Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Some are looking for crash-level VIX of 45-80 before the bear market ends. IMO, VIX remains elevated; it was elevated throughout 2022.
VIX of 21.13 means daily SP500 volatility of +/- 1.11% most of the time and +/- 2.22% or +/- 3.33% some of the t…
Default is when bills are not paid when due.
Why it occurs doesn't matter - the lack of ability or will or willingness to pay. Technically, there is also a grace period of a few days or weeks, but in case of debt-ceiling crisis, the max damage may…
Wolf Street has a very negative piece on Silvergate/SI - eroding capital base; huge withdrawals; regulators may be watching.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/05/crypto-bank-silvergate-details-its-own-implosion-much-of-its-equity-capital-wiped-out-im-w…
Direct link https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312523002397/d416122d497.htm
M* had mentioned that co-lead-manager Yu Zhang was responsible for the recent (5+ years) shift in MAPIX from old current-dividend emphasis to also includ…
ROC(250) = Rate of Change over 250 trading days, so that is close to 12-mo. If you prefer 252 or some other number, you can adjust.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:rate_of_change_roc_and_momentum
Tax-managed VTMFX has 50-50.
But other Vanguard allocation/balanced funds are either 60-40 or 40-60. For years, people have talked about a 50-50 mix of VWELX and VWINX to produce 50-50 allocation.
Wellington managed HBLAX is close to 50-50.
Bad news for Celsius Earn Program (cryptos) customers. Bankruptcy judge cites fine print in his ruling that customer assets under the Program belonged to Celsius, not customers. This will put a new focus on brokerage TOS (terms of service) in crypto…
@sma3, older TIPS will have accumulated inflation adjustments in principal. Pay attention to YTM (for real-yield). Short-term TIPS look more confusing due to the current inflation reflected in quotes.
TIPS at auctions don't have these issues, but …
This has to be tested for fund families.
My experience is that Fido and Vanguard don't bother much with fund minimum so long as one has a large account. And they may first give a warning to bring up the amount to fund minimum.
Specifically, Vangua…
Liability matching is possible. But mortgages are at spreads over Treasuries or inv-grade bonds, so it may require MORE than the mortgage balance to cover mortgage payments. If one has that much liquid money around, then why get the mortgage? Just p…
@Sven, I-Bonds and ST-TIPS (held to maturity) are for safer money. They try to pick up CPI + a few bps (40 bps for I-Bonds, 165 bps for 5-yr TIPS, 1/3/23).
LT-TIPS are for speculative money. I doubt that investors buying 20 or 30 year TIPS will hol…
TIPSwatch has its 2023 annual guide to I-Bonds. They are compared with current alternatives - TIPS and CDs. Conclusion is less clear cut for I-Bonds in 2023 than it was in 2022.
https://tipswatch.com/2023/01/03/i-bonds-a-not-so-simple-buying-guide-f…
I am now K-1 free!
But until a couple of years ago, I used the PWC site (registration required) that consolidates reporting of most K-1s. Typically, they start to become available in mid/late-March.
https://www.taxpackagesupport.com/
UC invests $4 billion in a special class I of BREIT that will guarantee 11.25%+ return over 6 years. Sort of an expensive financing for BREIT. UC reached out to Blackstone/BX for the deal.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-breit-gets-4-bill…
SR Problems With Yearend CG Distributions (Manual Reinvestments)
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/318/stock-rover-sr?page=1&scrollTo=887
@Sven, as noted before, TIPS held to maturity capture initial real rate plus CPI, but TIPS funds are affected by both rates and duration. I have mentioned 5-yr TIPS often as it is easier to hold them to maturity; individual TIPS will also see fluctu…
Recall that DODBX has changed investment policy recently to include some shorting. Its idea was to tame its high volatility. This is quite unusual for allocation/balanced funds, and DODBX may have had beginner's luck just as this bear was arriving. …
The IMF and World Bank provide help to many developing countries through grants and loans. Some of their annual funding comes from developed countries. Both institutions are in unique positions to have global economic views that shouldn't be ignored.
