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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Starchild,
    Thanks for your comment and question that you directed my way. Many of my American Fund holdings came to me via gift and inheritance with some of the funds dating back a couple of generations thus being in family hands all the way back to my great grandfather. As my great grandfather and grandfather sold off farm land they invested the sale proceeds and spread it out among family members with some of it being invested in American Funds. We also have a policy of not putting all of our eggs in a single basket.
    Starchild I'd like your thoughts on where I overlap. Please consider manager stradegy with your answer as the funds might occupy the same style boxes, etc. but the managers themselves differ using many different investment strategies. Notice I've got growth, value, momentum, contrarian, equity dividend, fixed income of many types, special opportunity, etc.
    I'm posting my sleeve management system along with portfolio positions so you have an understaning of what I actually do own for a better understanding of how I govern family money.
    Consolidated Master Portfolio & Sleeve Management System ... Last Revised on 11/15/2019
    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better manage the investments held within mine and my wife's portfolios. The consolidated master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank savings accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a Cash Area which consist of two sleeves ... an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the Income Area which consist of two sleeves ... an income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the Growth & Income Area which has more risk associated with it than the Income Area and it consist of four sleeves ... a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. Then there is the Growth Area where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves ... a global growth sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, an other investment sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. The size of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds held and their amounts. By using the sleeve management system I can get a better picture of my overall investment landscape. I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly for analysis. All my funds with the exception of those in my health savings account pay their distributions to the Cash Area of the portfolio. This automatically builds cash in the Cash Area to meet the portfolio's disbursement needs (when necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio's five year average return. In this way principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell transactions settle from, or to, the Cash Area with some net asset exchanges between funds taking place. My rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% of my neutral allocation for my Income Area, Growth & Income Area and Growth Area while I generally let the Cash Area float. However, at times, I can tactically position by setting a target allocation that is different from the neutral weighting to overweight (or underweight) an area without having to do a forced rebalance. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio quarterly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market(s), my goals, my risk tolerance, my cash needs, etc. I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar's portfolio manager by sleeve, by each area and the portfolio as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements, Morningstar fund reports, fund fact sheets along with their annual reports to follow my investments. In addition, I use my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system as a guide to assist me in throttling my equity allocation through the use of equity ballast, or a spiff position, when desired. I also maintain a list of positions to add (A) to, to buy (B), to reduce (R), or to sell (S). Generally, funds are assigned to a sleeve based upon a best fit basis. Currently, my investment focus is to position new money into income generating assets. The last major rebalanced process was started during the 4th Quarter of 2018 and was completed in the 1st Quarter of 2019 with some sleeves being reconfigured along with the movement to a new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.
    Portfolio Asset Allocation: Balanced Towards Income ... 20% Cash, 40% Income, 30% Gr & Inc and 10% Growth
    CASH AREA: (Weighting Range 15% to 25%, Neutral 20%, Target 15%, Actual 14%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve ... Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual
    Investment Cash Sleeve ... MMK Funds: AMAXX, GOFXX(B), PCOXX, CD Ladder(R) & Savings
    INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 35% to 45%, Neutral 40%, Target 40%, Actual 39%)
    Income Sleeve: APIUX(A), BLADX(A), GIFAX, JGIAX(A), NEFZX, PGBAX, PONAX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: AZNAX(A), BAICX, CTFAX(A), DIFAX, FBLAX, FISCX, FKINX, FRINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PMAIX
    GROWTH & INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 25% to 35%, Neutral 30%, Target 30%, Actual 32%)
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX(A) & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX(A) & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX
    GROWTH & OTHER ASSET AREA: (Weighting Range 5% to 15%, Neutral 10%, Target 15%, Actual 15%)
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: AOFAX, NDVAX & PMDAX
    Global Growth Sleeve: ANWPX, NEWFX & SMCWX
    Other Investment Sleeve: KAUAX(A), LPEFX & PGUAX
    Equity Ballast & Spiff Sleeve: No position held at this time.
    Currently, I'm heavy in equity awaiting December mutual fund capital gain distributions that will preform an automatic rebalance of sorts by raising my cash allocation as I recieve all mutual fund distributions in cash. This should bubble me back towards a 20%/40%/40% asset allocation. Equities, indeed, had a nice run this year.
    Well ok then Skeet!
