Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Are Critics Right? Is It Time To Dump Your 401(k) Account?
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/retirement/retirement-planning-401k-critics-right/
    Are Critics Right? Is It Time To Dump Your 401(k) Account?
    /PAUL KATZEFF 08:00 AM ET 07/13/2020
    Critics, including some high-profile celebrity talking heads, are bashing 401(k) accounts. They claim 401(k)s are riddled with flaws and will burn you later. Are they right? Are you sabotaging your retirement planning by stashing money inside those popular workplace retirement savings plans?/
    Put in Roth or sepira ./tdf..
    We did both sep ira and tdf
  • A Dash of Insight: Weighing the Week Ahead
    Lots of investing data with links to other articles:
    I drew upon the wisdom of Satchel Paige who counseled, “Don’t look back; something might be gaining on you.” Markets have reflected the perceptions of those focused on the most recent changes. The forward-looking quality depends on the accuracy of these perceptions. I did not really expect major media to follow this theme, since no one else is trying to measure and explain the linkages between the pandemic, the economy, earnings, and stock prices. I have been following my 2020 resolution of asking myself each week, “What is the most important thing for investors to think about?” I was delighted to see comments (and I read them all) from some of my most astute readers underscoring the importance of this approach.
    https://dashofinsight.com/weighing-the-week-ahead-time-for-some-hedging/
  • What’s next after market surge?
    http://mobile.royalgazette.com/bryan-dooley/article/20200713/whats-next-after-market-surge&template=mobileart
    What’s next after market surge?
    Jul 13, 2020 at 11:02 am
    Bouncing back: stock markets including the New York Stock Exchange rebounded strongly during the second quarter
    Due largely to unprecedented government stimulus programmes, global markets recovered strongly in the second quarter. The S&P 500 gained 20.54 per cent while the MSCI World Index recovered 19.57 per cent, marking the best quarterly performance is 1998. Initial gains in the consumer staples and healthcare sectors were followed by a recovery in consumer discretionary stocks. Meanwhile, information technology remained a bright spot as the Nasdaq touched a new all-time high.
    Got article from friend.
    Reasonable assumptions and input regarding current market conditions...maybe good to consider adding to health care and biotechnology & tech for near future and intermediate longer terms
  • Charles de Lardemelle is leaving IVA Fiduciary Trust
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437921/000094937720000245/iva_497.htm
    497 1 iva_497.htm
    IVA FIDUCIARY TRUST
    IVA Worldwide Fund
    IVA International Fund
    Supplement dated July 13, 2020 to the
    Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated January 31, 2020 for the IVA Worldwide Fund and IVA International Fund
    (together, the “Funds”)
    This supplement updates information in the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information of the IVA Fiduciary Trust (the “Trust”), each dated January 31, 2020. You may obtain copies of the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information free of charge, upon request, by calling the toll-free number (866) 941-4482 or by visiting the Trust’s website at www.ivafunds.com.
    Effective July 13, 2020, Charles de Lardemelle is no longer a portfolio manager of the Funds. All references to Mr. de Lardemelle are hereby removed from the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
    Charles de Vaulx remains primarily responsible for the day-to-day management of the Funds and serves as Chief Investment Officer of the Adviser.
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    Some type of bond is likely a part of your portfolio, whether a direct investment into a sector or a mix in an income or allocation fund.
    I'll place this list again for a view of performance YTD (about mid-year for 2020). You may choose to review this bond list (copy/paste to your own document) periodically as a reference to performance. I don't anticipate updating this list. Pricing performance is where the gains or losses take place. I'm not attempting to find or chase a high yield. My preference is that a given bond area has a declining yield to provide for a likely increase in the price.
    A few views from bondland, for AAA rated bonds:
    JULY 10 WEEK / YTD
    --- MINT = - .05% / +.9% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity)
    --- SHY = - 02% / +2.9% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + .0% /+5.2% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.5% /+6.9% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.2% / +6.6% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = +.6% / + 18% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +1.7% /+23.8% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -2.5% / +31.6% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.8% /+33.8% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = +.4 / -3.7% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +.6% / +7.8% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    I have also previously noted that EDV, TLT and ZROZ can be very hot potatoes to manage and require a close watch and what may adjust their directions.
    ***** It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. *****
    Henry David Thoreau

    Please alert me as to any errors.
