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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dow futures fall 500 points as Credit Suisse shares drop more than 20%
    Apparently something broke in the banking sector not just in US…
    Excerpt from article:
    In recent days, a crisis in the financial sector has centered around regional banks as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed, both casualties of poor management in the face of eight interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the last 12 months. Wednesday morning attention turned to the big banks with shares of Credit Suisse hitting an all-time low.
    Saudi National Bank, Credit Suisse’s largest investor, said Wednesday it could not provide any more funding, according to a Reuters report. This comes after the Swiss lender said Tuesday it had found “certain material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting” for the years 2021 and 2022.
    As Credit Suisse dragged down the European Bank sector, U.S. big bank shares declined in sympathy. Citigroup and Wells Fargo shed 3%, while Goldman Sachs and Bank of America fell 2%. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund lost 2.9% in premarket trading, giving up its 2% pop on Tuesday.
    Regional Banks, whose rebounded helped lift sentiment for the broader market on Tuesday, fell back into the red again. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) was down 3% in the premarket, led by losses in Old National Bancorp, Zions Bancorp and Fifth Third Bancorp. To be sure, shares of First Republic Bank were clinging to gains.
    https://cnbc.com/2023/03/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
    From Reuters:
    Credit Suisse on Tuesday published its annual report for 2022 saying the bank had identified "material weaknesses" in controls over financial reporting and not yet stemmed customer outflows.
    Switzerland's second-biggest bank is seeking to recover from a string of scandals that have undermined the confidence of investors and clients. Customer outflows in the fourth quarter rose to more than 110 billion Swiss francs ($120 billion).

  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    Inflation can indeed be a real PITA for average people, but not having a job to pay for anything is worse for many people than being employed but having to pay more for everything. A balance of these interests needs to be recognized in the rate discussion. From the article on after Volcker jacked up rates to double digits:
    The economic results of this counterrevolution were far from unambiguous. Growth in the early 1980s slumped. Entire industrial sectors were rendered uncompetitive by soaring interest rates and surging exchange rates. Unemployment hit postwar records. It was painful, but on the conservative reading there was, as British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher liked to say, no alternative. If the struggles of the 1970s had continued, she suggested, the result would have been a slide toward ever more rapid inflation and threats to the institutional status quo. Ultimately, the Cold War order was in peril, and if avoiding that fate required turning monetary policy into a more blunt-force form of political struggle, then so be it. In fighting the mineworkers into submission in 1984-85, she was waging war on enemies within, as she waged war on the Soviet enemy without. The prize was nothing less than a permanent shift in the balance of social and economic power and the exclusion of alternatives to the rule of private property and markets.
    As for labor having much power, it is a shadow of what it was in the 1970s:
    image
  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    @hank
    But you might make an argument that inflation harms the wealthy more than the working class.
    There are a number of I think mistaken assumptions in your post. One is that the wealthiest keep most of their money on deposit. The more money someone has, the more risks they can take with that money to keep up with inflation. It is the middle class and poor who need to keep most of their assets in bank accounts, not the wealthiest, as the middle class and poor need to have liquid capital in case of emergencies. A wealthy investor can afford to tie their money up for several years in far less liquid but very lucrative investments with returns that exceed inflation.
    On the other hand, if you have lots of debt (assuming at a fixed-rate) you are helped by inflation as you pay back the debt with cheaper dollars.
    That assumes the poorest people's wages keep up with inflation. That is often not the case as the unskilled or low-skilled labor have the least bargaining power when it comes to wages. If you're not making more money to pay back the fixed amount of debt, that doesn't work. Moreover, much of the debt poorer people often assume like credit card debt is often variable rate that rises with interest rates and inflation.
    The poor spend almost all of their wages on items they consume, and the prices of those items are going up. They have no means of saving in ways that can keep up with inflation.
  • Grim take from M* Yet another SVB thread
    I only mention this because M* typically wears rose-colored glasses . . .
