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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • American Funds - first timer
    OS: "The article does not state wheather there is a wrap fee on the account that would hold F1 shares or a transaction fee for the purchases themselves. I'm thinking, there are going to be some fees somewhere associated with F share purchases"
    Repeating myself: Schwab and Fidelity offer 57 American Funds NTF (e.g. CIBFX at Schwab and at Fidelity). This is a new arrangement that was set up a couple of months ago.
    Check out the links I provided. If Schwab were to add fees on its AF NTF funds, it would be cheapening its OneSource™ brand and SelectList® service. I realize that one should be suspicious of things that seem too good to be true, but given that lots of other load families are making their funds available load-waved, NTF, but carrying 0.25% 12b-1 fees, does this move by AF really seem too good to be true, or just good?
    BobC: "C-class shares should be outlawed. "
    While I concur with the sentiment, I fail to see the difference between class C and wrap accounts. I'll use the same fund as above: Capital Income Builder, to compare.
    Class C (CIBCX):      1.40% ER + 0% advisor costs = 1.40% total cost of ownership
    Wrap/Class F-2 (CAIFX): 0.40% ER + 1% wrap fee = 1.40% total cost of ownership
    Wrap/Class F-1 (CIBFX): 0.67% ER + 1% wrap fee = 1.67% total cost of ownership
    Reverse churning appears to be a similar risk either way.
  • 1099-DIV for VGSLX
    As pass through entities, REITs generally don't report their breakdown of ordinary divs, cap gains, and return of capital until January 31. Likewise, funds pass through income, so they can't begin computing what they're passing through until they have info from their underlying REITs. Hence the delay.
    Here's Vanguard's FAQ on real estate funds, and American Century's page about their real estate fund tax reporting:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/FAQTaxesContent.jsp#1099REIT
    https://www.americancentury.com/content/americancentury/direct/en/investment-planning/tax-center/real-estate-funds.html
    I take it as a given that real estate funds report late. What intrigues me is why T. Rowe Price singles out PRSVX in addition to its real asset funds (including real estate) for late reporting.:
    https://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Planning-&-Research/Tax-Planning/Prepare-Your-Taxes/Tax-Information-Mailing-Schedule
  • 1099-DIV for VGSLX
    Login into vanguard website. Look at the dividends/cap gains tab. I just had a look at my taxable/non taxable holdings for div/cap gains, for balancing purposes.
  • Bond Market Is Ridiculously Oversold – Jeff Gundlach
    @hank - ok then. Like I said, capital punishment for CNBC and Gundlach. First print authors had quotas, not Gundlach also has quota to appear on TV from his marketing team.
    Utter nonsense. I hope this is not suggestion subpar performance from Gundlach going forward. I recall a certain fund manager who did too many appearances in media for no freakin' reason and then sucked up the place mightily.
    I'm not buying any more DSENX.
  • Ping Junkster. What would be your short list of Buy & Hold High Yield Bond Funds?
    @MikeM2 This is way more than you are bargaining for but am just now working on a free update to something I wrote long ago. Below is a small part of that and a work still in progress. So I apologize for the tedious read. As you will see below, I am not a fan of diversification. I was unable to attach the equity curves mentioned below. If someone can explain how to attach a document from my computer on the board would be glad to do so. The part on bonds is at the very end.
    "So let’s get into my particular style of trading. It may well not be anyone’s cup of tea and that suits me just fine. First off you have to know I have an extreme aversion to risk. Such an aversion that some could argue I had no business whatsoever trying to make it as a trader. So to compensate for my risk aversion I developed a methodology that eliminates risk and volatility as much as possible. I realize the academics might say otherwise, but to me volatility *is* risk. Unlike most traders who thrive on volatility, it is my enemy. My primary goal as a trader is to NOT lose or as little as possible. To cut my losses in the blink of an aye. To not think/analyse - just react when price moves against me.
    Once I changed my mindset back in the spring of 1985, my goal was to make money every month. A goal that has remained my primary constant to this very day. I could best achieve that goal by low risk, yet consistently profitable strategies. Hitting singles and doubles and then using the compound effect to accumulate wealth over the years.
    For me, profitable low risk trading and consistently compounding my capital over time can be summarized in three words - TIGHT RISING CHANNELS. Tight rising channels have little to no volatility. With the tight rising channel pattern and its inherent low volatility that enables me to deploy (in increments) 100% of my nest egg. So what does a tight rising channel look like. It looks much like my equity curves as previously shown in this update of my futures trading and my mutual fund trading.
