Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@BaluBalu, the MONTHLY fund ASSET data only suggest that there MIGHT be equity fund outflows but other data do indicate outflows from equity and other fund categories, and inflows into m-mkt funds. The long-term asset pattern is that after the %Equi…
Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 6/30/22
There were notable declines in the equity fund allocations. The changes in the totals are based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $30.25 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change is about +/- $302…
BIG surprise this morning is NEGATIVE Q2 GDP! That is 2 quarters of negative GDP now. Atlanta Fed GDPNow has been predicting that for a while.
When Powell was asked yesterday about it, he said that he had no clue about GDP but don't trust 1st repor…
Midwest-based "Trust for Professional Managers" runs several funds subadvised by other advisors. Apparently, the funds run by "famous" Rockefeller & Co. LLC are being shut due to their poor records.
https://docoh.com/company/1141819/trust-for-pr…
FOMC Statement came out & Powell had his say at Q&A. Fed fund futures traders see, as of 7/27/22 EOD, 50-25-25 bps hikes thru December FOMC to 3.25-3.50% level & then the Fed PAUSING. This until the Fed OPEN MOUTH Committee people start …
Notes After Powell’s Press Conference
Fed funds raised by +75 bps (again) to 2.25-2.5%; more hikes, small or large, would be data dependent. Fed average inflation target remains +2%. Reserve balance rate 2.4%. Primary credit rate 2.5%. Balance sheet…
Thermal energy units for natural gas are MMBTU (million BTUs) or MWh.
1 MWh = 3.412 MMBTU
Natural gas futures trade in 10,000 MMBTU units, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.contractSpecs.html
Mini futures trade in 2…
@Gary1952, in SR, the dividends have to be reinvested manually. SR does have dividend and income info and uses it in its charts, returns and other analytics.
M* Portfolio had/has auto-reinvest feature/click, so update there before uploading data t…
@finder, you can buy shorter-term TIPS in the secondary market. Note bid-ask (you buy at ask, sell at bid) and related real-YTM that will cut into inflation-adjustment. You may also have to call the broker to enter the TIPS order and make sure that …
That is what the total return equation shows too. It has many forms but a common form is,
%TR = %Dividend_yield + %Earnings_growth + %Change_in_P/E
The 3rd term is the volatile component in the short-term but its effect becomes small over very lon…
@Observant1, my concern with noninsurance company SVs is different. There are usually no guarantees by any entity. There are also no reserves held by sponsors for any contingencies. Rates offered may also be low. Sponsors just claim to invest cautio…
@Crash, yes, Stock Rover is not user-friendly or intuitive. There are many features with options that appear only on relevant pages, so a steep learning curve. I am still exploring/learning during the 14-day, no-obligation, free trial for its top of…
Stock Rover looks interesting.
Free features https://www.stockrover.com/plans/free/
Subscription pricing & features table https://www.stockrover.com/plans/compare/
Serious portfolio analytics tools may be for Premium (most) or Premium Plus (m…
After a promising initial month, this early-2021 IPO went downhill as the SPAC craze cooled off. "Active" ETF SPXZ had 33% in pre-merger SPACs and 67% in post-merger/IPO companies. Its invested AUM remained tiny.
Tiny ETF with $13 million AUM. But the official reason for closure is that the Transparency Index provider (Transparency Global) is discontinuing index and ARK couldn't find a replacement.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ark-investment-man…
ALL fund notices (changes, new/revised prospectuses, new funds) are filed at SEC/Edgar first. The info eventually is available on fund sites with the delays of up to a few weeks. @TheShadow does a great job of monitoring those in his posts. But Edga…
Rupal Bhansali is the chief value lady at Ariel. https://www.barrons.com/articles/most-influential-women-in-us-finance-rupal-j-bhansali-51646430102?mod=Searchresults
Scott Black is a bottoms-up strategist who builds his own earnings estimates. Whi…
It may be unclear what was meant by "backtracking". When one clicks on pages sequentially, there is a menu bar on the top that indicates path and one can backtrack to any page in the path. That was my "backtracking" reference to Company Search.
I …
@msf, I think that ITM options are auto-exercised at expiry. Only the OTM options expire worthless. The ATM options are tossup - once I got hit by a near ATM option auto-exercise at expiry that became ITM just by a few cents and I mistakenly thought…
Interesting that if one backtracks to general search page from either the new/current or Classic Edgar (and even the link provided by @msf), one gets to the same search page/URL:
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
https://www…
Markets don't move in a straight line. So, yesterday was down (although not that bad) on lot of negative news, but they are happier today. Anyway, mid-June lows stand so far. Charts are from 1/4/22 top - 1st for major indexes, 2nd for some generally…
Fed fund futures market is going haywire showing 80% for 100 bps, followed by 75, 25, 25 to end at 3.75-4.00% in December.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
It has been a pretty long stretch already with poor Sentiment (a contrarian indicator).
Q2 earnings season has bad reports from big banks (JPM, MS, etc).
Then we have 75-100 bps rate hike by the FOMC in about 2 weeks.
Will mid-June market lows ho…
Only taxes withheld (W-2, 1099, etc) are considered evenly applied and one can do over-withholding from paychecks, IRA or pension withdrawals, etc to avoid penalties related to other income. Otherwise, estimated taxes must be paid quarterly on other…
TTM is what someone holding the fund already got. It is past history. You don't get it now or in the future.
Distribution yield (monthly or quarterly payout annualized) is more indicative of what a new buyer may get now or in the near future.
30-d…
For T-Bills, Treasury provides both the discount-from-par rate (normal) and coupon-equivalent rate (hypothetical, if the interest was paid semi-annually).
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily…
TIPS are bonds with inflation-adjustments.
Any bond cashed before maturity will have price determined by the current interest rates. And as TIPS funds hold a variety of TIPS, and many are not held to maturity, so TIPS funds will have rate sensitiv…
OCC is a banking regulator. Federal Reserve is another banking regulator.
FDIC is a deposit insurer.
SEC is securities regulator. It regulated publicly listed securities. Unlisted CITs (in retirement accounts) are regulated by OCC.
CFTC is a comm…
All asset-managers are down sharply since early-November 2021 peak. May be TROW is among the worst because it is more stocks and OEFs oriented (it is trying to diversify and doing other restructuring) - others are more diversified.
https://stockch…
The rule of thumb of 4-5% per holding is for individual stocks.
Most funds are already diversified but some are not. Unusually, the LC-growth index has become nondiversified (see 1st link below). Also, active funds may be concentrated in some areas…
Treasury Direct (TD) has only a virtual keyboard for password entry and you cannot get rid of it. Unusually, the TD passwords are not case-sensitive (most typically are, while usernames are not). TD is just an older and clunky website.
