Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I hope we never have to experience the Stagflation of the 70s again!
Since I was a teenager then, I didn't pay too much attention to the economy.
Although I didn't own a vehicle, I do recall the gas rationing of the early 70s.
Our economic situatio…
“Trade negotiations have been chaotic since the administration hit pause on the tariffs it unveiled on April 2
in its bid to rapidly reorder the global trading system. The goal is to reduce the country’s $1.2 trillion trade deficit along with many n…
"We got a decent monthly job report today.
We created 147K jobs, the government lost more jobs, unemployment is still good at 4.1%."
Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June which was higher than the estimate of 110,000.
Government employmen…
Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June which was higher than the estimate of 110,000.
Government employment (state and local) led all categories with an increase of 73,000.
Private payrolls had the smallest gain in eight months—74,000.
Also,…
On a somewhat related note, 139 EPA employees were placed
on administrative leave after they signed a letter critical of Trump's policies.
"The letter was made public earlier this week and titled as a 'Declaration of Dissent.'
'It accused the feder…
The Week in Charts (07/04/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:17 Topics
01:06 Strength Begets Strength
03:40 The Last 6 Months vs. The Last Decade
05:59 A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats
09:53 Jo…
"Given that the letter celebrates a bill passed entirely by one party the message,
in addition to being less than transparent,,, is highly political."
Yes, this was strictly a political missive.
Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano sent th…
From the NY Times article:
"Three times in the past half-century, Republicans have enacted large tax cuts
that necessitated significant increases in federal borrowing.
Each time they insisted the cuts would drive economic growth, even claiming
tha…
During the past 45 years, Congressional Republicans were fiscally conservative
only when Democrats controlled the executive branch.
Oh, how they wailed obsessingly about fiscal rectitude!
I've read the same Reuters article referenced in the OP.
Significant differences between the ADP and BLS Nonfarm Payroll Employment reports are not uncommon.
The Civilian Unemployment Rate has fluctuated between 4.0% and 4.2% thus far in 2025
which …
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the US Misery Index on a monthly basis.
This index is calculated by adding the inflation rate to the unemployment rate.
As we know, the Fed's dual mandate stipulates price stability and maximum sustainable emp…
Sadly, this is not surprising.
The Trump administration strives to suppress all information/data which contradicts their narratives.
This is part of the standard playbook for fascist regimes.
Our great nation will celebrate Independence Day later this week.
We gained our independence by fighting valiantly to defeat a tyrannical ruler.
We must do so again.
NO KINGS!
Some select quotes from Heather Cox Richardson's Letters from an American.
I share the senators' disgust regarding the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."
This ugly legislation is also estimated to increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over the nex…
I don't usually post comments regarding The Week in Charts.
Since the first half of the year has been "crazy", I'll make an exception today.
What will the second half of the year bring for investors?
Fourth worst S&P 500 performance through f…
Received following message via secure email today.
Dear Observant1:
Thank you for contacting Fidelity Investments regarding your Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) form and documents. I am happy to help with this.
I see that you submitted multiple …
"Did you get a better rate than the ultrashort bond fund, by purchasing the 6-month T-Bills?
They appear to be at 4.256% today.
Are you trying to head off a future drop in shorter term instruments? "
The 30-Day SEC Yield and TTM Yield for the ultr…
The Week in Charts (06/30/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:20 Topics
01:14 The Market Makes Fools of the Soothsayers
03:00 There Is No Impossible in Markets
08:37 All-Time Highs Again
10:2…
Yes, a weaker dollar does have certain advantages.
It will be beneficial for U.S. multinational corporations with significant foreign revenue.
The U.S. dollar's status as the preeminent global reserve currency is not in jeopardy.
Edit/Add: A weaker…
The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is calculated by factoring in exchange rates for the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF).
The dollar index declined more than 10% thus fa…
Sold BBBMX (ultrashort bond) and used proceeds to buy 26-week T-Bill at auction today.
Associated taxes will be deferred until next year since T-Bill matures on 01/02/2026.
"Goldman Sachs wrote in a note earlier this month that the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports suggest tariffs had “modest” effects on prices in May. The analysts expect the bulk of tariff-induced inflation to show up between June …
The U.S. auto industry currently uses foreign manufacturing to produce
lower-value parts while higher-end components are produced domestically.
However, President Trump wants cars to be 100% made in America
and has proposed 25% tariffs on imported c…
FD1000,
I didn't realize you were an auto racing enthusiast.
I'm curious why the Yugo was your platform of choice.
These cars were slow and often criticized for poor safety and reliability.
Did you swap the engine and modify the suspension?
Perhaps…
"Elections have consequences...for both parties."
You're absolutely correct.
Laws are broken; the constitution is not being upheld; idiotic tariff schemes are implemented;
indiscriminate federal govt. cuts are made; the world order which served the…
@FD1000
The following video explains why Trump's tariffs haven't sparked inflation yet.
The "Fed Whisperer" even shares his insights!
Perhaps you will find it enlightening.
https://www.wsj.com/video/series/on-the-news/economists-explain-why-trump…
JBP also has the advantage of being independently very wealthy.
Imagine: a wealthy person in public life who isn't out only for himself.
This is very difficult to comprehend at this moment in time.
@catch22
Thanks for the link to the Fidelity message board.
I received the same message that was referenced in the OP.
IIRC, micro-deposits have always been used to validate linked accounts
at every financial institution where I was a customer (inc…
This case focused on whether federal judges have the authority to issue nationwide injunctions.
The Supremes, in a 6-3 decision, ruled they do not.
The legality of denying birthright citizenship was not addressed.
My money is on Jay Pritzker, IL Governor
I recently watched a speech given by Jay Pritzker—he was quite impressive.
I haven't looked too closely at other top contenders for el presidente.
I shopped on Newegg "back in the day"—component availability and prices were excellent then.
I'm not a gamer which has helped to reduce spending on performance GPUs over the years.