    You may wonder how I handled tight rising channels while day trading stock index futures - an asset class notorious for its wild intraday swings. What I did was uncover three particular early morning patterns which more often than not led to later day tight rising channels in the futures. I uncovered these patterns from my constant monitoring of the market and the stock index futures via the CNBC tape. Unfortunately the CNBC tape nowadays is a different animal of that back in the 80s and 90s.
    I have discussed these day trading patterns ad nauseam in books, magazine articles, and seminars so no need to go into detail on them here. Plus, I overlayed these patterns with a host of indicators, primarily sentiment, on whether or not to take the trade. That is where the art of trading came into play. These patterns were such that I traded maybe 3 or 4 times a week at best.
    While consistently profitable as a part time day trader, because of my aversion to risk I was unable to ever trade more than one contract. The stock index futures are leveraged vehicles and leverage can be a killer. My monthly profits were a very modest and mundane $716 a month over a 122 month period. I had other part time employment which paid the bills. This enabled me to roll my day trading profits into the trading of mutual funds. That is where I made my real money as a trader. In fact, there were two monthly periods where I made more money in the funds than the entire 122 months I day traded the stock index futures.
    So why mutual funds? Primarily because since they are diversified with a large number of holdings, they are more prone to tight rising channels when they are in uptrends. Secondarily, everyone trades the futures, options, and individual equities, while very few trade mutual funds. That alone, not following the trading herd, is reason enough for me. My entire life I have never been a follower or into grouthink. So I would like to believe that streak of independence is also what led me into the trading of mutual funds.
    In the 90s, I was focused most on trading sector funds - technology, healthcare, leisure, etc. as well as small cap growth funds. While Fidelity had a host of sector funds, they also imposed short term trading fees. That led me to INVESCO which also had several sector funds and where there were no fees for in and out trading. I also had a trading account at the now defunct Strong Investments.
    I believe a large part of anyone’s success has an element of luck - being in the right place a the right time. I could not have been any luckier than having my accounts at INVESCO and Strong. I could trade free of any commissions and fees and as often as I wanted. I fully participated in the new fund effect back in those days being that both firms brought new funds to the market frequently. I could also dateline international funds whenever the datelining pattern occurred.
    Datelining and the constant in and out trading without fees are now a thing of the past. But I adjusted. As my account grew over time, my aversion to risk became even more extreme. That led me to the trading of bond mutual funds, more specifically high yield corporates, high yield munis, and floating rate. This was an easy transition as junk bonds had always been my one true love in the financial arena dating back to the early 90s when I began trading them along with the sector funds. The bond funds were custom made for me because they had even tighter rising channels due to even less volatility. So it was much easier to deploy 100% of my trading capital there."












    










  • Spencer Stewart leaves Grandeur Peak
    (From an email)
    Grandeur Peak Global Advisors
    Dear Fellow Shareholders,
    Spencer Stewart has decided to follow his heart and pursue a new path. As a result, he will be leaving Grandeur Peak shortly. Spence joined us in August of 2011, just after we had set up the firm. His first day with Grandeur Peak was on a plane to South Korea, and he has probably logged more miles than anyone else at the firm since then. Spence has been a great colleague, and has proven that he is a skilled investor. We are very grateful for his dedication and hard work to help us bring the vision of Grandeur Peak to life.
    As of January 30th, Spence is no longer a lead portfolio manager of the Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund. Spence and I have been the managers of the Fund since its inception in 2013. For now, I will be the lead portfolio manager and Zach Larkin will continue as the guardian portfolio manager. Instead of immediately replacing Spence with another co-manager, Stuart Rigby will step in as a senior analyst to help in our oversight of the portfolio. Since the Fund is essentially a carve-out of our global portfolio, the management of the Fund is already part of our team’s daily portfolio considerations.
    Beyond Spence’s investment insights and role managing the Emerging Markets Fund, he is also the primary analyst on roughly three dozen companies, so he leaves sizeable shoes to fill. Fortunately, because of our structure, the entire team is engaged in vetting and selecting our portfolio holdings, we have multiple people involved in the day-to-day management of each fund, and we have a secondary analyst on every owned company. In this respect, we already have people in place to fill the hole.
