Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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Yet I would maintain that despite the current political situation, this is a highly unlikely scenario.
I think there will be brinkmanship, pushing things to the edge to make demands,
but not going over the edge to actual default.
Bingo!
If there is an actual default there will be no safe havens except possibly gold.
I don't anticipate a default although I assume there will be plenty of drama regarding debt ceiling legislation.
I'm not making any tactical portfolio changes in respon…
Certain members of the House are obstructionists/opportunists.
They are not there to help their constituents or to make this a better country.
I presume this crew will take advantage of debt ceiling negotiations to steal the spotlight,
make false cl…
I agree the Mark Okada interview was worthwhile.
Mr. Okada believes labor shortages will persist leading to higher Fed Funds rates for longer.
He was enthusiastic for AAA CLOs and also liked certain high-quality corporate bonds.
@Derf,
The 2022 rates of return listed above were obtained directly from Vanguard/Fidelity for each account.
I calculated total portfolio values after the last trading days of 2021 and 2022.
My overall portfolio value decreased 8.18% when 401(k), …
@sven,
I like your idea for starting a new thread to discuss 2023 plans.
I started this thread and am looking forward to responses from the MFO community.
Link
Here are some snippets from the DODBX Morningstar Analyst Report dated 06/16/2022.
"In May 2022, a newly formed balanced fund
committee, which features a well-rounded mix of the
firm’s equity, fixed-income, and quantitative veterans,
officially too…
Amna Nawaz and Geoff Bennett (lately of the weekend edition) are the new co-anchors. IMHO, they'll do a great job.
Although I'll miss Judy Woodruff, I concur with your assessment.
I can't assume the risk of being invested entirely in stocks.
I therefore utilize bonds (and "cash") to hedge equity losses.
Both equities and fixed income experienced losses in 2022 - this is a rare occurrence.
In late 2021, I sold my core bond hol…
Best portfolio performance enhancer: exchanging DODIX for stable value fund in late 2021.
Worst portfolio performance detractor: holding VWILX in 2022 (-30.79% return).
My portfolio consisted of ~70% stocks and ~30% bonds/cash at the start of 2022.…
It's a good idea to use long alpha-numeric passwords with mixed case and special characters.
The 2L-5N numbering plan was phased out in most locations during the 1960s
but it wouldn't surprise me if some of these obsolete phone numbers are included …
I plan to purchase I-Bonds at the end of January¹.
The current interest rate for I-bonds issued from November 1, 2022 to April 30, 2023 is 6.89%.
This interest rate is comprised of the semiannual inflation rate (3.24%) and the fixed rate (0.40%).
…
Judy Woodruff has had a long and distinguished career.
She moderated presidential debates and interviewed several heads of state.
In 2013, she became a PBS Newshour co-anchor with Gwen Ifill.
After Gwen Ifill passed away in 2016, Judy Woodruff becam…
Bought additional VPMCX shares to reach the annual purchase limit.
Sold stable value fund and bought DOXIX in 401(k).
This is the reverse of a trade executed on 12/31/21.
Bond fund yields are much more attractive today compared to last year.
Althoug…
Had to keep the Vanguard acct as Etrade like many other firms ,does not carry most Admiral funds. We put up with the negatives as others have noted but save a lot on the ER.
If E*Trade doesn't carry most Vanguard Admiral shares, then it wouldn't b…
@sven,
The Intelligencer article was very good.
I appreciate that it detailed opposing viewpoints regarding the economic outlook.
The author's conclusion is sensible:
"Next year, the U.S. economy will almost certainly slow down. Maybe by a lot. Hop…
While inflation may have peaked, it can take quite some time to reach the Fed's 2% target rate.
The inflation that remains (services sector, wage growth is large contributor) tends to be "sticky."
The Fed may alter its 2% inflation target if unemplo…
Most pundits are wrong in any given year.
They'll often predict 8% - 10% returns for the S&P 500
(near long-term S&P 500 avg.) in the coming year to play it safe.
I've read many of these predictions, but frankly, most are a waste of time.
Ha…
@Sven,
On the contrary, this makes a lot of sense.
Trump appointed a compromised, subservient IRS commisioner.
He leveraged this appointment to:
1) impede his IRS tax audits and the subsequent release of his tax returns
2) utilize IRS tax audits …
I sold DODIX and then bought a stable value fund late last year.
Plan to get back into DOXIX (replaced DODIX in 401k) soon.
Dodge & Cox is a good firm.
Why do people think foreign looks best over the next ten years? Valuations? I've heard that for years now.
Seems to me there are a lot of headwinds from inflation, and collateral damage from the war in Europe. Neither of those has a predictable end…
Old_Joe,
I've also watched PBS Newshour for many years.
One of the episodes (shortly after Jan. 6 insurrection?) was the source of David Brooks's statement.
@Anna, from an article in todays NY Times:
"At a news conference on Tuesday, Damian Williams, the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York, called on “any person, entity or political campaign that has received stolen customer mo…
Excerpts from Heather Cox Richardson's Letters from an American (12/15) regarding the Trump NFTs.
"Ron Filipkowski, a former federal prosecutor and Republican who now monitors right-wing extremism, tweeted: 'All I can say is that those of us who ha…
