Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
A ton of wisdom in a short interview article. Allan Roth is one very smart guy. You'll enjoy the article and learn plenty simultaneously. Here is just one of the nuggets of insight provided in the interview:
“Minimize expenses and emot…
Hi Guys,
These graphs do not support the proposition that investor uncertainty has made any major departure from its historical volatility levels. This historical data clearly demonstrates that perceptions have always been much more easily changed…
Hi Guys,
Market volatility is real; It changes constantly. Volatility is a drag. Subdued volality is a good thing. High volatility does portfolio harm by impacting cumulative returns in a negative manner. The applicable equation subtracts the s…
Hi Guys,
Investing persistent outperformance simply doesn't exist. For one thing persistence is hard to define. What is a proper persistenence time period? That depends, but longer is usually better.
Also, in the marketplace, what worked in the…
Hi Guys,
A number of serious studies demonstrate that female investors outperform male investors. Here is a Link to a short summary of those studies:
https://www.investors.com/news/women-investing-stocks-outperform-men-studies/
And, if you want …
Hi Guys,
No problem. In a short World Series, conventional player usage rules don't apply. The operative rule here is "all hands on deck".
That rule was extensively applied in yesterday's 18 inning marathon. Boston ended the game with a catche…
Hi Again Guys,
By winning the third game marathon the Dodgers have increased their low probability of winning the World Series to 0.375 assuming a 50/50 chance in every game. Since I believe the Boston club is slightly superior to the Dodgers, I'l…
Hi Guys,
Given that the Dodgers are currently down 2 games, the odds are long against them.
Since both teams are champions, when each team takes the field the odds of winning are roughly even. Given that assumption, the chances of the Dodgers wi…
Hi Ted,
Wow! No, your multiple references demand a double Wow!!! I likely will not visit all of them, but I appreciate and applaud your effort.
No real surprise that an up day is followed by a down day. The long term data suggests that we enj…
Hi Hank,
Thank you for your comments. I intended no comments relative to the acumen of any investor either on this site or anywhere else. To each his own. I judge no one on this subject given my extremely limited knowledge and experience in this…
HI Guys,
Nothing! That's my action or more properly reported, that's my inaction. Forecasting the economy and the market is an impossible task. I don't play that Loser's Game. Nobody gets it right consistently although lucky predictions are som…
Hi Guys,
There will always be predictions and projections. Some will even have merit. But this wild guesstimate will definitely fail.
Over several generations it might happen, but not in my lifetime. The change projected is just too, too dramat…
Hi Guys,
Carl Richards is often referenced in the context of risk management. He says smart things about investing in a simple way that most of us understand. That's also reflected in his many cartoons that drive his observations home. Here is a…
Hi msf,
Thanks for your comments. There are numerous Monte Carlo codes accessible on the Internet. Portfolio Visualizer ( now spelled correctly) is just one example. Each has advantages and limitations. I really don't have a favorite. Another …
Hi Guys,
I am an enthusiastic supporter for adding Monte Carlo tools to your investing tool kit. I do recognize it has its limits (like its input uncertainties and the ranges explored) when applying it. A user must be aware of its shortfalls.
Bu…
Hi Ted,
Exactly on target. Thanks very much. I'm old enough to remember Crosby from real time war experiences. I miss him. Also, I did miss some of your earlier postings. Missing them translates into I'm definitely less well informed. My bad.…
Hi Guys,
While the least valuable in any category provides solid avoidance guidelines. I always prefer reports that explore the positive end of the distribution. That.'s more direct actionable info since short selling is high risk adventure.
What…
Hi Guys,
It is a universal truth that we love winning and hate losing. But those emotions are very asymmetric. Many studies reach that same conclusion. In my rough summary of these studies, they almost all conclude that we hate losing about twic…
Hi Old Joe,
Disrespectful, disrespectful, and more disrespectful.
Your comments that you design to degrade my contributions to the MFO board say much more about you and your character than about me. This goes way back to FundAlarm days. The reas…
Hi msf,
Picayune, picayune, and more picayune.
