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yogibearbull

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yogibearbull
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  • @Observant1, yes, and the trade confirmation also indicated that (YTM +0.362%).
  • 5-yr, 0.125% coupon TIPS auction today, 6/23/22, was at real YTM of +0.362%. In the secondary market, the real yield yesterday, 6/22/22, was +0.48%. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/R_20220623_3.pdf
  • There is basic ESG info at the link below. Calvert/Eaton Vance/Morgan Stanley is a huge ESG firm and most firms now have ESG funds. A couple of better known ESG funds are Parnassus/AMG PRBLX and CREF Social Choice (Balanced) VA QCSCIX. The SEC is in…
  • When volume is so low, you can literally see your trade go by on CNBC ticker display. One has to be very careful and must use limit orders. A market buy or sell order of even 1,000 can lead to bad fill. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TOTR/history?p…
  • See this M* thread on BREIT, https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o000060xKYGCA2/blackstone-real-estate
  • Here is the link for past Treasury auctions - click on the TIPS tab. Results of Thursday morning TIPS auction should be posted on Thursday afternoon. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/annceresult.htm
  • Those are for TIPS purchases in the secondary market with bid-ask (you sell at bid, buy at ask). Coupons were fixed when the TIPS were issued, and real YTM shown is based on quoted price. Treasury auctions work a bit differently. Most Treasury auc…
  • @Sven, 5-yr TIPS coupon was specified as 0.125% in the auction announcement that I posted earlier (reposted below). So, my guess is that purchase price would be slightly below par to bump the real rate in the neighborhood of 0.54%. https://www.treas…
  • @msf, the new M* Investor Quote pages (by using the Search-quote window or by clicks on individual holdings of Portfolios ) have Interactive Charts with date windows just as before. Check the chart I posted on TOTR thread. https://investor.morningst…
  • 5-yr real rate is 0.54% now. What matters to buyers is its value on the auction day (Th). The CPI trend is up. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_da…
  • Chart for TOTR, BOND, FBND, TOTL using new M* Investor Interactive Charts (1-yr charts start at TOTR inception). Stockcharts doesn't recognize TOTR yet.
  • Brokers' use of float is real and it is big money for them in the aggregate. I have pointed out that some apparently "free" broker services (CD and Treasury purchases) are not really "free". Whether one chooses to ignore it is another matter. BTW, S…
  • @Derf, current Barron's (see Part 2 elsewhere) is favorable on several publicly listed asset managers. JHG and SCHW didn't make the list; SCHW is more a combo broker-dealer-asset-manager. Fido and Vanguard are private. BULLISH. Asset manager stock…
  • TOTR is a newer ( < 1 yr) active core-plus bond ETF from Price. Gold-Q rating is computer generated; normal M* ratings are after 3 yrs. Competition includes Pimco BOND, Fido FBND, DoubleLine TOTL, etc (all active core-plus ETFs).
  • See this chart for ARKK and short SARK with 2-yr view (change if defaults to 1-yr). Note that ARKK continued with another down-leg after SARK started in November 2021. So, start of SARK didn't lead to bottoming of ARKK. So, start of short Bitcoin-f…
  • Well, Schwab (and Fido) are also docking us (the buyers) for the float when the money is taken from the account several days before the settlement/issue date. That is what @Derf was concerned about his CD purchase. That also concerns me for commissi…
  • @Derf. This is similar to Schwab (and Fido) using float when one buys Treasuries. For your CD, Schwab is using that float + fees it charges the bank to list the CD. So, it is a combo - not either/or. If you call Schwab, it may justify taking your …
  • CD rates quoted by Fido, Schwab, etc are net of any platform fees that offering banks have to pay. Buyers are not charged any additional fees. Brokers are not required to disclose their internal fee info. Buyers should be aware (and check) the FDIC…
  • These 3rd party brokerage platforms (Fido, Schwab, etc) charge 0.25-0.50% fee for the CDs to be listed on their platforms. They don't do this as public service. So, many of these brokered CDs are from less-known and even financially shaky banks; sev…
  • @hank, may be edit the Subject to fix the ticker. Thanks. BTW, bid-ask displayed over the weekends (or, when the markets are not open) are stub/fake quotes, not real at all.