    NOTE: our portfolio at this time is fully tax sheltered investments and with this; we don't have concern with the taxable status of distributions or buys and sells in this area.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • FPA New Income, Inc. limited availability to new investors as of August 1, 2020
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99203/000110465920082874/tm2024548-1_497seq.htm
    ...Effective August 1, 2020, the following is added to the front page of the Prospectus:
    Fund shares are presently offered for sale only to existing shareholders and to directors, officers and employees
    of the Fund, the Fund’s Adviser, First Pacific Advisors, LP, and affiliated companies, and their immediate
    relatives, and certain categories of shareholders.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the section titled “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” on page 8 is replaced in its entirety with the following:
    Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares
    The Fund has discontinued indefinitely the sale of its shares to new investors, except existing shareholders, directors, officers and employees of the Fund, the Adviser and affiliated companies, and their immediate relatives. See the section entitled “Limited Availability to New Investors” for a description of shareholders eligible to purchase shares of the Fund. Investors may purchase or redeem Fund shares on any business day by written request, check, wire, ACH (Automated Clearing House), telephone, or through dealers as further described in this prospectus. You may conduct transactions by mail (FPA Funds, c/o UMB Fund Services, Inc., P.O. Box 2175, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53201-2175, or 235 West Galena Street, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53212), by wire, or by telephone at (800) 638-3060. Purchases and redemptions by telephone are only permitted if you previously established this option in your account. Eligible investors can use the Account Application for initial purchases.
    Eligible investors can purchase shares by contacting any investment dealer authorized to sell the Fund’s shares. The minimum initial investment is $1,500, and each subsequent investment, which can be made directly to UMB Fund Services, Inc., must be at least $100. However, as described herein, no minimum investment amount is imposed for subsequent investments in retirement plans. All purchases made by check should be in U.S. dollars and made payable to the FPA Funds. Third party, starter or counter checks will not be accepted. A charge may be imposed if a check does not clear. The Fund reserves the right to waive or lower purchase and investment minimums in certain circumstances. For example, the minimums listed above may be waived or lowered for investors who are customers of certain financial intermediaries that hold the Fund’s shares in certain omnibus accounts, at the discretion of the officers of the Fund. In addition, financial intermediaries may impose their own minimum investment and subsequent purchase amounts.
    Subsequent investments and redemptions can be made directly to UMB Fund Services, Inc.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the following is added at the beginning of the section titled “Investing with the Fund” on page 23:
    LIMITED AVAILABILITY TO NEW INVESTORS
    The availability of shares of the Fund to new investors is limited. The Fund has discontinued indefinitely the sale of its shares to new investors, except existing shareholders, directors, officers and employees of the Fund, the Adviser and affiliated companies, and their immediate relatives. Affiliated companies include: current and former directors, officers and employees of the Adviser (and its predecessor firm and such predecessor firm’s parent firms) and its affiliates; current and former directors of, and partners and employees of legal counsel to, the investment companies advised by the Adviser; investment advisory clients of the Adviser and consultants to such clients and their directors, officers and employees; employees (including registered representatives) of a dealer that has a selling group agreement with UMB Distribution Services, LLC and consents to the purchases; any employee benefit plan maintained for the benefit of such qualified investors; directors, officers and employees of a company whose employee benefit plan holds shares of one or more of the FPA Funds; and directors, officers and employees of the Fund’s custodian and transfer agent.
    In addition, the Fund will allow new investors to purchase shares if they fall into one of the following categories:
    1. Clients of an institutional consultant, a financial advisor, a financial planner, or an affiliate of a financial advisor or financial planner, who has client assets invested with the Fund or the Adviser at the time of the investor’s application;
    2. Investors purchasing Fund shares through a sponsored fee-based program where shares of the Fund are made available to that program pursuant to an agreement with FPA Funds or UMB Distribution Services, LLC, and FPA Funds or UMB Distribution Services, LLC has notified the sponsor of that program, in writing, that shares may be offered through such program and has not withdrawn that notification;
    3. Investors transferring or “rolling over” into a Fund IRA from an employee benefit plan through which the investor held shares of the Fund (if an investor’s plan doesn’t qualify for rollovers an investor may still open a new account with all or part of the proceeds of a distribution from the plan);
    4. Investors that are an employee benefit plan or other type of corporate or charitable account sponsored by or affiliated with an organization that also sponsors or is affiliated with (or is related to an organization that sponsors or is affiliated with) another employee benefit plan or corporate or charitable account that is a shareholder of the Fund; or
    5. Investors participating in an employee benefit plan that is already a Fund shareholder.
    The Fund may ask you to verify that you meet one of the categories above prior to permitting you to open a new account in the Fund. The Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. The Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these guidelines.
