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@Observant1
100% equities
I can't find where I posted 100% equities. Use SP500 for the stock portion.
Remember, we are talking about a lifetime period with no change = B&H.
This is no different than what some posters do on investment sites.
They…
The idea is to be in good categories, because markets proved they can be one sided for many years. I never understood why investors are overdiversified.
MFO is an amazing place to find great risk/reward managed funds, but I hardly see discussions a…
@low_tech
Who cares about the 4% "rule" when most bond funds are paying that and more, maybe much more? Just take the bond interest instead of eroding the asset base by selling anything.
Let's test the above. BND(US total bond index) the most recomm…
The common withdrawal works for large portfolios or someone with a nice pension that helps cover most/all expenses.
The other 80+% of the retirees will have a problem.
The following is easy to implement and you will never run out of money. Suppose …
The biggest problems with investment articles:
1) Bogle, and Burton Malkiel's Book, Random Walk proved decades ago that if you buy and hold the SP500 you would likely beat most investors and mutual funds for decades to come. There is not much to dis…
If you followed FD's guidance, you regularly purchased and sold funds
at very opportune times and never experienced losses greater than 3%!
What's not to like?
Easy, peasy... ;-)
When US LC are not doing well (2000 - 2009), it's an easy way to los…
The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Market Index, which BND tracks, dates back to 1976.
Let's put this in perspective.
Prior to 2022, the index experienced only four calendar year losses:
1994 - (-2.9%)
2013 - (-2.0%)
2021 - (-1.5%)
1999 -…
I do my best to steer clear of The Crowded Trade. It's fun, too, to uncover a good stock that's not getting much or any attention. No more penny stocks for me, though. Diversify, but do not di-worse-ify. Growing cash at the moment. Bullish, but valu…
"As someone who makes most of his money in bonds I never understood
why look mostly at high rated bond funds."
High quality bonds ("high rated" in your parlance), especially Treasuries,
are excellent diversifiers for equity-heavy portfolios.
Let's…
As someone who makes most of his money in bonds I never understood why look mostly at high rated bond funds. I want my funds to have a good risk/reward and the above don't do that. Higher-rated bonds have the highest correlation to rates with high v…
No need to be extreme. The pres in office can have a big affect on many things.
Obamacare had a huge affect long-term. IMO, it was one of the worst legislation. I priced what healthcare would cost me and my wife prior to Medicare.
Before Obamacare …
It doesn't surprise me. Over the years, there have been many ways to try to beat a simple index such as VOO/VTI/QQQ, but can't do it over the long term. The beauty of it is the fact that it is based on the market, AKA the price. The price is what bu…
@hank "Marks is big on buying at a discount and holding long term."
FD: Millions tried the above while only a small % have done, Buffett. I have read his articles for a couple years, but he never helped me with my trading which is mostly in bond fu…
Working hard and long hours in IT helps you in the long run...or...you can just be lazy and cry later why you didn't make the big bucks.
Of course, you can be lucky and do well.
I decided after about 12 years that I would never work more than 40-45 …
Well Crash, you dismissed it too quickly, maybe the new one is better
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISntD4uLUdk&t=899s
You get real analysis, including bonds...just my own opinion. It can improve most investors trading, and it doesn't mean wee…
First, it's 3 years, not 2 years.
Second, looks to me they started in 2019, not showing the peak of 2020. If you look at this chart(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q)
Trump started in Q1/2017 and by Q2/2020, real wages after inflatio…
Howard Marks is very smart and articulate, but you get generic ideas, and many shades of gray. You also get opinions on both sides to cover his Axx. The one thing you hardly get is what to do now and how markets work, and that's exactly what I'm loo…
I stopped paying attention to M* years ago because many of my best risk/reward funds in the past never met the above criteria.
MFO lists are much better and looking at meaningful criteria. Example: look for Great Owl Funds .
Maybe I shouldn't be, but I'm just surprised that 'sophisticated' folks like Fido would go into this investment given the mercurial and moronic impulses of its cosplaying CEO business jenius with MY money, let alone anyone else's.