  • There were rumors on Twitter that Europeans were putting pressure on Ukraine to reach some negotiated settlement and energy got hit - XLE fell by 17-18% in a WEEK. But some pointed out that if these rumors were true, the rest of the market (i.e. non…
  • While the fwd P/E for small-cap (SC) R2000 has dropped dramatically, R2000 has many unprofitable companies (30-40% ?). Looking at more selective SP MC 400 and SP SC 600, those fwd P/Es have also dropped dramatically. See these charts by Yardeni via …
  • I compared PREMX and PRELX to ETFs EMB and LEMB. Shown are 1-yr charts - Price funds held up better in 2021 but are doing worse YTD. Things have been difficult and bad for almost everything. Last week even energy and utilities got taken out and shot…
  • The link in my earlier post has been significantly updated. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/256/interactive-charts-newer-investor-portfolios?page=1&scrollTo=669
  • I updated a previous post with the Treasury TIPS announcement that came yesterday - repeated below. Brokerages will now allow order entry until early-morning of the auction on next Thursday. Last time, I used Schwab and it took money out on the aft…
  • It was a leak that the Fed purposefully wanted, so there may not be internal/external investigations. But a guess I have seen in the media is that it may have come from Minnesota Fed president Neel Kashkari (nonvoting FOMC member now) to the WSJ rep…
  • @Ben, you have to click Launch Investor. For now, when you access Portfolio from M* Homepage, the default is the old/legacy Portfolio page that will eventually go away. When you click Launch Investor, you are taken to the new M* Investor page that…
  • M* Investor (Replacing Old/Legacy M* Portfolios) investor.morningstar.com/ I haven't explored the new M* Investor fully. But some comments. 1. I had stopped using the old Watch Lists because I couldn't add Notes there. There is a small headache in…
  • CME FedWatch is indicating 75-50-50-25 bps hikes for 2022. But as Powell said, nothing is for sure and things may change.
  • The fed fund rate was raised by +75 bps (+0.75%) to 1.50-1.75% range & more 50-75 bps increases are coming; the QT is continuing as previously announced. The interest paid on reserves held at the Fed are now 1.65%; the discount/primary rate is 1…
  • ECB follow up https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italian-bond-yields-dive-and-euro-climbs-as-ecb-announces-emergency-meeting-on-market-conditions-11655276116?siteid=yhoof2
  • Managed-futures funds are supposed to latch on to some trend, up or down, to make money. But as far as stocks/SP500 is concerned, PQTIX has been NEGATIVELY correlated. This is seen in the ratio chart of PQTIX:SPY; the bottom panels show PQTIX and SP…
  • 5-Yr TIPS auction is next week Thursday. IMO, they are the next best to I-Bonds. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/150182/#Comment_150182 Real rates are up too and 5-yr real rate is 0.45%. https://home.treasury.gov/resou…
  • Quarterly options expiry day has huge volumes. Unless there is some special news on that day, the trend of the week may just be magnified on Friday. So, Monday was BAD (somebody called yesterday the Crypto-Monday and we will see if that sticks), tod…
  • Shorter-term CDs have yet to catch up with T-Bills/Notes, https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206
  • There seems a leak or many guesses in the media about 75-bps hike. Also, this Friday is HUGE options expiry day - triple/quadruple witching.
  • #Volatility rose sharply across the board today. SP500 $VIX 34.02 +22.59% Nasdaq-100 $VXN 40.36 +18.81% Bond $MOVE 139.21 +21.87% Oil $OVX 47.56% +10.81% But SP500 $SKEW was moderate at 124.14 +2.06% #Cryptos crashed. #Markets
  • That was UGLY! https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p30172872605 Substituting DJ Utilities for DJ Transports. Utilities have been better, but not if one added to them in April. https://stockcharts.com/…
  • @hank, VIX is based on all near-term options (calls and puts). You may be thinking of SKEW (that is in the bottom panels of my previous chart link and is EOD only) that is based on relative pricing of puts vs calls - it is high when puts are more …
  • VIX touched 39 in Jan, 38 in Feb. So, 40 is just a number. Nasdaq 100 VXN touched 40 today (YTD hi was 44). https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;id=p67687948034