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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Don’t Follow The Crowd Into The Wrong Index Funds
    As to Europe.......
    We investors know there are "days in the sun" for every investment; above other investment choices. We also understand that the "days in the sun" run their own paths and lengths based upon any number of factors.
    These price trends in either direction have their own shelf-life.
    For too many years beyond what I expected, the Euro/US currency ratio remained at $1.25 range average. I wondered why many times; but it was the fact and the reason was beyond my ability to define.
    This circumstance began to change in the past several months. The Euro now only costs about $1.08 U.S. I expect further value loss in the Euro v. the U.S. dollar; in order to "help" with Euroland exports.
    Relative to this, the below Euro-area indexes/etfs reflect price action YTD.
    One may conclude their own opinion as to whether a "hedged currency" position is/was valid, so far.....
    Several country funds have been included in this list as other reference points.
    HEDJ Wisdomtree International Hedged Equity Fund +17.01%
    VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF +3.84%
    EZU iShares MSCI EMU Index Fund +4.60%
    EWG iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund +5.95%
    FEZ SPDR DJ EURO STOXX 50 ETF +3.58%
    EWU iShares MSCI UK Index Fund +2.83%
    IEV iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fund +3.79%
    DBEU Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Europe Hedged Equity ETF +10.83%
    EWP iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund -3.21%
    EWL iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund +3.16%
    HEWG iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Germany ETF +17.17%
    FEEU FI Enhanced Europe 50 ETN +5.09%
    EWI iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund +5.59%
    DFE WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund +7.34%
    IEUR iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF +3.84%
    HEZU Currency Hedged MSCI EMU ETF +15.40%
    EWD iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund +5.75%
    EWQ iShares MSCI France Index Fund +4.71%
    FEP First Trust Europe AlphaDEX Fund +5.21%
    FEU SPDR DJ STOXX 50 ETF +3.36%
    Lastly, is this finally Europe's "day in the sun" for investment returns? Note: we're invested in HEDJ and plan to add as circumstances dictate.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Big Winners And Losers In The Markets Yesterday
    Several managed futures funds went up. PQTIX up .36% AHLPX up .35%. EBHIX up 1.02%. EBSPX up .90%.
  • Vanguard: Estimated 2014 Supplemental Fund Distributions
    FYI: The Vanguard funds listed below earned taxable income and/or realized capital gains for their fiscal years ended December 31, 2014 or January 31, 2015, that were greater than the amounts distributed in December 2014. The remaining taxable income or gains will be distributed in March 2015 as "supplemental" income dividends or capital gains distributions.
    Note: These supplemental fund distributions will be reported on 2015 tax forms. Vanguard will not generate updated tax forms for 2014. The gains reported here are taxable for the year during which they are declared
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/supplemental-fund-distributions-032015
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    @rjb112
    I had a fund too that has failed to update. And, that is LBNDX.
    Old_Skeet
    Let's get this documented:
    image
  • Why Did Real Estate Get Hit So Hard Friday Mar 6?
    The real estate fund that I own FRINX usually performs better than it’s category average during market declines. On a TTM basis it has a yield of about 4.5% and has placed in the top 20% within its category for the past thirty days.
    I have provided a link for those that would like to have a look.
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/frinx/f?t=frinx
    Old_Skeet
  • Why Did Real Estate Get Hit So Hard Friday Mar 6?
    Some discussion of potential higher rates having an effect, but as I noted in another thread, was a good article on seekingalpha discussing how some interest rate sensitive fixed income wasn't really all that moved. The article noted that REITs (and utilities) were overdone to the upside and I'd agree with that strongly - as I've noted on this board many times recently - you were going to get a pullback in REITs and that they were overbought (or way overbought.) I think it was entirely a reach for yield.
    I definitely think there is more downside for some names that I follow. I own a number of real estate companies, although not all are "straight up" REITs.
