@msf,
The link you posted by Robin Powell stated the following:

1. Tactical allocation funds had an average expense ratio of 1.39% (they are very expensive) and an average turnover of 289% (trading costs are high and tax efficiency is low).
2. TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash.
3. TAA funds underperformed all benchmark indexes and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance. The average TAA fund had cumulative returns of 215% versus 486% for P1 and 406% for P2. They even underperformed the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, which returned 242%.
4. TAA funds produced an average Sharpe ratio of just 0.10 versus 0.17 for P1 and 0.15 for P2. Their Sortino ratio (a measure of downside risk) was also much lower, at 0.14 versus 0.25 for P1 and 0.22 for P2.
5. Benchmarked against a seven-factor asset pricing model (the four Fama-French-Carhart factors of beta, size, value and momentum plus factors for foreign equities and domestic and international bonds), TAA funds had a highly significant (t-stat = 4.6) negative monthly alpha of -0.16 over the entire period. The negative monthly alpha was even worse, at -0.20% (t-stat = 5.2), over the period beginning in 2004.
6. TAA funds failed when needed most, during the Great Financial Crisis — over the period 10/2007-3/2009, they produced a negative monthly alpha of -0.37% (t-stat = 2.7).
It concluded that “Our findings indicate that tactical allocation funds did not outperform the benchmarks, and investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.”
Am I missing something on this tread?

Facts as presented are unclear.
If a mutual fund order is entered BEFORE 4 PM Eastern market close (beware that some brokers may have earlier cutoffs, but none of the major ones do now), you will get the closing NAV of THAT day. BTW, I have successfully entered mutual fund orders as close as 3:58 PM or 3:59 PM at multiple sites, but that is cutting it too close - any network disruption or transmission issue can cause order failure.
Settlement is only when the funds are due for the trade (T+1 for mutual funds, T+2 for stocks/ETFs/CEFs). Prices/NAVs are never set on settlement dates. If that does happen, report to the SEC or FINRA.
In cash accounts, Fido, Schwab, etc don't allow order entry without settled cash in core/settlement account, but Vanguard does with a prominent warning on when funds are due. Margin accounts don't have this issue.

The settlement date for shares purchased on 12/8 was 12/11. Settlement date for shares purchased on 1/5 was 1/8. Both purchases occurred on a Friday, well before market closing. Both purchases did not settle until closing prices on Monday. In every transaction I can recall at Fidelity, if I purchased a fund before market closing, the settlement price was the closing price on the day of purchase.
In the long run, it’s no big deal. However, it’s irksome because the fund had a nice gain on Monday, which I missed. It should have been a rare instance in which a fund that I bought had a nice gain the first day after purchase. Usually I’m not so lucky, so I guess my bad luck is holding.
The bigger issue for me is that it seems to be another example of eroding customer service at TRP, assuming the problem was on their end. I have sold a number of TRP funds over the past year because of declining performance and this is another straw on the camel’s back.

Truth! They are gambling with lives. No one can say it's a mix-up, like the Air Canada plane that ran out of gas and had to do an emergency landing at a retired military airstrip in Manitoba, which was by then being used for drag-racing at the time. Why? it was a mistake regarding the switch from Imperial gallons to liters as the new standard measurement. 40 years ago.
https://www.cbc.ca/archives/when-a-metric-mix-up-led-to-the-gimli-glider-emergency-1.4754039

FYI, I purchased shares in PRCFX 12/8/23 and 1/4/24 through Fidelity. Both transactions took 3-4 days to settle. I’ve never had a fund purchase take so long to settle since I’ve been doing transactions online. I plan to speak to someone at Fidelity about the reasons for this, as I missed at least one day of gains. I don’t know if the transaction would have been delayed so long if conducted at the TRP website, but I haven’t encountered such problems with other third party fund purchases at Fidelity. This is something that others might want to be aware of if considering this fund.

Glad you told us about that! Stinky, maybe even poopy, too. I do all my trades at TRP. They are "threatening" to put forward a website upgrade. Oh Joy! Oh Rapture! TRP fund entry minimums are $2,500.00. All others require an initial $5,000.00.

