks think this is a new fierce-bull market rally or just a W recovery in hiding, will DOWS JONES reach 15k by end of summer, or 26.3k???

I know exactly what will happen. The Dow will reach 26123 next week. Then, it will go to 24652 a week later. Then 22521 and finally 27365.
Wait, it was a dream

I sold before the crash, then made some successful trades in stock ETF + CEFs, back to be fully invested in bond OEFs after about 5 weeks, and continue to make money.

I write my portfolio results every week and so far in 2020 I was up every week except one where I lost -0.2%. Life is good. In the last 3 years, I never lost more than 1% from any last top.

davidrmoran

you should manage money!

linter

or at least mine!

catch22

@davidrmoran and @linter

I don't recall seeing any daily/weekly trade(s) conformation here as to what is stated by @FD1000 for his account(s) returns.

This is non-verifiable.

Today would be a good starting point until the end of the year, to verify a portfolio return for @FD1000.

Begin with..............

---holdings today

And then follow with all account trades with loss/gain data going forward to December 31 for 2020. No dollar values required, just real data.

Otherwise, this is nothing but hearsay; as with a friend of a friend told me that .......

hank

catch22 said:

Today would be a good starting point until the end of the year, to verify a portfolio return for @FD1000. Begin with.............. ---holdings today. And then follow with all account trades with loss/gain data going forward to December 31 for 2020. No dollar values required, just real data.

Good luck @Catch22. - While you’re waiting ... I can’t find any rules for attaining investing perfection. Did however, locate some rules for arriving at Moral Perfection . May be applicable to investing as well. Something to read over while you wait.


Rules for Moral Perfection - From Benjamin Franklin’s Autobiography

Temperance — Eat not to dullness; drink not to elevation.
Silence — Speak not but what may benefit others or yourself; avoid trifling conversation.
Order — Let all your things have their places; let each part of your business have its time.
Resolution — Resolve to perform what you ought; perform without fail what you resolve.
Frugality — Make no expense but to do good to others or yourself; i. e., waste nothing.
Industry — Lose no time; be always employ’d in something useful; cut off all unnecessary actions.
Sincerity — Use no hurtful deceit; think innocently and justly; and, if you speak, speak accordingly.
Justice — Wrong none by doing injuries, or omitting the benefits that are your duty.
Moderation — Avoid extremes; forbear resenting injuries so much as you think they deserve.
Cleanliness — Tolerate no uncleanliness in body, cloaths, or habitation.
Tranquility — Be not disturbed at trifles, or at accidents common or unavoidable.
Chastity
Humility — Imitate Jesus and Socrates.

https://www.accessible-archives.com/2013/11/ben-franklins-13-point-plan-attaining-moral-perfection/


davidrmoran said: “you should manage money!”

catch22

@hank
Thank you for the Franklin notes. Chastity = blank ? Hmmmm...
Did you post this list on The Donald's Twitter page?

hank

@Catch22. Ask and you shalt receive. Here’s Franklin’s comments re Chastity and a much better link and write-up as well. Wondering if the editors left it out of my earlier one on purpose? Maybe too “racy” for them? (These issues of distortion, censorship, freedom of press never cease.)

“CHASTITY. Rarely use venery but for health or offspring, never to dullness, weakness, or the injury of your own or another’s peace or reputation.”

Appreciate folks’ indulgence, as this isn’t about investing. I’ve always been fascinated by Franklin’s efforts at self improvement and his down-to-earth humble writing style.

Here’s that better link: https://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/lessons-in-manliness-benjamin-franklins-pursuit-of-the-virtuous-life/

linter

twas just kidding about FD and my moolah, and forget about him posting his trades, etc. i do take him at his word, however, as regards his returns.
meanwhile, ben f is an ancestor of mine ... and i've got the massive forehead to prove it, if not the brains behind it.

WABAC

hank said:

@Catch22. Ask and you shalt receive. Here’s Franklin’s comments re Chastity and a much better link and write-up as well. Wondering if the editors left it out of my earlier one on purpose? Maybe too “racy” for them? (These issues of distortion, censorship, freedom of press never cease.)