    We wish Spence the very best in selecting his next pathway. We will certainly miss him around the office (and on the road).
    If you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to our client team (Mark Siddoway, Amy Johnson, or Eric Huefner). You are welcome to reach out to me as well.
    Best Regards,
    Blake
    Blake Walker
    CEO
    [email protected]
    801-384-0002
    The objective of all Grandeur Peak Funds is long-term growth of capital.
    RISKS:
    Mutual fund investing involves risks and loss of principal is possible. Investing in small and micro cap funds will be more volatile and loss of principal could be greater than investing in large cap or more diversified funds.
    Investing in foreign securities entails special risks, such as currency fluctuations and political uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the prospectus. Investments in emerging markets are subject to the same risks as other foreign securities and may be subject to greater risks than investments in foreign countries with more established economies and securities markets.
    An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus, containing this and other information, visit www.grandeurpeakglobal.com or call 1-855-377-PEAK (7325). Please read it carefully before investing.
    Grandeur Peak Funds will deduct a 2.00% redemption proceeds fee on Fund shares held 60 days or less. For more complete information including charges, risks and expenses, read the prospectus carefully.
    Grandeur Peak Funds are distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. (“ADI”). Mark Siddoway, Amy Johnson, and Eric Huefner are registered representatives of ADI.
    globe1_bottom_left.gif
  • Ping Junkster. What would be your short list of Buy & Hold High Yield Bond Funds?
    Hi @BobC
    You noted: "OSTIX comes as close to buy-and-hold as any. Although it is not a high-yield fund, that is where M* puts it. It's downside protection is evident from its 2008 return vs the pure HY funds. I would not even want to own a pure HY fund because of this."
    >>>My personal view of this fund from its current composition is a short-term high yield bond fund with a touch of AAA bond holdings and some form of "cash". My recall is during 2012 the composition of this fund moved away from a more diverse multi-sector bond fund. I do not have access to its composition from prior years. As to it being moved to HY within M*, they didn't have a "slot" to match, eh? OR that if most of the fund was moving to HY beginning in 2012, the proper slot may be appropriate.
    For those wandering into this discussion and not familiar with prior years, I must presume that the downside protection you indicate in 2008 was from the fund having little exposure to HY bonds during most of or at the least during the last half of 2008.
    From the current prospectus:
    The Osterweis Strategic Income Fund invests primarily in income bearing securities. Osterweis Capital Management, LLC (the “Adviser”) takes a strategic approach and may invest in a wide array of fixed income securities of various credit qualities (e.g., investment grade or non-investment grade) and maturities (e.g., long term, immediate or short term). The Adviser seeks to control risk through rigorous credit analysis, economic analysis, interest rate forecasts and sector trend review, and is not constrained by any particular duration or credit quality targets. The Fund’s fixed income investments may include, but are not limited to, U.S. Federal and Agency obligations, investment grade corporate debt, domestic high yield debt or “junk bonds” (higher-risk, lower-rated fixed income securities such as those rated lower than BBB- by S&P or lower than Baa3 by Moody’s), floating-rate debt, convertible debt, collateralized debt, municipal debt, foreign debt (including emerging markets) and/or depositary receipts and preferred stock. The Fund may invest up to 100% of its net assets in dividend-paying equities of companies of any size – large, medium and small. Additionally, the Fund may also invest up to 100% of its assets in foreign debt (including emerging markets) and/or depositary receipts. The Fund’s investments in any one sector may exceed 25% of its net assets. The Fund’s allocation among various fixed income securities is based on the portfolio managers’ assessment of opportunities for total return relative to the risk of each type of investment.
    As to M* categories in general. We all know not every fund will have a proper fit. Not unlike, FAGIX ; which is listed as a high yield bond fund. To the point of holding about 80% of the portfolio with HY bonds, this fund also usually has about 20% in equity and to further blend the mix; 15-20% of the total mix is also non-U.S.
    FRIFX is another "stray" fund. Its performance will never show properly against the real estate category, as this fund maintains about a 50% mix of real estate related equity and bonds.
    End of 2016 composition, OSTIX
    The below is relative to the really nasty market melt period. Click onto OSTIX for the chart.
    OSTIX SPHIX IEF Sept 11, 2008 thru Dec 18, 2008
    Disclosure: our house is not invested in this fund
    Anyone know how to find this funds holdings during 2008?