12/8/23 was Friday. T+1 settlement would be Monday, 12/11/23.
1/4/23 was Thursday. T+1 settlement would be Friday, 1/5/23.
This assuming that orders were in BEFORE 4 PM Eastern.
If AFTER 4 PM, then dates would be 12/12/23 and 1/8/23.

SMH etf, VanEck, Semi Conductors, 26 holdings as of today, Jan. 8.
--- +73.4% in 2023 and it was down -5 last week, but strong again today at +3.5%, with other tech. advancing, too (Jan. 8)
I/we prefer 10% of the portfolio for a holding to be meaningful for either the positive or negative affect. Perhaps some dollar cost averaging, in 2% chunks. Magic 8 Ball is awaiting parts. But I can make hand drawn dart board.
So many have to have the chips and their related vendors, eh?
Gonna watch a football game first with a game snack of Michigan 'Jiffy Mix' corn bread. :)

Ticker	Holding Name	% of Net Assets	 
NVDA US	Nvidia Corp	20.35
TSM US	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co 	9.12	
AVGO US	Broadcom Inc	6.02	
AMD US	Advanced Micro Devices Inc	5.59	
INTC US	Intel Corp	5.36	
ASML US	Asml Holding Nv	4.79	
TXN US	Texas Instruments Inc	4.49	
LRCX US	Lam Research Corp	4.47	
QCOM US	Qualcomm Inc	4.46	
ADI US	Analog Devices Inc	4.38	
AMAT US	Applied Materials Inc	4.37	
MU US	Micron Technology Inc	4.02	
SNPS US	Synopsys Inc	3.62	
KLAC US	Kla Corp	3.55	
CDNS US	Cadence Design Systems Inc	3.21	
NXPI US	Nxp Semiconductors Nv	2.23	
MCHP US	Microchip Technology Inc	2.10	
MRVL US	Marvell Technology Inc	1.91	
STM US	Stmicroelectronics Nv	1.38	
ON US	On Semiconductor Corp	1.26	
MPWR US	Monolithic Power Systems Inc	1.08	
SWKS US	Skyworks Solutions Inc	0.77	
TER US	Teradyne Inc	0.62	
QRVO US	Qorvo Inc	0.46	
OLED US	Universal Display Corp	0.38	
USD CASH-		-0.01		-
Other/Cash	0.04	--

The Year in Charts (01/07/24)
These were the charts and themes that told the story of 2023...
00:00 Intro
00:15 The Wall of Worry
02:55 The Pain Trade
04:35 A Run on the Bank
09:36 A Different Kind of Fed
14:06 AI Exuberance
18:03 The Magnificent Seven
20:19 The Sky's the Limit
23:38 The Recession that Never Came
26:38 The Earnings Comeback
28:18 A Frozen Housing Market
32:20 Back on the Path to Prosperity
36:32 A Rally for the Ages
42:18 The Polar Opposite of 2022
45:06 Triumph of the Optimists
49:41 What Comes Next?
Video
Blog

