Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
MANY years ago, Fido converted most mutual fund a/c to brokerage a/c. But some still exist. Of course, most Fido 401k/403b a/c are mutual fund a/c but some may have brokerage windows.
IMO, the US lawmakers, who grew up in the dollar-reserve-currency environment don't appreciate the global significance of a potential US default, technical or not. There are already serious global concerns on dollar-diplomacy/weaponization and this …
It was in the news a while ago that Moderna and the NIH were in a patent dispute over mRNA technology. Moderna had filed a sole patent for its mRNA vaccine but the NIH protested that it should have been included as co-owner. Moderna let its original…
For any price to stick, actions of competitors will matter. So, what will Pfizer & BioNTech, etc will do? Will they collude & get into antitrust mess?
Look at how Biogen's greed over its first FDA approved Alzheimer drug destroyed it. Medic…
Crypto firm Genesis has filed for bankruptcy. It is part of DCG that also owns the news arm CoinDesk.
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/01/20/genesis-global-files-for-bankruptcy-protection/
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/20/crypto-lender-genesis…
For sovereign ratings, it is the federal debt that matters. FRED has both the absolute
federal debt amounts and as % of GDP. At $31 trillion and 120% of GDP, it is high but not very high. The highest level reached was during the pandemic in 2020.
…
Gates/restricted-redemptions are spreading. After Blackstone BREIT, Starwood SREIT, now is KKR KREST.
@hank, recent posts on this thread have been on gates for nontraded-REITs that started a few months ago. Media posts have been alarmist on this, b…
Details in the DOJ press release within the Yahoo link. I was curious where was the arrest - in Miami. As this had been in the news already, wonder what he was doing in Miami. Several international agencies participated in shutting down Bitzlato cry…
Blackstone/BX CEO Stephen Schwarzman said at WEF, Davos that nontraded-REIT BREIT was overweight in apartments and warehouses, and underweight in malls and offices. Most of its debt had maturity/duration (?) of 6.5 years, so it was less impacted by …
CDS payouts are never quick.
A CDS Special Committee has to determine and declare the default first and then anyone gets paid on CDS.
The idea that some T-Bills CDS may be paid quickly while other T-Notes/Bonds may take a while isn't really correc…
@sven, I-Bond rate on 5/1/23 will be determined by the CPI index change from 09/2022-03/2023. The 3 month change from Sep-Dec so far is near 0% and changes over the next 3 months aren't expected to add much. What you see reported are CPI yoy change …
The $220 billion TSP G Fund (SV) will be called to duty AGAIN. At some point, its daily rollovers will be postponed until the debt-ceiling issue has been dealt with.
The SEC says that it has enough tools to fight crypto abuses. But the problem with the SEC actions is that it chases bad players after the fact. Where was the SEC when "unregistered securities" were being sold?
Alert on #IBonds, 1/12/23
While the current 6.89% rate will apply to I-Bond purchases until 4/28/23 (rate valid for 6 months from the purchase date), the preliminary projections for the next rate on 5/1/13 are for only 0-1%. About the half of the #C…
Jeffrey Hirsch (son of late Yale Hirsch; founder of Stock Trader's Almanac) posted a table at Twitter LINK with data from 1950 on:
SC Rally (late-Dec Santa Claus rally)
FFD (first 5 days of the year)
JB (Jan barometer)
Subsequent
Feb
Last 11 Mo (Fe…
Fido real estate (RE) hybrid FRIFX also has lower volatility than equity RE (VNQ, XLRE, FREL, etc).
Posters with TIAA accounts may have access to QREARX, the TIAA Real Estate Account VA. It has quarterly Liquidity Guarantee by the TIAA, and doesn't…
Silvergate/SI has tapped FHLBanks for billions in advances/loans. The FHLB $s are ahead of EVERYBODY, even the FDIC. This is getting curiouser and curiouser.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/silvergate-capital-got-4-3-bln-loan-from-feds-amid-run-o…
For Blue Chip Growth TRBCX, Price has an ETF cousin TCHP and also a CIT version.
Price ETFs https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/etf
Price CITs (lower-ER; unlisted; regulated by OCC, not SEC) https://www.troweprice.co…
State protections for IRAs vary widely. WA is among the states with strong protections; my state IL too. But there are some states with poor protections (CA, ME, NE, WY). Do check your own state.
https://www.thetaxadviser.com/content/dam/tta/issues/…
I think that the headline writer didn't read through or understand Hulbert's article, or just wrote the headline for maximizing clicks.
Rebalancing isn't for enhancing returns.
But as the article points out, rebalancing is a risk control strategy.…
There are some advantages to putting rollover money in a separate T-IRA (sometimes also called Rollover T-IRA). It can have money from various rollovers. As most of the protections carryover from 401k/403b to such Rollover T-IRAs, this is a clean w…
Deals for brokered CDs are different from those at branches.
Brokered CD raise quick money nationally but are more expensive for the banks/CUs to offer. Local/branch deals are for captive/dedicated customers and often not as good.
Bond market anticipates 2-4 Fed rate hikes. The expectations now are of 2 more 25-bps hikes. So, this may be the tail end of the historic bond bear of 2022. It should be ok to start buying bond funds. High 30-day SEC yields point to potential future…
These cat-and-mouse games in DC are dangerous in that mistakes can happen, or something unpredictable happens.
2 examples:
In September 2008, when the Treasury and the Fed decided to let Lehman go, EVERYONE went to sleep thinking that EVERYTHING …
BTW, gold volatility GVZ has collapsed as physical gold and gold-miners have moved up quietly. Remember, when gold is near highs or lows, its volatility will jump sharply. It has been in the news that many global central banks have been accumulating…
Some are looking for crash-level VIX of 45-80 before the bear market ends. IMO, VIX remains elevated; it was elevated throughout 2022.
VIX of 21.13 means daily SP500 volatility of +/- 1.11% most of the time and +/- 2.22% or +/- 3.33% some of the t…
Default is when bills are not paid when due.
Why it occurs doesn't matter - the lack of ability or will or willingness to pay. Technically, there is also a grace period of a few days or weeks, but in case of debt-ceiling crisis, the max damage may…