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Ping Junkster. What would be your short list of Buy & Hold High Yield Bond Funds?
    Yes, a good thread. bee, AGDYX is closed to new investors at Scottrade. I have traded it in past bull markets and you can't go wrong there. As for VWEHX vs PRHYX the reason I like Price better than Vanguard is Vanguard is run a bit too conservatively for my tastes. Also a very long term and underappreciated manager at Price. But even Price is a tad conservative but that is what I would want were I a long term investor. As for 2008 and junk bonds, few realize that worst bear of all time was completely recouped in early August of 2009 (the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II index) Something that can't be said for equities.
    I am not a fan of Larry Swedroe he of the managed futures funds and the interval funds where you don't have ready access to your funds. But I can see his point where junk bonds are a *flawed* investment. And that is because they are too correlated to equities and hence why not just hold the later.
    The reason I *trade* junk corporate, junk muni, and bank loan mutual funds is because when they are in bull phases they are the most trend persistent low volatility things out there. That way I can trade them with 100% of my capital something I can't do with more volatile instruments. I am obsessive compulsive about losing and drawdowns. In the 90s where it was a straight up market I was just as obsessive but traded sector equity funds in the same way I now trade the bonds.
  • recession in horizon
    The Perennial Obsession With Constantly Predicting Recessions
    James Picerno @ The Capital Spectator from 6/5/2016
    According to a variety of “experts,” the US has been on the cusp of a new contraction ever since the last recession ended more than seven years ago. Yet the US economy has continued to expand,Predicting otherwise, continually, is a staple among the usual suspects. The projections, however, are conspicuous only for being wrong, so far. In time, a new recession will strike. But forever seeing a new downturn around the next corner is a short cut to failure, whether you’re managing an investment portfolio or running a business. Unless, of course, you’re in the media business or selling books and newsletters that traffic in disaster scenarios.
    As for rolling the dice by reading the headlines du jour, well, let’s just say that history hasn’t been kind to this approach, as the following examples from recent history remind:
    Included :recession predictions during the past several years from Bill Gross to Larry Summers including this one that still has 15+ months for a possible outcome.
    If [Donald Trump] were elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months.
    Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary, via The Washington Post, Jun. 5, 2016
    https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-perennial-obsession-with-constantly-predicting-recessions/
  • Bond Market Is Ridiculously Oversold – Jeff Gundlach
    Guys, I'm not looking to understand bonds. I don't claim to be at expert at anything, but that's not my question. I'm just trying to understand what the heck the Video was about.
    For instance, here's one interpretation I want to offer (and you guys can tell me if that's what he is saying or something else)
    People sell bonds when they expect interest rates to rise. If "bonds are oversold", then that means Gundlach thinks people's expectations are not going to pan out in future. In other words, interest rates will not go up meaningfully, and holding bonds and making interest would be a good thing. As to over what "term" he is referring to is anyone's guess. If he is talking short term, then I propose capital punishment for him and everyone at CNBC.
    What say you?
  • Virtus' Emerging Markets Equity Income and Essential Resources Funds to liquidate
    Virtus Investment Partners Prices Public Offerings of Common Stock and Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock in Connection with Pending Acquisition of RidgeWorth Investments
    Virtus Investment Partners (NASDAQ: VRTS ) -1.7% priced its concurrent underwritten public offerings of 910,000 shares at $110/share and 1M convertible preferred shares @ 7.25% at a liquidation preference of $100/share.
    Net proceeds along the with cash on hand, proceeds from the sale of investments and borrowings pursuant to its committed debt financing, to finance its previously announced acquisition of RidgeWorth Investments and pay related fees and expenses.
    Dividends on the mandatory convertible preferred stock will be payable on a cumulative basis when, as and if declared by Virtus' board of directors, at an annual rate of 7.25 percent on the liquidation preference of $100.00 per share. If declared, these dividends will be paid in cash, or, subject to certain limitations, in shares of Virtus' common stock (or a combination) on February 1, May 1, August 1, and November 1 of each year, commencing May 1, 2017, and continuing to, and including, February 1, 2020.
