Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Old_Skeet did a little equity buying today in a couple of good dividend paying funds with yields north of 3%. In comparison, I have the US10YrT closing with a yield of only 1.33%. I'm now leaning more towards equity than I am fixed.
mortality thus far seems mostly dependent on response of own immune system, whose overreaction appears to be what does the killing, chiefly, lung lesions and so on.
plus we will have to let the market work its magic, again
Alex Azar, Donald Trump's health secretary, has told politicians he cannot guarantee that a coronavirus vaccine will be affordable to everyone once it has been developed. Giving evidence to Congress on the administration's efforts to contain the deadly virus, Mr Azar said: "We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can't control that price, because we need the private sector to invest. Price controls won't get us there."
plus we will have to let the market work its magic, again
Alex Azar, Donald Trump's health secretary, has told politicians he cannot guarantee that a coronavirus vaccine will be affordable to everyone once it has been developed. Giving evidence to Congress on the administration's efforts to contain the deadly virus, Mr Azar said: "We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can't control that price, because we need the private sector to invest. Price controls won't get us there."
Nothing like a good pandemic to bring out the lurkers, huh?
I think Mark was spot on and most of everyone is keeping their powder dry.
The market was a ripe for a black swan type event. What, the longest bull run of how long? Mostly kept afloat by massive gov't dollar injections and the lack of anywhere else to go due to zero interest rates. Oh, and we've still got a few lively months ahead of us on the politikal scene. Enough said.
I'm not looking at making any moves right now in a serious way but geez, people, I went to the bloody mattresses after the Ides of November and have been continuing to further hunker down as time has gone by. Sure, I've got equities and equity funds but other than something that gives me a dividend, my allocations are greatly reduced. Please note that this is core portfolio and not casino money.
Where I've focused my equities is normally dividend plays that I deal with commercially (e.g. T, CMS, VZ). My long time favorite for just insane dividends is NCV. I also moved a couple of units into overseas bonds with PRMEX, PRSNX. Bought some PRLAX a while back and still have some Matthews plays with MAFTX and MCHFX (yeah, I can be crazier than many).
All y'all best be watching the metals. On the larger side, our larger long time PM fund has been SGDLX (used to be Tocqueville). This is in addition to PRPFX. I own some CEF for gold and silver exposure along with SILJ and several junior silver miners. This is where I see the serious action as the leverage with silver is much greater than with gold and they most often travel together. Also, note that right now the POG and POS are being obscured by the strength of the dollar. Gold is at an all time high in every other currency. Today Platinum hit an all time high here. If you want to play check the kitco websites for either gold or silver.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Keep your flak jackets close and your N95s closer.
Covid 19 is largely unknown and as the world has no immunity could infect almost everyone. The infection rate is estimated a two cases per contact, a bit less than regular flu, but far less than measles, so it may be slow moving but persistent.
The mortality rate seems to be lower than H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009 ( see below) but we really dont know as we can't trust Chinese statistics and the current testing methods are a bit suspect. It is unlikely the 11% seen in the H1N1 study quoted below, and I can't imagine the Chinese could have covered up 20% of 80,000 people dying but who knows. Per the JAMA article they claim overall mortality of 2.3% and 15% over 80 yo, far higher than usual flu ( less than 1% even in elderly)
"During the study period there were 1088 cases of hospitalization or death due to pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection reported in California. The median age was 27 years (range,<1-92 years) and 68% (741/1088) had risk factors for seasonal influenza complications. 31% (340/1088) required intensive care. Rapid antigen tests were falsely negative in 34% (208/618) of cases evaluated. Secondary bacterial infection was identified in 4% (46/1088).
Overall fatality was 11% (118/1088) and was highest (18%-20%) in persons aged 50 years or older. The most common causes of death were viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome"
What is not really known is the incubation period and if asymptomatic people are virus shredders and for how long.
While the 1918 pandemic deaths were largely due to pneumonia, as mentioned above, influenza frequently kills just by itself ( viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome) especially in susceptible young people whose immune system goes into overdrive.
When we get data from more reliable countries like Italy and Korea we will have a better idea of the impact especially the hospitalization rate and mortality. This will be the human costs, but the economic costs will ( have already) include direct medical expenses, supply chain disruptions, people afraid to go out and travel and shop and go to work.
What I haven't heard much of is the fact that this could be far far worse. What if this thing had Ebola's mortality rate? There is probably a bat virus out there that does so we need to reevaluate our dependence on China, excessive foreign travel, cutting biological research funding etc etc.
