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From the SEC link,
".....Defendants reduced losses under a market crash scenario in one risk report sent to investors from negative 42.1505489755747% to negative 4.1505489755747% -- by simply dropping the single digit 2. In another example, defend…
There are no "safe" investments beyond CDs, I-Bonds, Treasuries (held to maturity), stable-value funds (in 401k/403b), m-mkt funds, etc, and even those may lose in real terms.
Stick with your investments that are suitable for your risk comfort lev…
Bottom calling is dangerous business. But there are several pointers for being closer to bottom - terrible sentiment, strange high VIX & low SKEW combo (there are discussions of this in the MFO AAII Sentiment threads of the last 2 weeks & el…
Do we wait for magazine covers to appear on this in these internet times? Or, some pieces like this from major brokerage houses are enough? This piece from Schwab isn't really gloomy (may be cautious?) but has a view that gloomy sentiment may be ove…
It is not unusual for active bond ETFs to make daily disclosures of holdings.
Hang up has been for active equity ETFs. They have gone through several iterations and in the most recent one, the SEC has approved several models for nontransparent act…
M* MIC-Chicago 2022 is Mon-Wed and expect many similar interviews in the next few days. These interviews are useful even when new insights are not offered. They tell us what fund managers are doing now. Risk is they are talking their book but that i…
Announcement of Jean Hynes as CEO was made in September 2020 and was to be effective in July 2021. VG Independent Advisor pulled the plug on VGHCX in December 2020. So, it was soon after the announcement but well before her start as CEO.
Thanks for pointing out VG Independent Advisor's past unfavorable view on VGHCX.
M* also notes underperformance since 2016 and that its foreign exposure is high at 25%+. Hynes has been comanager since 2008 and manager since 2013. M* still has (bac…
Factors to consider:
Old Fido 401k to new Fido 401k - typically, you would want to move from a poor plan to better plan. There may be minor differences still between the 2 Fido 401k, but they should be broadly similar. So, it's a wash.
Old Fido 40…
There are pre-market (before open) and after-market (after close) sessions. It is a VERY THIN/ILLIQUID market, so use limit-orders. Even reliable quotes are not available. These sessions don't mix with regular sessions, i.e. nothing carries over bet…
IMO, Elon Musk has found how little TWTR and TSLA stocks are valued as collateral by banks to round up financing (margin & other). He may now be trying to get the cash price of TWTR lowered by a few billions. I just checked the SEC/Edgar filings…
Shake down has started and I am not surprised. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/elon-musk-says-twitter-deal-on-hold-pending-details-on-fake-accounts.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-having-its-worst-year-ever-what-to-buy-instead-51652394644?mod=bol-social-tw
"(Bold for YBB emphasis) The heyday of the 60/40 portfolio, an allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, is over. Acc…
Most floating-rate/bank-loan (FR/BL) securities are low-rated, so they are a subclass of junk/HY. They may have long maturities but their durations are just their rate-reset intervals. Newer and speculative companies favor FR/BL (and convertibles) b…
Markets have several crosscurrents.
One debate is whether market is still too high by some valuation measures. With market down a lot already (Nasdaq Comp and R2000 in bear territory and SP500 approaching that) and AAII Sentiment so negative, I am …
Bitcoin crash continues....
Stablecoins are anything but "stable". First there was one that sank, now there is another that broke the buck. Private guarantees are not limitless. People didn't learn anything from pre-Fed and pre-FDIC experiences wit…
Facebook (and other social-media companies) blames Apple for part of its problems. Apple changed its default ad-settings from opt-out to opt-in. Google may be doing that soon for Android phones.
Apple is also no longer #1 in global market-cap. htt…
People taking profit from energy XLE and bargain hunting in ARKK? What is that saying - cut the flowers and water the weeds (or, is it the reverse)? Hard to know these days what makes sense.
@BaluBalu, in the heady days of allocation/balanced funds, some even touted their performance beating SP500 with one hand tied in the back (i.e. 30-40% in bonds). Of course, that claim couldn't be sustained.
