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Most bonds peaked on 8/1/21 (munis and HY peaked around New Year). Strangely, inv-grade corporates have done the worst and HY the best - that doesn't mean that everyone should just have HY. So, the stock-bond portfolios haven't provided their typica…
Actually, that bear market definition is from the most recent high and for Nasdaq Comp that was 11/22/21. Nasdaq Comp briefly was more than 20% down in mid-March and has been so several times since late-April. On the other hand, DJIA and SP500 peaks…
Current high VIX (live) & low SKEW (EOD yesterday) may also indicate selling exhaustion. But watch for new SKEW value EOD today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84968758803
Powell acknowledged that current policy of managing expectations by talking has been working. Media had floated possible 75-bps frontloaded hike(s) but Powell shot that down good. So, it was a huge relief yesterday that the FOMC announced only 50-bp…
NOTES from Statement(s) and press conference
Factors of concerns include high inflation, supply-chain disruptions, Russia-Ukraine war, Covid-19 spread in China.
+50 bps hike to 0.75-1.00% fed fund range. Possible +50 bps hikes at 2 next FOMC meeti…
@stayCalm, good point. While only future 6-mo returns are assured for I-Bonds, there is about 3-wk window ahead of May 1 and November 1 rate announcements (when the inflation-adjustment is known but small changes in the fixed rate may be speculated)…
I am less hopeful on fixed rate going up anytime soon. There is no formula or procedure prescribed for the fixed rate (as there is for the inflation-adjusted portion) and it is entirely at Treasury's discretion. When I-Bonds were introduced in 1998,…
Think of I-Bond rates as floating-rates that reset every 6 months. But floating-rates are still quoted as annualized rates for consistent comparison with other instruments.
The formula used by Treasury is an approximation of annualization, a carryo…
I think Coke Red Cap - Regular, Black Cap - Zero, While Cap - Diet
https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/argentina-buenos-aires-coke-display-at-convenience-store-picture-id982745384?k=20&m=982745384&s=612x612&w=0&h=K-rb-zcIW0GoFMgARZ…
There is also May 25 US deadline (unless extended) when all dealings with Russian payments (in dollars or rubles) for the US investors will stop except upon specific licensing. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-faces-increased-risk-of-defaul…
Keep expectations reasonable. USFR is a portfolio that will lag in rate hikes for now; there is 15-bps ER drag too. Just buying 3-mo T-bills at Treasury Direct or brokerages (commission-free), and roll-repeat, should get 0.83%+.
https://stockcharts.…
The 2-yr FRNs trade at 3-mo T-Bill rate + spread (positive or negative). So, they should track the (overnight) fed fund rate closely. You can also buy these at brokerages and Treasury Direct. These are obviously INVESTMENT GRADE.
But these are DIFF…
You can buy I-Bonds on any business day at Treasury Direct- there is no auction as such like TIPS. New higher rate will start tomorrow, May 2. Do watch the annual limit as the order screen doesn't.
@Mark, ONEQ follows Nasdaq Comp ($COMPQ), QQQ follow Nasdaq-100 ($NDX). Differences may be due to sampling errors, higher for ONEQ than QQQ.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=ONEQ&compare=$COMPQ,QQQ,$NDX&id=p59796619787
I don't know how often Economist updates. Barron's reported that the EU countries are going to comply with this gas-for-ruble demand ASAP (LINK). This is also confirmed by other sources (LINK2).
"EMERGING MARKETS. Russia stopped NATURAL GAS supplie…
S&P is copying the iShare trick with older ETFs and newer "core" series ETFs, e.g. EEM and IEMG. At the time of introduction of IEMG, EEM was the higher ER giant and iShare said that IEMG was for small investors with lower ER but not so good liq…
That was UGLY!
Free Stockcharts has a limit of 5 charts to display. So, the 2nd link replaces small-cap R2000 with DJ Utilities and those who recently chased the uncharacteristic rally in utilities also got hurt. Reset times to YTD if the links de…
DOL will talk with Fido about ERISA,
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/04/29/us-labor-department-has-grave-concerns-about-fidelitys-plan-for-bitcoin-in-401k-retirement-plans-wall-street-journal-reports/
In cloud-computing,
#1-AWS/AMZN
#2-Azure/MSFT
#3-Google Cloud/GOOGL
One cannot buy these cloud units separately (there are no tracking stocks for those). They come with the whole.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/the-top-cloud-providers-of-2021-aws-m…
With SP500 VIX around 30 and Nasdaq-100 VXN around 35.5, daily volatilities (with divisor of about 19) are +/- 1.6% for SP500 and +/- 1.9% for Nasdaq-100. That is what we are seeing with huge intraday and daily moves.