  • Seasonal PSA

    Just a friendly reminder that "this the season" for year-end mutual fund distributions. So if anyone's fund drops a surprisingly bazillion bucks on any given day (other than an instant recession hitting!) between now and 12/31 you're probably fine. Check your statement for year-end gains/distributions if you're not sure. :)
  • Hot Semiconductor Stocks Power Biggest YTD Gains In The Chip Sector: (SPGP)
    FYI: Large and midcap growth dominated U.S. diversified stock funds during the past month, while resurgent semiconductor stocks fueled chip-focused sector funds .
    Invesco S&P 500 GARP (SPGP) topped diversified stock ETFs with a 33.4% year-to-date gain through Nov. 13, according to Morningstar Direct. The $345.6 million fund, which tracks the S&P 500 Growth at a Reasonable Price Index, was called Invesco Russell Top 200 Pure Growth and tracked the Russell 200 Pure Growth Index until June 21.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/semiconductor-stocks-power-chip-sector-biggest-ytd-gains/
    M* Snapshot SPGP:
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spgp/quote
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Here's something a little different!
    Capital One is offering a cash bonus of $200 on their new 360 Performance Savings Account. Deposit $10,000 within 10 days of account opening and you will receive a $200 cash bonus into your account after 90 days.
    The current APY for this account is 1.8%. With a $200 cash bonus on $10,000 that boosts the effective 12 month return to 3.8%. Not bad for an FDIC insured investment. I've already taken advantage of this offer. Here's the link:
    https://www.capitalone.com/save1000/
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Starchild,
    Thanks for your comment and question that you directed my way. Many of my American Fund holdings came to me via gift and inheritance with some of the funds dating back a couple of generations thus being in family hands all the way back to my great grandfather. As my great grandfather and grandfather sold off farm land they invested the sale proceeds and spread it out among family members with some of it being invested in American Funds. We also have a policy of not putting all of our eggs in a single basket.
    Starchild I'd like your thoughts on where I overlap. Please consider manager stradegy with your answer as the funds might occupy the same style boxes, etc. but the managers themselves differ using many different investment strategies. Notice I've got growth, value, momentum, contrarian, equity dividend, fixed income of many types, special opportunity, etc.
    I'm posting my sleeve management system along with portfolio positions so you have an understaning of what I actually do own for a better understanding of how I govern family money.
    Consolidated Master Portfolio & Sleeve Management System ... Last Revised on 11/15/2019
    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better manage the investments held within mine and my wife's portfolios. The consolidated master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank savings accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a Cash Area which consist of two sleeves ... an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the Income Area which consist of two sleeves ... an income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the Growth & Income Area which has more risk associated with it than the Income Area and it consist of four sleeves ... a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. Then there is the Growth Area where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves ... a global growth sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, an other investment sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. The size of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds held and their amounts. By using the sleeve management system I can get a better picture of my overall investment landscape. I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly for analysis. All my funds with the exception of those in my health savings account pay their distributions to the Cash Area of the portfolio. This automatically builds cash in the Cash Area to meet the portfolio's disbursement needs (when necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio's five year average return. In this way principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell transactions settle from, or to, the Cash Area with some net asset exchanges between funds taking place. My rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% of my neutral allocation for my Income Area, Growth & Income Area and Growth Area while I generally let the Cash Area float. However, at times, I can tactically position by setting a target allocation that is different from the neutral weighting to overweight (or underweight) an area without having to do a forced rebalance. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio quarterly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market(s), my goals, my risk tolerance, my cash needs, etc. I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar's portfolio manager by sleeve, by each area and the portfolio as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements, Morningstar fund reports, fund fact sheets along with their annual reports to follow my investments. In addition, I use my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system as a guide to assist me in throttling my equity allocation through the use of equity ballast, or a spiff position, when desired. I also maintain a list of positions to add (A) to, to buy (B), to reduce (R), or to sell (S). Generally, funds are assigned to a sleeve based upon a best fit basis. Currently, my investment focus is to position new money into income generating assets. The last major rebalanced process was started during the 4th Quarter of 2018 and was completed in the 1st Quarter of 2019 with some sleeves being reconfigured along with the movement to a new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.