    My post from another thread:
    "I've been staying that REITs will pull back and you're getting what may be the start of that. I don't think that I will be adding any new positions in terms of real estate, as I've been adding to real estate plays that have not gotten the same coverage or are not REITs or are unique in some other manner (CLNY/Colony Financial, HHC/Howard Hughes, BPY/Brookfield Property, KW/Kennedy Wilson) that haven't taken off to the same degree that many of the straight up REITs have.
    CLNY (which is sort of a REIT hybrid) is merging with its parent this year (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-11-05/barrack-s-colony-units-to-combine-under-colony-financial), HHC (which is real estate but does not offer a dividend and is not a REIT) was wrecked (at least until recently) because of a view that it was exposed to oil (it is, but not nearly as badly as I think people thought) and BPY is an MLP that is a fascinating and giant/complex real estate vehicle still trading below book, despite a pretty decent move in recent months.
    Kennedy Wilson (KW) is a unique little vertically integrated real estate company, complete with real estate services (property management, auctions and more) as well as diversified global real estate investments. It's an interesting, very opportunistic little global company that gets not much coverage but has a substantial investment from famed Canadian investor Prem Watsa of Fairfax (11.1M convertible pfds.)
    The one that I thought about a few weeks ago and regret missing is Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL).
    STWD is another holding, which I like due to skilled management and the fact that many of their loans are floating rate. The company has discussed in the recent past that rising rates will be a positive to their bottom line. Of course, the market will just throw it out anyways because it's real estate.
    Also, I have real estate exposure elsewhere in other REITs and things like Blackstone, Oaktree, Jardine, Hutchison and other companies."
    -------------------------------------------
    Also:
    "http://seekingalpha.com/article/2981816-fridays-sell-off-assessing-the-damage-and-opportunities
    "With that said, selected market segments took Friday's decline disproportionately on the chin. Leading on the downside within the U.S. stock market were those categories that would likely be most sensitive to the potential for increased interest rates in the coming months. This includes utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) and REITs (NYSEARCA:VNQ), which despite their traditionally defensive characteristics in down markets declined on Friday by a jarring -3.00% and -3.32%, respectively. One could naturally conclude that these declines were in direct response to the potential for rising rates. But if this was the case, why then did other highly interest rate sensitive categories such as high yield bonds (NYSEARCA:HYG), senior loans (NYSEARCA:BKLN) and preferreds (NYSEARCA:PFF) hold up considerably better with declines of just -0.64%, -0.17% and -0.90%, respectively? Thus, a closer inspection of exactly why utilities and REITs were down so severely is warranted.
    In the case of utilities and REITs, both are categories that had gotten way ahead of themselves in recent months."
    Article then goes on to provide charts and other discussion. Worthwhile viewing."
  • Has David Iben of Kopernik lost his touch?
    David Iben who is the Portfolio Manager for Kopernik KGGIX/KGGAX is off to a rough start. Former manager of Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities and had excellent returns.
    YTD Down -15.37

    I'm seeing this as YTD up 2.92% KGGAX
    The YTD quoted above is for last year, when the thread started.
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    Let's get this documented, so M* can see it once someone brings their attention to it:
    image
  • Has David Iben of Kopernik lost his touch?
    David Iben who is the Portfolio Manager for Kopernik KGGIX/KGGAX is off to a rough start. Former manager of Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities and had excellent returns.
    YTD Down -15.37
    I'm seeing this as YTD up 2.92% KGGAX
  • ETFs As A Solution For Cash
    That's my point. Not only is there more risk, but the yields are less than banks. Using David's ETFs as examples (SEC yield/trailing twelve month yield):
    FLRN (0.50%, 0.53%), FLOT (0.46%, 0.44%), BSCF (0.48%, 0.88%), BOND (1.13%, 4.20%).
    I can't really comment on the PIMCO ETF (given management change, given PIMCO's extensive use of derivatives, etc.), but the first two are about as expected. The third - the Guggenheim Bulletshares - raises an interesting possibility.
    This is a series of target date corporate bond funds. The idea is that they track indexes of bonds through the bonds' maturities. Assuming the funds execute well (they replicate the performance of the indexes sometimes with actual replication of the portfolio, but sometimes with substitutions), there is a price phenomenon that one might take advantage of.