Ye reap what ye s…
"was just on with a chat agent, not a phone call. Easier to do, without the 16 identity questions."
Any time I call, Schwab asks 2 questions and then to repeat an easy statement and I'm fully verified.
But why complain so much, please close the acc…
I have done more than that and never lost more than 1% from any last top since retiring in 2018.
The "secrets" are 1) Mostly owning 2-3 bond funds at a huge % 2) switching bond fund = good timing 3) avoiding market losses.
There's no easy way to …
The nice thing about Schwab ATM is the fact you can take out money around the world and they will refund you the fee by the end of the month.
Question: suppose you took out $300 from an ATM and you want to deposit back $150, how do you it with Schwa…
If the VIX in premarket is over 50, it's a great time to look at my other indicators, and if the big picture isn't good, I sell a lot.
I don't mind being out for several days if it's a fake one, but I want to be out a lot longer in real meltdowns.
The title changed; my post is not related.
mmm...so any time someone starts discussing politics, we are going to change the title?
This is why politics should not be discussed on an investment forum and since one side posts about it 4:1 or 3:1 more…
I didn't have a choice if I wanted to have money. I started investing at age 38 in 100% equities. I kept it at 90+% until the first million. Then, learn a lot about unique bond funds and by the time I retired it was at 90+% in bond funds.
Diversification by itself is too generic, which is why I made my point.
So again, if you are diversifying in just RE, stocks, CEFs, commodities. They are not guaranteed to be better than SPY.
I remember so many posters quoting Merriman, saying yo…
@hank
Diversification doesn’t guarantee better returns. Generally, diversification reduces risk and lowers longer term performance. If you can, throw 100% into a single low cost S&P index fund, shut your eyes for 40-50 years while ignoring the m…
@larryB,
I don't know what your problem was, but mine was usually answered.
Maybe it's time to transfer. I have done it several times between Fidelity and Schwab and why I keep them both.
The nice thing is that I got a nice cash bonus each time, and…
First mistake: using a chat. Always call, no ifs or buts. It's faster to get results.
Second mistake: call your local assigned rep, and let him/her lead you. You can also ask to talk with the local branch manager.
Third: CALL, and ask to talk with t…
OK.
Take 2.
1 if you're a purest.
2 if you're a traditionalist.
3 if you're an experimentalist.
5 if you're a conformist.
More than 5 funds, you should have your keys taken away.
c
Excellent. I'm going to frame this. :-)
The key word in Random Walk was COULD but why would anyone do it?
The SP500 or VTI beat most manage stock funds and definitely individuals over long term.
Malakiel, Bogle, and Buffett all agree.
Add to it the fact that these fund managers are traine…
The answer - 11 (prime number).
Why stop at 11, 13, 17, and 19 are also prime numbers.
But I like your Prime thing and why I have used 2,3 in the last several years and 5 for many years.
Concentration by itself doesn't work. I have been using concentration + momentum + best risk/reward funds + being in the right wide-range categories.
Since I started in 1995, there have been three long term cycles
1995-2000 + 2010-2020 = US Large ca…
I based my system loosely on 3 Buffet’s rules but adapted it to funds: Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1 and Rule 3: Diversification is a protection against ignorance. I added a fourth rule: momentum. I also liked Bog…
I think that most investors would generate similar to better results over time by using up to 5-7 funds, mostly indexes, hardly trade, and rebalance...all based on their goals, style and risk tolerance.
I never believed in any of the above, which is…
Ok, I got it.
MM pays now 5+% but for years it pays under 1%. A couple of year from now it will be much lower. I can always find pretty good risk/reward bond funds but that's my specialty.
Logins at 4 weeks interval and not interested too much tell …
Just like FAIRX,SGIIX,OAKBX during 2000-10, and later 2010-17 mostly in LC tilting growth, I slowly changed to bonds, by selecting PIMIX as my first bond fund in 2010 and increasing it to over 50%, but I sold in 01/2018 and never looked back.
Then …
