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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • tax loss selling question
    +1 Sven I learned that with the ultra-short bond funds in 2020 !
  • PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund re-opening to new investors (Here's your chance to get in!)
    The Primecap funds have certainly endured a few years of bad luck -- POAGX in particular was perfectly positioned to crater when covid struck as it had outsized stakes in things like airlines and cruise lines. Yet the fund is idiosyncratic, that's for sure. All three of the funds have seen significant redemptions, resulting in large capital gains distributions for several years (worsening tax-adjusted performance). Anyone considering a new investment should take a look at the portfolio and be comfortable with the huge chunk of biotech and pharmaceuticals in there. It's almost a healthcare fund.

    You bring up some very good points.
    Primecap is a benchmark-agnostic firm and tends to favor certain industries.
    The following data was gleaned from M* reports published July 2022.
    POAGX: ~20% in biotech/pharma, ~13% in semis
    VPMAX: ~20% in biotech/pharma, ~13% in semis
    VPCCX: ~18% in biotech/pharma, ~11% in semis
    Primecap-managed funds may underperform common benchmarks for several consecutive calendar years.
    Investors should be prepared for this possibility.
    POAGX: lagged Russell Mid-Cap Growth from 2018 - 2021
    VPMAX: lagged Russell 1000 and S&P 500 from 2019 - 2021
    VPCCX: lagged Russell 1000 and S&P 500 from 2018 - 2021
    All three funds had top-decile 10 Yr. and 15 Yr. fund category returns through 11/30/2022.
    Primecap-managed funds can generate large capital gains distributions
    and are best held in tax-deferred or tax-exempt accounts.
  • tax loss selling question
    If your loss exceed $3,000, the remaining balance gets carry over next year.
    Back in 2008, I incurred capital loss that covered next several years. If I would be more patient, these funds would have recovered in several years. In the retrospect, I should be patient just like Warren Buffet.
  • tax loss selling question
    Tax-loss will offset capital gains first, and then up to $3,000 of ordinary income (earned, unearned, from IRA/pension distributions, etc).
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    Hi how many of you who lost money are from CA? maybe we can all get together and file a lawsuit against TBO Capital LLC, TBO CEO and HMC Trading LLC
  • Are the risks of Financial Account Aggregation really worth it?
    @yogibearbull
    Do you manually enter each transaction? M* Portfolio still lets you download a file with positions and average price, although M* Investor still refuses to allow this.
    Has anyone heard of any brokerage account hacks?
    I always assumed that if you used Schwab's offer to use an aggregator, the credentials were at the aggregator, not at Schwab, so therefore protected only to extent aggregator protects them. Any hint of a data breach and their business would collapse, but still who knows how good their security is?
    Nor have I been able to document how they claim that they only get transactions and balances without being able to trade, move money etc. Once a hacker got your PW etc, they could do anything they wanted, obviously.
    While I have not tracked it down yet, it would be interesting to compare Schwab policies with a full service broker like Morgan Stanley, where it is impossible to trade without a human being.
    You would think your money is safer at Morgan Stanley, but getting access to an account illegally would still allow transfers out without a human involved. However, adding a new account requires two factor authorization, and trial deposits just as it does at Schwab.
    I doubt your broker monitors accounts so carefully that they would alert you to something unusual
    But neither Schwab nor Morgan Stanley will allow you to set alerts to notify you of all account activity; Schwab will send trade alerts, but not deposit, withdrawal alerts and MS only sends balance alerts. You get an email if there is a trade, but not what it is.
    I assume ( but I do not know) that since Schwab requires a manual sell order to raise cash, they would not transfer money out of the account without the sell order being placed ( and maybe settled too?), if your cash balance is low. I don't think you would be notified of the trade until it occurred.
    My bank and credit card text me every time there is any activity of $0.01 or more. If brokerages had this function, it would be added security that nothing could happen without your knowledge.
    Of course, you might hear about the fake trial deposits and intervene in time, but you might not. And once the money leaves, being told about it a few seconds later would not stop it leaving. With the ease of money transfer today, your money would probably be in Nigeria before you opened the email or logged on to see what was happening.