    The Fund’s ability to impose the guidelines above with respect to accounts held by financial intermediaries may vary depending on the systems capabilities of those intermediaries, applicable contractual and legal restrictions and cooperation of those intermediaries.
    The Fund continues to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions with respect to the accounts of existing shareholders who elect such options.
    The Fund may recommence at any time the offering of shares to all investors if the Board of Directors believes it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    Federal regulations may require the Fund to obtain your name, your date of birth (for a natural person), your residential street address or principal place of business and your Social Security Number, Employer Identification Number or other government issued identification when you open an account. Additional information may be required in certain circumstances or to open accounts for corporations or other entities, and certain information regarding beneficial ownership will be verified, including information about beneficial owners of such entities. The Fund may use this information to attempt to verify your identity and, for legal entities, the identity of beneficial owners. The Fund may not be able to establish an account if the necessary information is not received. The Fund may also place limits on account transactions while it is in the process of attempting to verify your identity and, for legal entities, the identity of beneficial owners. Additionally, if the Fund is unable to verify the identity of you or your beneficial owners after your account is established, the Fund, the Fund's distributor and the Fund's transfer agent each reserve the right to reject further purchase orders from you or to take such other action as they deem reasonable or required by law, including closing your account. If your account is closed for this reason, your shares will be redeemed at the NAV next calculated on the date your account is closed, and you bear the risk of loss.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the section titled “How to Buy Fund Shares” on page 25 of the Prospectus is hereby deleted in its entirety.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    FPA New Income, Inc. (FPNIX)
    Supplement dated July 13, 2020 to the
    Statement of Additional Information dated January 31, 2020
    This Supplement amends information in the Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) for the FPA New Income, Inc. (the “Fund”), dated January 31, 2020. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the SAI may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.fpa.com or calling us at (800) 638-3060.
    Effective August 1, 2020, on page 50 of the SAI, the following language is added to the section titled “Purchase, Redemption and Pricing of Shares”:
    Limited Availability to New Investors. The availability of shares of the Fund to new investors is limited. See the section titled, “Limited Availability to New Investors” in the Prospectus for a complete description of categories of shareholders eligible to purchase shares of the Fund.
    The Fund continues to accept additional investments from existing shareholders, and continues to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions with respect to the accounts of existing shareholders who elect such options.
    The Fund may recommence at any time the offering of shares to all investors if the Board of Directors believes it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Investors face ‘a scary, out-of-whack’ scenario
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-face-a-scary-out-of-whack-scenario-just-look-at-this-chart-2020-07-12
    Investors face ‘a scary, out-of-whack’ scenario — just look at this chart
    ‘Just as these stocks pulled up the entire market, they can pull down the entire market by their sheer weight’
    Where we're headed, nobody knows.
    AAPL
    +0.24%
    MSFT
    -0.30%
    AMZN
    +0.54%
    GOOG
    +2.03%
    FB
    +0.23%
    DJIA
    +1.43%
    If it weren’t for the “Giant 5,” your money would have been better off sitting in cash than the stock market over the past few years, according to Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog.
    The Giant with moderate gains recently,
    Interesting chart
    Wondering if tech downfalls soon follow
  • 10 Best-Performing ETFs of 2020

    https://money.usnews.com/investing/etfs/slideshows/best-performing-etfs
    10 Best-Performing ETFs of 2020
    In the first half of the year, volatility funds and internet plays soared.
    Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY)
    ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)
    O'Shares Global Internet Giants ETF (OGIG)
    ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW)
    ProShares Long Online/Short Stores ETF (CLIX)
    WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD)
    ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)
    ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (VIXM)
    iPath S&P 500 Dynamic VIX ETN (XVZ)
    iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)
  • Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave
    Hi @LarryB- It's very easy to post a link- all you need do is go to the page of interest- in this case, the Atlantic article- and copy the URL (address) of the article. Again in this case, that would be:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/presidents-leave-czars-stick-around/614029/
    If you then just paste that into your post, as I did here, it should work just fine. The software that powers MFO is smart enough to recognize it as an internet link, and will format it automatically for you.
