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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Let's look at RPSIX PRSNX PTIAX and compare them to several other Multi sector funds in my list such as VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX,IOFIX
    Looking at PV (link)
    You can see below that VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX,IOFIX are better RPSIX PRSNX PTIAX The last 2 columns are Sharpe +Sortino.
    See this link (link)
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    “I can make 20-30+%“
    Funny thing about quoting percentages is that seem higher than they appear to be.
    Say if a bond fund returns 3%, a 30% increase amounts to less than 1% increase in return.
    Is the effort worth it for a tiny 1% increase in return?
    Are other assets classes (stocks) or asset allocations (stock to bond ratios) better to target?
    @BigTom
    Nope, it's not only 1% increase it's much more than that.
    Several examples:
    1) PIMIX vs BND (link)=in the last 10 years PIMIX made 5% more annually with higher SD(but still low) and much better Sharpe+Sortino
    2) IOFIX vs BND (link)=IOFIX made almost 8% more annually with similar SD and much better Sharpe+Sortino.
    3) A relative used to invest in MM, I told him to use SEMPX instead after I explained it to him. In 5 years SEMPX made 4.4 while VG VMMXX made 1.2%, this is more than 3% annually.
    4) I told another relative to use HY Munis instead of some of his MM/CD and he made over 7% in the last 3 years instead of 1.5-2%.
    This tread intention is to discuss only open-ended bond funds.
    Not stocks vs Bonds
    Not CEFs vs bonds
    Not asset allocation
    Not how anybody invests currently and in the past.
    Not about retirement or accumulation phase.
    If you like to discuss the above non-related topics please start a new thread.
    It's a pretty simple concept, you post a bond fund and we discuss it generally and compare it to other funds.
    So, do you have a bond fund in mind you like to discuss?
  • Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World

    How many times do you see returns listed this way ?
    DErf
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    Ignore gold shills.
    Rebalancing is not too hard. Don't be afraid of capital gains taxes, they are at historic lows if you have little or no earned income.
    I am wary of bond funds. As I shave off my stock index fund gains little by little, I've actually been buying individual bonds of 1 to 2 year duration until recently. The offerings really dried up in January, though, and even money markets are paying more than 1-2 year near-junk-grade stuff. Once rates hit zero (and I think they will) what will happen to valuations? I dunno.
    My calculations say I can live for a few years off my for-now 3% bond ladder yield so I am buying my time. 15% cash as well, shooting for higher.
    Don't forget that I-series savings bonds pay over 2% if you are willing to hold them a long time.
    I am curious why you are wary on bond OEFs? There are 2 excellent posters here that do a lot of research on them. From those 2 I have learned a lot about bond funds. I do not follow anyone blindly but still do my own due diligence.
  • Opinion: 9 secrets of dividend investing, from a couple of stock pros who beat the market
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/9-secrets-of-dividend-investing-from-a-couple-of-stock-pros-who-beat-the-market-2020-02-19
    Opinion: 9 secrets of dividend investing, from a couple of stock pros who beat the market
    Many income-focused investors dwell on dividend yield and buy largely on that basis. More income is better, right?
    Not so, say the two dividend-minded mutual-fund managers who run the outperforming Guinness Atkinson Dividend Builder Fund GAINX, +0.47% . Matthew Page and Ian Mortimer use a much more nuanced approach to get high-achieving results. Over the past three years, they have beaten both their Morningstar World Large-Stock category and the MSCI ACWI Index by 1.9 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively, on an annualized basis.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Below is what I posted on 1/31/2020
    Performance..1 month...YTD as of 1/31/2020
    Multi
    • PDIIX……1.5.....
    • PUCZX….1.1..…
    • JMUTX....1.15....
    • JMSIX.....0.8……. (JGIAX)
    Multi(high % securitized)
    • PIMIX.....0.8….
    • EIXIX…..1.1….
    • VCFAX...1.3...
    • IOFIX.....1.8....
    • SEMMX...1.3.... (ST duration, 3 year SD less than 1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    • DHEIX….0.6…..4.85 (ST duration, 3 year SD less than 1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    HY Munis
    • PHMIX…..2.1.....
    • NHMAX....2.7.....
    • MMHAX....2.0.…..
    • OPTAX.....2.4....
    • ORNAX….2.6……..
    • GHYAX......2.1......
    • GWMEX….2.6…... (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
    • NVHAX……1.7……. (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
    Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
    • USIBX.......2.1.....
    • BCOIX......1.9…....
    • PINCX……2.1..…….
    • BND….......2.0…......
    Bank Loans/Floating rate
    • EIFAX.......0.5.....
    Uncontrain/Nontrad
    • IISIX..........0.7....
    • PUTIX......-0.1….
    • PAJZX……0.7….
    HY +EM
    • HYG.........-0.5.....
    • PHIYX.......0.....