The virus doesn't have to be all that deadly to severely disrupt economic activity. One person gets it in a factory, then even if he eventually recovers, for a while no one's going to work. With all our intricate supply chains, even after Factory A is back to work, maybe Factory B that supplies it is now closed down, so Factory A still can't prodce. So it could keep rippling through the economy for a months. And then, of course, there's the possible hit to consumer confidence / spending, which is what the US economy runs on.
I don't know the odds of that happening, but it seems to me as plausible a scenario as assuming this will pass over in a couple weeks.
Hi @expatsp Yes, supply chain remains a very valid circumstance. One item next (1) is more timely and critical for what has already started in U.S.; and the other (2) not so much, but provides a prospective, too.
1. I don't recall exactly, but a U.S. manufacturer; reported that their (electronic product) production is okay; except for final assembly and out the door to their customers..........well, because the needed final assembled power cord is from China, they are out of this item and apparently don't have a back up supplier.
2. The NHL players, and likely semi-pro and some college level are managing the use of their hockey sticks; as the PRO/individual/custom level sticks are 75% built in China. No inbound, replacement sticks.
@rforno noted previous about reaction to the POTUS news conference.
Lastly, and related to COVID and the president's news conference Wednesday evening regarding same. By chance, I was working in a separate room and had Bloomberg tv dialed up. I decided to watch. Pretty sad. A tiny overview from the press corp questions and what is the normal wandering around a subject to distract and deflect. Blamed so-called concern with the virus towards CNN, MSNBC and Dems. and fake news. Pelosi is incompetent, etc. The link below is a short read.
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, one of the country’s leading experts on viruses and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases, told associates that the White House had instructed him not to say anything else without clearance.
As to this statement and recalled by some of the "old timers" at this forum; reading the words reminds one of the folks who brought forth the "Hammer and Sickle" society.
EDIT: Dr. Fauci has since stated that he may speak his mind and doesn't require clearance for public statements.
Tis likely that you have a site or sites you may prefer, if you're curious about changing circumstances regarding COVID-19. This news link is decent, although not fully inclusive of all changes. Note: depending upon your browser; you may have to refresh the page for the most current info (age of data shown just above first pic).
Two other sites I've been using, which are using data base graphics. You'll have to "play" with these to discover how the site functions.
BNO, Netherlands Note: site updates have slowed in the past several days.
Add: The COVID-19 remains a concern for equity investments and a likely positive for investment grade bonds, in particular U.S. gov't. issues. Events and travel continue to be curtailed, be it government or private sector. These among many other reactions from global citizens will have an impact, yes? So, GDP/growth going forward will take a hit, IMHO. No fancy math required. Consumer spending in this country is a large portion of what "makes things go 'round". A view from the past week ending is interesting. I don't know whether the "end of the month window dressing" is any longer something that active managed funds use or do. Although I suspect this attempt is no longer valid with so many other products and players in the markets, in particular, the algo driven investments. Must have been a choice of play....the large cap growth area. But, watching the U.S. equity markets on Friday had a few areas that were interesting. Mid-day on Friday found growth equity clawing its way for periods of positive direction. The top 10 positive returns for active managed U.S. equity funds on Friday for Fidelity were all large cap growth. Hmmmm.
Bonds for the past week. Although I.G. bond prices were positive for the week, a lot of the bump arrived on Friday. I expected larger price movements for all days of the week. Also, that as U.S. equity had a bump in the last 30 minutes of Friday, bonds also found some selling from profit taking or whatever ???
Not try to bash anyone but its puzzle why southern and equator countries have very low rates of incidences transmissions, maybe they like cold weather...may pans out in late spring in USA?!!
With respect to Central and South America, here are elected excerpts from a current article from the AP via the San Francisco Chronicle:
Officials in Ecuador on Saturday confirmed the first case of the new coronavirus in the South American nation, while Mexico reported two more cases and Brazil one more.
It was the second case in South America, following a Brazilian case reported on Wednesday. The Sao Paulo state health department reported another Brazilian case later on Saturday — a person who had recently visited Italy.
Mexico's Health Department said late Friday that a new case had been confirmed in Mexico City, adding to the first two confirmed cases announced earlier that day. One of those was also in the capital, and the other in the northwestern state of Sinaloa.
The governor of the northern border state of Coahuila said Saturday that federal health officials had confirmed a fourth case, in the city of Torreon: a 20-year-old woman who traveled to Europe, including Milan, Italy, in January and February and returned to Mexico in recent days.
