Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
My portfolio is tracked via M* Portfolio Manager.
I often check daily performance.
There is no really good reason for this since I don't trade too often.
"These were not a good investment starting in 2003 or so until inflation showed up in 2021."
I guess it depends on one's perspective.
I consider I Bonds to just be a cash substitute.
The 1.9% safe withdrawal rate (SWR) referenced in the article is much lower than some others suggest.
M* suggested a 3.3% SWR for a 50% stock/50% bond portfolio.
Bill Bengen believes retirees can safely withdraw 4%-plus from their portfolios
unless…
I remember Ken Heebner back in his heyday.
He was quite the gunslinger!
IIRC, CGMFX short-term performance was frequently either near the top or bottom of its category.
Also, I was invested in a Mutual Series fund (Beacon?) in the mid 90s when Micha…
Ken Heebner has managed CGM Realty Fund (CGMRX) since its inception in 1994 and CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX) since its 1997 inception. Both funds have above-average/high expense ratios and above-average/high risk according to M* (CGMRX may be miscategoriz…
This has been an extremely challenging year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio.
It's very rare for stocks and high-quality bonds to both be down for two or more consecutive quarters.
From Ben Carlson:
"The 6 month returns for a 60/40 portfolio wer…
"Anyone care to comment on AKREX (-29% YTD) or TMSRX (-5.5% YTD) ? Seems to me they were 'fan favorites', kind of crickets lately, anyone still holding? Talk amongst yourselves."
"Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX f…
The X shares are available exclusively via eligible defined contribution plans.
Go to the Dodge & Cox "funds at a glance" web page and click on the drop-down arrow for share classes.
The following info is listed for X shares: Class X (Defined Co…
If the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 close below June lows in the near future,
what does that portend for markets and what is the reasoning behind this?
I haven't investigated the tax ramifications of selling Treasuries in the secondary market.
Except for I Bonds which I've been purchasing for years, I've started buying Treasuries
(13-week / 26-week T-Bills) only recently in May. I buy at auction an…
"Most recently, Dodge & Cox moved to keep its funds attractive from a pricing standpoint.
It has long targeted cheapest-quartile expense ratios for its single, no-commission share class - a boon for retail investors. Over time, however, the fee …
U.K. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget was ill-received.
Consequently, the pound sterling fell sharply to a 37-year low against the US dollar.
The Bank of England was concerned the situation threatened the financial health
of Britain's largest…
VPCCX has been closed to most new investors for a while.
Vanguard Flagship/PAS customers can open new accounts in VPCCX without any purchase limitations.
Vanguard Flagship customers can open new Primecap (VPMCX) or Capital Opportunity (VHCOX)
accoun…
It seems highly improbable for three pipeline leaks to occur in quick succession.
Taking into account the current situation in Europe, I would suspect sabotage.
To echo what the European security source asked Reuters: Who would profit?
Sobering news indeed...
"For example, the largest U.S. bond fund strategy, the $514.5 billion Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX) is down 12.12% through Sept. 13, putting it on track for its worst year since its inception in 1986."
"The Vangu…
Have Stocks Become Cheap?
John Rekenthaler's view:
"Today’s stock prices are nowhere near cheap enough to forestall further losses, should the economic news worsen. If the Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates early into next year, and/o…
"Bonds were so weak today, 9/26/22, that several allocation funds lost MORE than SP500."
You're not kidding.
I just checked about a dozen intermediate core/core plus bond funds which I track via M*.
Thay were down 1.12% to 1.71% today
YTD returns r…
Past performance may be of limited use but I wouldn't say the corresponding info is meaningless.
Analyzing market history can assist investors in setting a range of expectations.
Of course, future investment results are not guaranteed.
Low P/E stock…
I've also heard much of the same.
There seem to be varying cycles where either foreign or domestic stocks outperform.
"The 1970s and 1980s saw Pacifics stocks, led by Japan, annihilate US and European stocks, which also lifted the performance of …
Thanks for sharing the Guardian article!
The near-term outlook for Europe is rather bleak.
China growth has also slowed considerably.
Inflation in many developed nations is higher than that of the U.S.
and their central banks haven't been as aggress…
@Old_Joe,
There definitely are major energy headwinds to contend with.
I have no idea how the energy situation will be resolved, but it will be resolved at some point.
The 30th anniversary for "Black Wednesday" recently occurred.
The collapse in the pound sterling forced Britain to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.
I certainly don't know where the bottom is, but international equities look cheap, especially given the outsized gains of the US dollar. I nibbled at FNDF, even though I doubt international equities will be big winners. Mean reversion is my hope.
Fr…
I'm using the S&P 500 as a bellwether for the broad U.S. market.
There have been twelve S&P 500 bear markets (peak to trough declines > 20%) since the end of WWII ¹.
The current year was taken out of consideration since it is a "work in …
Good move for short-term cash.
In my opinion, the 26-week T-Bill is currently in the "sweet spot" of the yield curve.
Select rates from the Dept. of Treasury website for 09/23:
1 mo. - 2.67%
3 mo. - 3.24%
6 mo. - 3.85%
1 yr. - 4.15%
2 yr. - 4.…
@hank,
I wouldn't say my judgement was better...
Our opinions regarding these two guests just differed.
The segment with Steve Rattner, chairman and CEO of Willett Advisors, was also interesting.
He believes that the biggest investment risk is ris…
Nice Neptune image!
Hopefully, the telescope's problem(s) will be resolved soon.
NASA’s former program director of the James Webb Space Telescope, Gregory Robinson,
was recently honored as the 2022 Federal Employee of the Year.
This was my first time listening to Tracy Alloway.
I was impressed with her thoughtful insights.
Kristina Hooper was just ok.
The Odd Lots podcast which Ms. Alloway co-hosts has been referenced by other financial writers/bloggers.
I'll have to give …
I just checked a bunch of intermediate-term core/core-plus bond funds that I track.
They're down 0.97% to 1.46% today.
Gundlach's call might be a little premature...