    In the past, when I asked about risks , Personal Capital rep claims aggregating everything would increase security because you could see any new transactions immediately.
    Does anyone have any experience with this?
  • PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund re-opening to new investors (Here's your chance to get in!)
    The Primecap funds have certainly endured a few years of bad luck -- POAGX in particular was perfectly positioned to crater when covid struck as it had outsized stakes in things like airlines and cruise lines. Yet the fund is idiosyncratic, that's for sure. All three of the funds have seen significant redemptions, resulting in large capital gains distributions for several years (worsening tax-adjusted performance). Anyone considering a new investment should take a look at the portfolio and be comfortable with the huge chunk of biotech and pharmaceuticals in there. It's almost a healthcare fund.
  • Are the risks of Financial Account Aggregation really worth it?
    Using Yodlee via Schwab vs. using Yodlee or equivalent directly does not offer any additional security. Yodlee is a cloud based service, it can be hacked directly without needing to hack Schwab.
    Note that the account credentials you are providing (either to Schwab or Yodlee directly) are traversing the internet from your machine to Schwab and from Schwab to the aggregator. Yes it is encrypted and all that good stuff but it can be hacked including from bad apple insiders (this is how Capital One was hacked)
    In a cloud based world, hacking is a lot easier than the pre-cloud world because of the distributed nature of all services. In the age of the internet, security and privacy are not realistically possible. Over the last 5-7 years at least 5+ of my accounts with large corporations have been hacked -- Target, Capital One, Home Depot, Experian, etc..
    Hell LastPass recently got hacked, in effect LastPass is the equivalent of an account aggregator but much worse since it has a lot more confidential stuff than just financial accounts.
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    sounds like the only choice here is to file a lawsuit against TBO Capital and HMC trading LLC at their addresses provided (one is in NC and the other is NY); Most likely they won't answer and we get automatic judgement against them in case monies are found in frozen bank accounts or real estate even if its not in USA, may take longer with SEC's and federal courts. The monies (when and if found) will be dispursed to those who have a judgement waiting to collect (first come first serve).
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    For mama acct - capital preservations are keys
    Add more BOEING BA 097023AM7, ytm 5.** % BBB- rated, mature 15-Jun-2025, no insurance. http://www.oblible.com/bond-US097023AM78.htm
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA?p=BA&.tsrc=fin-srch
    https://www.macroaxis.com/target-price/BA
    also dca more into FIDELITY 2015: FFVFX
    kind regards
  • Ex-FTX CEO Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas as U.S. files charges
    The whole thing stinks miles to Sunday...how come none of his colleagues have been arrested yet? Who is Ellison, Wang, Singh, etc...are we supposed to beleive they aren't complicit?
    Why is there not more noise about him influencing mid term elections with his millions stolen money donationt to the dems?
    His Mother...the well connected Democrat lefty fund raiser..."Mind the Gap"...funneling monies to the lefties..his Dad, Bankman, a leading expert on state and federal tax shelters...Aunt working for the Socialist Schwab at WEF and his MMT techno babble gobbly gook...brother a vaccine/pandemic "fanboy" ... F them with a Capital F all of them, throw them in jail! As mentioned prior...Bermuda homes...oh oh our boy is in trouble better try to put them in someone else's name etc.
    You couldn't make this shit up even if you were a Hollywood screenwriter.
    The reason he didn't skate and skip out to another country is he is thinking he bought protection and will get away with it.
    Maxine Waters, big fan of his...go figure...how the heck is she House Chair Finance Committe...you got to be shitting me, I wouldn't trust her ability to run a Jack in the Box franchise...wasn't Gensler before this happened championing to assist FTX in the regulatory arena?
    What a bunch of crack pots, weirdos...who would put monies with ths clown just based on his appearance and how he talks.