If you don't proactively test for the virus then you have no idea if it's present or not. How many of those "Southern and equator" countries do you suppose have the resources for, and actually are, actively testing?
More cases in washington state one dating from specimen January 19th It has been circulating for weeks
None with any travel history or contact. Possibly one in RI
Faucci who is a hero for banging the drum about AIDS and has been head of NIH infectious disease institute since 1983,was scheduled for all five Sunday talk shows but was suddenly replaced by HHS secretary who is a pharmaceutical executive not a doc. Trump of course says he was not muzzled
I am curious why Faucci is going along with these orders. He is almost 80 years old and has nothing to gain and a lot to loose by cooperating too much with the Trump morons.
He must believe he can somehow influence them, and can still get out before the tar baby coats him and his stellar reputation goes down the drain.
If I were him I would have a massive press conference, call a spade a spade and dare them to publicaly fire me
So would I sma3. Human health and safety is far more important than politics or the stock market. I'm stall miffed about the heads of NOAA caving in as they did.
@sma3- I completely agree with your observations. However, in my opinion, our "president" would simply fire Faucci without a second thought and dismiss him as just another deep state anti-Trump purveyor of fake news. The majority of Trump's champions probably have no idea who Dr. Faucci is in any case.
On the "developing news" side of things, here's some excerpts from a very interesting story out of the SF Bay Area regarding "panic buying", as reported by the San Francisco Chronicle:
Supplies fly off shelves in Bay Area as coronavirus spreads
Bare shelves and frayed nerves were on full display over the weekend at Bay Area grocery stores as the coronavirus continued to spread.
Shoppers described chaotic scenes, many of which were shared on social media: stacks of rice and toilet paper snatched up within seconds, checkout lines that snaked through entire stores, and jam-packed parking lots reminiscent of Christmas Eve.
It’s the latest ripple effect of the outbreak of a still mysterious respiratory illness that in the past two months has caused more than 88,000 people around the world to fall ill. The virus that only a few weeks ago was mostly confined to China now has recorded cases in more than 60 nations.
According to figures compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the number of fatalities from the illness rose to more than 3,000 on Sunday. More than 2,800 are in China, where the outbreak originated. The first American fatality occurred Saturday in Washington state, and a second death was reported there Sunday.
With numbers climbing and no vaccine available, institutions such as the World Health Organization and the United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in recent days have warned that people should be prepared for a pandemic situation, including the possibility of having to stay confined in their homes for one or two weeks.
The results of that warning could be glimpsed in the depleted shelves and long lines in stores this weekend.
[At a local Costco] dozens of cars snaked around the block, waiting to enter the parking lot. Shoppers lugged jugs of water and emergency supplies, since there wasn’t a single shopping cart left to grab.
It will be interesting to see how or if this reaction develops nationwide, and note the stresses that it might place on the national grocery distribution channels.
Note: The San Francisco Chronicle has no paywall, and should be accessible via the above link.
Hi @Old_Joe Last Friday noon time I was on a normal grocery shopping trip. I stopped at two very large stores; and in both cases spent about 15 minutes wandering (watching) the aisle areas where hand sanitizer and related are located. In both stores the carts in those areas contained the sanitizer, latex or similar gloves and standard face masks. An interesting watch, as well as the conversations in the area, too.
Interesting summaries regarding coronavirus...maybe dreadful volatile market/slowed world economies for ??? 8 or 16 wks, more downfalls perhaps. Took china 6 - 8 wks to handle the problems...
Dows maybe loosing 10 to 25% more imho
Time to research/buckle up /buy more good qualities bonds perhaps
@johnN Well, 4-8 weeks seems way too conservative, unless there is absolute positive proof that COVID-19 is fully inactive and there will be no more transmission or the discovery that those who slug Red Bull daily are found to be immune. As to China going back to work and fulfilling the needs of the world economies; well, if one wants to follow one form of evidence, I suggest saving this site and performing updates for viewing. Good Evening, Catch
Comments
Dow futs -270, SPX -32 at 9:40PM. Guess the sane world and markets didn't get any reassurance from what Tweety Amin had to say tonight, huh?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/19/how-coronavirus-kills/
pneumonias yes also, so be sure you are up on pneumvax and prevnar.
in general not adequate medical care, so far as we know.
what would that be, short of a vaccine ?
Derf
vaccine will be as expedited as possible, so perhaps a matter of (many) months
Alex Azar, Donald Trump's health secretary, has told politicians he cannot guarantee that a coronavirus vaccine will be affordable to everyone once it has been developed.