    Portfolio Asset Allocation: Balanced Towards Income ... 20% Cash, 40% Income, 30% Gr & Inc and 10% Growth
    CASH AREA: (Weighting Range 15% to 25%, Neutral 20%, Target 15%, Actual 14%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve ... Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual
    Investment Cash Sleeve ... MMK Funds: AMAXX, GOFXX(B), PCOXX, CD Ladder(R) & Savings
    INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 35% to 45%, Neutral 40%, Target 40%, Actual 39%)
    Income Sleeve: APIUX(A), BLADX(A), GIFAX, JGIAX(A), NEFZX, PGBAX, PONAX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: AZNAX(A), BAICX, CTFAX(A), DIFAX, FBLAX, FISCX, FKINX, FRINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PMAIX
    GROWTH & INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 25% to 35%, Neutral 30%, Target 30%, Actual 32%)
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX(A) & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX(A) & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX
    GROWTH & OTHER ASSET AREA: (Weighting Range 5% to 15%, Neutral 10%, Target 15%, Actual 15%)
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: AOFAX, NDVAX & PMDAX
    Global Growth Sleeve: ANWPX, NEWFX & SMCWX
    Other Investment Sleeve: KAUAX(A), LPEFX & PGUAX
    Equity Ballast & Spiff Sleeve: No position held at this time.
    Currently, I'm heavy in equity awaiting December mutual fund capital gain distributions that will preform an automatic rebalance of sorts by raising my cash allocation as I recieve all mutual fund distributions in cash. This should bubble me back towards a 20%/40%/40% asset allocation. Equities, indeed, had a nice run this year.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Nice thread ... Let's keep it going by making comment.
    For me, now retired, I have been investing in fixed income more so than on the equity side of my portfolio as I am in the distribution phase of investing. Two fixed income funds that I recenetly added to are JGIAX and BLADX. I've got a CD that matures at the first part of December and may roll that money into a government money market mutual fund such as GOFXX to maintain liqudity rather than locking it up in a time deposit such as a CD.
    I've also got some sizeable capital gain distributions coming in December that will be paid by a good number of my equity mutual funds. Most likely, I'll reposition this money by splitting it between the fixed income side and equity side of my portfolio into funds that can increase my income stream and also allow for some capital appreciation over time. In addition, I may hold some cash back while I await a stock market pullback and add it to my cash spiff position.
    My add to list consist of the following funds. They are on the fixed income side AZNAX, BLADX, CTFAX, JGIAX and on the equity side DWGAX, INUTX and KAUAX. For my next equity spiff (special investment position) I've been thinking of using EAALX over VADAX.
    Also know, I plan to govern in a way that maintains my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.
    I love your posts Skeet, but damn, why do you own so many funds? You have overlap galore. In hindsight, do you think you think you would have been fine with VTSAX and end it?
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Puddnhead,
    In answering your question(s). I got up early this morning to read the proof edition of the Observer. Just kidding. I'm diabetic and I was up for my early morning snack which I do most mornings around 3:00 am.
    As for VWINX ... There are many good income allocation funds. I can not own them all plus if I were to own VWINX I'd have to hold it in a wrap account, with my broker, since it is a no load fund. To keep things simple and still receive a consodilated IRS 1099 Form I have one single taxable account as many funds I own came to me through both gift and inheritance. In a good number of cases I can buy in this account at nav or reduced sales charges as there are several generations of compounding that have taken place in some of these holdings dating back to my great grandfather.
    When, I can't buy at reduced sales charges (or at nav) I simply pay the commission as there are no charges what-so-ever charged to me by the broker as long as it holds A or C share funds. And, the commisions I do pay are very small in size relative to the size of this account.
    KAUAX is one of my favorite funds. Although it is classified as a mid cap growth fund it fills all the style boxes plus it will hold cash if it can not find good opportunity. The last time I looked it was holding better than 20% in cash. Plus, it usually pays a sizeable capital gain distribution each year; and, being retired that's cash in my pocket. To me that's just as good as an income fund.
    Thanks again for taking over the thread a few years back that was started by Scott and which I ran for a few years. Now, its future lies with you. Back then it was titled "Buy, Sell or Ponder." You and Duke are doing a great job. I've been watching and it draws a good readership.
    And ... May God Bless ... you as well!
    Skeet
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Nice thread ... Let's keep it going by making comment.
    For me, now retired, I have been investing in fixed income more so than on the equity side of my portfolio as I am in the distribution phase of investing. Two fixed income funds that I recenetly added to are JGIAX and BLADX. I've got a CD that matures at the first part of December and may roll that money into a government money market mutual fund such as GOFXX to maintain liqudity rather than locking it up in a time deposit such as a CD.
    I've also got some sizeable capital gain distributions coming in December that will be paid by a good number of my equity mutual funds. Most likely, I'll reposition this money by splitting it between the fixed income side and equity side of my portfolio into funds that can increase my income stream and also allow for some capital appreciation over time. In addition, I may hold some cash back while I await a stock market pullback and add it to my cash spiff position.