    • ZEOIX……0.3…….(ST HY, 3 year SD less than 1, good as cash sub)
    • FNMIX……1.4…….
    Corporate
    • PIGIX….…2.5..….
    Preferred
    • PFINX…...1.5……
    OTHER
    • FXAIX.…..0..…(SP500)
    • PCI………0.9... (CEF)
    Rating several good choices
    Multisector+NonTrad-
    SD less than 1=SEMMX,ANFIX,ANGLX,DHEIX…
    SD less than 1.5=IISIX,TSIIX…
    SD less than 2=VCFIX,/VCFAX,JMUIX/JMUTX,PIMIX…
    SD less than 2.7=IOFIX,PUCZX,DPFNX,JMSIX
    HY Muni-…
    SD less than 2=NVHIX,WHYIX,ISHYX…
    SD less than 3=NHMRX/NHMAX,GHYIX/GHYAX,MMHIX/MMHAX
    Core+Core plus-…
    SD less than 1.5=FIJEX…
    SD less than 3=PINCX,GTO
    Observations:
    2020 OPENED WITH A BANG FOR BOND OEFs. Rates were down and many funds did nicely.
    Multi- Another good month and especially for IOFIX. SEMMX did great for its low SD.
    HY Munis continues to be a great category with 2+% for a month.
    Inter term – did fantastic because rates were down
    Bank loans – are lagging
    Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and PUTIX fell off the cliff
    HY+EM – HYG lost money and EM did pretty well.
    Corp – This category was on fire because of the rate cut.
    ===========================
    Generic Views
    My 2 favorite categories are Multi+HY Munis.
    HY Munis-The funds that I usually invest in are NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX.
    The Multi funds I’m interested are IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PIMIX,JMUTX,JMSIX/JGIAX,PUCZX but IOFIX is usually the leader. SEMMX did very well for a very low SD fund.
    Investors who don't mind and understand the risk, may use SEMMX,DHEIX,ZEOIX as a "cash sub" LT, see 3 year SD less than 1(link). In taxable, you can use ST duration Munis. NVHAX duration is about 4 which is between ST to LT. I remember so many posts in 01/2019 about MM/CD that were paying just 2-2.5%.
    ============================
    Any question or subject about bond mutual funds (not CEFs) is welcome in this thread. I will try and answer all of them.
  • Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/02/18/where-to-get-income-in-a-low-yield-world/#1579902c43b8
    Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World
    Frank HolmesContributor
    -So far in 2020, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has averaged an anemic 0.01 percent when adjusted for inflation. Since the end of January, it’s actually dipped below 0 percent, trading as low as negative 0.14 percent on January 31-
    bought more FBND for Mom's retired acct
  • ostrx fund
    For cash, I would look at SEMMX or DHEAX/DHEIX. SEMMX has lower rating bonds and better performance than DHEAX (Investment grade > 80%). I call these funds "cash sub" for investors who are willing to take a calculated risk.
    See PorVis(link)
    I hardly ever hold cash/MM/CD but that's what I do and what suites my goals.
  • ostrx fund
    M* is more correct. Look at their (site).
    Investment-grade, U.S. dollar-based, absolute return-oriented strategy
    Ability to manage and hedge duration based on market conditions
    Portfolio construction and rebalancing are driven by investment decisions, not benchmark changes

    I highlight above several keywords.
    Now, do I want to invest in OSTRX?
    I would compare it to SEMMX,IISIX see PorVis(link)
    SEMMX,IISIX have better performance, SD=voltility, Sharpe, Sortino and higher income too.
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020

    Cutting MPW (REIT) loose after a while to lock in approx 6 years' worth of dividends via cap gains. Will buy it back on any major weakness, though.
    Also dropping JBGS (REIT) for a 20% gain as a 2-year trade on Amazon coming to my block.
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    Ignore gold shills.
    Rebalancing is not too hard. Don't be afraid of capital gains taxes, they are at historic lows if you have little or no earned income.
    I am wary of bond funds. As I shave off my stock index fund gains little by little, I've actually been buying individual bonds of 1 to 2 year duration until recently. The offerings really dried up in January, though, and even money markets are paying more than 1-2 year near-junk-grade stuff. Once rates hit zero (and I think they will) what will happen to valuations? I dunno.
    My calculations say I can live for a few years off my for-now 3% bond ladder yield so I am buying my time. 15% cash as well, shooting for higher.
    Don't forget that I-series savings bonds pay over 2% if you are willing to hold them a long time.
  • Franklin Resources Nears All-Cash Deal to Buy Legg Mason
    Look like a done deal. Got an email this morning:
    "Legg Mason, the majority owner of Royce Investment Partners, to be acquired by Franklin Templeton
    "Transaction Structured to Ensure Continued Autonomy of Royce Organization
    New York, NY February 18, 2020 – Royce Investment Partners, a small-cap equity specialist for more than 45 years, announced that its parent company, Legg Mason, is being acquired by Franklin Templeton, a global investment management organization. Royce Investment Partners will continue to operate as an independent investment organization with its own brand to reinforce the distinctiveness of Royce’s investment culture and processes. There are no changes planned to the management of the organization or investment teams as a result of this transaction."