Giving evidence to Congress on the administration's efforts to contain the deadly virus, Mr Azar said: "We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can't control that price, because we need the private sector to invest. Price controls won't get us there."
Well, Azar did come from big pharma, so .... gotta give back to one's family, right? *grumble*
Nothing like a good pandemic to bring out the lurkers, huh?
I think Mark was spot on and most of everyone is keeping their powder dry.
The market was a ripe for a black swan type event. What, the longest bull run of how long? Mostly kept afloat by massive gov't dollar injections and the lack of anywhere else to go due to zero interest rates. Oh, and we've still got a few lively months ahead of us on the politikal scene. Enough said.
I'm not looking at making any moves right now in a serious way but geez, people, I went to the bloody mattresses after the Ides of November and have been continuing to further hunker down as time has gone by. Sure, I've got equities and equity funds but other than something that gives me a dividend, my allocations are greatly reduced. Please note that this is core portfolio and not casino money.
Where I've focused my equities is normally dividend plays that I deal with commercially (e.g. T, CMS, VZ). My long time favorite for just insane dividends is NCV. I also moved a couple of units into overseas bonds with PRMEX, PRSNX. Bought some PRLAX a while back and still have some Matthews plays with MAFTX and MCHFX (yeah, I can be crazier than many).
All y'all best be watching the metals. On the larger side, our larger long time PM fund has been SGDLX (used to be Tocqueville). This is in addition to PRPFX. I own some CEF for gold and silver exposure along with SILJ and several junior silver miners. This is where I see the serious action as the leverage with silver is much greater than with gold and they most often travel together. Also, note that right now the POG and POS are being obscured by the strength of the dollar. Gold is at an all time high in every other currency. Today Platinum hit an all time high here. If you want to play check the kitco websites for either gold or silver.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Keep your flak jackets close and your N95s closer.
SPX is well on its way to hit price levels from July 2019.
1.3M SPX eminis moved already by 945 this morning. To me that suggests right now is more panic than rational hedging. But that's just one opinion.
Urge to start nibbling rising.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
Covid 19 is largely unknown and as the world has no immunity could infect almost everyone. The infection rate is estimated a two cases per contact, a bit less than regular flu, but far less than measles, so it may be slow moving but persistent.
The mortality rate seems to be lower than H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009 ( see below) but we really dont know as we can't trust Chinese statistics and the current testing methods are a bit suspect. It is unlikely the 11% seen in the H1N1 study quoted below, and I can't imagine the Chinese could have covered up 20% of 80,000 people dying but who knows. Per the JAMA article they claim overall mortality of 2.3% and 15% over 80 yo, far higher than usual flu ( less than 1% even in elderly)
"During the study period there were 1088 cases of hospitalization or death due to pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection reported in California. The median age was 27 years (range,<1-92 years) and 68% (741/1088) had risk factors for seasonal influenza complications. 31% (340/1088) required intensive care. Rapid antigen tests were falsely negative in 34% (208/618) of cases evaluated. Secondary bacterial infection was identified in 4% (46/1088).
Overall fatality was 11% (118/1088) and was highest (18%-20%) in persons aged 50 years or older. The most common causes of death were viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome"
What is not really known is the incubation period and if asymptomatic people are virus shredders and for how long.
While the 1918 pandemic deaths were largely due to pneumonia, as mentioned above, influenza frequently kills just by itself ( viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome) especially in susceptible young people whose immune system goes into overdrive.
When we get data from more reliable countries like Italy and Korea we will have a better idea of the impact especially the hospitalization rate and mortality. This will be the human costs, but the economic costs will ( have already) include direct medical expenses, supply chain disruptions, people afraid to go out and travel and shop and go to work.
What I haven't heard much of is the fact that this could be far far worse. What if this thing had Ebola's mortality rate? There is probably a bat virus out there that does so we need to reevaluate our dependence on China, excessive foreign travel, cutting biological research funding etc etc.
I don't know the odds of that happening, but it seems to me as plausible a scenario as assuming this will pass over in a couple weeks.
Yes, supply chain remains a very valid circumstance. One item next (1) is more timely and critical for what has already started in U.S.; and the other (2) not so much, but provides a prospective, too.
1. I don't recall exactly, but a U.S. manufacturer; reported that their (electronic product) production is okay; except for final assembly and out the door to their customers..........well, because the needed final assembled power cord is from China, they are out of this item and apparently don't have a back up supplier.