    My add to list consist of the following funds. They are on the fixed income side AZNAX, BLADX, CTFAX, JGIAX and on the equity side DWGAX, INUTX and KAUAX. For my next equity spiff (special investment position) I've been thinking of using EAALX over VADAX.
    Also know, I plan to govern in a way that maintains my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.
  • TDA new MM funds - no-load, no-fee, no STR!
    @msf,
    Thanks for posting those 7 day yields on the mmk funds I referenced. I have a sleeve of mmk funds set up in M* portfolio manager in which I use the TTM yield to follow yield on all my funds. I guess, I could have used the weekly gains to compute the 7 day yield as the 7 day yield is not one of the options available for tracking purposes in portfolio manager. It use to be that I could go to the M* fund report to get the 7 day yield. But, with all the changes at M* I'm now finding that fund reports on mmk funds are no longer available.
    Simply stated ... There have been a good number of concerns in the past posted about M* on the board. It seems, to me, that they have become more advisor orientated over the last year or so as they now offer the retail investor less and less. I'm not liking their new reports nor their new site either. I'm thinking it will not be long before the only thing that the retail investor will be able to track in portfolio manager is valuation. Recently, I been having problems with their Xray program as data can be entered but it just grinds away producing no Xray portfolio report. Oh well ... so it goes ... that's now par for M*.
    Thank goodness I get good reporting from my brokerage house. And, I actually use some of their competitor's sites to now research funds along with MFO. Now, MFO is indeed a blessing for us small retail investors in doing fund searches. And, MFO actually follows and scores some mmk funds.
    Skeet
  • Bond Funds Are Feeling the Pain. There’s An Exception At Pimco: (PONAX)
    PONAX is one of Old_Skeet's fund holdings found in the income area of my portfolio. Year to date it trails most of the other funds found within its sleeve; but, for November (as the article states) it and a few other of it's income sleeve members are up while the others (within the sleeve) are down. With this, I've got four that are up, thus far, for Novemeber and five that are down. For November my income sleeve is down -0.28% while year to date it is up +8.95%. Overall, thus far, for November I'm up +0.22% and year to date +13.75%. I'm thinking not to bad for a 20%cash, 40% income, and 40% equity portfolio with a yield of about 3.2%; and, with anticipated yearend capital gain distributions figured in this will put the total income distribution yield at better than 5%. This results in more income than I need; but, it does leave some left for new investment opportunity.
  • Bond Funds Are Feeling the Pain. There’s An Exception At Pimco: (PONAX)
    FYI: The recent fixed-income selloff means large bond funds have posted losses in November. That might surprise investors who have seen healthy gains from bonds for most of the year.
    But one popular Pimco fund is bucking the trend, climbing during the turbulence—though its conservative posture has caused it to lag for most of the year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-funds-yields-treasurys-pimco-junk-duration-51573230142?refsec=bonds
    M* Snapshot PONAX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ponax/quote
  • Consuelo's Mack's WealthTrack: Guests: Chuck Akre & John Neff Co-Managers, Akre Focus Fund (AKREX)
    FYI: We are always on the lookout for the exceptional on WEALTHTRACK. It’s not easy to find among actively managed mutual fund managers. Only 23% of actively managed funds in all major categories, including stocks, bonds, and real estate outperformed their passive index fund rivals over the last ten years. And only about 8% of U.S. large-cap funds outperformed passive, the smallest margin among all active fund categories winners. No wonder that active U.S. stock funds are experiencing substantial outflows and passive stock funds are gaining assets. In a historic shift, passive assets in U.S. equity funds recently surpassed those in actively managed ones for the first time ever.
    This week’s guests are bucking all of those trends. They are active managers in primarily large-cap U.S. stocks. They have been beating the market and peers by substantial margins over the last decade and they are attracting more assets.
    Joining us for a rare interview is Chuck Akre and John Neff of Akre Capital Management
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://wealthtrack.com/finding-compounding-machines-with-the-great-investor-chuck-akre-his-gen-x-co-manager-john-neff/
    M* Snapshot: AKREX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/akrex/quote
    Lipper Snapshot AKREX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/akrex
    AKREX Is Unranked In The (LCG) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-growth/akre-focus-fd/akrex
  • Investors Can’t Seem To Get Enough Bond Funds: $121 Billion In Bond ETFs
    U.S. bond prices I follow for reference peaked around Sept. 3. This includes gov't. issues, broad based IG corp. and high yield munis. IOFIX referenced by @Junkster , and a decent HY fund of ARTFX continues an up trend from Sept. 3, but the gains remain less so than from the beginning of the year. A general overview of U.S. bonds from Sept. 3 indicate up and down moves that were of consequence for short periods, but as of Nov. 6 this 2 month period is FLAT for price profits.
