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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The bucket strategy is flawed …
    No matter how you tweak it, it seems to me the key is to have enough $ in stable value investments ( ie cash and/or short term bonds) to avoid having to sell during a prolonged down market just to get money to live on.
    How long the downturn lasts is obviously unknowable in advance, but it could be longer than 2020 and 2008.
    I have not read many ideas about handling RMDs in the same way, although you can reinvest the $ if you do not need to spend them all, or I assume transfer equities to your taxable account. But there is the "tax" haircut that is required.
    Anybody have ideas on that?
  • The bucket strategy is flawed …
    So the cash bucket certainly needs to be adequate to cover 3 to 5 years of those normal expenses.
    @Old_Joe - Nice detailed job outlining conventional wisdom. But ISTM that’s exactly the notion the author is arguing against. If I’m reading him right, he thinks the risk of losing out on potential market gains while sitting on that bucket of cash is greater than the risk of having to pull that money out on a “as needed” basis when markets are lower. (That’s because markets usually go up)
    It should be noted,
    (1) the article is from 2020 when cash yielded 1-2%, much lower than today’s near 5%.
    (2) His recommended “investment” portfolio is quite conservative with up to 50% sitting in intermediate-term Treasuries / TIPS.
    Enjoying all the thoughts folks!
  • Relying On Stock Investments For Income After Retiring
    If you get dividends on a mutual fund more often than yearly, it might work for you to reinvest the dividends and realize the cap gains, and sock those away for things like roofs, cars, heat pumps.
    YMMV.
    Could have posted this in the bucket thread too.
  • The bucket strategy is flawed …
    ”Beyond cash, all a retiree needs is one "bucket" for investments. The portfolio would hold between 50 and 75% in equities for those following the 4% rule or similar retirement spending strategies. The remaining 25 to 50% would be held in intermediate term Treasuries and TIPS.”
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/08/02/the-bucket-strategy-is-broken-heres-a-better-way/?sh=1715f5b31b33
  • Relying On Stock Investments For Income After Retiring
    In term of cash flow, the cash bucket is secured based on your annual living expense minus social security and pension $ for say 3-5 years. Emergency house/car repair can be factored into that cash bucket and back fill that over several years.
    Some people have a second bucket in between consisting of bonds and balanced funds to dampen the market volatility and the possibility of prolong drawdown. Dividend growth funds can be part of this strategy. You can decide the % that you feel comfortable to fill the cash bucket every year. Personally, I use both balanced funds and dividend growth funds.
    The third bucket is consisting of stocks/stock funds for capital growth.
  • CD Question
    I have a financial link between my Schwab Taxable Account and my Capital One Bank Account. I will transfer money back and forth, between these two financial institutions, depending on where the best CD rates are available--very fast and simple. For liquidity purposes, I do maintain a significant investment in SWVXX Money Market Account, which continues to pay well over 5%.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    Thanks @Derf. That helps.
    However, I get the sense this goes beyond the simple question in your referenced quotation: (“Does anyone remember why …?”)
    Here’s a couple excerpts from Morningstar’s analysis of RSIVX:
    “David K. Sherman brings over 13 years of portfolio management experience to the table. It is encouraging to see that the strategies managed by Sherman have outperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, with an average Morningstar Rating of 4.7. Isolating the analysis to the fund at hand, David Sherman has delivered a mixed track record, leading the average category peer but lagging the category benchmark for the past 10-year period ….
    “Undergoing some change … Co-founder and co-chief investment officer Mitch Rubin departed the firm in November 2022 on the heels of weak performance across the firm’s equity strategies. Meanwhile, RiverPark’s assets under management has declined 35% since December 2020 as outflows across most of its products have been persistent in recent years.”

    -
    Since Mr. Sherman ( @davidsherman ) sometimes posts here, I’m assuming @BaluBalu’s question is intended for him. ISTM an informal / mostly anonymous / lightly moderated forum like this may not be the appropriate setting for an extended dialogue with a fund manager. Likely, the reasons the fund did not meet @BaluBalu’s expectations are complex. I suspect they may have already been addressed in the fund’s Annual / Semi-Annual reports from that period. In the absence of such, than it would seem appropriate for past or current clients to contact Mr. Sherman or one of his subordinates directly.
    Link to M* https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/rsivx/quote
  • CD Question
    My experience over the last month is that I can find much better rates on CDs directly from Banks, than if they are offered through Brokerages. I have bought 12 month CDs from Capital One at 5.25%, but brokerage CDs through Schwab are under 5%. I only used Capital One because that is where I do my personal banking, and there are CDs even higher directly from other Banks than at Capital One. I am actually a bit frustrated with Brokerage offered CDs because they are so much lower than what is offered directly from banks. Go to depositaccounts.com or bankrate.com and you can find multiple bank offerings higher than what I can get through Schwab
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    I never got an answer for my perhaps impolite question asking why RSIIX was not able to protect investors better during March 2020.
    @BaluBalu -
    I won’t attempt to shed any more light on the financial environment in March 2020 as you are more than up to speed on that. And my apologies for even considering otherwise.. But where is the original “question” you are referring to? Was it in another thread somewhere? Whom specifically was it addressed to?
    @Soupkitchen’s initial inquiry is rather general. ISTM he wonders only in a general sense whether board members think bonds will outperform cash going forward. I think it’s safe to assume he / we know that cash is the more stable asset of the two. You have apparently chosen to add another component to the discussion. . That’s fine. Is there another thread somewhere with your question? If so, kindly provide a link. Or, maybe you could quote the message in its entirety again. Sorry for any extra trouble it might cause you.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    Hi @hank, There are several posts in this forum comparing RSIIX and OSTIX, including posts by RSIIX manager himself. I simply wanted to know what caused RSIIX not to be able to protect investors during March 2020 as well as OSTIX did. The difference in their drawn downs was meaningful. I am fine if the manager or someone that knows the answer does not want to share. I would rather have the question go unanswered than be BSed by self appointed proxies, and I am sure you would understand that. I will also accept a private message if that is more convenient for someone.
