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yogibearbull

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yogibearbull
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  • David Giroux of PRWCX is only 47! He started with the fund when he was just 31 and for years people said that he was young and inexperienced but he showed them all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_R._Giroux
  • There are many sites for stocks/funds analytics. Poster django posted this from Mitre Media at Big Bang, https://mutualfunds.com/ I have used free Stockcharts for years. Subscription allows more complex analytics and storing tickers but I didn't…
  • He may be on vacation. Barron's new Editor has been doing lots of columnists rotations and Eric Savitz (normally, the Tech columnist) tried his hands on Up and Down Wall Street this week. He noted that this was his 1st time ever. Some columns have…
  • @bee, I modified your PV run also for initial 4% ($4K/yr) level, initial 4% ($4K/yr) inflation-adjusted: Strategy, Ending balance, Notes 4%, $218.731K, Withdrawal amounts variable; details by @bee 4K level, …
  • They still exist. But many posters have departed due to repeated format/platform changes and increasingly user-UNfriendly nature of the M* forums. The M* TIAA forum is the only one going strong. M* DM/PM/Message system has been off for almost a …
  • @BaluBalu, that table was posted within that Twitter link chain.
  • Another 90% down day. Twitter Link
  • Barron's cover story this week is on global water crisis. The US has its own water crisis in Colorado River areas - Lake Mead and Lake Powell are below 30% capacity. Agriculture, semi chips and other production along the River path are affected. htt…
  • Interesting news TODAY, https://www.barrons.com/articles/sec-beijing-audit-china-companies-51661519976?mod=bol-social-tw ".....U.S. and China signed a Statement of Protocol, the Securities and Exchange Commission said on Friday, a first step towar…
  • Iron-condor is a complex options strategy of pairing a call-spread with a put-spread in the hope that the price remains rangebound. I think that oil has too much news and geopolitical (OPEC, Russia-Ukraine war, SPRs) dependence to make any meaning…
    in OIL Comment by yogibearbull August 2022
  • Many Chinese ADRs listed in the US for the expressed purpose of raising funds in the US. Those US listings were their only listings for most as they didn't qualify for listing in HK or China Mainland - this should have been a red flag to begin with.…
  • Daily Treasury rates update at Treasury site after 3:30pm Eastern. There are also live quotes during market hours for IRX, FSV, TNX, TYX at Stockcharts, Yahoo Finance, etc. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/T…
  • Yep, only a CHANGE in exchange rate at maturity would affect the yield. So the CURRENT rate of 4.4% remains (in Canadian or US money) until the exchange rate changes.
  • TIAA T-REA/QREARX has been slowly changing its property mix. So, the offices are down to 29.6% of properties on 6/30/22 (from 36.6% on 6/30/21) and retail down to 12.3% (vs 16.9%). New purchases have been in apartments, medical offices, storage, ind…
  • Banking in Canada isn't as fragmented as in the US. The Top 100 global bank list has several Canadian banks. Chinese banks dominate. The US banks are there but don't dominate the list. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_banks
  • Energy may have redefined volatility (besides cryptos, of course). XLE was very strong, crashed in June/July, and rebounded now with fury. ALL of its components are again above 200-dMA. If oil remains $90+ (new OPEC-put price?) and crack-spread rema…
    in OIL Comment by yogibearbull August 2022
  • Great Lakes Advisors is owned Wintrust/WTFC, a big Chicago area bank/financial. Apparently, Great Lakes is getting out of the listed fund business - it merged its bond mutual fund into Weitz WCPBX last year and now offloading 3 remaining equity mutu…
  • Sponsored ADRs are backed by the company and the issuing bank. They can trade on exchanges or OTC. Depending on the Level, the SEC compliance varies and the companies can even raise funds. Unsponsored ADRs are NOT backed by companies. They can trad…
  • @Sven, there is something going on there but I don't know what. A full tax-free or partial tax-advantaged swap into BRK would seem like a no brainer. WB is very tight with sharing control or limelight and that may start to bug people too. Abel may h…
  • BRK is really a post-Buffett (91) play - can really go either way. It was also in the news recently that the potential CEO Greg Abel (60) is very light in BRK stock. He had a choice to convert his large stake in the Energy unit into BRK stock (tax…
  • Doesn't matter for an ETN. Remember, ETNs don't hold assets, but are just sponsors' IOUs for payoffs based on benchmark indexes (Barclays in case of CAPD). But why hang around if you have replacement ideas. On the other hand, OEFs/ETFs/CEFs increas…
  • Nobody departed. Co-managers were added to ALL of Rajiv Jain's funds to help him. He is founder & CIO of GQG, so has some other stuff to do too. https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/gqg-bolsters-fund-lineup-with-pm-promotions/a2391684
  • While many bond funds use some derivatives, here were some flags for RPIEX: High cash Low genuine bonds/FI Low duration M* 2.05, YF -0.04 SD OK at 4.4 Top 10 holdings showing several derivative positions. Normally, one has to scroll to the end of p…
  • Non-traditional/global bond fund with lots of futures/derivatives. That is why there is lot of cash. Look beyond how it does daily.
