Curious as to how folks are positioning their portfolios going into the New Year.
I remain cautious as always, top down as follows:
Tbill/Note/CD laddered out to 1 month thru 5 years (~80-85% of portfolio)
AMEX money market online savings
PMEFX
PVCMX
FORTX (Abraham Fortress Fund, Abraham Salem runs the fund...rain maker...now avail at Schwab)
SVARX (thinking that high yield bonds might do very well by end of year 23'?)
PCAFX (Prospector Capital Appreciation, experienced fund mgr's)
Thoughts: I believe inflation will be sticky, balance sheet tightening continues, Ukraine/Russia war continues, housing market muddles along, does not collapse, economy slows down but also muddles along, of course all that being said I have no idea and sure hope things get better! I'll leave my political thoughts off this post as prolly better that way, just to keep the focus on investing.
Best,
Baseball Fan
Comments
We are still young and don't know how to time market well. Could be stagnation for 12 24 months (look at high rates high inflation, high unemployment environments in 1990s downturns stagnation conditions for quite a long time).
We Keep buying stocks while cheap hope hold for 15 20 yrs til retirement hopeful 3x by then 2035. Been dca into growth, techs stocks, emergent markets, US Sp500, and 401k still at 90/10 distributions.
Unless near retirement would be in lots Corp Bonds ust cash cd and less riskier assets, maybe 40% stocks. Friend 70 yo has 70% stocks unclear why but that her monies. Mama retired portfolios 70s% fixed asset and safe vehicles, she loss about 17% last 12 months but made some back. Biggest holders: Fidelity 2015 tdf, fbnd, and lots Corp bonds
Happy holidays
Am still overweighted on the growth part at 24.5%. Income (a mix of bond funds / cash) is on the low end at 20%. Earlier in the year I took income all the way down to 16-17% and growth up to around 27%. Did that to pick off some attractive prices when the DJI was flirting with 28,000.
Don’t do CDs. Like what little cash I hold to be liquid so can play around with it. As far as the Alt segment goes, it’s quite stable (currently 4 funds). Rarely mess with it. The Spec allocation is quite diversified at present and serves as a bit of a hedge against big moves in equities. It includes among other things: a small hold on inverse SPDN to dampen volatility; a bit of GLTR; some CCOR - which is an intriguing fund. If it had a longer track record I’d hold a bigger chunk.
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PS - As noted a few days ago in the “Buy / Sell” thread, I did unload 2 significant equity holdings recently and used the proceeds to fund CVSIX which became part of the Alt sleeve. Mixed reasons for that move. One of the equities had had a good run this year and didn’t want to press my luck. At the same time, income-bearing investments - like CVSIX holds - are now more attractive than they were 6 months to a year ago owing to much higher prevailing interest rates. Some of the resultant risk reduction relates to perceived distribution needs going into 2023. I realize it’s unorthodox, but the 2 equities sold had previously been included in my “Alt” sleeve. So the move didn’t significantly alter my model allocation.
”I believe inflation will be sticky” - Agree
”balance sheet tightening continues”- You mean the Fed? One pundit I follow thinks this will be so “until something breaks” (leading to reversal of Fed tightening). I tend to agree.
”Ukraine/Russia war continues” - Hard to say
housing market muddles along, does not collapse - That’s the Achilles Heel that threatens to bring down the entire economy. However, there will always be some assets that do well. And note that economy and stock market are not synonymous.
”economy slows down but also muddles along” - That’s as good a guess as any.
”I'll leave my political thoughts off this post” … We all should. A good investor ought to be able to make money regardless of whether Ds or Rs are in control. One’s skill at money management ought not be contingent on the vicissitudes of the ever changing political landscape.
- Alts: 55%
- US Stocks: 13%
- Intl Stocks: 3%
- US Bonds: 24%
- Cash: 5%
In 2023, I expect to get cash closer to 10% and Alts closer to 50% Good luck to all
I sat in SUV at Walmart for 45 minutes after dropping gal pal off to exchange 70" TV. Lesson learned, don't take open boxes.
This happened Sat. 3:45 ish. LOTs of shoppers , parking lot about 75% or more full.
Point taken , Christmas pushing economy at this time. After New Years salute, I'm thinking economy to slow way down ! Trucker says it's getting harder to find loads.
As of this time I'm looking at some sales come Monday , with CD's & T Bills being bought.
Going further out on maturities 12,18,24 months.
FWIW, Derf
Watching for pullbacks, dollar-cost-averaging into my single stocks via the brokerage. The FUNDS in the T-IRA will have to grow on their own. Makes no sense in my situation to add new money to T-IRA now. Rearranging that money is always an option, though.
I'm going to cut back on financials PRISX after waiting probably too long for that one to produce. I bought too early. I'm considering a junk ETF. Also, AGEPX has been on my radar for a full year. Dividend-paying equities might be my best bet PRFDX.
Before making any New Year moves, here I am:
14 growth
45 blend
41 value
70 stocks, only 9 percent foreign.
25 bonds
3 cash
1 other
Financials 34%
Energy 12%
Tech. 12%
Healthcare 11%
Sadly, the war in Ukraine will continue. Inflation will indeed be sticky. Where will the terminal rate be? My utterly ignorant guess is that it might be 6.5 to 7 percent. And then they will probably exceed that. WTF do I know???