    (Just an FYI, I am very familiar with the investing environment during Covid and GFC and the related US Federal Reserve and US Govt actions. I try not to pose questions to the forum for which I can get answers by googling and / or using a generative AI app.)
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    So, what happened in March 2020?
    Covid spread around the world, and panic and uncertainty were everywhere, think about what happened to businesses, people, and commerce. All = black swan = sell everything.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?

    ”I never got an answer for my perhaps impolite question asking why RSIIX was not able to protect investors better during March 2020.”
    There were serious liquidity issues in the financial system, beginning in early March 2020. My ultra-short (investment grade) fund at the time (TRBUX) fell off a cliff for a few weeks before slowly recovering to near its nominal $10.00 NAV. The crisis was so extreme across the bond markets that the Federal Reserve announced a plan to back investment grade corporate bonds (something it had never done before) a few days into the crisis (which in turn sent those bonds’ prices soaring, led to an equity rally and calmed the markets. There are times (albeit rare) when T-Bills trump lesser quality paper - no matter how well researched it might be.
    These types of issues can surface rapidly and unexpectedly, but are rare. The other one that stands to mind is at the beginning of the ‘07-‘09 financial crisis. Early in, the Fed stepped in to back money market funds, some of which would have fallen below their $1.00 NAV.
    Sorry if this has already been answered or if I’ve missed the point of the question. I didn’t understand FD either.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @MikeM and @Mark: I'm an adherent of the CG ETFs, also. CGGR, CGGO, and CGDV in three different family accounts. I never owned American MFs, probably because of loads, altho I do have access to Washington Mutual in my retirement account. Capital Group seems to know how to select effective teams.
    I like what Harbor Funds has done in the past in choosing outside managers for actively managed funds. With their ETF lineup, a Jennison Associates group runs WINN and a team of Europeans at CWorldWide Asset Management has OSEA. FWIIW, Harbor did not do well with MFs run by a single or star manager (such as Marsico). For ETFs following an index, it may be that a single person can handle the job.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    .....
    Funds use the current yield trick to boost current yield by buying premium bonds (at the expense of NAV deterioration), or go for gains by buying discount bonds. While both have the same YTM, the effects on current fund income and taxation are different.
    I created an example to show this:
    10 Yr Bond in 5% YTM Environment, par 100
    3% coupon, price 84.56, current yield 3.55% << YTM
    7% coupon, price 115.44, current yield 6.06% >> YTM
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    RSIIX fell in March 2020 because it was a black swan, even RPHIX with much lower volatility fell. Investing based on a black swan is a bad idea long term.
    When rates are not stable, especially when they go up/down more stable funds are recommended such as RPHIX, CBUDX, CBLDX, RSIIX, DHEAX,OSTIX.
    RPHIX is the closest to a MM, the next step is CBUDX and the rest.
    I'm invested at 99+% in 2 very low SD bond funds + high yield + good performance in 2023 and YTD.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    RSIIX was +0.15% yesterday if my quote services are correct.
    I never got an answer for my perhaps impolite question asking why RSIIX was not able to protect investors better during March 2020. Not that I am anticipating another pandemic but I always like to understand what happened. Other than that one incident, I think it is a good fund.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @JD_co, I've added to CGBL over the past few months also. Is there better? Who knows. Seems to be doing well since inception compared to a few other stalwarts, including PRWCX. American Funds/Capital Group has been running great balanced mutual funds forever. I don't know about tax efficiency though. My investment is in taxed deferred.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    @BaluBalu, %coupon adjusted for current price is NOT YTM (or close to it).
    YTM come from IRR or XIRR like Functions in Excel, or P-A-F-i analysis on generic calculators.
    Funds use the current yield trick to boost current yield by buying premium bonds (at the expense of NAV deterioration), or go for gains by buying discount bonds. While both have the same YTM, the effects on current fund income and taxation are different.
  • Estimated taxes
    My tax liability fluctuates significantly from year to year. Every other year I minimize ordinary income (e.g. limit Roth conversions, use tax-free MMFs) so that I can harvest cap gains at 0% tax rate. In the off years, I minimize cap gains and increase ordinary income (e.g. increase Roth conversion amounts).
    MAGI may be similar from year to year but taxes are very different.
    If some cap gains are taxed at 0% and some at 15%, then every dollar added to ordinary income moves a 0% cap gains dollar into the 15% bracket. So that extra dollar of ordinary income effectively gets taxed at 22% (ordinary rate) + 15% (cap gains rate).
    Similar idea to bunching deductions. Maximize deductions in a year when you're itemizing, and minimize deductions in a year when you're taking a standard deduction.
  • the caveat to "stocks for the long-term"
    I cringe when people talk about stocks for all times and talk only about good times. People have to deal with markets they are in. So, these historical data are useful for perspectives.
    In the charts above, I tried to add SP500 but couldn't. I looked up SP500 index data:
    12/1964 84.75
    12/1974 68.56
    That was -19.10% index return during that 10-yr period. I couldn't find reinvested SP500 TR for that period - I think that it still would be negative. In that time, VWELX was just flat, but DODBX and FPURX were positive. Did the people investing in 1965 know this? If not, what would have been a prudent course, especially if decumulation in retirement was expected.
    10-yr periods ending around dot.com bubble, the GFC, the 2020 Pandemic were difficult too. So, that is the lesson - bad stuff happens, and occasionally.