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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The stock market's speculative frenzy
    https://www.axios.com/stock-market-speculation-coronavirus-8648eb3d-34b6-4457-9d6f-7dcbf1ad69bb.html
    The stock market's speculative frenzy
    Never has the stock market seen so much gambling. Volume is at record highs, with individual stocks and the market as a whole feeling almost manic. More people than ever are betting more money than ever on which way stocks will move, in a frenzy that feels more like a casino than a safe place for long-term capital appreciation.
    In other words many of us maybe playing Russian roulette with our investment monies...
  • Your favorite Dividend Paying Funds
    You can’t fake, manipulate or fudge a dividend payment by hiring a talented CPA.

    Ask any fund manager about "return of capital" as a dividend and you'll see manipulation/fudging is exactly what can be done.
    Fidelity attempts to explain this non-dividend payout:
    https://fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/closed-end-funds/return-of-capital-part-one
  • Why Bond Investors Are Willing to Bet on Money-Losing Pemex After Oil Price Crash
    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/22/business/22reuters-mexico-pemex-bonds-analysis.html
    Why Bond Investors Are Willing to Bet on Money-Losing Pemex After Oil Price Crash
    By Reuters
    May 22, 2020
    Updated 8:23 a.m. ET
    MEXICO CITY/NEW YORK — Mexico's state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos has seen investor sentiment improve in recent weeks despite sky-high debts, a slump in demand and no clear direction about how the government will turn the money-losing driller around....
    Price 89cents...high 8.25% ytm ..very interesting vehicle to look at
    Cusip
    71654QCT7
  • Your favorite Dividend Paying Funds
    You can’t fake, manipulate or fudge a dividend payment by hiring a talented CPA.
    Ask any fund manager about "return of capital" as a dividend and you'll see manipulation/fudging is exactly what can be done.
  • Your favorite Dividend Paying Funds
    Anyone have a list of dividend paying funds they recommend?
    Fundamentals are more complex than they seem.
    One of the simplest, yet most overlooked, stock market fundamentals is the dividend yield. Dividends are actual cash flows being paid out by corporations into the hands of investors.
    You can’t fake, manipulate or fudge a dividend payment by hiring a talented CPA.
    Dividends also happen to be one of the most resilient features of the stock market over the long-term.
    A little bumpy at times but the real growth rate of 2.1% over the rate of inflation over the last 100 years is impressive.
    That doesn’t sound like much but the inflation rate over this time frame was just shy of 3%. So nominal dividends have grown at an annual rate of roughly 5% since 1920.
    the-best-source-of-investment-income/
  • Vanguard’s $50 Billion Woman Found Winners in Bond-Market Chaos
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-20/vanguard-s-50-billion-woman-found-winners-in-bond-market-chaos
    Vanguard’s $50 Billion Woman Found Winners in Bond-Market Chaos
    By Liz McCormick
    Wright-Casparius has several funds outperforming most peers
    Industry veteran is one of 27 women heading bond funds, ETFs
    One of the worst-ever bouts of dislocation in the U.S. bond market generated some winning trades for Vanguard Group’s Inc.’s Gemma Wright-Casparius.
  • In BlackRock We Trust
    Don't Fight the Fed...
    When the Federal Reserve needed Wall Street’s help with its pandemic rescue mission, it went straight to Larry Fink. The BlackRock Inc. co-founder, chairman, and chief executive officer has become one of the industry’s most important government whisperers. In contrast to other influential financiers who’ve built on ties to President Trump, Fink possesses a power that’s more technocratic. BlackRock, the world’s largest money manager, can do the things governments need right now.
    The company’s new assignment is a much bigger version of one it took on after the 2008 financial crisis, when the Federal Reserve enlisted it to dispose of toxic mortgage securities from Bear Stearns & Co. and American International Group Inc. This time it will help the Fed prop up the entire corporate bond market by purchasing, on the central bank’s behalf, what could become a $750 billion portfolio of debt.
    One part of the Fed’s plan is to buy bond exchange-traded funds. BlackRock itself runs ETFs under the iShares brand, and could end up buying funds it manages. There are rules in place to avoid conflicts of interest—for example, it won’t charge the Fed management fees on ETF shares. “BlackRock is acting as a fiduciary to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,” says a spokesman for the company.