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/virtus-investment-partners-prices-public-offerings-of-common-stock-and-mandatory-convertible-preferred-stock-in-connection-with-pending-acquisition-of-ridgeworth-investments-300398043.html
    Virtus Fund Family Data Pages Assets $22,598 bl
    http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundFamily/Snapshot.asp?symbol=0C00001YUH
    RidgeWorth Mutual Fund Family Data Pages Assets $16,780 bl
    http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundFamily/Snapshot.asp?symbol=0C00001Z4I
  • Janus International Equity Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312517020127/d336634d497.htm
    497 1 d336634d497.htm 497
    Janus Investment Fund
    Janus International Equity Fund
    Supplement dated January 27, 2017
    to Currently Effective Prospectuses
    The Board of Trustees (the “Trustees”) of Janus Investment Fund has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate Janus International Equity Fund (the “Fund”) with such liquidation effective on or about March 30, 2017 or at such other time as may be authorized by the Trustees (“Liquidation Date”). Termination of the Fund is expected to occur as soon as practicable following liquidation.
    Effective at the close of business February 3, 2017, the Fund will no longer accept investments by new shareholders. The Fund may be required to make a distribution of any income and/or capital gains of the Fund in connection with its liquidation.
    Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares or exchange their shares for shares of another Janus fund which they are eligible to purchase at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. Effective at the close of business February 3, 2017, any applicable contingent deferred sales charges (“CDSC”) charged by the Fund will be waived for redemptions or exchanges through the Liquidation Date. Exchanges by Class A shareholders into Class A Shares of another Janus fund are not subject to any applicable initial sales charge. For shareholders holding shares through an intermediary, check with your intermediary regarding other Janus funds and share classes offered through your intermediary.
    If a shareholder has not redeemed their shares as of the Liquidation Date, the shareholder’s account will be automatically redeemed and proceeds will be sent to the shareholder of record. For shareholders of Class D Shares investing in a tax-deferred account, the shares will be placed in Janus Government Money Market Fund.
    To prepare for the closing and liquidation of the Fund, the Fund’s portfolio managers may increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Fund expenses and meet redemption requests. As a result, the Fund may deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and accordingly cease being managed to meet its investment objective during the liquidation of the Fund.
    Additionally, any asset reductions and increase in cash and similar instruments could adversely affect the Fund’s short-term performance prior to the Liquidation Date. The Fund will incur transaction costs, such as brokerage commissions, when selling portfolio securities as a result of its plan to liquidate and terminate. These transaction costs may adversely affect performance.
    The redemption or exchange of shares held by a shareholder will generally be considered a taxable event. A shareholder should consult their personal tax adviser concerning their particular tax situation.
    A shareholder may obtain additional information by calling their plan sponsor, broker-dealer, or financial institution, or by contacting a Janus representative at 1-877-335-2687 (or 1-800-525-3713 if you hold shares directly with Janus Capital). ...
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    Back on the topic of what we are BUYING / SELLING /CONSIDERING...
    I had loaded up on yieldy stuff when it sold off after the election (muni-CEFs, Pimco taxable CEFs, preferred-CEFs REITs). In the past couple of weeks, I rotated out of those that went up the most (e.g. PIMCO muni-CEFs), and replaced SOME of those proceeds into other muni-CEFs which had not participated so much.
    With the remainder of the proceeds, I've been opening/re-entering what I presume will be lower-beta bond OEFs (e.g. PMZDX, SPFPX) and adding to my positions in ACVVX - a pretty decent market-neutral fund and PIMIX (Pimco Income). -- Basically trying to lock-in some gains and dial-down some of the beta in my fixed-income positions to lower-beta options.
    In my 401k, will likely be selling down my 27% allocation in PTTRX; proceeds into the SV.
  • Seeking a recommending for investing in MLPs.
    I thought CEM, a closed end fund, would provide capital appreciation for me without the headache of the K-1 tax form. I could not have gone into the MLP market at a worse time, so my tale is cautionary. I'm a lousy timer and CEFs can exacerbate errors.
  • Relatively poor funds in 401k - Need help
    Hi,
    Could you please help me in identifying better choices in the following? I have IRAs with Vangard and TDA, where I have superb choices and invested in funds ike VDIGX, VHCOX, ARTKX, FPACX, AKREX, SFGIX, GPGOX, etc.
    There are some good funds like OAKBX, Janus Enterprise, V'rd health care, bond funds, index funds, etc. in this list, but overall disappointing choices in my opinion.
    I am comfortable with my allocation %ages for various asset classes, so where I need the advice is just in identifying good funds, not overall asses allocation. Appreciate all of your help.
