Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
No need to go far. Read Charles Lynn Bolin on this site. He posted well-thought articles about risk, reward, and markets which cater to different goals. These are all based on analysis, numbers, and logic.
If what makes you comfortable is the only (or main) criterion why are we spending so much time here?
Investing is all about performance...or...other investors are looking for better risk-adjusted performance.
I have a neighbor who is a multi-million…
Surviving only on income isn't a good option if your portfolio loses money or doesn't make enough, hence total return is everything. If your portfolio is big enough, you will survive anyway.
In the last 5 years, PDI paid about 50% of income in the…
As usual, it depends. ETFs could have higher volatility during the day based on real time event and back to "normal" when it's over while OEFs didn't experience it because the event happened between 10 to 11 AM.
Generally in time of stress, well kn…
@fd1000
How much do you think the tea leaf reader meaning Wilson pulls down in salary annually? Where else can you be so wrong and get paid to keep doing it?
There are several others who do this.
The weatherman=markets predictor
I never promoted income based portfolio. I say look at categories/stocks and select the best risk-adjusted ones. This can be growth stocks or income or others. Never starts your selection by looking only at higher-income stocks.
Drawing from a por…
@FD1000 In other threads haven't you also advocated for owning IOFIX at times, a bond fund with an extraordinarily high for bonds 1.50% expense ratio? You've also suggested PRWCX, which, while an excellent fund, isn't cheap but average expense ratio…
I listened to the Clark Howard show (https://clark.com/)in ATL in the early 90s. Clark has been a great advocate for consumers and promoted index funds. This is when I read my first investing book Random Walk..I didn't know much about investing but …
Hank, I keep a library of "experts" (and most are very famous) predictions for decades and it's not pretty. Only fools try predicting the future, but that's what keeps the media going.
I don't know why you are surprised that we agree on something. …
@FD1000: You can sit there and blather whatever you want. It doesn't change the fact that coming from middle-class families with little inherited wealth we can now sit here without any financial worry, and that our American Fund financial advisor pl…
FA(financial advisers) catch 22. When your knowledge is below average, you can't distinguish between a good FA to below average/average one.
When your knowledge is above average, you don't need a FA.
I never invested with AF funds. Suppose I start…
I'm not a big fan of American with so many funds and create confusion. The funds that are available at Fidelity have ER of 0.64% to 0.96% which isn't cheap. Their stock funds are better than bond funds. They use many financial advisers which I'm no…
In the last 20+ years, I read/heard many times about other indexes, they come and go but VOO or VTI are the golden standard. The way these two are calculated is another plus.
Goldman: Stock valuations are justified, even in the face of rising rate…
There are only far and a few star managers, these managers do well in most markets for 1-2 decades and are flexible enough to change. The first that comes to mind is Giroux managing PRWCX.
A reasonable way is to invest in top-performing categories/f…
From the article:
"As discussed in our 1Q23 letter, capital flows favor assets with the highest risk-adjusted returns. Investors that have been large buyers of investment grade CLO debt are now able to earn significantly better yields in newly issue…
The SP500 is the most recognized index that represents stocks and over decades it has done better than most other stocks, including thousands of managed funds and professional managers that worked very hard to beat it.
Diversifying did not help much…
Point taken @FD1000. You have said that your timing method isn't for everyone. That is true. And you have said that most should be diversified. But that begs the question, why do you keep posting about your system and trumpeting the great results yo…
Some really good discussion here. A couple comments:
@FD1000, So, just my opinion, good timing/trading is the only choice IF you can do it.
You are always self promoting this option. Fact is, 90% of every-day investors that try timing methods actua…
From January 2022 round table
Rupal Bhansali: US stocks to correct, favors EM. (FD: So far wrong)
Ellenbogen: fundamental stock picking is going to take hold. I expect the first half year to be down (FD: wrong on both, SPY did great).
Giroux: big te…
Charles Lynn Bolin does an excellent job explaining risk/volatility/unique funds and how to build a portfolio. If you pay attention, it's not static, his view keeps changing because markets keep changing. See below 2 good examples:
https://www.mutua…
"It’s about being able to stay near fully invested - even at an advanced age - and doing better than you would if parked 100% in cash (or cash-like investments)"
You are now going to the other extreme of only cash. There is a lot going on between 0…
I understand DSENX because Doubleline explains it very well.
In the last several years, PIMIX managers also used higher leverage (and the ER was much higher). It all boils down to the fact that PIMIX is more of a black box where I don't know what …
I have spent years looking for hedging, and shorting funds, starting with AQR. I could not find any consistent fund that can do it. A fund can work for several years and then stop working for other years.
My conclusion is that the only thing that wo…
JHQAX sounds good in theory. SPY suffered about 20% fall in Q4/2018 + lost over 30% in 03/2020 and over 20% in 2022....but SPY made almost twice as much as JHQAX.
Chart (https://schrts.co/mEAddMPX)
@msf
href="https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/tmsrx/portfolio">per M*? A mere trifle. PIMIX / PONAX, a fund lauded here, has129% in fixed income shorts (net 188% long), and has 222% in cash shorts (net 89% short) suggesting a lot of lever…
TRAIX @ Schwab. This discussion got me curious if this fund could be purchased at Schwab. I went to trade mutual fund and put in the symbol. To my surprise it told me that fund required a $1.00 minimum and no transaction charge. When I tried to bu…
@FD1000 I have been reading that you are a proponent of 3-line break. What is it telling you today regarding ORNAX and NHMAX? Please don't come back in three weeks and tell us what it told you on 7-14-23.
mmm...so you want to learn but over the yea…
@FD1000 I have been reading that you are a proponent of 3-line break. What is it telling you today regarding ORNAX and NHMAX? Please don't come back in three weeks and tell us what it told you on 7-14-23.
mmm...so you want to learn but over the yea…
Yep, we have discussed PIMIX for years. It's difficult to know exactly what they do at any given time. I used to own a lot of it prior to 01/2018.
But perform Percentile Rank in its category is...1+3 year=20-22...5 years=15. Not too shabby for AUM…
@FD1000 I have been reading that you are a proponent of 3-line break. What is it telling you today regarding ORNAX and NHMAX? Please don't come back in three weeks and tell us what it told you on 7-14-23.
mmm...so you want to learn but over the year…
Hank, thank you for deleting part of your previous post. There is not a "pure" definition of bond funds and you know it. Use your judgement.
Let's look at BAMBX "Strategy: The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a range o…
Hank
This thread is about "Anybody Investing in bond funds?"
Please post about bonds since we have more threads about stocks/allocation/multi-strategy.
My calls are based on what I see in the markets. The Fed have been raising rates aggressively. T…
FAFRX (bank loan) continues to do well YTD. Other good ones are GIFIX, then FFRHX. The first two funds...YTD>7%...one year>10-11%...3 year>19-21%. All 3 funds SD is about 4.2.
But that's not all, compare this to PRCPX+TUHYX and you can se…
For me, Dan Ivascyn is the most crucial for me to understand bonds and what to do. For many years, Dan Ivascyn has been saying the same thing which is "I can still find opportunities in MBS that I like".
FAFRX (bank loan) continues to do well YTD. Other good ones are GIFIX, then FFRHX. The first two funds...YTD>7%...one year>10-11%...3 year>19-21%. All 3 funds SD is about 4.2.
But that's not all, compare this to PRCPX+TUHYX and you can se…
LB "your repeating qualified subjective statements regarding what’s most important to people economically over and over again doesn’t make them true."
FD said "The 2 biggest items for most people are housing and transportation."
Most people spend t…