    “It’s impossible to think of BlackRock without thinking of them as a fourth branch of government,” says William Birdthistle, a professor at the Chicago-Kent College of Law who studies the fund industry.
    how-larry-fink-s-blackrock-is-helping-the-fed-with-bond-buying
  • Chips and Geopolitics
    Seems like some beer and salsa might help the situation with chips and politics:
    The reason this matters is because chips matter for many use cases outside of PCs and servers — Intel’s focus — which is to say that TSMC matters. Nearly every piece of equipment these days, military or otherwise, has a processor inside. Some of these don’t require particularly high performance, and can be manufactured by fabs built years ago all over the U.S. and across the world; others, though, require the most advanced processes, which means they must be manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.
    This is a big problem if you are a U.S. military planner. Your job is not to figure out if there will ever be a war between the U.S. and China, but to plan for an eventuality you hope never occurs. And in that planning the fact that TSMC’s foundries — and Samsung’s — are within easy reach of Chinese missiles is a major issue.
    https://stratechery.com/2020/chips-and-geopolitics/
  • Don’t even think of owning stocks unless you’re willing to buy and hold for at least 10 years
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-even-think-of-owning-stocks-unless-youre-willing-to-buy-and-hold-for-this-many-years-2020-05-19
    Opinion: Don’t even think of owning stocks unless you’re willing to buy and hold for at least 10 years
    M.Hulbert article
    If you want a 95% probability of stocks outperforming bonds, you better plan on 20 years....
    Imho maybe 3-10 yrs may see reasonable gains, but if hold on 20 yrs, may even be better...maybe ???++450s% by the time you are done [hopeful speculative thinking]
  • Riding the Liquidity Wave
    https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-perspective?cmp=em-QYB
    /Some investors were surprised by U.S. stock market gains in April and early May, during a period of dismal economic news. Although the U.S. unemployment rate surged to 14.7% in April, a month in which 20.5 million jobs were lost, the S&P 500® index rose 13%. The index continued to gain ground in the first half of May. /
  • Low risk vanguard retirement portfolio
    Here is my "secret" how to beat the above at 6.96% annual return. All you need is just one fund VWIAX. See results (here)
  • 10 Best bank stocks
    https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/slideshows/the-best-bank-stocks-to-buy-this-year?src=usn_invested_nl
    10 of the Best Bank Stocks to Buy for 2020
    The best financial stocks to buy for 2020 have had a tough year but are faring better than the sector.
    Anyone buying adding to bank stocks/etf. VHF
  • gold continue to outperform sp500
    follow up articles
    https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-19/Gold-silver-prices-pause-after-recent-solid-gains.html
    News) - Gold and silver prices are trading near steady in early action Tuesday, on some normal chart consolidation and pausing after recent good gains. Less anxiety in the marketplace so far this week is working against the safe-haven metals, but not in a strong fashion. June gold futures were last up $1.30 an ounce at $1,735.80. July Comex silver prices were last up $0.017 at $17.485 an ounce.
    gold/commodities have pause after recent uptrends
  • The Hartford Total Return Bond Fund (class I) reopening to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1006415/000110465920063503/tm2019943-2_497.htm
    may 19, 2020
    SUPPLEMENT TO THE FOLLOWING PROSPECTUSES:
    THE HARTFORD TOTAL RETURN BOND FUND SUMMARY PROSPECTUS
    DATED FEBRUARY 28, 2020, AS RESTATED MAY 7, 2020
    AND
    HARTFORD FIXED INCOME FUNDS PROSPECTUS
    DATED FEBRUARY 28, 2020, AS SUPPLEMENTED THROUGH MAY 7, 2020
    This Supplement contains new and additional information regarding The Hartford Total Return Bond Fund and should be read in connection with your Summary Prospectus and Statutory Prospectus.
    Effective as of the opening of business on June 5, 2020, Class I shares of The Hartford Total Return Bond Fund will no longer be closed to new investors and will be available for purchase by all eligible investors. Accordingly, the following changes are being made to the above referenced Summary Prospectus and Statutory Prospectus effective June 5, 2020:
    (1) The paragraph above the share class and ticker table on the front cover page of the above referenced Summary Prospectus is deleted and replaced with the following:
    Class C shares of the Fund are closed to new investors. No purchases of a closed share class are allowed, other than as described in this summary prospectus.