RE is less than 3% of my stuff. The plurality is in PSTL. Safe. But will it rise? i think it's suffering a knock-on effect along with the rest of the RE Market. Holding here, not adding to that one. Let the $$ I put in there PRODUCE!
You wrote: Ust be very careful, it's too high now w high RSI ( except ust 10 yrs or 20yrs extremely cheap).
What ticker symbol are you using to discover the RSI of UST's?
Send the link, please.
Thank you.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST6M&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p14004950173
Yes, agree and thank you.
The question to john is what is he looking at and to offer something concrete based upon his statement.
The reverse maybe true now and $SPY may go down w macd crossover, unable to support 200d MA 50 and 50 days MA past wk, and rsi was higher than 50 60 past few wks. $UST and $UUP reached support levels may have momentum changes w low rsi and may have short upswings from here.
Unless cpi inflation data weds extremely good on Dec 13th, spy may have good rally afterwards. Lots bear folks Shorting betting last leg downs spy ( - 7 - 10%) next few wks.
The overview remains for me, as from 1978; that we invest in an ever dynamic market place that has more nuts and bolts today, than in the past, IMHO. Use the best tool box one can manage to understand to keep those nuts and bolts holding together whatever it is that one tinkers with.
Only use 5% of portfolio tradings but quit past few months hurt pretty bad and massive downswings/ impossible time market, can only speculate and wrong more than 60% of time
Passive portfolio keep buying sp500 Vang2045, and Corp Bonds, this is what I been doing last 12 yrs before trading and had annual ~9% returns until late 2021... Why fix when not broken. 2023 likely use same investment philosophy, think if get 5 7% annual returns I am happy
Thx for suggestions kind regards
This week's CPI Tues 13th
7.3% Market consensus
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59179/posting-images
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/248/posting-images
One final thought, @hank favorite columnist Randall Forsyth shared an interview with Felix Zulauf recently in Barron's Market Vet Predicts the Next Decade Will Be Awful for the 60/40 Portfolio. How to Invest. I don't know if his track record is any better than 50-50 but a lot of what he said made sense.
U.S.A.: "mild" recession coming up, in the middle 2 quarters of '23.
Generally, the next DECADE will be a "rollercoaster."
Geopolitically, a divided world. In Europe, the boycott of Russia is counterproductive. (But ethically?)
The world is de-globalizing. Supply chain issues will not go away. We do not have the influence we once did, in the USA. We will be less prosperous 10 years from now, generally speaking. So make the best of your investment decisions.
China cannot afford to store their reserves any longer in US Treasuries. They know that, so do we all. (Geopolitical considerations.)
(He is, of course, speaking amorally, without regard to ethical considerations. His presentation is about making money. There are no value-judgments in what he's saying, clearly. Zulauf: The USA in particular is stupid for freezing assets and boycotting Russia and restricting the flow of chips and maybe other stuff to China.)
Dollar: rally in 1st Quarter, '23. But longer-term, declining. As will the influence of the USA, worldwide.
When the post-recession rally comes, it will be pronounced in growth stocks. When they get to a high-point off that rally, then switch into energy stocks. That's his trade.
Right now he is neutral on stocks and will go net-short "very soon."
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....... i don't trade in and out at all. Buy & Hold is dead, so I'm not there anymore, either. Portfolios WILL need to be babysat and supervised much more, into the future. But I don't do shorts. I don't trade in and out, every couple of months. I will have to let this interview percolate and figure out just how much of what he said is useful to someone like ME. But it was time well-spent.
What struck me from the interview is that this man seems to have a pretty precise time-line figured out for all the major moves in equities, bonds and commodities almost to the month on through 2024. Awesome. Meanwhile, here am I fumbling around trying to remember where I placed the car keys an hour ago!
Thanks @Mark for sharing your positioning.
From my recollection, Mr. Zulauf was always bearish in the Roundtable sessions.
I don't know how accurate his prognostications have been.
US Stocks___41.98%
Non-US Stocks___23.12%
Bonds___0.00%
Cash___34.83%
Other?___0.06%
I sold my intermediate core-plus bond fund late last year due to concerns about rising rates.
My ultra-short term bond fund was liquidated earlier this year for tax loss harvesting purposes.
I dumped my multisector bond fund because of an abrupt and unexpected manager departure.
The sales proceeds went to "cash" - stable value fund, Treasury Bills, money market funds.
Overall, I'm fairly satisfied with my allocation and holdings at the present time.
Next year I'll probably increase my equity allocation slightly to approximately 70%.
Will add to VPCCX and MIEIX CIT clone.
I also plan to buy back the intermediate core-plus bond fund (DOXIX)
and possibly purchase some other fixed-income investments.
Still at 40% cash in the taxable. Harvesting some tax losses in theses I no longer have interest in. Looking for buying opportunities in the near future as inflation news continues. Mainly focused on dividends, health, tech, utilities, alt energy, water, and staples. Taking a few cap gains distributions to help with the holidays. But otherwise reinvesting.
Not living large. But the house is paid for. And cash flow is currently less stressful than when we were working.