Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
This was speculated here, https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/188477/#Comment_188477
No Cabinet Secretary would let the first-pal dictate how to run his/her Department.
The DOGE kids may have continue to have their mischi…
Be careful with the CEF leverage reported that is debt/Total Assets.
CEF holders experience the effect of much higher leverage that is debt/Net Assets.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/471/thread
Europe has been in/near-recession. Stocks are anticipating better times ahead. The best time to buy stocks (anywhere) is during the recession when the worst seems over.
The US is already at a super-perfection high level. Make allocation adjustments…
M* looks at structural differences between SPY (UIT) and VOO. SSGA later introduced SPLG that is similar to VOO and IVV in structure.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/spy-vs-voo-which-sp-500-etf-should-you-own
CME FedWatch is now showing 3 cuts in 2025. There are based on fed fund futures trading data, not surveys.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
There are data on "domestic" contents for US cars. Recall that EV credits used "domestic" content, so, it isn't a stretch to use them for tax deduction. Of course, the first-pal Musk would benefit the most.
In the published reports so far, "domesti…
Deal involves BlackRock/BLK (Larry Fink; NYC), BLK subsidiary GIP (Global Infrastructure Partners; NYC-based private-equity) that it bought just last year and GIP portfolio company TIL (Terminal Invest Ltd; Switzerland-based). So, it looks like Larr…
On ambulances, our local community now bills $3,400+ & $15/mile for 911 ambulance calls. It says that payments are not required from residents, but it wants insurance info to collect some money from insurance.
New tariffs on China are in addition to the existing tariffs.
If trade war escalates, China may also put tariffs in rare-earths EXPORTS, besides restricting exports.
Treasury is definitely part of the Executive branch, under the Treasury Secretary who reports to the President. It's the Fed that has been independent in the recent times. In any federal department, all it takes now is for the DODGE Kids to holler f…
Publishing academic articles in conference proceedings or journals is not too difficult, nor is trying to publish a book (forget about making money on them), but try publishing Letters to the Editors - that's TOUGH ! And when they do publish, they t…
Here is how gold is reacting. Lot of gold is being shifted from London to NYC ahead of possible tariffs that may also apply to the import of gold. London standard is 400 oz, but the US Comex standard is kilogram bars (kilo-bars; 32.151 troy oz), so …
@Sven, Atlanta Fed GDPNow provides a real-time estimate of the GDP. Normally, 2025/Q1 GDP would be released few weeks after the quarter-end, initial reading and then subsequent revisions - so, Spring/Summer.
But it's concerning that Atlanta Fed's a…
Thing to remember about securitized debt is that there are only 2 genuine AAA credits in the US - JNJ and MSFT, but thousands (millions?) of AAA securitized credits.
US Treasury are rated AA+ by S&P and Fitch, Aaa by Moody's (that may also chan…
Add CLOs too.
Noted in Barron's - Economy:
Atlanta Fed GDPNow is projecting economic contraction for 2025/Q1 of -1.5% (real) vs +2.3% previously, while Piper Sandler switched to -2% from +2% previously.
From website info, QDI for 2024:
SPY 100% (UIT, so cannot use many strategies)
ETFs can use strategies such as using futures to manage cash flows, securities lending, and that can lead to < 100% QDI.
SPLG 88.04% (calculated) (also by SSGA)
IVV 8…
Barron's has also raised concerns, https://www.barrons.com/articles/social-security-checks-doge-cuts-musk-0862aa39?mod=past_editions
My summary for those who cannot access Barron's article (LINK):
"RETIREMENT. DOGE is now going after the SSA. The …
These are annual fund family rankings that Barron's has published for years. These are based on asset-weighted fund family performances over multiple timeframes - but the story lead is always with annual rankings.
So, one wouldn't expect, say, a b…
That will make it easier for the Fed and the OCC to approve Capital One/COF and Discover/DFS acquisition/merger if the DOJ doesn't object.
I have COF accounts and I wasn't happy with the practices of COF. It introduced new types of a/c with higher …
AAII Sentiment is contrarian for the stock market, so don't sell when Bull-Bear Spread is very low.
However, poor sentiment may hurt consumer spending, and the Fed watches UM Sentiment that hit a low in 2022 and was rebounding until recently.
https…
I think Government Agencies count too, but not repos. Strange that Agency + Treasury add up to Repos.
Will check from Schwab site.
Edit/Add. Schwab 2024 Supplemental Info shows 33.33%
https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/resource/2024-supplementary…
Brokerage Consolidated 1099 may include Supplemental Info (not sent to IRS) that has all transactions for the year. Schwab includes it in its paper mailing, but I have to download it at Fido.
VWELX inception is 1929, DODBX 1931, FPURX 1947. These aren't funds-of-funds, but allocation/hybrid stock-bond funds. Generally, firms' equity groups handle stock portion, fixed-income groups the bond portion. Funds-of-funds formally evolved much la…
It has been in the news that DOGE IT kids were confused.
SSA may track beneficiary benefits under the original recipient's DOB, so that could be 100+.
Some SSA systems use COBOL programming (an ealy language for business programming) & unknown…
SSA WEP & GPO related extra payments have started for simple cases that can be handled with automation. Complicated cases will be addressed later. SSA says to wait until April to inquire about the status.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/social-securi…
X/Twitter post shoes near miss at Chicago Midway. Pilot of the plane landing had a great presence of mind when he saw a smaller jet suddenly crossing the runway just ahead.
https://x.com/AirportWebcams/status/1894434106122899497/video/1
DODBX used to be among the very aggressive allocation funds. But a few years ago, it started a small hedging program to tame its volatility (5% nominal hedge via derivative or shorting). There was some related news then of the uniqueness of doing th…
Franklin crypto ETFs start with EZ...
So, EZBC for Bitcoin and EZET for Ether make sense.
For multi-crypto etf (now only 2, 82% Bitcoin and 18% Ether), EZCZ could make sense, but "CZ" in cryptos is a recognized personality. So, Franklin became creat…
Funds of funds have top level ER and also the ER from the underlying funds.
VGSTX is unique in that its top level ER is 0%.
Funds/ETFs of CEFs have high ERs because CEFs themselves have high ERs due to leverage. For example, PCEF has top level ER of…
@Mark, most bank preferred are noncumulative so that those can be counted as bank capital. Add to that that most preferred are bank preferreds.
Beware that preferred "stocks" are really debt of very long or indefinite maturities. The name "preferre…
DOGE kids probably need lessons in personal finance and Social Security system before crying (the fraud) wolf.
Lot of sensational reporting in this (open) article.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14407481/michelle-king-social-security-resi…
I subscribe to USPS Informed Delivery. I get an email each day indicating the incoming mail. Every month, a few pieces of mail are missed but they eventually show up. I suppose those were misdelivered and if the recipient put it back for remailing, …
I have followed the activities of Boaz Weinstein on social-media. I also took a flyer on his etf of CEFs CEFS. It's ER is HIGH even taking into account that the underlying CEFs have high ERs. I think he likes to pocket a lot of money himself and inv…
I think that off-topic posts should be moved to the OFF-TOPIC area - by the OP, and if not, by the site moderators.
At least there is a genuine OFF-TOPIC area at MFO. Many visit that area, but others don't. Posts there don't show up in the main MFO…
There are several ETFs with cash flow related themes - COWZ, COWG (growth), COWS (cash flows), GCOW (dividends).
There are also several shareholder yield* ETFs - SHRY, LYLD (LC), MYLD (SC).
*Dividend yield + buyback yield (need cash flow for both)