    LCap
    ****
    Janus Enterprise Fund Class N (JDMNX) Stock
    American Beacon Large Cap Value Fund Class Institutional (AADEX) Stock
    Fidelity® Capital Appreciation Fund - Class K (FCAKX) Stock
    Fidelity® 500 Index Fund - Institutional Class (FXSIX) Stock
    Fidelity® Large Cap Growth Index Fund - Premium Class (FSUPX) Stock
    Fidelity® Large Cap Value Index Fund - Premium Class (FLCHX) Stock
    MCap
    ****
    Fidelity® Mid Cap Index Fund - Premium Class (FSCKX) Stock
    MFS Mid Cap Value Fund Class R6 (MVCKX) Stock
    Fidelity® Extended Market Index Fund - Premium Class (FSEVX) Stock
    Scap
    ****
    Northern Small Cap Value Fund (NOSGX) Stock
    Loomis Sayles Small Cap Value Fund Class N (LSCNX) Stock
    UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund Class P (BISCX) Stock
    Fidelity® Small Cap Index Fund - Premium Class (FSSVX) Stock
    Balanced
    ********
    Oakmark Equity And Income Fund Investor Class (OAKBX) Blend
    Sector
    ******
    Cohen & Steers Realty Shares Fund (CSRSX) Stock
    Vanguard Health Care Fund Admiral Shares (VGHAX) Stock
    International/Global
    ********************
    Deutsche Global Small Cap Fund Institutional Class (KGDIX) Stock
    Invesco Developing Markets Fund R5 Class (GTDIX) Stock
    Fidelity® International Discovery Fund - Class K (FIDKX) Stock
    Bonds
    *****
    Fidelity® Total Bond Fund (FTBFX) Bond
    Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Admiral Shares (VAIPX) Bond
    Money Market
    ************
    Putnam Stable Value Fund Bond
    Fidelity® Investments Money Market Government Portfolio - Class I (FIGXX) Short Term
    Retirement Series
    *****************
    FIAM Target Date 2060 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2055 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2050 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2045 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2040 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2035 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2030 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2025 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2020 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2015 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2010 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date 2005 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
    FIAM Target Date Income Commingled Pool Class S Blend
  • Investors race back to U.S. bond funds
    Inflated Optimism?
    Economic Overview:

    Week Ending January 20, 2017 © 2017 Payden & Rygel All rights reserved.
    From 2011 to 2015, the world inflation rate fell year after year. By 2016, the world was abuzz with deflation mania, fearing a further decline in the rate of inflation. Instead, as commodity prices recovered and global growth found its footing, consumer prices perked up in 2016. For 2017, there is a reason to believe the deflation fear may be behind us, as updated forecasts released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week show an expected annual pick-up in prices for the second time in the last five years.
    image
    Highlights of the Week:
    Treasuries: Treasury markets absorbed stronger inflation and housing data this week. Yields ground higher every day in this holiday-shortened week. The icing on the cake was Yellen’s speech on Wednesday where no one anticipated any remarks with regards to monetary policy and received hawkish ones at that.
    Securitized Products:
    The ABS market is following along with Ford auto receivables bringing a fully compliant ABS deal both regarding the 5% risk retention requirement and full loan level disclosure. The queue for next week is also full of issuers ready to hit the marketplace.
    High Yield:
    In this environment, the market has room to compress further, particularly given low expected default rates. Prudent, valuation-conscious investors should be rewarded.
    Emerging Markets: The latest activity data from China was a reminder of the country’s adjustment from investment-led to consumption-driven growth. December industrial production and xed asset investment growth eased modestly to 6.0% year-over-year (y/y) and 8.1% y/y, respectively, while retail sales came better than expected at 10.9% y/y.
    Municipals Municipal bond funds experienced a second consecutive week of in ows, taking in an additional $511.74 million. Investor demand has been strong, with $10 billion in new issuance well received and broad follow-through in secondary trading.
    https://www.payden.com/weekly/wir012017.pdf
    Honey. I think the kids are (finally ) leaving ! + We Look Back At Obama Years From Hoya Capital
    ...demographics over the next ten years are highly favorable to apartment demand. Rent growth data will certainly be interesting over the next several years: it will be a battle between high levels of supply and high levels of demand.image image
    Real Estate Weekly: Trump Takes Office, We Look Back At Obama Years
    Hoya Capital Real Estate Jan. 20, 2017
    With Donald Trump taking office this week, we think it's interesting to look back at the performance of REITs under the Obama Administration.