    Think of an individual bond, two years to maturity, whose coupon equals the current market rate. (Trying to make things simple here.) After a year, it's a one year bond. Its coupon hasn't shrunk, but (assuming rate curves haven't moved), it is now paying above market interest, because one year bonds generally yield less than two year bonds.
    So its price will have risen. It's now a discount bond. As it gets closer and closer to maturity, that discount may initially continue to increase, but will ultimately shrink and then vanish to zero at maturity. So there's a window where, just by aging, bonds increase in price.
    It's often too costly to trade individual bonds to take advantage of this behavior, but not so for ETFs. One could buy a 2-3 year bullet ETF, and sell it in a year. One would invest at the going rate for 2 or 3 year bonds, and pick up price appreciation. That price appreciation would seem to cover or at least substantially mitigate price depreciation due to rising interest rates. (Here I'm assuming rates don't go up by more than 1/2% over a year, and the duration is 2-3 years.)
    One other thing to note about these ETFs - as the bonds in the portfolio mature, the funds go to cash (which pays nothing). So they seem to be pretty useless in their final year, and that could affect their pricing in other years. I haven't thought this through yet.
    This isn't quite a cash strategy, but seems like a way to take advantage not of the 2015 target ETF, but of the 2017 BSCH, with 1.18% SEC yield and 1.58% trailing twelve month. May still not be worth the risk, but it does seem to be a way to boost expected return above bank yields (1%) while mitigating interest rate risk with price appreciation.
    Shorter term doesn't seem to pay off, and longer term seems to have too much interest rate risk (longer duration). If you believe fully in the efficient market, this strategy is already built into the pricing, and on a risk-adjusted basis, you'll break even.
  • ETFs As A Solution For Cash
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    With banks shunning deposits and money markets facing new regulations, exchange-traded funds may be one answer to getting returns on liquidity.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&site=&source=hp&q=ETFs+as+a+Solution+for+Cash+barron's&oq=ETFs+as+a+Solution+for+Cash+barron's&gs_l=hp.3...5522.10242.0.10477.10.10.0.0.0.0.62.551.10.10.0.msedr...0...1c.1.62.hp..6.4.232.p-zIOcbrZM8
  • Big Winners And Losers In The Markets Yesterday
    FYI: Another strong jobs report squeezed markets on Friday as traders read the fast pace of job creation as a signal that the Federal Reserve might soon start to tighten the spigot on easy-money policies. Here's what happened !
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/03/06/big-winners-and-losers-in-the-markets-dollar-soars-bonds-beaten-down/tab/print/
  • Fairholme.. Will It Close In The Black YTD Today?
    @Mark...thanks for responding. Even with the trimming, AIG is still a 40% holding for FAIRX...I may have to suggest it be renamed F-AIG-X.
    @David_Snowball...This M* "dual descriptor" reminds me of the oxymoron, "Jumbo Shrimp".
    Should one be more impressed at the twinkle of the stars or the mettle of the medal?
    Great sense of humor @bee.
    BTW, I see AIG as a 47% holding of FAIRX, when you take the common stock plus the warrants
    IIRC, at one point it was about 52% common stock plus warrants.
  • Harbor Emerging Markets Debt Fund to liquidate
    The difference in performance probably due to big difference in asset size. With only 15M in assets, it is very hard to ever get out of the wading pool into the swimming area. It's for the best; it just wasn't working for anyone involved.
  • PIMIX / PONDX Lost their groove....managers or where invested.......???
    Well, I know that it makes little sense, but I have to compare my mess portfolio to something, so I arbitrarily use the 500, striving for reduced volatility both up and down. Seemed to work OK today: 500 down 1.4%, our stuff down 0.8%. Solid red today, except for RPHYX, which stayed even. Good thing too, as there's a lot of cash stashed there.
  • What's With These Top Performing Value Funds ?
    Small and midcaps vs SP500 doesn't seem worth an article, value aside.