You clearly don't think much of the "way" I suggested that investors might find Monte Carlo analyses tools useful when making investment decisions. But what do you think of Monte Carlo for that purp…
Hi Old Joe,
Your most recent post clearly implies that somehow the sad facility failures that you identified were caused by shortfalls in their design as completed by nuclear engineers with a propensity for Monte Carlo analyses. That's a huge and …
Hi Old Joe,
I often post that everyone gets to choose their own poison.
Like you, when I was preparing for retirement, Monte Carlo codes that addressed retirement issues were not readily available. That's why I assembled my own code.
It appears …
Hi msf,
Who was first in discovering the 4% drawdown rule is not significant to me. My number one purpose in my submittals on this topic was to introduce Monte Carlo simulators to those MFOers who might not be familiar with this powerful decision …
Hi msf,
The shortcoming of much that Mr. Bengen did and reported is that he used actual historical market returns, sometimes in the precise order in which these returns were registered. That's a very limiting method. The odds of that happening a…
Hi Slick,
Thanks for giving Monte Carlo a try. Given that you demonstrated an interest to explore this tool, I suggest you might like to examine yet another Monte Carlo code that offers more input flexibility. Here is a Link to one such code:
ht…
Hi Guys,
I was remiss when I failed to reference a typical Monte Carlo simulator that is freely available on the Internet. Sorry about that. Here is my correction:
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VGApp/pe/pubeducation/calculators/RetirementN…
Hi Guys,
The 4% retirement rule is more than just a random percentage selected as a starting point when making that critical retirement date. It is based on multiple studies that included using Monte Carlo analyses that explored thousands of incom…
Hi Guys,
Forecasting the future, especially in financial matters, is indeed hazardous duty. Countless books and articles on forecasting accuracy (more like inaccuracy) can easily fill bookshelves. I own many and hopefully have learned just a litt…
Hi Guys,
In an earlier contribution Old Joe also said: "Exactly. The man has the sensitivity and tact of a parking meter." This attack can not be more personal. It is mean spirited.
It seems that Old Joe is so disturbed by the style in my posts …
Hi LewisBraham,
The heroic John McCain is buried and gone. I badly want this extended personal exchange to end. From my perspective it will do so now since this is definitely my last contribution to this unfortunate exchange.
My signature Best Wi…
Hi LewisBraham,
You truncated my quote to distort my complete thoughts on the matter. That's an act that is not acceptable in an honest exchange or debate.
I fully stated the following: "..... in my opinion, the submittals for this topic were di…
Hi LewisBraham,
I suppose "Different strokes for different folks" might be appropriate here. I certainly was not trying to tell other folks what they should or should not consider meaningful. Sorry if it seemed otherwise; that is never the purpos…
Hi Ted,
You referenced a terrific article that summarized the causes of a bubble formation. It provided ample charts as supporting documentation. Thank you for referencing this short, easy to read, and logical article that addresses a complex and…
Hi Hank,
Thank you for the Link to the real time performance of the embattled(?) song. I enjoyed the selection, it's sentiments, and the singing. I'll save your reference.
Best Wishes
Hi Davidrmoran,
I did not choose to honor "the guy". I chose to honor John McCain. I selected that hymn because it was performed at his service. He planned his funeral. He selected the speakers and other details. He prepared the guest list that …
Hi Guys,
I am not responsible for the actions of my great grandfather, my grandfather, and my father. Neither is McCain and neither are you responsible too.
Some of you are somewhat inclined to make huge extrapolations based on little or no data.…
Hi Guys,
Enough of this meaningless stuff. Here is a salute to John McCain: The Battle Hymn of the Republic:
He was a fighter his entire life. God Bless him!!!!
Best Wishes
Hi Guys,
A very intensive and deep exchange here. Perhaps this quote from Colin Powell might add just a little insight:
"There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, learning from failure."
I suspect most serious …
Hi Guys,
Peter Lynch was referenced earlier in this exchange, and 5 of his famous 20 investing rules were provided. For those who are interested in the complete set of 20 rules, here is a Link to an article that lists all of them:
https://www.gur…