    REITs returned an average of 13% per year (price) and roughly 17% including dividends. Interesting, this 175% holding period return is almost exactly inline with the broader S&P 500 index.
    image
    It's important to note the context, though. Obama took office at almost the exact bottom of an 80% decline in REIT values over the preceding 18 months as the REIT ETF bottomed just a month after inauguration.
    Bottom Line So how will real estate perform under Trump? Well, we can pretty confidently say that commercial real estate won't perform as well under Trump as they did under Obama, but that should be rather obvious. Trump enters office at a time that commercial real estate values are near record highs and valuations appear healthy. Based on prevailing cap rate and economic growth expectations, REIT investors should continue to expect a 5-8% average annual total return with plenty of annual volatility.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4038310-real-estate-weekly-trump-takes-office-look-back-obama-years
    Treasury yields are up since Election Day. The benchmark 10-year Treasury is currently trading at 2.47% (as of Jan. 19, based on daily data via Treasury.gov). That’s up from 1.90% on Election Day and close to the highest level in two years.
    imageimage
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/moderate-us-growth-prevails-at-dawn-of-trump-era/
  • Recent Asset Class Performance — International Markets Bounce
    Thanks Ted. A good sign that you're doing better. Good post.
    I think what is often overlooked in discussions about international markets (like a recent thread) is the dollar. Its strength is one reason those markets have lagged for several years. Of course, currency trends can persist for years or decades. No one really knows. Eventually, they do reverse. Today the trend reversed (probably temporarily) and the dollar fell hard. Will be interesting to see what impact, if any, that has on international funds today. Many international stock and bond funds hedge against dollar flux and many international stock funds also use something called "Fair Value Pricing" (FVP) - some more than others. Both practices would tend to mitigate any big gains in international funds on any given day. (FVP): https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FAFVP.pdf
    As regulars know, I'm pretty conservative at 70+. I'm also 80+% buy and hold (sometimes called "buy and die"). But it's fun to play around a little around the edges. In December I sold my remaining shares in PRNEX (heavy on refiners). It jumped 25% in 2016 as oil began the year around $30 and reached over $55 in late December - a near doubling in less than 12 months. I suspect it has further to go, but didn't want to risk the year's gains. Used the $$ (about 2.5% of holdings) to boost cash a bit and also to buy my first ever index fund, PIEQX, which invests in developed overseas markets (Europe, Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc.). A month is way too short a period to draw conclusions, but the new fund has been my best performer this year. One reason I chose an index international fund (over a managed) is my assumption (could be wrong here) that T Rowe isn't using dollar hedging or FVP on this one. So the currency play should be near 100% - for better or worse.
    Good luck folks. Always enjoy hearing how others invest and see things.
  • Recent Asset Class Performance — International Markets Bounce
    FYI: Below is a look at the recent performance of various asset classes using key ETFs that we track on a daily basis. For each ETF, we show its performance year-to-date, since the Fed hiked rates on December 14th, and since the close on Election Day 2016 (11/8/16).
    Most US equity ETFs (left side of matrix) are up between 0-2% so far year-to-date, but the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been a standout to the upside with a 2017 gain of 3.95%. The Dow 30 (DIA) has lagged with a gain of just 0.60%. Looking at sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Telecom (IYZ) are up the most YTD, while Energy (XLE) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are down the most.
    Since the Fed hiked rates in mid-December, the Energy sector is the only area of the US market that has felt any kind of pain (-2.48%), while Consumer Staples is down less than 1%. Since the election, the Financial (XLF) and Telecom (IYZ) sectors are the only ones up more than 10%.
    Outside of the US, many countries have already posted nice gains in 2017. Brazil (EWZ) is up 7.8% YTD after posting a big gain in 2016 as well. Hong Kong (EWH) and Australia (EWA) are both up more than 5%, while Canada (EWC), China (ASHR), India (PIN), and Japan (EWJ) are all up more than 3%. Mexico (EWW) is the only country on our matrix that is down year-to-date, and that follows a very weak Q4 as well.
    Looking at commodities, gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have both gotten off to good starts to 2017, while oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) are in the red. Treasury ETFs are up both YTD and since the Fed hiked rates, but they’re all still down since the election.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/recent-asset-class-performance-international-markets-bounce/
  • Best Frontier Market Funds?