Geode Capital was launched by Fido as an internal unit but was spun off. It is the index advisor/manager for Fido index funds. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geode_Capital_Management
M* has a better picture for holders of AMZN by "Funds" and "Insti…
3/31/22
Tiny changes from previous month. These 3 months YTD have seen lot of volatility but the fund investors have stayed put.
OEFs: Stocks 53.99%, Hybrids 7.09%, Bonds 20.77%, M-Mkt 18.16%
ETFs: Stocks 82.51%, Hybrids 0.54%, Bonds 16.94%, M-Mk…
BTW, Q1 GDP growth was NEGATIVE. Either the market hasn't had time to grasp that, or it is celebrating.
Now Q2 GDP growth will likely be negative too.
That is spelled RECESSION.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html
Brent futures never went negative. They are settled in cash.
WTI (light/sweet crude) futures did go negative in 2020. They are settled in physical oil. Cushing, OK ran out of storage. Buyers near the furures contract expiry were stuck with physical…
Archegos collapse last year & its aftermath. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/04/27/archegos-owner-hwang-former-cfo-halligan-charged-with-fraud.html
These huge daily up/down moves point to some institution(s) doing major asset re-allocation, or some broker(s) raising huge cash - it isn't easy to suddenly raise $44 billion in cash and there may be related hedging, not to say what international in…
Time to pick up on this update. 2 views of major indexes, 1st YTD (shows Nasdaq Comp down -20.16%), 2nd from 11/22/21 that was Nasdaq high and from there it is now down -21.22%, in a bear market and below 3/14/22 low.
Indexes YTD https://stockchart…
New SEC/Edgar filing today - breakup fee $1 billion; no-shop provision for Twitter but Twitter has to consider a better/higher offer if it comes; other usual contingencies related to shareholder vote, anti-trust/regulatory clearances, etc.
After-h…
Here it is,
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001418091/000119312522117720/d319190d8k.htm
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001418091/000119312522117720/d319190dex991.htm
Summary to follow - well, really not much new.
"Trans…
Amazing that no filing on the deal with SEC/Edgar YET (Monday 3:20 PM Central)! Normally, that is the first thing companies do and then let news disseminate from that. So, here may be Musk's Twitter snubbing SEC?
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CI…
Don't overlook that Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk are friends. How did all this start soon after Dorsey was forced to resign from Twitter. Musk has said that he will get rid of current Twitter Board, or will drop their compensation to $0. Will Jack Dors…
There are reports of a deal but no SEC/Edgar filing yet.
Looking at the details of financing from 4/21/22 filing,
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922048128/tm2213229d1_sc13da.htm
$13 billion, commitment letter from Morgan …
At current 6% discount from previously reported $54.20, market seems to believe more than before. But details remain pending - breakup fees, shop-around option, other terms, etc.
I think that son Howard Buffett is the non-exec successor Chairman (nepotism is practiced here) and Greg Abel is the successor CEO.
CALPERS is just making noises. It and proxy firms may be making a point about WB summarily rejecting some governanc…
Floating-rate/bank-loans (FR/BL) are a subclass of HY even though M* created a separate category in 03/2003. M* intent then was to focus on this subarea, but the M* article author linked in the OP treats FR/BL as something entirely differently from …
No one has commented on the TRANSPARENT structure of these ETFs. It will join a small number of active equity ETFs that will publish portfolio holdings DAILY and more frequently to professionals as needed. It may not be worried about others frontrun…
@BaluBalu, first there were 5 nominations: Powell, Brainard, Cook, Jefferson, Raskin
But Raskin had to withdraw and the replacement now named is Barr.
So, it is 5 nominations again and they can move as a group.
Senate is too busy with lots of big…
Not possible.
OK to convert paper Savings Bonds to electronic form, but reverse not possible.
That is why I suggest people not to rush with paper to electronic conversion - its a headache & then irreversible.