    OJ
  • Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave
    Hi sir Old_joe,
    Just list several events we've seen recently. 3.9 millions new gun applications in June was record number. Lots folks we talked to [mostly business owners] are looking into buying guns; gun supplies also dried up when wd went gun stores and there back logged
    Covid also released many individuals in correctional facilities; courts are closed again. Crimes rate also edging up across many large metropolitans cities... i also talked to several law enforcement officers when are contemplating changing careers because of high risks low reward work
    Met several person had real emergencies at home but police did not show when they called 911
    Of course these are stories that we encountered and we don't have actual facts
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/gun-stocks-rally-as-continued-surge-in-background-checks-street-violence-stoke-demand-2020-06-02
    Swbi stock went up tremendously recently
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/investing/2020/07/04/why-sturm-ruger-is-up-62-in-first-half-of-2020.aspx
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/us-cities-increase-violent-crime-police-group/story?id=71411919
    Pls do stay safe sir
    Regards
  • Stocks That Could Thrive in a Post-Pandemic World
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/business/stocks-after-coronavirus-investors.html?auth=login-google
    Stocks That Could Thrive in a Post-Pandemic World
    Life will return to ‘normal,’ but not entirely. Here are some suggestions for investing in a changed world.
    /When facing a crisis as dire as the coronavirus pandemic, it’s natural to think that everything will change utterly and forever by the time it’s over. But people are resilient creatures of habit, so many aspects of life will return to what used to pass for “normal.”
    But not all of them. Some are bound to be lastingly altered, and the changes may not be the ones that have been bet on, like less air travel and more spending in search of wonder drugs.
    Many trends that were already in place, the virus has pulled forward by five years,” he said, including a shift in shopping and entertainment to the home from outside, and a greater appreciation for remote familial and professional interactions. Although the investment opportunities in these areas have been well flagged, he said, they may have more room to run./
  • Local finances in trouble, but fund investors can still profit – The New York Times
    Local finances in trouble, but fund investors can still profit
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/business/local-finances-troubled-investors-profit.html
    /Just counting the effects of the federal tax exemption, if you are within 24% federal tax bracket, the current 1.4% return from the Vanguard medium-tax-exempt fund is equivalent to a 1.84% return in a taxable bond fund (assuming, of course, that no of both is held in a tax sheltered account). For investors in the 35% federal tax bracket, the return is equivalent to a taxable return of 2.2%. The current average yield on basic bond funds (whose income is taxable) is 1.4%.
    If this yield advantage is attractive, it should be reiterated that the coming months could be difficult.
    Hayes warned that even with the economy reopening, municipal revenues “will only be a percentage of what they were before Covid.” Even if a vaccine arrives, people may not spend as much, rely on public transportation with the same enthusiasm, or drive or fly as much, or flock to stadiums, arenas and convention centers.
    In addition, some states and cities that issued high volumes of bonds already had serious budget problems before the crisis: Illinois and New Jersey had many bonds rated BBB, the lowest step in the investment category. before the coronavirus. These and other states may find it more difficult to emerge from this recession./
  • ESG funds- who's buying
    A previous thread got me thinking, anyone investing in ESG funds, ETFs, or in stocks (based primarily on ESG criteria)?
    New Labor Department Guidance Takes Aim at ESG Investing
    Back in the early 90s, the funds, I was aware of, were Pax World (which I invested in), Calvert Socially Conscious (?), & Parnassus fund. There might have been others, but I forget. Performance over several years in Pax World was so-so and I decided I would invest for return & donate to causes that I felt would make an impact instead.
    In 2018, I revisited the socially conscious investing arena & found it had actually morphed into ESG funds.
    As noted in a Rekenthaler column link (provided by @msf in the previous link):
    The Department of Labor Attempts to Throttle ESG Investing
    As I wrote last month, a key difference between ESG and its predecessor, "socially conscious investing," is that socially conscious managers implicitly admitted that their strategies might reduce their returns, while ESG investors do not. Socially conscious investors used negative screens to eliminate stocks that violated their beliefs. In contrast, ESG investors seek positive attributes, which they claim will make their companies better investments.
    Though to be honest, I don't recall seeing that in the Pax World literature!
    I found the Brown Advisory website to have thoughtful insights & information available & decided to invest in BIAWX at the time.
    This is their 2019 Impact Report
    Today BIAWX is my largest equity holding.
    I would consider Parnassus funds as well. They've been consistent, around a long time, & their website also provides a ton of information in this area.
