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Hank
This thread is about "Anybody Investing in bond funds?"
Please post about bonds since we have more threads about stocks/allocation/multi-strategy.
My calls are based on what I see in the markets. The Fed have been raising rates aggressively. T…
FAFRX (bank loan) continues to do well YTD. Other good ones are GIFIX, then FFRHX. The first two funds...YTD>7%...one year>10-11%...3 year>19-21%. All 3 funds SD is about 4.2.
But that's not all, compare this to PRCPX+TUHYX and you can se…
For me, Dan Ivascyn is the most crucial for me to understand bonds and what to do. For many years, Dan Ivascyn has been saying the same thing which is "I can still find opportunities in MBS that I like".
FAFRX (bank loan) continues to do well YTD. Other good ones are GIFIX, then FFRHX. The first two funds...YTD>7%...one year>10-11%...3 year>19-21%. All 3 funds SD is about 4.2.
But that's not all, compare this to PRCPX+TUHYX and you can se…
LB "your repeating qualified subjective statements regarding what’s most important to people economically over and over again doesn’t make them true."
FD said "The 2 biggest items for most people are housing and transportation."
Most people spend t…
The 2 biggest items for most people are housing and transportation. They increase 40+% and vehicles are up 30+% since 01/2020. Do you know many who got a 30% salary increase?
Are most better off now than four years ago? the answer is clear, it's…
@FD. I agree that folks with pensions and those who don’t are facing entirely different retirements. But I disagree with your second statement. If I had a pension ( and I don’t) I would have less reason to have “ a higher % in stocks.” Given a s…
The world is divided to have a pension and don't have a pension. These are 2 different worlds. The more pension you have, and the more it covers someone's expenses, the higher % in stocks someone can have.
Roy, the nice thing about investing is the fact that very seldom you can find exceptional funds which defy common concepts such as low expense + index do best over a longer time.
PRWCX is one of them. In the past I used PIMIX(2010-2017), SGIIX,OAKBX…
More buyers than sellers always drive prices higher. Other reasons are not always true.
Over the years many analysts were wrong in trying to predict FUTURE performance based on earnings, valuation, fundamentals, the economy, inverted yield, inflatio…
According to M*
AUM=96.6 million
Performance YTD in category Percentile Rank = 79 and lagging. One year is in the top 10, not bad.
I would use a generic fund like DODIX.
As Trader, I can find much better options but none are in the Intermediate C…
LB, I already read the article the first time. The economy was great until covid arrived.
Can you deny that Trump had the biggest increase in real wages since 1980 or the other fact that houses and vehicles which are usually the biggest 2 items are…
The final numbers are after covid started. The whole world economy collapsed. That was a black swan. Everything has a context.
The easiest way to measure success is effordability. The 2 biggest items to purchase are homes and vehicles. I will check …
Real wages are still higher than they were in three out of the four years of the previous administration prior to the Covid outbreak, and it's false to say every month. They just started to rise this year:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES125…
I "love" Bofa predictions. See what they said on 12/28/2022 (https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-volatility-2023-investing-strategy-sp500-bank-america-subramanian-2022-12)
Bofa recomendations were:
1) Subramanian said she sees stocks going…
According to LCORX's Fact Sheet, its investment objective is: "Capital appreciation and income while maintaining prudence in terms of managing exposure to risk. Investment guidelines are 30%-70% equity exposure and 30%-70% fixed income." What is the…
LCORX?
I have been recommending PRWCX easily over 10 years. It's one of the best allocation funds of all time. Yes, I know, it's a flexible go-anywhere fund.
Since the inception of LCORX...LCORX made 695% while PRWCX made "only" 1453.8%(more than d…
"The heart of his research was grounded in the basic relationship between risk and reward....."
It's interesting...but how does it help my portfolio risk-adjusted portfolio by telling me what to do at what time? We saw in 2022 that both stocks and…
Unfortunately, LSLTX doesn't have a longer history. Comparing VS the SP500 after a huge 5 years run and then losing for the next 10 years isn't fair either.