    I suggest a bottom in pricing that may be held could be the result of international monies wanting to hold bonds, but will continue to stay away from the negative yield world. A 10 yr Treasury may not look like much here at 1.8% yield, but is a decent spread from a negative -.5% in Euroland.
    My 2 cents about the current bondland.
    @catch22, there has been a huge move in bund rates the past month. The German 30 year has gone from negative to positive. The 10 year at -0.24% should follow. Our 10 year is at 1.96 today. I can get 1.80 from a Fidelity money market fund. I think the current steepening of the yield curve has only just begun. But we shall see. I am no expert. Then again, the last expert I referenced a month or so ago said you better buy up all the bonds you can get, especially the 30 year when it was at 2.01%. Not the best advice so far.
  • Investors Can’t Seem To Get Enough Bond Funds: $121 Billion In Bond ETFs
    U.S. bond prices I follow for reference peaked around Sept. 3. This includes gov't. issues, broad based IG corp. and high yield munis. IOFIX referenced by @Junkster , and a decent HY fund of ARTFX continues an up trend from Sept. 3, but the gains remain less so than from the beginning of the year. A general overview of U.S. bonds from Sept. 3 indicate up and down moves that were of consequence for short periods, but as of Nov. 6 this 2 month period is FLAT to negative, for price profits.
    I suggest a bottom in pricing that may be held could be the result of international monies wanting to hold bonds, but will continue to stay away from the negative yield world. A 10 yr Treasury may not look like much here at 1.8% yield, but is a decent spread from a negative -.5% in Euroland.
    My 2 cents about the current bondland.
  • Investors Can’t Seem To Get Enough Bond Funds: $121 Billion In Bond ETFs
    Not sure bonds (except for maybe high yield) are the place to be. 2020 may be the reverse of 2019 as the 10 year moves to the 2.50 to 3% range. The negative rate scenario may also be a thing of the past in places like Europe next year. End of the day my only holding will be IOFIX but lightening up a bit there too just in case. The fundamentals still look compelling for that niche bond fund but never know when investors will sell en masse anything bond related.
  • David Snowball's November Commentary Is Now Available
    “I again would argue that investors need to review their allocations and comfort zones with those allocations, especially as to their ability to replenish their assets in the event of a permanent capital loss. Things that were five or ten years ago are often no longer what they seem ...
    “First, don’t be afraid to hold more cash than you usually would. Secondly, if you are going to be invested in equities, try and make sure that they and your other assets are as uncorrelated to the general markets as possible. Look for things that are unloved ... And try to protect yourself from asset managers who are talking their own book.”

    I may have altered Ed’s emphasis a bit here through my edit. But he strikes me, as usual, as being very prescient. Than again, after a record setting 10-year romp, how many are listening?
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Will touch on 4 podcasts from 7-26-19 to 10-29-19 - Asbury, John Hancock, Jeff Gundlach and Fido.
    Asbury (7-26) mid caps in......no large growth is in.....market looks good into the fall. Healthcare equipment is a buy. Healthcare has legs, 10yr could go to 2.50%. Inversion must last 3 months and you have a year before a recession.
    Hancock (9-17) ......growth is slowing. Look for Fed cuts. Large and mid caps are in. Only buy quality tech, health, staples----only quality.....no overseas bonds....quality only. 10yr could go to 0.75% in next recession. No banks or small caps. 10yr at 1.80% is a buy.
    Gundlach (10-16) ..... negative bonds 97% owned by governments or pension funds. EM down 20% since 2018. No banks; US is expensive. Dollar will weaken growth. US is all about debt. 2020 is not looking good. Will see QE before we have next recession. Time to sell some things.
    Fido (10-29) ..... when ECB and US cut rates at same time, 71% chance things rise. 41 global cuts this year. Will take 9 months for it to kick in. Buy financials, industrials....healthcare is a value trap. Buy tech and energy. The Fed will let inflation run hot since we had to wait so long to get some.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • This Hedge Fund Can Still Deliver Double Digit Returns: Here Are Its Top Picks
    @MFO Members : Please !
    Regards,
    Ted
    YTD:
    QQQ: 29.70%
    SPY: 24.20%
    TRBCX: 22.17%
    PRHSX: 17.15%
    Tamarack Capital Management Hedge Fund: 6.77%