    Well, I've had a good nearly-20-year run with RYPNX. It was a good performer if not particularly tax efficient, and their shareholder communications were always interesting.
    I was a reluctant participant in an employer's overpriced underperforming Franklin 401k once and Franklin's on my list of hated fund companies. But I'm not tempted to bail out right away as long as their fees don't go any higher, and current management sticks around.
  • Fund Spy: Fund Ideas for the New Decade
    Hi @Mark
    At this time, I don't share the views in the M* write; but thank you for the link.
    Our portfolio has it's equity side in the large cap growth area with technology and the side sauce being healthcare and medical technology equity. The technology areas continue to travel the hot path. Our continued concern is what will become of the COVID19 virus and its impact on supply chain for various sectors. Tech. in particular could be an overwhelming favorite for profit taking.
    ***30 year bond yield dropped below 2%
    Side note: Much reduced Chinese tours globally is going to cause many local problems; although not directly related to most investment areas. But, money not spent; may become a problem for consumers who rely on tourism.
    Maintaining a clear and mindful eye globally.
    I mostly agree with this short write regarding potential problem areas and the continued spending by American on just about everything, apparently. Most of the restaurants in our greater metro area remain busy, even on days I thought they wouldn't.
    Folks are spending the money they have or pushing it forward with a credit card. This, in spite of what I consider being a fairly expensive market place; especially for a family dinner.
    Still sleeping without problems.
    Catch
  • The Benefits of the Premium Version of Morningstar compared to regular version.
    Regarding mfopremium and Total Return, it reports APR % / yr and the definition at https://www.member.mfopremium.com/definitions/ says:
    "Annualized Percent Return (APR)
    A fund’s annualized average rate of total return each year over period evaluated. It is an abstract number, or so-called "geometric return," since actual annual returns can be well above or below the average, but annualizing greatly facilitates comparison of fund performance. APR is equivalent to CAGR, or compound annual rate of return. It reflects reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions, while deducting for fund expenses, fees, but excluding any load."
    Hope this helps.
  • Weekly market watch reads - Keep politics out of your stock portfolio — plus other top investing tip
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/keep-politics-out-of-your-stock-portfolio-plus-other-top-investing-tips-2020-02-16
    Keep politics out of your stock portfolio — plus other top investing tips
    Weekly recaps and couple of interesting reads marketwatch
    Enjoy rest weekend
    Typically good advice not to follow the front page when drawing up your investment plans.
    I'm not sure I see the value in discussing my investment ideas with people just because they disagree with me about politics. Most people don't study on the subject enough to have anything to add to the conversation besides opinions.
    But, I will say, the current resident of the White House has been good for my small allocation to gold.
  • Warren had a tough year — how might explain it?
    Feb 14, 2020 , Reuters Feb 14 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway:
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY TAKES SHARE STAKE OF 18.9 MILLION SHARES IN KROGER- SEC FILING
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY UPS SHARE STAKE IN GENERAL MOTORS CO BY 3.8% TO 75.0 MILLION SHARES - SEC FILING
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY UPS SHARE STAKE IN RH BY 41.4% TO 1.7 MILLION SHARES
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY UPS SHARE STAKE IN OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP BY 153.5% TO 18.9 MILLION SHARES
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC - CHANGE IN HOLDINGS ARE AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2019
  • Buying Gold: Physical Vs ETFs
    As to buying gold bullion, in my example; non-numismatic, as with American Gold Eagle or Canadian Maple Leaf, 1 oz.
    One of the lowest cost Canadian Maple Leaf 1 oz, .999 bullion coins that I may purchase today (Feb. 16, 2020) has a 4.29% premium over the gold spot price. With the assumption that one may anticipate a 2-5% premium to buy and the same going into the sell side; a bullion purchase should have these numbers in mind.
    To me, the equivalent is a load to buy/sell a mutual fund/etf.
    Assuming whatever performance with a fund over a 10 year or whatever period, and using the above percentage range for bullion buy/sell using 4% for easy numbers; one would be buying a fund at a 4% premium and selling at a 4% discount. Front and back load city, eh?
    Have a good remainder.
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    My notes after reading The Investor’s Manifesto by William Bernstein.
    Over periods of more than a year, stock and asset prices tend to mean revert. An asset class with an above-average past return will tend to deliver a below-average future return and vice versa. In tax-sheltered accounts, letting the losses and gains run for two to three years before rebalancing seems to be the optimal strategy.
    Rebalance your portfolio approximately once every few years. In taxable portfolios, do so even less frequently. Rebalancing your portfolio more than once per year is probably too often.