    For a short term position, cost is secondary to market movement. Frontier market ETFs don't seem to offer an advantage aside from cost over OEFs. Meanwhile they have the usual bid/ask cost mitigating or perhaps dominating the ST management cost difference.
    While the ETF options are more attractively priced, these index funds do face certain challenges in frontier markets, which is a relatively illiquid asset class. For example, when executing an index change, an ETF portfolio manager might face front-running and/or large market-impact costs. Turnover related to index changes could also result in capital gains distributions, as most frontier markets do not allow for in-kind creations and redemptions (the mechanism that allows ETFs to remove securities from their portfolio without incurring capital gains).
    There is only one diversified "frontier" market ETF with more than 1/3 of its assets in frontier markets. FM. If one is recommending an ETF for this market segment, that shouldn't have been so hard to name.
    ETF.com rates this the best frontier market ETF. That said, it also says that it is not particularly representative of this market segment, with a "poor tracking mean[ing] that realized holding costs are even higher." Overall, it rates FM an 'F' on a scale of A-F.
    Why again are ETFs good in this market segment for ST trading? Again quoting ETF.com: "All three [ETFs in the market segment] trade poorly. FM sees the best volume most days, but it still won't be cheap to buy and sell." That may be excusable for a LT position, but is detrimental to use in ST trading.
    I'm with Kevin on this one - if you get entertainment value out of these funds, that's fine. Otherwise it's a lot of research work for something that will not make a noticeable impact on your portfolio.
  • Towle Deep Value Fund to close to third party intermediaries
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834417000539/fp0023990_497.htm
    497 1 fp0023990_497.htm
    Towle Deep Value Fund
    (Ticker Symbol: TDVFX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the “Trust)
    Supplement dated January 13, 2017 to the
    Prospectus, Statement of Additional Information and Summary Prospectus, dated February 1, 2016.
    IMPORTANT NOTICE ON PURCHASE OF FUND SHARES
    Effective as of the close of business on January 27, 2017 (the “Closing Date”), the Towle Deep Value Fund (the “Fund”) will be publicly offered on a limited basis.
    After the Closing Date, only certain investors will be eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, as described below (the “closure policy”). In addition, both before and after the Closing Date, the Fund may from time to time, in its sole discretion based on the Fund’s net asset levels and other factors, limit the types of investors permitted to open new accounts, limit new purchases into the Fund or otherwise modify the closure policy at any time on a case-by-case basis.
    The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Fund shares after the Closing Date:
    1. Shareholders of record of the Fund as of the Closing Date may continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Fund accounts either directly from the Fund or through a financial intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Fund.
    2. Existing registered investment advisor (RIA) and bank trust firms that have an investment allocation to the Fund in a fee-based, wrap or advisory account may continue to add new clients or purchase shares.
    3. New shareholders may open Fund accounts and purchase shares directly from the Fund (i.e. not through a financial intermediary).
    4. Certain financial intermediaries may continue to open new underlying customer accounts provided the platform on which they offer access to the Fund has an existing funded position.
    5. Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b), 457 plans, and health savings account programs (and their successor, related and affiliated plans), which make the Fund available to participants on or before the Closing Date, may continue to open accounts for new participants in the Fund and purchase additional shares in existing participant accounts. New group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b), and 457 plans, and health savings account programs (and their successor, related and affiliated plans), may also establish new accounts with the Fund, provided the new plans have approved and selected the Fund as an investment option by the Closing Date and the plan has also been accepted for investment by the Fund by the Closing Date.
    6. Members of the Fund’s Board of Trustees, persons affiliated with the Advisor and their immediate families will be able to purchase shares of the Fund and establish new accounts.
    In general, the Fund will rely on a financial intermediary to prevent a new account from being opened within an omnibus account established at that financial intermediary if the account would not otherwise satisfy the conditions outlined above. The Fund’s ability to monitor new accounts that are opened through omnibus accounts or other nominee accounts is limited and the ability to limit a new account to those that meet the above criteria with respect to financial intermediaries may vary depending upon the capabilities of those financial intermediaries. Investors may be asked to verify that they meet one of the exceptions above prior to opening a new account in the Fund. The Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. The Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these exceptions. If all shares of the Fund in an existing account are redeemed, the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former shareholders will not be able to buy additional shares of the Fund or reopen their account.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.