    Here's a taste. No sugar.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1144082/why-investors-should-care-about-the-banking-scare
    It’s easy for investors to dismiss the ripples from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank SVIB as contained and nothing to worry about when it comes to a broader portfolio.
    But if there’s one thing to know about banking crises, it’s that they are never just about the banks. They may start there, but they don’t end there. Easy financial conditions tend to lead to higher risk-taking and a complacency that long-established patterns will continue. Until they don’t.
    As Warren Buffett has been known to observe, only when the tide goes out do you see who’s been swimming naked.
    The Worry Is Fear
    The failure of two major regional banks since Friday threatens to erode investor and consumer confidence to a degree that could spiral in unexpected ways. And with inflation still raging at the highest levels in 40 years and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the most accelerated pace since those years, things are starting to break.
    “The worry is about fear,” says Tim Murray, capital markets strategist for multi-asset portfolios at investment manager T. Rowe Price.
    In good times, too, policymakers get lax and tend to feel like it is safe to repeal or reduce important protections designed to prevent systemic events and consumer safeguards.
    My grandfather used to say the business cycle was driven by how long it took to forget lessons learned the hard way. He rolled up banks working for The Comptroller of the Currency during the Great Depression.
    Ah, the good old days, when depositors money was vaporized.
  • Managed Futures Funds Would Not Have Protected You
    I watch from the sidelines several managed futures and alternative strategies, but hold only REMIX and PGAEX. For what it is worth, the following three managed futures strategies crashed along with the market in the past few days; namely, CTA, DBMF, and PQTAX. In my limited experience, these funds have produced gains on days when equities have crashed. Not so during this SVB crisis. In fact, the two ETFs are up smartly today with the rally in stocks.
  • Bank Rescue Plan
    Easy to say when you don't have to worry about spreading many millions of dollars of operating capital around, and yet also need to have that money quickly available when required. That's the way that a significant part of the national business community operates.
    Example: A company needs to safely deposit $20 million, and yet have it easily available, perhaps within a tight timeframe. So they're supposed to break that into eighty separate 250k deposits and find eighty separate banks to use, and yet have all of that quickly and easily available?
    Right.
    Given that reality maybe the federal financial administration ought to put in place a suitable mechanism for that type of business instead of playing games and taking the entire financial system right to the brink of disaster.
    Not all that hard for the fed money masters to do, either.
  • Blood in the Streets SCHW etc
    I bought some SCHW at 51+ this morning. I had considered it on Friday but decided to see how the weekend went. It touched 45 early this morning, but I spent some time looking for data and opinions before pulling the trigger.
    I'm somewhat nervous about taking this position, because this is not an industry I've followed (even though I've had some BAC for years).
    Everything in the financial industry has been tarnished. I considered adding to my AXP position (down about 10% in the last month) but don't really see this as a big buying opportunity (yet).
    CNBC has had some interesting guests through the day. Brad Gerstner of Altimeter Capital for one.
    The world of big banks seems much more complicated than the banking issues most of us have encountered in our lives. So their "governance/regulation" is pretty complex.
    Like many other "large" issues in our economy, there are often no easy answers.
    David
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Depositors with big cash holdings are – reasonably – expected to be aware of the risks and spread their cash around several institutions. Businesses backed by venture capital, such as the customers of SVB, ought to have been advised how to manage their liquid holdings.
    ... the sight of depositors being made whole ... provides a disincentive for both depositors and banks to be prudent. There’s no reward here for SVB customers who banked more carefully.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/13/svb-crisis-backstop-revives-the-specter-of-moral-hazard/bb2731c6-c188-11ed-82a7-6a87555c1878_story.html
    As I wrote above, I take a darker view. It's not just the presence of reward (higher returns) but the absence of punishment that's a problem with risky deposits. There's no penalty (loss) for large depositors to be reckless with their savings.
