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September CPI was +8.2% y-o-y
Updating calculations for unadjusted CPI,
New fixed rate (November 1) 0-1.5% est
New I-Bond Rate (November 1) 6.47-8.02% est
@johnN, September CPI +8.1% y-o-y is the consensus. I used it to estimate the new I-Bond rate (November 1) in this link that I will update tomorrow. BTW, est for Social Security COLA will also firm up tomorrow.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/dis…
@hank, as noted by @LewisBraham article in Barron's Funds Quarterly, the some of the outflows from active funds are going into unlisted CITs, index mutual funds/OEFs and (indexed) ETFs. Among the large money managers, Price has missed 2 revolutions …
TROW is down sharply on declining AUM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-rowe-price-group-reports-123000033.html
"T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ-GS: TROW), today reported preliminary month-end assets under management of $1.23 trillion as of Septem…
Good point about payments (none or nominal?) for benchmarks for active funds. For index funds (OEFs, ETFs) & naming, they do have to pay.
Another difference is that MSCI has been slower to raise China weightings (vs FTSE).
Vanguard had a dispu…
Interesting.
Remember 2012? That is when Vanguard dumped MSCI as indexer for almost a couple of dozen Vanguard funds because MSCI got too greedy (after its spinoff from MS in 2007) and forgot how Vanguard had nurtured it when it was developing with…
Interval-funds are newer types of funds with some features of CEFs, OEFs, ETFs. Note para 3 of the filing for limitations of interval-funds:
"Interval Fund. The Fund is designed primarily for long-term investors and not as a trading vehicle. The Fu…
@BenWP, I suspect that some bank a/c# or routing# info got messed up in your or TD data entry. One suggestion is to just write a letter to TD explaining the issue, provide the required info again and ask TD to try again. Worth a try before giving up.
Foreign central bank holdings of Treasuries at the US Fed are down sharply as the dollar has become strong (there is an inverse relationship). For foreign central banks, these are savings/reserves to be used in difficult times. They are using these …
@BenWP, coincidently, my TD account link is with Schwab Bank and I haven't had any issues so far.
My TD account (Trust) did take about 6 weeks to activate after sending the requested Signature Guarantee paper.
This may help,
https://treasurydirec…
While not mentioned in this Barron's issue or supplement, one can use multi-asset funds that mix stocks-bonds-alternatives. Examples are FMSDX, VPGDX, etc. They have also been hit but the hit has been several % points less than conventional moderate…
I-Bonds rate is still 9.62% for 6 mo if purchased by 10/31/22. Annual limit is $10K/person.
New rates on 11/1/22 should be lower. Variable inflation has moderated but fixed rate may be raised above 0%. Estimates are 6.278-7.825%.
https://ybbperson…
Sudden gates and/or redemption fees at prime m-mkt funds are more probable than outright failures.
With government m-mkt funds, that risk is minimal (but not 0).
If you think about it, mutual funds have no guarantees. The whole system is based on …
One of the affected persons by the TBO scam can set up a semi-private site elsewhere. There may be a steep learning curve involved in doing so. One example is ProBoards where site access can be controlled (fully public, public-private, fully private…
@balyan55 and others, if you get calls from a site just because you searched for them on the web, those can be traps. Don't slide from one scam into another.
@Gary1952, great point. The brokered CD market is illiquid and the broker would try to sell it on best-effort basis.
So, best to hold brokered CDs to maturity. If there is any doubt about that, stick with liquid T-Bills/Notes.
Fed fund futures market-based projections are 75-50-25-pause bps-hikes at Nov, Dec, Feb-later FOMC with terminal rate of 4.50-4.75% (current 3.00-3.25%). Remember that the Fed controls the ST rate only. The US/global factors determine IT/LT rates.
h…
Deferred-income-annuities (DIAs) from taxable accounts were around for a long time. But there were some complicated issues with related RMDs for buying them from tax-deferred accounts and the IRS clarified those during 2012-14 (initial guidelines 02…
@Baseball_Fan, Wade Pfau, Princeton PhD, is professor at American College
https://www.theamericancollege.edu/our-people/faculty/wade-pfau
American College offers degree and certification programs for financial professionals. It is tied to financial…
Stockcharts has lots of useful TA data. There are also helpful links under Chart School. Investors may use technical analysis (easy to pickup, so may be abused, misused), fundamental analysis (harder to learn; may require business school degrees), o…
Current AUMs from M*:
LOMMX $282.4 million
CGMFX $341.9 million
CGMRX $347.8 million
Total for 3 CGM funds $972.1 million
And nobody wanted to buy them?
I think that there is some story or strategy behind this.
Looking at the websites of InvestorPlace and its Nasdaq-listed parent MarketWise/MKTW, they now are more into general market and lifestyle advisories, stock and option trading, cryptos; etc. Styles of Fidelity and Vanguard fund newsletters don’t fit…
Medicare IRMAA can be appealed for some reasons, but a sudden gain/profit isn't one of them.
https://www.hhs.gov/about/agencies/omha/the-appeals-process/part-b-premium-appeals/index.html
https://www.ssa.gov/forms/ssa-44-ext.pdf
According to Walter Deemer's feed on Twitter (LINK),
Monday was 89% up-volume day (barely missed being 90% up-volume day)
Tuesday was 95% up-volume day.
2 VERY strong successive up-days. Rare.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-greg-abel-stock-warren-buffett-51664834938?mod=bol-social-tw
"Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B +2.16% Vice Chairman Greg Abel, the likely successor to CEO Warren Buffett, bought about $68 million of the …
This fantastic ride for I-Bonds started on Nov 1, 2021. There have been skeptics all along - from "too good to be true", to "this cannot last", to "they may be bad few years from now", to "it is only for $10K/$20K/$25K", etc.
Well, enjoy the ride,…
$VIX was basically flat on Thursday and Friday. VIX watchers are puzzled that it hasn't reached the high levels of previous market lows. So, some are saying that this isn't the market low yet, but other say it may be different this time, see next.
h…
@bee, TIAA & CREF use 4% AIR (Assumed Interest Rate) to calculate lifetime payouts for VA units. Other insurance co may use 2.5% or 3% AIR. This is not related to SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate).
AIR becomes the hurdle rate. If the returns exceed A…
Interval-funds is newer structure with some elements of CEFs, OEFs, ETFs. There are several dozen such funds now. Barron's has a weekly list of these. They are unlisted (on exchanges), so must be bought through brokerages/advisors; there may be accr…
@msf, thanks for the details on I-Bonds.
I didn't check beyond the history published by Treasury Direct. One can see there also that for a while the limits applied separately to paper and electronic Savings Bonds but those were unified later.
My T…
XARKX prospectus filing, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1905088/000110465922091469/tm2215312-7_424b3.htm
Note interval-fund structure with optional quarterly redemption opportunities for 5-25% of shares. Secondary markets are not expected …
It would be a good idea when higher I-Bond limits are approved by the Congress. It may take a while.
https://twitter.com/YBB_Finance/status/1574870529198137367
Normal annual purchase limits (without special tricks) for individuals for #IBonds has v…
@Devo has mentioned I-Bonds.
Those who haven't yet used up their personal limit of $10K/yr/person have only this month until 10/31/22 (Monday) to lock in 9.62% for 6 months from the purchase date.
I-Bond rates change on May 1 and November 1, but …
Just because bond fund NAVs decline, their $distributions don't go up, although the 30-day SEC yield and YTM will go up.
However, as bond funds replace maturing bonds with higher coupon bonds, or trade from lower coupon to higher coupon bonds, $dis…
