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Wholesale inflation PPI came in hotter than expected. See that "wrong way" tick? In general, what happens for wholesale inflation eventually trickles down to retail inflation CPI (and Fed's favorite PCE). On this unexpected bad news, futures turned …
BTW, Apple/AAPL doesn't seem to be a holding of Schwab ETF SCHD. So, don't buy it for checks from Tim Cook. https://www.schwab.wallst.com/Prospect/Research/etfs/portfolio.asp?symbol=schd
The bull case for TIPS goes something like this. Max real rate ranges have been,
5-Yr TIPS -1.87% to +4.24%, current +1.49%
10-Yr TIPS -1.10% to +3.06%, current +1.41%
So, IF one assumes that in the current environment the real rates are peaking …
M* Instant X-Ray with a portfolio of 50% SCHD, 50% SPY will also show overlaps/nonoverlaps for larger holdings. https://www.morningstar.com/instant-x-ray
https://i.ibb.co/VtFSfBv/Screenshot-2023-02-15-10-02-14.png
@Crash. I have been favoring only 5-yr TIPS, not TIPS funds (ST or IT/LT). The idea is to capture CPI approximately, see chart below - I don't know why the StockCharts hasn't updated CPI for January in comparison charts (it has in separate CPI chart…
Thanks for the FinViz VIX chart. But mine from StockCharts looks different. It shows 1/24/22 high of 38.94.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p89899821759
SP500 daily volatility is +/- 1% (VIX/19). IMO, people have just become comfortable with high VIX. It peaked at 39 in early-2022 but crash-watchers have been looking for VIX of 45. It may not reach that level in this cycle.
BAD news!
VPGDX has already gone through major changes. I thought that its current multi-sector form was a stable competitor to Fido multi-sector FMSDX. But VG keeps playing games with this $1.2 billion AUM fund. I recently went into it in a big wa…
I-Bonds use 6-mo change in unadjusted CPI for their May 1 & November 1 announcements. That is definitely collapsing on May 1.
TIPS use monthly CPI changes with 2-mo lag. How is that looking now?
I am definitely skipping I-Bonds, but I am stil…
Global hybrids are difficult to find. Two good ones are SGENX & TIBAX, both no-load/NTF at Fido & Schwab. TIBAX also has an unleveraged CEF cousin TBLD that can be bought anywhere.
BTW, Fido used to have a global-balanced fund but it was di…
Same manager since 1997.
Gold-mining has been terrible for B&H and being top performer in category for 3,5,10 years doesn't mean much. * ratings are based on past performance only within the category, and overall * rating is a weighted average …
@catch22, thanks for showing full StockCharts search on "VIX".
So, I NOW see Stockcharts symbols for VIX for 9 days $VXST, 3 months $VXV, 6 months $VXMT (none for 1 year).
StockCharts also has MORE data. Here are the charts for $VXV and $VIX, and …
There are already VIX for 9 days (VIX9D), 3 mo (VIX3M), 6 mo (VIX6M), 1 yr (VIX1Y).
Just as the regular VIX (for 30 days) uses SP500 options that bracket 30 days +/- 7 days, VIX9D brackets 9 days options (unclear by how many days +/-).
These symb…
Article has a Good explanation of 0DTE; there are 1DTE,..., NDTE, etc too. There is nothing new here as all options near expiry will go through these phases. But no-commission trading makes this trading possible for retail (in the old days, $5-10 co…
I haven't done full research on it (yet), but I don't think that the term flash-crash or mini-crash was around in 1987. These last from minutes to hours on a single-day. The Big one was in May 2010 and there were several subsequently too. Then, the …
SP500 4,100 was an important level. Market has to be comfortable there, and so far in Feb, all closings have been above 4,100 (although it has been breached intraday). Then, the next hill is at 4,325.
You may have seen nearby that the AAII Bull-Bea…
Powell has said that he watches 3m-18m spread (close is readily available 3m-2y spread) & those have been clearly inverted since December 2022.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST2Y-$UST3M&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&am…
I have AARP membership.
BTW, if one still has AOL, one can get AARP membership free as a benefit.
I also have AARP/Hartford/Trumbull auto insurance and being AARP member is a condition. I hear that after the initial signup, Hartford doesn't reall…
TIAA annuities within 403b are low-cost. For example, CREF Stock VA has all-in ER of 0.23% only (AUM $112 billion). Post-retirement, money can remain as-is in TIAA Traditional (like SV; current crediting rate 6.00%) and TIAA and CREF VAs, but can al…
@msf, K&LGates link is a good in that it collects various IRA related changes by Secure 2.0.
I think that QLAC, being DIA from retirement accounts, solved one RMD issue in 2014; prior to 2014 change, the DIAs from retirement accounts involved c…
Be aware that Powell used the term disinflation for the first time (for him) at the post-FOMC presser. It created some confusion in the markets and today he clarified that it also means lessening of inflation. This is what happens when people watch …
Also, when you hear Fed's open-mouths in the news, keep in mind that Bostic (Atlanta Fed) is NOT a voting member of FOMC in 2023.
Voting Fed Prez in 2023 are Goolsbee (Chicago), Harker (Philly), Kashkari (Minneapolis), Logan (Dallas). There is an an…
I have also read that Powell was added LATE to the agenda of Economic Club in DC, and the purpose is to CORRCT some impressions - intended or unintended - at the last FOMC presser. So, the above + his WRONG comment about financial conditions that he…
@TheShadow, thanks for DoubleLine finds.
Filing shows 2 ETFs - DL CRE ETF (debt) and DL Mortgage ETF (also debt). Both are active and with some leverage (unspecified % or limits, but "borrowing" is mentioned a lot). IMO, DL CRE ETF name may be mis…
Real estate funds have been mentioned recently in monthly commentaries by @Devo, @msf, @David_Snowball, and possibly others.
@Mark, additional amounts are optional. But they are allowed monthly.
This should be treated as news of interest to some.
…
Well, Barron's had to compromise, now being "online". It now wants to be relevant DURING the week and also have BREAKING news online. The old way was to just wait for the weekend issue.
This went through an earlier iteration (that I hated) when Bar…
@hank, Weekend Barron's articles start trickling in at Barron's Online about midweek. Most of them are available Friday when I start my Summaries. I guess based on categories and authors. The current Editor tends to rotate authors and also has multi…
Top 5 holdings of BRK are AAPL, BAC, AXP, KHC, OXY. So, the stock portfolio should be up YTD based on StockCharts. But BRK is also a huge operational company and that part is cyclical, and as @Devo mentioned, there may be other market actors. This b…
Using M* standard deviation (SD) data,
Gold-bullion GLD SD = 15.12
Silver-bullion SLV SD = 36.39
So, SLV is 2.4x more volatile than GLD.
As silver is used both as industrial and precious metal, it has more cyclicality tied to economy. This is a…
One clarification pending is what happens if the beneficiary is changed?
IMO, this may mess up possible transfers or 15 yr clock.
Otherwise, transfer $35K to beneficiary1, change beneficiary and transfer $35K to beneficiary2, rinse & repeat. …
Why rush to empty 529? Wait until the daughter graduates and has job. Lifetime limit on these 529 to R-IRA transfers is $35K and regular annual limits for IRAs apply.