    However, it's not every bank failure that gets protection. It's not automatic. It's just the banks that take the most outrageous risks and lose that are directly protected by the government. On infrequent occasions, uninsured depositors lose money. That happens when a failed bank is not TBTF, but the the FDIC can't find a buyer that will assume all of the bank's deposit liabilities.
    https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/
    This unequal treatment has its own problems, as discussed in this 1990 paper (near the end of the quoted section):
    A good first step... would be to cease the present practice of fully paying out uninsured depositors when bank failures occur. This practice, of course, is de facto insurance [emphasis in original] ... Paul Duke, Jr. reports that "many [bankers] support proposals to give depositors a 'haircut' a 10% of 15% loss on deposits above the [FDIC insurance limit] — when a bank fails. Two of banking's biggest guns, Citicorp Chairman John Reed and Chase Manhattan President Thomas Lebrecque, support variations of this proposal (WSJ, Aug 3, 'S9, A16). ... Such a shift in policy should not encounter insuperable opposition since it falls far short of enforcing the insurance limitations which legally already exist.
    Since the Continental Illinois bankruptcy the federal banking and S&L authorities have adopted a too—big—to-fail policy. The policy is closely related to the unwritten policy of rescuing any faltering American corporation if it is large enough. The most notable cases so far have been Continental Illinois and Chrysler.
    ...In the beginning this de facto extension of coverage only applied to the banks and S&Ls which were large enough to have a wide financial influence. ... only the eleven largest banks were originally covered, hence the designation "too-big—t o—fail". The government however was rightfully criticized for this policy on the grounds that it put smaller banks at a competitive disadvantage, so, to correct this inequity the government has for several years made it a general policy to pay off all depositors in both large and small failed banks.
    https://scholarworks.umt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=10130&context=etd
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Check this out .
    DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
    EXCHANGE STABILIZATION FUND
    Management’s Discussion and Analysis (Unaudited)
    Fiscal Year 2021
    8
    (Continued)
    reestimates (see Note 11). Amounts due to the General Fund also decreased by $9.6 billion, reflecting a
    decrease in the downward subsidy accrual compared to FY 2020.
    Net Position
    The Net Position of $42.2 billion at September 30, 2021 represents the combined total of the ESF’s
    unexpended appropriations and cumulative results of operations. The $479.3 billion (or 91.9%) decrease
    in FY 2021 was driven by the $478.8 billion rescission of CARES Act appropriated funds.
    2022 report should be coming out soon, March .
    Seems to me to be a bit under funded
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Andrew Ross Sorkin writes in NY Times DealBook:
    "So far, Silicon Valley Bank seems like an outlier, given its unique circumstances and unusual client base — it had very few typical retail customers, as JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest wrote in a note to investors on Friday. But there is already nervousness about some other small and regional banks."
    "In the immediate term, the most pressing problem this presents is for Silicon Valley itself: Venture capital firms that used the bank may struggle to gain access to their money — and possibly that of their limited partners, including pension funds, that had forwarded money intended for investments. This, in turn, may make it hard to fund current and new investments — or to rescue other companies inside and outside their portfolios.
    DealBook is already hearing about secondary sales of private shares to fund both businesses and individuals."

    Link (paywalled)
  • Which Funds Are Taking the Biggest Hit From Silicon Valley Bank and Other Bank Stocks
    https://morningstar.com/articles/1143550/which-funds-are-taking-the-biggest-hit-on-silicon-valley-bank-and-other-bank-stocks
    It's one thing for a fund in general to hold bank stocks. It's another for an active fund with a manager to bet big on SVB. Did these managers not look at the bank's capital/balance sheet and see that it was heavily invested in long-term bonds in a rising rate environment, while also facing tech sector depositor withdrawals? In this regard, Diamond Hill Mid Cap, usually a careful risk-conscious shop, deserves to be dinged. As do, BBH and Sound Shore and Franklin Mutual. From the article:
    In [Diamond Hill Mid Cap's] shareholder commentary from the end of 2022, manager Chris Welch acknowledged the stock was facing difficulties. “Regional banks First Republic and SVB Financial were pressured amid a rising rate environment, which is weighing on net interest margins.”