LB's article in Barron's looks at pros and cons of FR/BL.
Keep in mind that FR/BL are a subclass of HY and their rate resetting mechanism works fine when rates are rising or stable. If rates start declining, or economy finds itself in recession, th…
My plan WAS to buy I-Bonds in 2023, but stingy rate on 11/1/22 changed that. IMO, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity are better (1.66% real rate plus CPI) OR I may just feed the bear a bit (-:).
2022 - When Stock-Bond Allocations Failed to Protect
The yearend data are in. It was a terrible year for both stocks (the worst since 2008 GFC) and bonds (the worst ever), and so for the 60-40 hybrids (the worst since 1937; #3 worst since the 1928 …
@carew388, CEFConnect Screener shows that 51 out of 447 CEFs are unleveraged. So, most are leveraged. Bond CEFs are more highly leveraged than equity/hybrid CEFs.
https://www.cefconnect.com/
@sma3, note that @Sven was talking about both VWINX and VWELX. Only VWELX has modified its equity orientation from value to blend/growth. I haven't heard any such recent thing for VWINX (of course, it has changed gradually over the years).
TIAA Traditional Rates, January 1, 2023
Restricted RC 6.50%, RA 6.25%
Flexible RCP 5.75%, SRA 5.50%, Newer IRAs 3.65%
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/142/tiaa-traditional-rates-monthly?page=2&scrollTo=880
TSP G Fund hasn't updat…
I still like VWINX/ VWIAX as a plain vanilla mix of div-stocks + inv-grade (mostly corporates). It is offered at ER of 23/16 bps only.
But I have shifted quite a bit into VG multi-asset VPGDX (similar to Fido FMSDX; allocation comparable to VWELX/ …
While tech/XLK is #3 from the last, look at what is now hidden in consumer-discretionary/XLY (33.67% in AMZN, TSLA) and communications-telecom/XLC (42.41% in META, GOOGL/GOOG, NFLX) ?
So, ALL of the original FANG are now not even in the tech.
Inve…
Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 11/30/22
There were notable increases in the allocations to stock funds, and declines in those for bond and m-mkt funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $28.17 trillion in the previous m…
Secure 2.0 (2022) has important changes for 529s.
Excess funds from 529s can go to Roth IRAs of the beneficiary (2024- ). Taxes and penalties won't apply to these rollovers. Several limitations apply: 529 must be 15+ years old; only the money contr…
Elon Musk (EM) "premium" has turned into a EM "discount". His Twitter actions/antics are frustrating even his fans. I thought of posting such on Twitter, but I doubt that it will stay - so much for EM "free" speech.
June 2022 was the turning point for inflation indexes (CPI, PCE, etc). Their levels are still high and who knows when the Fed will be satisfied? It keeps harping on +2% average inflation but that may be a mirage.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g…
This is Ireland's national State/savings bond program. See Table 1 under each category. So, 10% for 10 years means euro 1,000 principal bond will mature to euro 1,100. TR is cumulative (typical default), not annualized. There is some bonus too, but …
Depending on the setting, free PV data can be to the year-end (default) or month-end. Paid version has data to the last day.
M* has tabs for Daily, Monthly, Quarterly.
Free StochCharts can provide charts to the last day (default) or week.
Happy holidays!
My arithmetic shows 27/3 = 9. That seems a LOT!! (-:)
Will it be like attending a big conference/convention where one hops in and out of sessions?
As many SC ETFs have growth tilt, this ETFdb list includes names that don't have "growth" in their names.
But one thing to keep in mind is that R2000 and R2000 Growth (IWO) aren't selective indexes, so they include lots of garbage - SCs that don't …
I found this on LTCI premiums from tax-deferred plans from KPMG summary. However, meaning of "high-quality" LTC plan isn't clear, so we have to wait for clarification.
Section 334, Long-term care contracts purchased with retirement plan distributio…
There is a related filing for SEC exemption that has more details but no clear indication of how the liquidation will proceed. It notes that, "The aggregate net asset value of the Fund has fallen from approximately $24 million on December 31, 2021 t…