2009-10 IMO is fairer.
I posted 2009 or 2010. Since 2010, 2011 the SP500 did much better. The SP550 had a huge run of 250% in just 5 years 1995-1999 https://schrts.co/ykvzeewQ
In the next 10 years 2000-2010 it lost money. https://schrts.co/wVEarbKn
A chart since 2010 sh…
Interestingly, Leuthold Select Industries, LSLTX, has beaten VFINX, the Vanguard S&P 500 fund, since its inception but lagged VIMAX, the Vanguard mid-cap index fund. Depending on how you want to define the Leuthold fund, you could call that succ…
You can do a lot worse than 60/40. A good example is someone who owns 10-15 funds...or someone with overlapping securities, underperformance, and diversification that isn't good enough.
Blackrock have an interesting article about it. As expected, th…
Pessimists get the microphone. Optimists make the money.
+1
What a surprise, economists have been wrong for decades.
Hint: every time someone predicts markets based on the economy, unemployment, valuation, inverted yield and many others, there is…
Lynch was great, but he did it when a lot of information wasn't available and most investors didn't have an easy access to all the tools we have in the last 20 years. See below BRK.A performance. It is very clear that the best performance was in t…
It depends. Someone who mostly buys and holds and what most should do, has no issues. Trading markets since Covid started is harder. Risk/volatility is elevated, market changes have been faster. I changed too because of it. I trade more often, think…
[snip]
The more you diversify, the chances are your portfolio will not beat the indexes and why Buffett said "Diversification is a protection against ignorance".
[snip]
Warren Buffett speaking to MBA students:
"If you are not a professional inve…
First, 60/40 is just an idea, an investor can be in 50/50 and all the way 100/0. It depends on someone's age and goals.
PRWCX is a unique go-anywhere fund. It's not your typical 60/40. PRWCX excels in risk-adjusted performance and can be measured b…
sma3, from experience, if many clients call about the same problem, you know it's an IT issue. If it's one person...
The most common help question is "I did nothing and suddenly it doesn't work". In most cases, the client always did something new. …
The SP500 made over 20% since 10/22 and soon will go down 5%...looks trivial to me.
150 billion sounds impressive, the 24/7 media loves to impress. Instead of saying the Dow is 1% down, they say the Dow is down 350 points.
"The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday, but officials signaled they are prepared to raise rates again this year to tame stubborn inflation."
The second part intends to be hawkish to cover their a$$. What matters is actual which w…
Several reps said that buying above 90% violates a securities rule (either FINRA or SEC). So I told them: if this is true how come Schwab let you do it? It's hard to believe a company that size would violate this rule thousands of times.
The rep rea…
I continue to use MM which pays 4.9-5% compared to 3-6 months treasuries at 5.2-5.3%. The difference is insignificant. MM lets me trade in/out of funds very easily.
I have been complaining about the above for over 10 years to Fidelity reps/supervisors. Several reps told me it's a finra/sec rules but it's not correct. It's Fidelity's own imposed rules.
As a trader, it's just annoying and wasting extra time. Whe…
Over the years when I wanted to own/ trade bank loans, I used one of the following FAFRX,EIFAX,OOSAX.
WABAC, the only fund I have used instead of MM/CD YTD, was RPHIX. I don't trust any other funds.
DT, good analysis. The CME-fedwatch-tool shows no rate increase this week, a 62% chance increase of 0.25 next month, and a decrease of 0.25% by year's end. Looks to me, not much change while the Fed fund rate stays elevated.
If I search by Sharpe(si…
Hank: FD - Just a reaction to your use of “proprietary”. It sounds as if you can’t share your approach on a board dedicated to sharing and helping one another. But perhaps I misunderstood your intent. Sorry if I offended you.
FD: I did share, read …
Some people have T-DS and some have FD-DS.
Hank, if you think that my system is too funny, I welcome you to dive a bit into it(link). Several did and doing very well. The whole idea is to find great risk/reward funds, small AUM is a plus, an uptren…
