Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Ted,
Thank you for the excellent summary table that you referenced. In general, the table demonstrates the validity of the convention stock/bond wisdom. However, the 2017 bottomline displayed contains a real shocker.
The cumulative return dif…
HI Guys,
More evidence that beating the market is not an impossible challenge. But the odds are long against that outcome.
The percentages change over time and over investment category, but those odds hover under the 5% and less odds. Those are …
HI Hank,
Thanks for reading my post and contributing to this MFO thread. I think your edited version did improve on your original submittal. We all have second thoughts.
Chisholm received a BA in Economics from Trinity College. He did his colle…
Hi Guys,
When to cut and run? Never
When to double down? Never
These actions are far too extreme suggesting precise knowledge of market movement certainty that just does not exist. In the equity marketplace uncertainty rules the day. But what…
Hi Hank,
Thanks again for reading and replying to my post that referenced the Betterment study. You claim that their study is flawed, but don't directly identify the flaws. I don't deal with Betterment and make no assessment of their business mod…
Hi Hank,
I really do believe that frequent portfolio looking encourages frequent action. And that action all too often subtracts from long term realized returns. But that's not just me making some far out claim or assumption. Much research and m…
Hi Guys,
The quarterly reports are just fine for me. Of course some exceptions do exist that drive me to a more frequent examination, but these are very rare events. The following reference paper provides some insightful, valuable and conclusive …
Hi Guys,
Year after year for many decades now, study after study have reinforced a very consistent finding: active trading is a loser's game. Here is a Link to one of these research findings:
https://www.umass.edu/preferen/You Must Read This/Bar…
Hi Old Joe,
Thanks for reading my fully predictable contribution.
It has been some time since I talked Monte Carlo. I'm sure many new MFOers have joined us since I last made a similar recommendation. That code is a powerful tool that will benefi…
Hi Guys,
Well, Ted was dead-on-target.
I tried, but failed to resist submitting a comment on retirement planning. It's a life changing decision. There is no simple, single number for everyone.
I have been and continue to advocate for Monte Carl…
Hi Guys,
It depends. It depends on the timeframe of the forecast. Economic research that records the long term average returns and the variability of various asset class returns are indeed very useful inputs to my investment decision making. It …
Hi Guys,
The postings here have become more and more off-subject. Some of these posts are far removed from the original submittal which served a simple entertainment mission. In fact, I completely fail to see any connection whatsoever. But I'm s…
Hi Davirrmoran,
I just returned from watching an inspired fireworks display funded by my city. It was thrilling and included exciting ground works. I did have a grand Fourth. I always do while sharing it with my relatives. Thank you for asking.…
Hi Crash, Hi Davidrmoran,
You guys show a ton of chutzpah in purportedly analyzing my posts in such a biased manner. Your posts about me, and not the content and references of these posts, say much more about you and not me.
Still, I send my Best…
Hi Guys,
Like so many other MFO posts, the current one took unexpected directions. It was originally designed to simply present a medley of military songs. I had no hidden agenda. It was a direct submittal without any deep and buried motivations…
Hi Ted,
Many thanks for the post. I'm not a Ray Charles fan but I did enjoy his interpretation of the song.
Allow me to add this rendition of God Bless America by Celine Dion:
It's sunrise here so I just put up our Flag, and on this very speci…
Hi Guys,
The US military has and continues to serve us well and honorably. I was a member of the active Army for two years and as a member of the Army Reserves for another three years. I'm sure my bias is dominated by those duty assignments. I wa…
Hi LewisBraham,
Indeed you are correct in stating that some fraction of the men in our Revolutionary War were loyalist. They fought against us, so I indeed overstated that 100% of the men took up arms to fight against the British. Given the final…
Hi LewsBraham,
Thanks for your enlightening contribution.
I submit that our Declaration of Independence would have been a failed document assigned to the dustbin of history without a volunteer army of citizens who almost without exception leaped t…
Hi Ted,
Many thanks and Best Wishes.
And that same album had the very best anti war song I ever heard. It's called "The Band Played Waltzing Matilda". Hopefully I'll be more successful this time around. Here is my attempt to recover it on Utub…
Hi Rforno,
Thanks for your endorsement of the Portfolio Visualizer website. I completely agree.