    (2) The footnote next to The Hartford Total Return Bond Fund on the front cover page of the above referenced Statutory Prospectus is deleted and replaced with the following:
    * Class C shares of the Fund are closed to new investors. No purchases of a closed share class are allowed, other than as described in this Prospectus.
    (3) Under the heading “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” in the above referenced Summary Prospectus and the heading “The Hartford Total Return Bond Fund Summary Section – Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” in the above referenced Statutory Prospectus, the first paragraph is deleted and replaced with the following:
    Class C shares of the Fund are closed to new investors. No purchases of a closed share class are allowed, other than as follows: (i) purchases by shareholders of record of the Fund as of March 29, 2019 to add to their existing Fund accounts through subsequent purchases, or through exchanges from other Hartford mutual funds; (ii) purchases through reinvestment of dividends or capital gains distributions; (iii) purchases by certain financial institutions or financial intermediary firms that have been approved by Hartford Funds Distributors, LLC to purchase shares of the Fund on behalf of their client; and (iv) purchases, including through reinvestment of dividends or capital gains distributions, by any shareholder who receives shares of the Fund as part of a reorganization. Please see the section entitled “Classes of Shares” in the Fund’s statutory prospectus for more information. Not all share classes are available for all investors. Minimum investment amounts may be waived for certain accounts. Certain financial intermediaries may impose different restrictions than those described below.
    (4) Under the heading “Classes of Shares” in the above referenced Statutory Prospectus, the footnote next to Total Return Bond Fund in the share class table is deleted and replaced with the following:
    (1) Class C shares of the Fund are closed to new investors. No purchases of a closed share class are allowed, other than as described in the Summary Section. Investors should contact their financial professional to determine whether they are eligible to purchase shares of the Fund. If you believe you are eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, you may be required to provide appropriate proof of eligibility. The Fund reserves the right to: (i) reject any purchase order if it believes that acceptance of such order would interfere with its ability to be effectively managed; (ii) reopen a share class of the Fund to new investors at a future date; (iii) issue shares in connection with a reorganization; and (iv) make additional exceptions, limit the above exceptions, or otherwise modify the foregoing closure policy for any reason. You may obtain additional information by calling Hartford Funds at: 1-888-843-7824.
    This Supplement should be retained with your Summary Prospectus and Statutory Prospectus for future reference.
    HV-7536
    May 2020
  • Privacy? WHAT privacy? Suit vs. SEC (link only, from "Investment News")
    Yes, color me suspicious. Though in general, any press release put out by a company or organization must be regarded as an advocacy piece, aka "spin". Likewise for third party reporting based upon PRs.
    The ASA news release on their website (linked to, above), cites approvingly a letter sent by five "Senior members of the House Financial Services Committee". The news release points to it as calling on the SEC to remove personally identifiable info from the CAT database.
    Actually, the letter praises the SEC for saying that it would not require SSNs or various other personally identifiable info to go in the CAT database. What these five GOP House members praised ultimately became the exemption order that ASA is petitioning to set aside. So outside of complaining about reporting in general, what is the point of the ASA petition?
    The letter from these Congressmen begins:
    We write in strong support of your recent comments indicating that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC or Commission) will significantly limit its collection of retail investors' personally identifiable information (PII) as pait of the Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT). We welcome your statement that the Commission will not require retail investors' Social Security numbers to be collected and stored in the CAT. We appreciate the Commission's ongoing work on the CAT and agree that it is important for regulators to be able to oversee the capital markets on a consolidated basis. However, we strongly believe that the CAT can, and should, fulfill its intended purpose without collecting Main Street investors' PII.
    https://d1d329da-dbb0-4cc9-b461-d7bd4ad09b4e.usrfiles.com/ugd/d1d329_13b9948593544d9d8d73e17185af1591.pdf
  • Privacy? WHAT privacy? Suit vs. SEC (link only, from "Investment News")
    The SEC exemption order being appealed provides a mechanism for the SEC to separate out personally identifiable information (PII) from its Consolatidated Audit Trail (CAT) database. As near as I can tell (I'm not inclined to dig too deeply into this), the American Securities Association (ASA) is appealing this because it claims that such personal info (e.g. SSN, date of birth) serves no useful purpose whatsover.