    Yeesh.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Pretty much topped out in the IRA, with mostly stock funds, and 25% cash. Will look at selling to raise some cash and reposition if the current rally continues. We don't need IRA income at the moment, so we can let it ride for another five-six years. I might take some cap distributions, but otherwise reinvesting in a dog's breakfast of a fund portfolio Christine Benz would love to simplify. Will really need to simplify as distributions approach.
    Still at 40% cash in the taxable. Harvesting some tax losses in theses I no longer have interest in. Looking for buying opportunities in the near future as inflation news continues. Mainly focused on dividends, health, tech, utilities, alt energy, water, and staples. Taking a few cap gains distributions to help with the holidays. But otherwise reinvesting.
    Not living large. But the house is paid for. And cash flow is currently less stressful than when we were working.
  • A Timely Analysis of Market Declines Written in March 2020
    https://www.raymondjames.com/fosterfitzsimmons/blog/2020/03/06/investors-make-money-the-old-fashioned-way-they-earn-it
    I was curious about the John Houseman commercial for Smith-Barney in the 80's and a search led me to the above article published by Raymond James. The subject is not so much the ubiquitous advertisement, but the history of the numerous market draw downs that investors have endured over the past century or so. The authors of this piece could easily be writing about the 2022 market declines. The piece was prescient in 2020, to say the least. I found wisdom and solace in the historical approach; market declines are normal and must be endured. One "earns" money not by avoiding the pullbacks, but by enduring them. A nice collection of easily graspable statistics and nicely arranged tables make for easy reading.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Curious as to how folks are positioning their portfolios going into the New Year.
    I remain cautious as always, top down as follows:
    Tbill/Note/CD laddered out to 1 month thru 5 years (~80-85% of portfolio)
    AMEX money market online savings
    PMEFX
    PVCMX
    FORTX (Abraham Fortress Fund, Abraham Salem runs the fund...rain maker...now avail at Schwab)
    SVARX (thinking that high yield bonds might do very well by end of year 23'?)
    PCAFX (Prospector Capital Appreciation, experienced fund mgr's)
    Thoughts: I believe inflation will be sticky, balance sheet tightening continues, Ukraine/Russia war continues, housing market muddles along, does not collapse, economy slows down but also muddles along, of course all that being said I have no idea and sure hope things get better! I'll leave my political thoughts off this post as prolly better that way, just to keep the focus on investing.
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Timely Tax Ideas from Barron's This Week
    More ideas this week, 12/10/22.
    TAXES and GIVING. The ESTATE exemption of $12.06/$24.12 million (single/joint) is for super-wealthy, but there are many others things that ordinary investors can do. ANNUAL gift EXEMPTION is $16K/yr/person ($17K in 2023) to avoid filing Form 709 (that is tricky but can also be done for larger gifts). Since 2018, standard deduction has been high (90% now just take standard deduction), so consider BUNCHING up charitable contributions (including large DAF contributions), Roth Conversions and other deductions for an itemizing-year. Older folks (70+) can use QCDs that also count for RMDs (72+). This has been a bad year but consider donating long-held APPRECIATED securities or those with rare profits in 2022 (energy). BEWARE that some relaxations for charitable contributions for 2020-21 have expired and don’t apply in 2022.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/chairty-taxes-giving-strategies-51670454584?mod=past_editions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/374/barron-december-12-2022-2
  • The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?
    Americans are missing out on billions of dollars in interest by keeping their savings at the biggest U.S. banks.
    Following are edited excerpts from an article in yesterday's Wall Street Journal. While we here at MFO discuss the merits of CDs which pay 4.85%, huge numbers of fellow Americans are earning next to nothing on their bank deposits.

    The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to their highest level since early 2008. Yet the biggest commercial banks are still paying peanuts to savers. In theory, savers could have earned $42 billion more in interest in the third quarter if they moved their money out of the five largest U.S. banks by deposits to the five highest-yield savings accounts—none of which are offered by the big banks—according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
    The five banks—Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Co.—paid an average of 0.4% interest on consumer deposits in savings and money-market accounts during the quarter, according to S&P Global. The five highest-yielding savings accounts paid an average of 2.14% during the same period, according to data from Bankrate.com. These five banks collectively hold about half of all the money kept at U.S. commercial banks in savings and money-market accounts tracked by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. That share has held steady despite the availability of higher rates elsewhere.