“CHASTITY. Rarely use venery but for health or offspring, never to dullness, weakness, or the injury of your own or another’s peace or reputation.”

Appreciate folks’ indulgence, as this isn’t about investing. I’ve always been fascinated by Franklin’s efforts at self improvement and his down-to-earth humble writing style.

Here’s that better link: https://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/lessons-in-manliness-benjamin-franklins-pursuit-of-the-virtuous-life/

His advice to a young man on conducting affairs is rather more . . . worldly.

hank

linter said:

twas just kidding about FD and my moolah, and forget about him posting his trades, etc. i do take him at his word, however, as regards his returns.
meanwhile, ben f is an ancestor of mine ... and i've got the massive forehead to prove it, if not the brains behind it.

Thanks @linter,

I’ve no reason to doubt FD1000’s word either. Everything posted here - including by me - should be taken within the context, as I think @Catch22 intended, of being non-verifiable assertion. It also needs to be considered within the context of the poster’s age and circumstance. For younger investors, a couple 10% “down years” followed by a couple 25-30% “up years” ain’t too bad. For others that might be too much volatility.

I’ve resolved in the past to reveal as little as possible here of the investments I own, recognizing that such information / comment is largely non-verifiable and possibly non-applicable to others. Like Franklin, I sometimes find resolutions difficult to keep.
-

@WABC - You just made my day with your above Franklin link. Here it is again for benefit of others: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/98062-in-all-your-amours-you-should-prefer-old-women-to / It begins, “In all your Amours you should prefer old Women to young ones ... “

Such despicable thoughts. So eloquently stated. Now, me wonders if it might have been intended as satire; while being fully aware that in life Franklin bore a rather raucous reputation, reputedly fathering several children out of wedlock.

Sven

Early this week I rebalanced out several % US equity to cash. Gradually increase gold position as I lost confidence of this irrational market -14.7% unemployment and increasing. My defensive positions in utility and REIT have been deciminated. The only position that fared better is my Total Bobd Index in 401(K) is doing well at 5% YTD return although yielding 1.48%.

bee

A T. Rowe Price Read:
An Overview of Market Resilience

On average, each of the 11 recessions since the end of World War II has lasted almost 22 months, and market recovery times have ranged from two months to a little over five-and-a-half years

Charts of previous Recessions:
https://screencast.com/t/nMBImzT5lAvV

Article:
Market_Resilience

FD1000

@catch22: I don't recall seeing any daily/weekly trade(s) conformation here as to what is stated by @FD1000 for his account(s) returns.

You don't have to believe anything I say. The chance I will post all/any of my trades are slim. The following are several points from the past.

1) I retired after 23 years after starting investing 1995-2018. It's all from savings and investing. Never got any help, stock options, or inheritance in the past or in the future.

2) In the last 3 years, my portfolio performance was above 9% average annually with SD < 2 (it's 1.91). I never lost more than 1% from any last top. My goal was to make 6+% with SD<3 which means I easily passed it.

3) My portfolio now is about 33 times our yearly expenses and we still don't take out SS.

If you think the above is a dream then I'm OK with it

davidrmoran

insanely impressive

Sven

@bee, Depending on which phase the investors are in, retirees may have have 5.5 years timeframe to recover. The recent 30% drawdown would require 47% return just to reach the break-even point.

Assuming the retirees chose a more conservative allocation, say 50/50 as they approach the retirement date, the drawdown of their portfolio would near 15% and that is more manageable. Challenge today is finding bond funds with yields north of 2% without incurring higher risk including junk and EM bonds. Even the investment grade bonds went down to 8% during the sell off in early March as investors fled to cash. The market has recovered some in recent weeks but now the trade war with China just flare up again.

hank

Just put the ball in the ref’s hands when you cross that goal line.
Just lay the bat down, touch ‘em all when you go yard for the first time…
Like you’ve been there before like it ain’t no thing like it ain’t your first trip around that block…
Roll with it don’t let it show like it ain’t your first rodeo…

Lyrics from Act Like You’ve Been There Before - Jameson Rodgers

Crash

Good-o, Hank. The antics in end zones, going back DECADES by now, only illustrates the immaturity and childishness of all who engage in it. And they get paid HOW much?????