    Welch singled out the unique position of Silicon Valley Bank. “SVB Financial faced additional headwinds given its exposure to the innovation economy, its primary area of focus—though we believe such an environment offers the company an opportunity to add tremendous value for its clients and cement its leadership position in a lucrative space,” he wrote.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    I just received this from First Republic Bank:

    To Our Valued Clients,
    In light of recent industry events, the last few days have caused uncertainty in the financial markets. We want to take a moment to reinforce the safety and stability of First Republic, reflected in the continued strength of our capital, liquidity and operations.
    Our capital remains strong. Our capital levels are significantly higher than the regulatory requirements for being considered well capitalized.
    Our liquidity remains strong. In addition to our well-diversified deposit base, we continue to have access to over $60 billion of available, unused borrowing capacity at the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank.
    We are here to fully serve you. We stand ready to process transactions and wires, fund loans, answer questions and serve your overall financial needs — as we do every day.
    For almost 40 years, we have operated a simple, straightforward business model centered on taking extraordinary care of our clients. We have successfully navigated various macroeconomic and interest rate environments, and today we have among the industry’s highest rates of client satisfaction and retention.
    FWIW...
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    BBG: "Dick Bove at Odeon Capital Group LLC notes “that reduction in bank deposits and the sharp negative reaction in the financial markets to the SVB developments suggest a deeper discontent with the banking industry’s treatment of their clients and investors.”
    I don't often listen to Bove, but I think he's on to something here -- when individuals see that they're being offered pissant amounts of interest on their money by the bank in an age where can get 4 or 5% from treasuries (and that fact is making frontpage news daily), is it any wonder folks are feeling 'discontented' and looking to move their money?
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Many were puzzled late last year when Silvergate tapped the FHLB for multibillion dollar liquidity loan, and not the Fed Discount Window. Of course, The FHLB was easier then. But there was a lot of questioning of the FHLB's action because it is supposed to support housing, and what was it doing providing support for a crypto bank under a bank run. As it happened, the FHLB called its loan few days ago, just before Silvergate collapsed, and may very well have been the trigger for Silvergate.
    SVB Bank's capital raise filing and efforts hit the market on the day of Silvergate collapse, and that just became DOA.
  • Silicon Valley Bank: Greed and Stupidity Strike Again
    @Old_Joe : Now we know why they call it adventure capital !
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    @LewisBraham
    Why did you jump subjects? Local news never did longform journalism of the sort we're discussing, at least not small papers, even in their postwar heyday (to the 1990s or a bit before). Newsday maybe, if we call that 'local'.
    Roger about their demise and vulture-capital evisceration, sometimes in that order. It's horrible. J-prof Dan Kennedy is an expert and historian in the field (also a successor to me at an alt-weekly looooong ago):
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/02/10/opinion/local-news-startups-are-overcoming-evils-corporate-chain-ownership/
    @linter, I don't know if you are involved in any way, but RS sure as hell has stepped up its investigative / political / digging game the last year or three. A real surprise.
    Your work on your great-aunt makes me think you might be at least a little interested in my slightly similar initiative (filmable bio-novel is the goal) of this grandfather:
    https://davidrmoran.wordpress.com/
    +++
    As I type, PK has just tweeted a smart succinct summary of SVB, 8 parts thus far, comparing it w Madoff affinity fraud in the crypto-bogo era:
    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1634908696806592518
  • Silicon Valley Bank: Greed and Stupidity Strike Again
    Snippet of article written by ALFONSO PECCATIELLO (ALF) -substack
    "banks with assets below $250 billion (and a few more requirements) are not subject to the tighter regulatory scrutiny like big banks: no liquidity ratios (LCR), no net stable funding requirements (NSFR) forcing you to diversify your funding base and light stress tests. This allowed SVB to run wild with its investment portfolio and funding base concentration.