    The $42 billion gap in the third quarter was the largest amount since record-keeping began, but will likely be dwarfed in the fourth quarter because top high-yield savings accounts have raised their interest rates to more than 3.5%.
    Since the start of 2019, Americans have lost out on at least $291 billion in interest by keeping their savings in the five biggest banks. That total balloons to $603 billion when going back to 2014, when the FDIC started tracking consumer deposits in money-market and other savings accounts.
    And U.S. savers have likely missed out on much more than $600 billion because the average rate the five biggest banks have paid over the past eight years, 0.24%, includes higher-yielding money-market accounts and some business accounts. Traditional savings accounts paid an average rate of 0.02% at the five largest banks during that period.
    Why haven’t savers moved more of their money? Some customers aren’t aware of how much money they could make by switching, and others just don’t care. Alicia Gillum has been with Bank of America for 26 years and says she has no interest in searching for a new bank, even though her savings of more than $100,000 is earning almost no interest. Her loyalty has earned her Platinum Honors Tier status, which affords her a 0.04% interest rate on her savings instead of the 0.01% rate the bank pays to customers of its basic savings accounts.
    Americans flush with stimulus payments and enhanced unemployment checks flooded U.S. banks with deposits earlier in the pandemic. The biggest banks got an outsize share of those deposits. About $425 billion flowed into money-market and savings accounts at U.S. commercial banks between the first quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2022, according to the FDIC. More than 95% of that went to the five largest banks.
    But things could be changing. The average rate on money-market and savings accounts at the five largest banks nearly tripled in the third quarter from where it was in the second. And people are starting to move their money around in other ways to take advantage of higher rates, pouring a record amount into higher-yielding savings vehicles such as Series I savings bonds and Treasury bills this year.
    Wow! "Platinum Honors Tier status" at BofA... Now that's really something!
  • Td acquired by schwab
    Schwab + TD Ameritrade deal closed in 2020. But integration of large brokerages is complex and Schwab plans to complete most of the transition for retail by early-2023 and for advisors by late-2023.
    https://www.aboutschwab.com/schwab-statement-on-ameritrade-client-transition-timeline
  • TDA and Schwab
    Any word on when ThinkDesktop will be moved over?? Stunning this integration has taken over 2.5 years and it seems like they're not even halfway done yet. (And Schwab's 'active trader' is horrid compared to ThinkDesktop.)
    Glad I switched over myself back in 2020. I've been thru enough brokerage consolidations that I didn't need any more drama!
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    The 98 cents you pay now but once matured you get the 100 cents, get 4.5% divs annually base on 100 cents (450$ per yr) that why some cd may yield slightly higher base in purchase price (of course lowered price mean more risks like credit suise cd and higher bankruptcy risks)
    Becareful because Once bankruptcy goes to court may loose all your monies in bonds but may not loose in cd.
    As long as banks are fdic back by Feds investors will get cash back but may take awhile through court procedures.
    That why I am scare buy credits suise but fond of boa or wells Fargo or Chase cd backed w FDIC/FEDS. Better get little less ytm but lessen headaches long terms
    W bonds investments higher grades better to sleep at night, that why you are betting companies won't bellied up in 12 24 or 36 months holding these vehicles (boeing Ford GM Toyota pg&e etc) . Ytm higher than cd near5%
    I am not sure if we need continue hold BBBY
    , previously ut they are cc- or lowered chance bankruptcy so high maybe 40 50% annually. We bought Bbby bonds 4 yrs ago rated bbb but their rating dropped severely bad last 7 8 months because poor run companies, poor Er, and no more creditrd/cash, lost customers and poor overall economic conditions. Price dropped they are due in 6 months so we are holding on hopeful won't bankruptcies in 6 months. If you sell them you loose 50% of capitals or more prices do low.... As long as they don't bankrupt by April next yr we get all capital back once called