    Parnassus
    BIAWX & PRILX have both been competitive:
    Portfolio Visualizer
    I would have thought that there might be a lot of overlap in their holdings but there wasn't. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Danaher, & Verisk Analytics make up about 20% for each but are otherwise not.
    As the ESG arena flourishes, I am also skeptical in the metrics used to quantify companies & funds.
    Take Tesla (TSLA), electric cars, renewable energy, & Elon Musk.
    Without evidence, Musk blames ‘false positives’ for surge in coronavirus cases
    Any thoughts?
  • The muni market overall is set for more gains, but some bonds are riskier than they appear
    While I generally try to take a longer view rather than be unduly influenced by (relatively) recent experiences, I admit upfront to being biased here by the 2008 collapse of the muni bond insurers.
    ISTM that insurers can provide a valuable service when they spread their risks and payouts are isolated. But results can be disastrous in the face of a systemic failure.
    ...[T]he low frequency of municipal bond defaults made the insurance business seem quite safe. Insurers responded by increasing their leverage—using less capital to insure more bonds—and diversifying into the more profitable business of insuring structured finance debt instruments such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).
    Structured finance proved fatal to most insurers during the financial crisis. Defaults on CDOs backed by subprime mortgages resulted in numerous claims on the insurance companies’ thin layers of capital, which (at least in the case of MBIA) was less than 1 percent of insured par. As a result, all insurers either became insolvent or suffered multiple notch downgrades. At the beginning of 2008, Moody’s rated seven bond insurers Aaa; none carried this rating by the end of 2010.
    Since 2012, only three insurers have been active, and none were rated higher than AA/Aa by the major rating agencies.
    https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/mercatus-kriz-joffe-municipal-bond-insurance-v1a.pdf
    Muni bond insurance appears to be in the throes of adverse selection. The market for coverage of new issues peaked at 57% in 2005 [ibid.], and is now at just 5-6%. Adverse selection occurs when the "healthiest" issuers opt out because they'd rather not subsidize the risk of the "sickest" (lowest rated) issuers.
    The insurers seem to be focusing more these days on their muni bond coverage. So while they don't have CDO exposure, a systemic problem in the muni market could sink them this time. Especially given the lower (still investment) grade bonds that they are likely insuring.
    For example, MMIN's top holding, Phenix City Alabama Brd Ed Sch Tax Wts 4.0%, due 8/1/2037T (CUSIP 717335CC5) has an underlying rating of A+ according to S&P. (See EMMA for ratings)
    I'm not knocking the value of the insurance for isolated defaults. I am wondering about the value if the concern is municipal risk in general.
  • The S&P 500 will fall 8% by the end of 2020, according to BOA CHIEF
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-sp-500-fall-end-2020-bank-of-america-2020-7-1029383104#
    The S&P 500 will fall 8% by the end of 2020, according to Bank of America's equity chief, who says a Joe Biden victory could tank stocks
    Shalini Nagarajan
    Jul. 10, 2020, 11:48 AM
    Brad Barket/Getty
    /Bank of America's head of equity research predicts the S&P 500 index will fall to 2,900 by the end of the year, an 8% decline from current levels, MarketWatch said.
    "I wouldn't paint myself as a bear, but the risks between here and year-end are completely to the downside," Savita Subramanaian said in a webinar conducted by the bank.
    She pointed out that a Joe Biden victory in November could reverse market-friendly policies, and push stocks lower.
    For investors favoring stocks that benefit from the coronavirus, she recommended leaning towards consumer staples, industrials, technology, and financials instead./
    Whomever will be next POTUS Nov2020, may have issues next year dealing with COVID19 morbidity and mortality. If virus linger on this fall/winter may drag market down /stagnation next 3-24 months
    Not sure many investors will highly consider Biden because of high corporate taxation.
    His plans for middle income Americans are almost similar to Trump for now, no plans to increase taxation.
    Anyone have data for Biden proposed 401k plans / brokerage accounts [? any new fees or taxation plans]
  • Commentary: China has already peaked and faces economic stagnation
    The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that China has yet to break through the material science that goes into the latest microscopic chips, despite throwing money at the challenge of successive programs, the latest commanding over $ 20 billion of dollars. Its high-end chip industry is ten years behind, but in ten years the infrastructure for global cyber dominance will already be in place.In short, the United States controls the global semiconductor ecosystem, working closely with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. All Washington had to do at the end of May was to move their fingers and TCMS of Taiwan instantly cut the chips to Huawei, suddenly condemning the company’s global G5 quest.