    SVB’s management repeatedly lobbied to increase the cap for lax regulatory scrutiny and conveniently remained 20-30 billion below the $250 billion threshold?
    It is hard to deny a decent amount of moral hazard was at play here
    SVB was not applying basic risk management practices, and exposing its investors and depositors to a gigantic amount of risk.
    Economically speaking, a $120 bn bond portfolio with a 5.6y non-hedged duration means that every 10 bps move higher in 5-year interest rate lost the bank almost $700 million.
    100 bps? $7 billion economic loss.
    200 bps? $14 billion economic loss.
    Basically the entire bank’s capital wiped out.
    As the tech/IPO boom faded, deposits stopped coming in 2022.
    Recently, depositors started taking their money away and forced SVB to realize this huge losses on bond investments to service deposit outflows.
    The concentrated nature of the deposit base and awful risk management meant SVB went belly up real quick. Many people are now calling for a blanket bailout.
    But the evidence that moral hazard was at play are too big to be ignored.
    And we should not reward moral hazard."
    Author speaks to incompetence and/or moral hazard. Notes that in DEC 21, SVB DID HEDGE their portfolio but NOT in DEC 22.
    Oy Vey.
    what other banks are being run like this? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
  • Silicon Valley Bank: Greed and Stupidity Strike Again
    Well, I'm not the only one who questions the present banking oversight/systems failure situation.
    Edited excerpts from a current Wall Street Journal article:
    Silicon Valley Bank’s failure boils down to a simple misstep: It grew too fast using borrowed short-term money from depositors who could ask to be repaid at any time, and invested it in long-term assets that it was unable, or unwilling, to sell.
    In addition, nearly 90% of SVB’s deposits were uninsured, making them more prone to flight in times of trouble since the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. doesn’t stand behind them. The Federal Reserve was the primary federal regulator for both banks.
    “A $200 billion bank should not fail because of liquidity,” said Eric Rosengren, who served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston from 2007 to 2021 and was its top bank regulator before that. “They should have known their portfolio was heavily weighted toward venture capital, and venture-capital firms don’t want to be taking risk with their deposits. So there was a good chance if venture-capital portfolio companies started pulling out funds, they’d do it en masse.”
    To be sure, banks regularly borrow short-term to lend for longer periods of time. But SVB concentrated its balance sheet in long-dated assets, essentially reaching for yield to bolster results, at the worst possible time, just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign. That left it sitting on big unrealized losses, making it more susceptible to customers pulling funds.
    The banking industry as a whole had some $620 billion in unrealized losses on securities at the end of last year, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which began highlighting those late last year.
    Another regulatory issue: accounting and capital rules that allow banks to ignore mark-to-market losses on some securities if they intend to hold them to maturity. At SVB, the bucket holding these securities—consisting largely of mortgage bonds issued by government-sponsored entities—is where the biggest capital hole is.
    The idea behind such a bucket is that it insulates an institution from short-term price volatility. The problem this poses is two-fold.
    First, a bank may not be able to hold such securities to maturity if it faces a cash crunch, as happened at SVB. Yet selling the securities would force the bank to recognize potentially massive losses.
    Second, the treatment of the securities means banks like SVB are discouraged from selling when losses emerge, potentially causing problems to fester and grow. That appears to have been the case at SVB and many other banks as rising interest rates in 2022 caused large losses in bond markets.
    Banks have an additional incentive to pile into Treasurys. They have to hold less capital against such holdings, supposedly because they are risk-free. However, this means banks are holding less capital to absorb losses, and Treasurys can lose value due to changes in interest rates.
    Others said monetary policy over the past decade played a role. The Fed “suppressed the yield curve and made it very clear to the banking industry that [it] would do this for a considerable period,” said Thomas Hoenig, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and former vice chairman of the FDIC. “So bankers are making decisions based on that message and based on that policy, and they fill their portfolio up with government securities of varying maturities, and they say they’re going to hold them to maturity.”
    That suggests the need for regulators to take a broader view of the risks in the financial system.