2. The NHL players, and likely semi-pro and some college level are managing the use of their hockey sticks; as the PRO/individual/custom level sticks are 75% built in China. No inbound, replacement sticks.
@rforno noted previous about reaction to the POTUS news conference.
Lastly, and related to COVID and the president's news conference Wednesday evening regarding same. By chance, I was working in a separate room and had Bloomberg tv dialed up. I decided to watch. Pretty sad. A tiny overview from the press corp questions and what is the normal wandering around a subject to distract and deflect. Blamed so-called concern with the virus towards CNN, MSNBC and Dems. and fake news. Pelosi is incompetent, etc. The link below is a short read.
A few of the words from the conference.
Take care,
Catch
Engage Information Suppression Engine
The below except: As to this statement and recalled by some of the "old timers" at this forum; reading the words reminds one of the folks who brought forth the "Hammer and Sickle" society.
EDIT: Dr. Fauci has since stated that he may speak his mind and doesn't require clearance for public statements.
This news link is decent, although not fully inclusive of all changes. Note: depending upon your browser; you may have to refresh the page for the most current info (age of data shown just above first pic).
Two other sites I've been using, which are using data base graphics. You'll have to "play" with these to discover how the site functions.
John Hopkins
BNO, Netherlands Note: site updates have slowed in the past several days.
Add: The COVID-19 remains a concern for equity investments and a likely positive for investment grade bonds, in particular U.S. gov't. issues. Events and travel continue to be curtailed, be it government or private sector. These among many other reactions from global citizens will have an impact, yes? So, GDP/growth going forward will take a hit, IMHO. No fancy math required. Consumer spending in this country is a large portion of what "makes things go 'round".
A view from the past week ending is interesting. I don't know whether the "end of the month window dressing" is any longer something that active managed funds use or do. Although I suspect this attempt is no longer valid with so many other products and players in the markets, in particular, the algo driven investments. Must have been a choice of play....the large cap growth area. But, watching the U.S. equity markets on Friday had a few areas that were interesting. Mid-day on Friday found growth equity clawing its way for periods of positive direction.
The top 10 positive returns for active managed U.S. equity funds on Friday for Fidelity were all large cap growth. Hmmmm.
Bonds for the past week. Although I.G. bond prices were positive for the week, a lot of the bump arrived on Friday. I expected larger price movements for all days of the week. Also, that as U.S. equity had a bump in the last 30 minutes of Friday, bonds also found some selling from profit taking or whatever ???
Also, that China is supposedly opening some manufacturing. 'Course, who knows.
Be well,
Catch
Government COVID-19 plan
More cases in washington state one dating from specimen January 19th It has been circulating for weeks
None with any travel history or contact. Possibly one in RI
Faucci who is a hero for banging the drum about AIDS and has been head of NIH infectious disease institute since 1983,was scheduled for all five Sunday talk shows but was suddenly replaced by HHS secretary who is a pharmaceutical executive not a doc. Trump of course says he was not muzzled
I am curious why Faucci is going along with these orders. He is almost 80 years old and has nothing to gain and a lot to loose by cooperating too much with the Trump morons.
He must believe he can somehow influence them, and can still get out before the tar baby coats him and his stellar reputation goes down the drain.
If I were him I would have a massive press conference, call a spade a spade and dare them to publicaly fire me
More than 1/5ths trump voters maybe out by end of may,/june
Trump Biden bernie Bloomberg may be gone, high exposures to crowded areas
Note: The San Francisco Chronicle has no paywall, and should be accessible via the above link.
Last Friday noon time I was on a normal grocery shopping trip. I stopped at two very large stores; and in both cases spent about 15 minutes wandering (watching) the aisle areas where hand sanitizer and related are located. In both stores the carts in those areas contained the sanitizer, latex or similar gloves and standard face masks.
An interesting watch, as well as the conversations in the area, too.
https://apnews.com/435cb3786f0d6692c8143a07e29c3e79
Interesting summaries regarding coronavirus...maybe dreadful volatile market/slowed world economies for ??? 8 or 16 wks, more downfalls perhaps. Took china 6 - 8 wks to handle the problems...
Dows maybe loosing 10 to 25% more imho
Time to research/buckle up /buy more good qualities bonds perhaps
Well, 4-8 weeks seems way too conservative, unless there is absolute positive proof that COVID-19 is fully inactive and there will be no more transmission or the discovery that those who slug Red Bull daily are found to be immune.
As to China going back to work and fulfilling the needs of the world economies; well, if one wants to follow one form of evidence, I suggest saving this site and performing updates for viewing.
Good Evening,
Catch