  • See related cautionary articles. Much of the distribution is ROC and these have finite but uncertain termination dates. https://www.simplysafedividends.com/world-of-dividends/posts/1368-royalty-trusts-why-most-dividend-investors-should-avoid-them ht…
  • @yogibearbull : Do you recall why the DROP in price mid June into July ? Thanks for the chart, Derf LNG plant explosion in June in Freeport, TX sharply reduced LNG exports from the US. So, in a strange/counterintuitive twist, the price of the US nat…
  • Natural gas futures (NG) were up. Futures-based ETF UNG was up too. Natural gas in Europe is about 10x the price here, so companies can sell as much natural gas as they can make into LNG and ship. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/…
  • Global power production, Twitter LINK.
  • @hank, you probably meant gold-mining GDX, not gold bullion GLD. https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=GDX&compare=GDXJ,GLD&id=p28896619951
  • Well, the general takeaway is that broad market VG ETFs are fine (SP500, total stock market, etc) but in specialized or illiquid areas (sectors, EMs, bonds, etc), VG ETFs may surprise with unexpected CGs due to their structural tie-ins with VG OEFs.…
  • Markets also cooperated by being mostly in bullish trend leading to fund inflows. Remember, VG has been the king of fund inflows. Flipside of the connection between VG OEFs and ETFs is that when there were large redemptions/outflows in 2020 (and in…
  • @Crash, I extracted only the chart and skipped the rant (-:). Comparing with an earlier chart posted, note that was an ESTIMATE in late-June of what the SPR level may be in October. This new chart is showing the CURRENT SPR level. The remaining dra…
  • Many variations are fund specific. Moderate-allocation (MA) funds may have many moving parts. PRWCX isn't really a moderate-allocation funds (despite its classification as such my M* and others). It is capital-appreciation and has more of HY (65.19…
  • US SPR status update from Twitter.
  • While there are formal definitions for allocation funds, my definition is any mix of stocks, bonds and alternatives. So, that is target-risk funds (static/strategic allocations CA, MA, AA, WA/IB), tactical allocation (TAA with variable allocations),…
  • @crash, I think that single-stock/bond ETFs are the latest bad idea from the ETF industry. It is known to throw stuff on the wall and see what sticks. But the ETF wrapper does allow cash/non-margin a/c to use leverage and do shorting, not that tho…
  • There can be 2 sources of errors. (i) Mutual fund can adjust distributions including reclassifications of income, ST-CG, LT-CG, ROC. (ii) Broker can adjust cost-basis or reclassify ST/LT CGs or adjust wash-sales. I investigated in order to determin…
  • MA is investigating single-stick ETFs. https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/08/18/galvin-launches-sweep-of-single-stock-etfs/
  • Burry's portfolio may be $150-160 million. But he is mostly on the short side, is public about his moves and has made some good/lucky calls, so he makes news. In fact, Twitter is live with the news that he has liquidated 98% of his portfolio and thi…
  • There are now several 0 ER funds/classes. Examples - Fido, TIAA (for advisors) etc.