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I remember those headlines. The headlines may be the worst when 10-yr rolling-returns are poor, but that would have been a great time to buy, or at least to hold on (for those who stuck with it up to that point. Below is a weekly StockCharts 1990- …
There are posts on TwitterLINK that FCNCA got a really FANTASTIC deal - see image below with annotations on red by a poster. May be the FDIC just got frustrated and was in a hurry do this deal.
There are reports on Twitter LINK that CNBC has removed the 5-yr CDS data for several major US banks. These had tickers of "nameCD5 (for 5-yr CDS)", so for JPM, that would be JPMCD5 (now 0 results).
The apparent rationale seemed to be that this so…
@Derf, this concept of forward rates works best for 2 bonds with the maturity of the 2nd just the double of the 1st. Otherwise, there are too many variables and assumptions. So, it will work for 2-yr Note (3.76%) and 4-yr Note (3.40% ?).
So, the ke…
@Derf, there is this interesting calculation for whether to
(i) buy 1-yr around 4.32% now and roll into another 1-yr on maturity (03/2024)
vs
(ii) buy 2-yr around 3.76% now.
You will be AHEAD with (i) if the rate for 1-yr in 03/2024 is MORE than…
If you read the panic-news, Schwab/SCHW 5-yr CDS have about "tripled" to 120s (from 40s), but that (absolute) level still isn't concerning. Credit Suisse CDS near the end were 300s (of course, they also crossed 120s at some point). These are in bps.…
There are some other value-oriented ETFs that are also transparent (w/daily disclosures). Thinking is that this category has been unpopular for a long time and the dangers of frontrunning may be small.
The filing indicated only annual distributions…
Kilbride may be around 60 - not that old. He has high positions at Wellington Management (WM) - Partner, Managing Director (MD), portfolio manager. Vanguard has setup a smaller, similar and more concentrated fund for him - VADGX, AUM $318.1 million,…
Look at Fido experience that has active ETF cousins for several of its famous funds (stock & bond). So, FMAG (ER 0.59%), the ETF cousin of storied FMAGX (note ticker similarity), has only $42 million since 2/2/21 inception.
Most of the ETF tra…
From filing to launch could be a few months. These look to be straightforward active and TRANSPARENT ETFs, so nothing controversial about tricky ways to be nontransparent or semi-transparent.
There is a filing for several active Price ETFs, including TCAF (although 80%+ equity; ER 0.31% only) to be managed by Giroux (PRWCX). Filing also includes several other active ETFs.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/0001741773…
Notes from FOMC Statement & Powell's Presser
Fed fund rate hike of +25 bps to 4.75-5.00%; bank reserve balance rate 4.9%; discount rate 5%. Guidance changed from "ongoing rate increases" to "tightening as necessary" based on future data and eve…
If the objective is to keep up with inflation, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity will do that. Longer-term TIPS will too, but it may be harder to hold them maturity. TIPS funds on the other hand are affected by duration and non-maturity; they are also requ…
AS reported in Barron's this week (my summary below, LINK), JPM is going into China,
"Mary ERDOES, JPM. RISK management in banking is essential. 3 recent bank failures (Silvergate, SVB, Signature) were partly from weaknesses in risk controls. The b…
See pg 13, https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/743367/000155837023003742/bhb-20221231x10k.htm
It is clear to me. May be it didn't fit Editor's narrative of "high" uninsured deposits.
So, (328.5 + 13.8)/3,076.625 = 0.1113, or 11.13%
…
CME FedWatch THIS evening is showing these rate changes and probabilities (see image) for the next several FOMCs:
+25--+25--hold--cut--cut--, etc.
We will know for sure TOMORROW.
Well, I did do some digging yesterday but came out empty. There was no news or Edgar/SEC filing (only preliminary earnings 2/27/23 and annual report 3/14/23), so I didn't post.
Those meetings could just be with analyst(s) covering BHB.
Well, JPM has but people say that's "because" it may hold some AT1/CoCo bonds itself. Of course, we have the hindsight-wiser Gundlach/DL saying that investors should have known (about how the Swiss FINMA would act?).
https://twitter.com/jeuasommenul…
I don't think that AT1 or CoCo bonds are approved by the SEC for the US market. Any regular Credit Suisse bonds would now be the responsibility of UBS. Of course, selling them before maturity could be a problem right now.
A guy on the Fidelity Inve…
I am not sure that lawsuits will help. These bonds did have a clause that the Swiss FINMA could declare a credit-event and that decision will be irrevocable. But nobody thought that FINMA will do that for political convenience. I have read that Swis…
Swiss regulator FINMA declared a credit-event during the negotiations to trigger default of AT1/CoCo (contingent-convertible) bonds that are AHEAD of common stock in the capital structure. The rescue left some residual equity.
That of course, caus…
Polen has Polen Global Growth PGIRX, Polen Global SMID Growth PBGIX, Polen Global EM Growth PGEIX.
Is it dropping "Global" from other funds too, or just from the redundant "Global EM" - what else EM can be? Foreign EM is also redundant; Domestic EM…
There are a variety of stable-value (SV) funds. I don't see any connection to ETNs.
The SVs from insurance companies may be supported directly by their general accounts, or they may be portfolios of bonds at 3rd parties with an insurance wrapper.
…
One just has to be careful. The ETFs and ETNs are often lumped into ETPs. Most ETNs have "ETN" in their names, so it is hard to miss. But if one isn't careful, one could buy an ETN unintentionally.
A good source for ETFs/ETNs is ETFdb.com . On this…
@bilvihur, you are overlooking main point by @msf that so long as you are working, your 401k won't require RMDs. But as soon as you shift some (half?), the RMDs will kick in within the T-IRA. That may be a bigger tax hit than parts of $900 that you …
An interesting thread, Twitter LINK.
European AT1/CoCo market has sold off and may have been compromised despite supportive statements from the ECB, EBA (European Banking Authority), SRB (Single Resolution Board) that what happened to (Swiss) Credi…
Not all plans allow "in-service rollovers". I see that you are at RMD+ age and still working.
If your company does, then yes, you can roll into T-IRA and invest in anything.
You may hear about the controversial wipeout of $17 billion CS AT1/CoCo bonds.
These (AT1) bonds are contingent-convertible (CoCo) bonds common in Europe and Asia. In good times, these convert into equity. But in bad times, forced conversion can be…
Powell could do +25 bps with future guidance for pause or slowing pace. The CME FedWatch is showing +25 bps--hold--cut--cut....for the next few FOMC meetings.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Twitter has been speculating big news ahead of US futures opening this evening - in about 10 min.
So, we got BIG news from Europe on UBS taking over CS.
NO big news in the US except rumors (including Buffett). We only have 2 releases TODAY by the …
I am watching both bank KBE and regional bank KRE. But their Covid 2020 lows are still -42% down from here. So, the banking selloff has been sharp but it doesn't seem to be a washout. I may not wait for -42% down, but it seems too early to bottom fi…
@LewisBraham, when Dutch giant ING got into trouble during the GFC 2008-09 and had to be rescued by the Dutch government, one condition was to refocus on core businesses. It ended up divesting its US operations (noncore):
ING insurance and asset ma…
Lot of Schwab Bank deposits are from Schwab Robo-Advisors that keep high % allocation in cash but robo-holders don't control those bank deposits directly. Schwab was also fined on this but it continues this practice with just a tweak in its disclosu…