    Here's ThinkAdvisor's reporting on the American Securities Association (ASA) petition.
    https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/05/18/group-sues-sec-over-collection-of-investor-data/
    It includes a link to a 1,629 page filing. Only the first four pages are new. The rest are attachments: the SEC exemption order (March 17, 2020), an older SEC order (November 15, 2016), and an SEC final rule (July 18, 2012).
    The petition is to "modify or set aside in pertinent part" these orders.
    While I am a strong privacy advocate, on its face the PR (including a WSJ op ed) seems to be at least in part about spin. It makes noises about lack of security, but that's a distraction. Once one makes the argument that the personal info serves no benefit at all, security is irrelevant.
    Security issue as distraction. According to the ThinkAdvisor piece
    In the suit, the ASA requests an alternative approach to the CAT’s generation of a customer ID that does not require broker-dealers to report individual clients’ Social Security or taxpayer identification numbers to the CAT.
    Yet that's just what the exemption order being appealed does.
    https://www.sec.gov/rules/exorders/2020/34-88393.pdf
    Participants seek exemptive relief from ... the CAT NMS Plan (1) to allow for an alternative approach to generating a CAT Customer ID (“CCID”) without requiring Industry Members to report individual social security numbers or tax payer identification numbers collectively, “SSNs”) to the consolidated audit trail (“CAT”) (the “CCID Alternative”); and (2) to allow for an alternative approach which would exempt the reporting of dates of birth and account numbers associated with natural person retail Customers to the CAT ...
    [T]his Order grants the Participants’ request for exemptions ... subject to certain conditions.
    It goes on to say that use of the CAT Customer ID (CCID) "allow[s] the elimination of SSNs from the CAT."
    Argument that personal info is of no use. ASA's website says that:
    The collection of retail investor PII in no way bolsters the ability of the SEC to oversee equity markets more effectively as the Commission has brought over 400 insider trading cases between FY2011-2019 (averaging over 44 per year). These numbers clearly illustrate that (1) the SEC has no issue in bringing insider trading cases against individuals who violate its rules, and (2) collecting retail investor will needlessly subject millions of American investors to identity theft by cyberhackers for no regulatory benefit.
    https://www.americansecurities.org/post/lawsuit-filed-against-sec-to-protect-american-investor-privacy
    I've highlighted some of the more breathless phrases.
    400 cases in a decade is presented with no context. Is this a large number? We're supposed to think so. Like saying that some number of people have been tested for COVID-19 without saying how many could have been tested with better procedures.
    I really don't know what the cost/benefits are. What I do see, though, is just one side being presented through press releases.
  • Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff Say, "This Time Really Is Different"
    Interview with Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff.
    Some excerpts:
    The biggest positive productivity shock we’ve had over the last 40 years has been globalization together with technology. And I think if you take away the globalization, you probably take away some of the technology.
    ...you probably need a debt moratorium that’s fairly widespread for emerging markets and developing economies. As an analogy, the IMF or Chapter 11 bankruptcy is very good at dealing with a couple of countries or a couple of firms at a time. But just as the hospitals can’t handle all the Covid-19 patients showing up in the same week, neither can our bankruptcy system and neither can the international financial institutions
    I indeed hope it is the G-20 and not just the G-19. China needs to be on board with debt relief. That’s a big issue. The largest official creditor by far is China. If China is not fully on board on granting debt relief, then the initiative is going to offer little or no relief. If the savings are just going to be used to repay debts to China, well, that would be a tragedy.
    Do you see an inflationary surge at some point?
    KR: We don’t know where we will come out. So the probability is, for the foreseeable future, we’ll have deflation. But at the end of this, I think we’re going to have experienced an extremely negative productivity shock with deglobalization. In terms of growth and productivity, they will be lasting negative shocks, and demand may come back. And then you have the many forces that have led to very low inflation maybe going into reverse, either because of deglobalization or because workers will strengthen their rights. The market sees essentially zero chance of ever having inflation again. And I think that’s very wrong.
    BM: And what scars are left on economies once the pandemic passes?
    CR: Some of the scars are on supply chains. I don’t think we’ll return to their precrisis normal. We’re going to see a lot of risk aversion. We’ll be more inward-looking, self-sufficient in medical supplies, self-sufficient in food.
    Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff Say This Time Really Is Different:
    harvard-s-financial-crisis-experts-this-time-really-is-different