FPURX now is also much different from th…
There are several differences between the OLD VWELX and NEW VWELX.
OLD VWELX:
...was a LOAD fund. After the disaster in the 1970s. Bogle got fired from Wellington Management and started Vanguard. A new era began for funds.
...had a managed-distri…
Here are 2 charts for 1/1/65-12/31/80; unfortunately, M* removed the ability to put multiple tickers in these OLD charts. IMO 1974 was an UGLY start for anything.
VWELX 1/1/65-12/31/80
FPURX 1/1/65-12/31/80
I will look up the old data. I think that 1965-80 was a real stinker stretch for allocation/balanced funds and truly horrible for VWELX (it was a different kind of fund then). Only a few were around then - VWELX, FPURX, DODBX, LOMMX.
Private guarantees for current stablecoins are only as good as their guarantors (until the next run). Wait for the US CBDC for real guarantees (there are some around already, digital-yuan, etc).
Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders has posted a chart of the correlation between Bitcoin and SP500 on Twitter. My guess is that the correlation is even higher for Nasdaq Comp. So, whether one has Bitcoin/cryptos or not, it is worthwhile keeping an eye on them…
I don't know. But CME May 2022 Bitcoin contract high was $60,093 on 11/29/21 & low overnight was $29,700. That is 50%+ retracement & then a strong bounce. Worth keeping an eye on the bounce and any low-retest. https://www.cmegroup.com/
Yesterday Bitcoin dipped momentarily below $30,000 but have rebounded off that low this morning. COIN is following a similar pattern but may be 2x volatility. This is a good sign because the stocks, especially Nasdaq Comp, are correlated with crypto…
A look at some multi-asset and moderate-allocation funds YTD (charts may default to 1 yr; max 5 tickers per chart).
Multi-Asset, YTD
VPGDX -8.44% (it had 9 lives but hopefully in final form now; a recent addition for me)
BAICX -9.94%
FMSDX -12.1…
As of 5/9/22 close, from the recent highs (#StockCharts data),
#SP500 -16.26% YTD
#DJIA -11.26% YTD
#NasdaqComp -27.27% since 11/8/21
#R2000/ $IWM -27.52% since 11/8/21
#EM $EEM -29.87% since 2/12/21
#Highflyers $ARKK -73.59% since 2/12/21
@msf, it seems that @LewisBraham doesn't post or link here his professional stuff in Barron's and elsewhere. There may be contractual or personal reasons. Anyway, I post here stuff from various sources that I THINK the MFO community may like.
https…
@Bobby may be referring to this piece by @LewisBrahamn on American Funds fee reductions, including for its bond funds, that I saw LAST week but that ended up in a separate Barron's Advisor section (behind ANOTHER paywall) - I found a summary in the …
Mortgage & GNMA funds are good for stable rate environments. But due to their negative-convexity, they don't have high upside when rates fall (re-fi go up, duration goes down), but have higher downside when rates rise (re-fi go down, duration go…
Good observation that I ran into elsewhere too.
While YTD is important, indexes had peaks at different times. #DJIA, #SP500 peaked around New Year, #NasdaqComp & #R2000 in early-Nov 2021, highflyers & EMs in Feb 2021. Those hi-to-lo provide…
FKIQX will soon have a CEF cousin FIO.
https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o000063bNUqCAM/new-termstructure-franklin-income-opps-fio-multiasset-goanywhere
Media is reporting that Nasdaq Comp is in a bear market (more than 20% decline from recent high). But small-caps are ALSO in a bear market from their highs on 11/8/21. And look at that SC-growth stinker. Mid-March low didn't hold, so be careful.
Sm…
The current Barron's has a Cover and several features on Transportation (Part 1 is out for those interested). And one cannot talk about that without Musk. Speculation is growing whether Musk will be distracted from his old projects (Tesla, SpaceX, B…
Good SO FAR if you are a holder.
PRWCX has done well too.
DODBX too - with its new longs & some shorts strategy.
But be aware of risks of your holdings. As I noted in a nearby thread, recently among bonds, corporates have done the worst &…