    Britain cannot stay with Huawei even if it wants to. US Congress Won’t Authorize Branch of Chinese State – Serving Xi’s Doctrine civil-military merger – acquire global control over a key technological break point.
    China is already in Germany...Any telecommunications group aiming to pursue Huawei’s G5 plans in these circumstances commits financial suicide. Deutsche Telekom internal documents speak of “Armageddon” if the German firm is forced to replace 3 billion euros of Huawei equipment already installed. Armageddon is what they are going to get.
    https://fr24news.com/a/2020/07/china-has-already-peaked-and-faces-economic-stagnation.html
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    Mr. Seed is able to provide interesting data and thoughts.
    With his knowledge of the bond world, he indeed should be a very wealthy man.
    'Course, this statement:
    "Summary: Don’t Listen to Bloomberg, Treasuries Aren’t for Everyone, at Least at These Rates."
    He does note the money that can be made during falling yields, but IMHO; he could have dedicated a few more words regarding this.
    I'm reminded of the period of falling yields after the melt in 2008. At the time, I also watched some CNBC tv. The commentators would mention falling Treasury yields and a fairly standard verbal statement would be, "you're not going to get much for your money with those." These folks, I presume; have enough financial wisdom to know what happens to bond pricing when the yields are falling. I watched numerous times expecting one of them to say that when yields are falling you may make good money from the price increases. Nope !!!
    And from where do folks think a lot of the price appreciation arrives for the more plain vanilla balanced funds, be they moderate or conservative, during these past decades. Sure........the bonds.
    Two and one half years chart of BAGIX v AGG v SPY . I used this time period, as 2018 had several bumps for equity, not counting the big bump on Christmas eve of 2018. So, if one held a decent bond fund or even the etf AGG, your holdings on those clunky bonds provided, eh? The point for the etf, is that these can provide, too; although I prefer a proven active managed bond fund at this time. Using sector etf's in bondland will allow one to build whatever mix you choose. Choices for a mixer are vast, as never before.
    Lastly, we've traveled this bond turf many times. If you feel that yields may continue to move lower, you'll make money with quality bonds. If the hot equity market is going to melt, you'll likely do well with Treasury issues. If you are sure yields are going to move higher, then time to assess whatever bonds you're invested. If one finds an alternate, long/short or other magic box fund that is of interest, compare its life span to say a, FBALX or even VWINX to discover the ability of the fund to provide for profits.
    Some of the investment grade bond funds have been flat for a few weeks (too much money after equity, I suspect). This week has found more positive moves (price). Perhaps the bond folks are buying on the cheap, or hedging that equity is a bit too hot.
    I don't know.
    The ultimate consideration for one's portfolio is capital preservation and that you are comfortable with your choices. More now, than ever before; one has every which way to customize a portfolio.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • The muni market overall is set for more gains, but some bonds are riskier than they appear
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/the-muni-market-overall-is-set-for-more-gains-but-some-bonds-are-riskier-than-they-appear.html
    The muni market overall is set for more gains, but some bonds are riskier than they appear
    In the bond universe, munis are cheap but buyers need to beware of what is in their muni portfolio as Covid exposure has not impacted all sectors equally.
    The market should find a positive catalyst this summer in another round of federal aid, which Congress will address later this month.
    Water and sewer bonds, with their steady revenue stream, outperformed other sectors in the first half, while hospitals and transportation were the weakest.
    Strategists say education bonds provide opportunities, but investors should pick carefully because the coronavirus could have a big impact on the revenues of some private schools.
    ..Summer of more pains to come perhaps (high risks in muni and corp bonds, mm cd extremely low yields. High stock volatilities). Nothing working well now
  • New Labor Department Guidance Takes Aim at ESG Investing
    I'm not disagreeing with you regarding the "ESG managers" part, but with the author's assertion that "Their environmental and social concerns less clearly reflect self-interest." I fundamentally disagree. The average employee age is irrelevant unless you believe this current generation is the last to invest in 401ks. The future of 401k investors is on the line. Actually, I am disagreeing with you somewhat because using a phrase like "ESG managers maintain..." casts doubt on the reality of the business risks climate change poses. The verb "maintain" suggests a weak lawyerly defensive argument by ESG managers as opposed to the scientific facts of the risks, which in 2020 are more couched in reality than any finance theory currently treated as gospel. The equivalent phrasing would be "Bill Cosby maintains his innocence."