Not all investors will hold to maturity; not all notes and bonds mature at the same time within that year; and then there are the potential defaults (corporates of course). The portfolio would need to continue buying additional corporate notes/bonds, perhaps at lower rates.
Consider just two investors and a single CUSIP. Investor 1 buys in now, investor 2 in a year.
We'll start off as simple as possible. Let's say the current market rate on a 3 year Treasury is 4%, and the underlying Treasury bonds, maturing in 3 years have 4% coupons. So they trade at par. Let's also say that the ETF shares are $100/share.
Investor 1 comes in an invests $10,000. That's 100 shares, buying 10 bonds at par in the underlying portfolio.
A year goes by. We'll assume that the yield at that moment on 2 year treasuries is 3.5%. Shorter term bonds typically have lower yields, or perhaps all rates dropped over that year. The reason doesn't really matter.
A two year bond with a 4% coupon and a YTM of 3.5% is priced at 100.9577. You can find that with a calculator, e.g. Fidelity's, and you can verify it with EXCEL:
EXCEL function: YIELD(DATE(2024,1,1), DATE(2026,1,1), 4%, 100.9577, 100, 2)
Because the underlying bonds have appreciated from 100 to 100.9577, the share price has likewise appreciated from $100 to $100.9577.
Investor 2 comes in and buys 100 shares for $10,095.77. Keep in mind that the YTM at the time is 3.5%. Now each investor owns 100 shares.
At maturity, Investor 1 has received three years worth of coupons at a rate of 4% and gets back the original $10,000 investment when the bonds mature and the fund is liquidated. That's your basic 4% yield. The fact that Investor 2 bought additional shares at a higher price (lower yield) had no effect.
At maturity, Investor 2 has received two years worth of coupons at a rate of 4%, but gets back $95.77 less than the original investment. That's because the investor bought the bonds at a premium.
The YTM that Investor 2 received was 3.5% - just what the market rate on two year bonds was when the investment was made. See the EXCEL expression above. In short, having to buy or sell bonds shouldn't affect the fund's behavior. That's unlike "normal" Treasury bond funds where trading can alter the portfolio's average maturity. (In corporate bond funds, trading can also affect credit quality and risk.)
The fact that the bonds mature over a period of a year can somewhat reduce yield. In that last year, as bonds mature their proceeds are held as cash (think 3 mo Treasuries) which should yield somewhat less than 12 mo Treasuries. Or as the prospectus puts it:

Declining Yield Risk. During the six months prior to the Fund’s planned termination date, the Fund’s yield will generally tend to move toward prevailing money market rates and may be lower than the yields of the bonds previously held by the Fund and lower than prevailing yields for bonds in the market.

@Level5- Thanks much- I will definitely check that out.

@Old_Joe - Here’s a related post from the bogleheads…
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=374405
There had been a good deal of discussion there regarding defined maturity bond etfs.

Thanks, @Level5- every little bit of info helps on this.

Actively managed funds with the largest inflows/outflows through November 2023 are listed below.
Data from Morningstar Fund Investor (Jan. 2024).
Largest Inflows
JPMorgan Large Cap Growth (OLGAX) $20.0B
Pimco Income (PONAX) $14.0B
JPMorgan Core Bond (PGBOX) $8.2B
Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX) $7.3B
Baird Aggregate Bond (BAGIX) $5.7B
American Funds Bond Fund of America (BFAFX) $5.7B
T. Rowe Price U.S. Large-Cap Core (TRULX) $4.9B
Goldman Sachs GQG Partners International Opportunities (GSIHX) $4.6B
MFS International Equity (MIEJX) $4.5B
Largest Outflows
T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX) $16.3B
American Funds Growth Fund of America (AGTHX) $15.0B
T. Rowe Price Growth Stock (PRGFX) $10.7B
American Funds EuroPacific Growth (AEPGX) $9.5B
Metropolitan West Total Return Bond (MWTRX) $9.3B
Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX) $8.3B
Vanguard Wellington (VWENX) $7.4B
Lord Abbett Short Duration Income (LALDX) $7.2B
Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade (VFSUX) $6.9B
Strategic Advisers Large Cap(FALCX) $6.8B

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site through December using Refinitiv's data drop dated 5 January. Month to date numbers mixed. Tech off 4.3%, heathy up 2, SPY off 1.6. A bit of a letdown after the strong year-end numbers. Core bonds off 1.1.

The tax deferral of T-bills depends not only on the fact that interest isn't paid until maturity but also that they mature in not more than 12 months.
People are generally aware that if they buy zero coupon bonds, interest is imputed and taxes owed yearly. The exception is for any debt instrument (not just bonds) with a maturity date not more than one year from date of issue. That's practically the definition of a T-bill. Likewise, interest is not imputed on CDs that mature in 12 months or less.
https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-smarter-mutual-fund-investor/articles/2017-03-03/4-tax-considerations-for-cd-investors
I believe the part of the tax code that exempts short-term maturities from imputed interest is 26 USC §1272(a)(2)(C). In essence, as yogi described, the debt instruments (including CDs) are viewed as being sold at a discount. From a tax perspective, it's not that you buy a $1000 CD and get $1050 in a year, but rather that you are buying a $1050 CD at a discount price of $1000.
Sort of like buying gasoline with a cash discount.