It is a great resource for investors that offers a broad range of useful tools and market data. I especially like the correlation tool that allows an…
Hi Mark,
Sorry if you feel that I missed the primary thrust of the originating post. In my defense, I contributed in a manner that reflected what I interpreted was the dominant theme of the many responders. Perhaps I misinterpreted that also.
I …
Hi Guys,
I take a more optimistic view of our aging issues.
Our current population is better educated, especially among the women cohort. We live longer gaining about 7 years on average since WWII. If still working, we are granted more flexibili…
Hi Again LewisBraham,
My quick reaction to your question about killing in a bad war is "yes". At the time of the action, soldiers are convinced of the rightness of their current actions. They believe they are the aggrieved party.
When Germany in…
Hi LewisBraham,
Good luck on your wish. Much more beyond luck is required. History tells a completely different story. I suppose a total rewiring of man is needed to even approach your wish, which most folks share.
Thank you for your excellent …
, Hi Guys,
I had an uncle who was wounded while charging the beaches on that historic day. Uncle Mike never talked in terms of glory when he remembered that day. He freely acknowledged his fears, yet he did his duty. That was a rule rather then…
Hi msf,
I disagree that " Amercans tend to glorify their deeds". Our military simply acknowledges and do their duty. They don't seek glory. Their combat motivation individually differs and likely changes over time. Survival is forever a strong,c…
Hi VintageFreak,
I agreed with 100 % of your insightful submittal until your last few observations. I do not believe that "Free advice is never good". The "never" is far too all inclusive.
Certainly free advice is sometimes wrong, but it is also…
Hi Catch22,
"Statistics are supposed to make something easier to understand but when used in a misleading fashion can trick the casual observer into believing something other than what the data shows."
That's not me talking. It's the opening stat…
Hi Guys,
Thanks for your in depth analysis and references. It's a better overall submittal because of your fine contributions.
I especially want to thank Ted for providing an additional Link that allows greatly expanded access. I was unaware of …
Hi Guys,
Statistics provide useful tools and insights to help the investment decision process. But statistics can be wrong or wrongfully applied.
Here is a repeat of a paragraph that I submitted in an earlier post: "We all use data, but please be…
Hi LewisBraham,
Thank you for your extensive reply. It likely absorbed a considerable time to prepare. I respect that. Your emotions run high on this subject, and I respect that too even though we have very disparate opinions on this matter.
Al…
Hi Guys,
We are likely all proud Americans. We dream a common dream of success for ourself and for our Country. Agree with his policies or not, President Trump is the same in that regard. The John Stewart song Mother Country captures that spirit …
Hi Guys,
I know that I promised to abandon this specific discussion, but the personal attacks have prompted me to reconsider. Debating financial matters is the focus of this site; personal attacks are not and often reflect a weak position on the s…
Hi Lewis Braham,
Conscientious objectors have existed forever. It is definity not a new thing. The percentages of US conscientious objectors were under 1% for both WWI and WWII. That US number was just over 4% for the Vietnam conflict. Men have…
Hi LewisBraham,
Thanks again for your recent post. It clearly demonstrates a firm opinion that has many emotional aspects to it. I would never consider an attempt to change that opinion. You own it, and it substantially differs from mine on sold…
Hi LewisBraham,
Indeed it is a tough balancing of competing forces. That's a constant over time. The competing forces themselves help to keep that balance with their demands. Constant attention is mandatory.
Thanks for your research that uncove…
Hi Guys,
This post quickly expanded beyond my initial purpose. I was simply attempting to salute our brave military men, not even the military establishment itself. Your posts turned that simple goal into a complex discussion of the morality of w…
Hi LewisBraham,
I was a proud member of the US military a few years ago. I remember I was continuously exposed to survival techniques. Winning was the only option.
I own the US Army survival Manuel. It has terrific instruction and tips that are…
Hi VintageFreak,
Thanks for sharing your opinion.
I quote from MFO's mission statements: "MFO’s mission is to provide readers with calm, intelligent arguments....." and "A lively discussion board, whose active members are diverse, lively, passiona…