Asset Allocation & Withdrawal Strategies in Retirement – Bolin
There is an interesting article by Charles Lynn Bolin ( @lynnbolin2021 ) on withdrawals in the January 2024 MFO issue. In the SUPPLEMENTARY information presented here, portfolio # won’t be used as they can cause confusion.
In Bolin’s Table #1 with 4 portfolios tested with 6% withdrawal rates, be aware that those are 6% withdrawals from the YEAREND balances every year. So, the amounts withdrawn will fluctuate widely with the market. The residual balances are shown in Figure #1 to indicate whether those kept up with inflation.
Interestingly, PV has a parameter PWR (under the Metrics tab) that provides max % withdrawals from YEAREND balances that will also leave inflation-adjusted residual at the end.
A reference is made to “the time-tested 4%”, but that so-called Bengen’s Rule has a different withdrawal regime – 4% of the INITIAL lump-sum that is subsequently adjusted annually for inflation; the PV run settings also allow for this and the related PV metric SWR is the max % withdrawal in this scenario (that will EXHAUST the portfolio).
One can also deduce from the PV run data the max % of the INITIAL lump-sum that is subsequently adjusted annually for inflation AND leaves inflation-adjusted initial lump-sum at the end, and that % is SWRM.
The table below shows PWRs, SWRs, SWRMs.
Portfolio; PWR; SWR; SWRM
50%VFINX + 50%VTRIX; 5.59%; 7.71%; 6.79%
70%VFINX + 25%VBMFX; 5.92%; 7.77%; 6.96%
50%VFINX + 25%VTRIX + 25%VBMFX; 5.40%; 7.46%; 6.50%
VFINX; 7.06%; 8.77%; 8.19%
Bolin’s conclusions about inflation adjusted residual balances are consistent with whether the PWR is less than, or greater than, 6% in the table above. It is also interesting that all could support Bengen-style 4% (w/COLA) and even higher (note SWRs). In fact, all would leave more than inflation-adjusted initial lump-sum even with 6% w/COLA (note SWRMs).
Of course, all the data and conclusions are for the period 01/1987-12/2023.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/01/asset-allocation-and-withdrawal-strategies-in-retirement/

Msf,
If one had millions in T-bills, couldn’t they be subject to fee if they didn’t withhold 90% of taxes due? If so, the taxes due are not in April 2025, rather quarterly estimated payments?

Hi @WABAC The short trade week seemed to start with money moving to some of the laggards from 2023; but I don't find much to have held. One week into this new year after 2023's large run in growth and tech. can't be used to measure right now, IMHO. A lot of the growth/tech. etf's ranged from -3 to -5% to start the year. Although our house remains a tech. holdings bias. The only positive we have this past week is FHLC, Fido healthcare etf at +1.5%.
Our senior citizen(s) portfolio is at:
--- 43%, MMKT***
--- 38%, Equity; growth/tech./health related
--- 19%, IG bond fund
*** Core Fido MMKT's = 5.01% average; one mmkt that must be purchased is FZDXX, that has a yield of 5.21%. We've thought about chasing MINT, etf, Pimco enhanced ultra short duration that returned +6.25% in 2023. The etf is on that performance path at this time, for 2024; starting the year at +.12% for the week. Too much going on right now, so we'll remain with holdings for a bit.
Regards,
Catch

Thanks Charles. I'd be glad to chat with you about some thoughts, though I just got down this rabbit hole responding to a comment that using raw data might not be circumventing a screener. Your post now addresses that in crystal clear terms:

We also have a link to an excel file with performance summary of all funds, oldest share class only ... about 15,000 funds. I know some subscribers just prefer that link! Spreadsheet style

No muss, no fuss, just circumventing all tools.
If I were still really deep into data analysis, I'd likely import that spreadsheet into a DBMS. These days I've got better things to do with my time: going on a river cruise out to the Black Sea, researching a trans-Canada railway trip, fighting with my insurance company on the network status of my healthcare providers (the insurer has processed over half of them incorrectly).