Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Anytime you make a trade, once a month or once a year, you are a trader, and it doesn't matter if it's 10% or 30%.
After years of trading every 4-6 months, I found out that trading based on current market conditions gives me the best risk/reward. I…
^MOVE, the bond risk, is over 120 and indicates elevated risk.
MOVE > 110 has a nice correlation to high volatility in bonds and in most cases, typical high-rated bonds don't do well.
On 3-2-2020 it was at 125 = sell everything = correct. The we…
BB: "How often do you run the fund screener even if your current holdings are performing to your satisfaction?
FD: My simpler original system says run it every 4-6 months regardless of anything and select the best risk/reward funds.
My newer tradi…
So, when someone posts about a fund I own now and says, Well, in 2022, it lost more than another fund or in the last 10 years, this fund was better than another, I don't care, what matters is what the fund is doing now..
The problem is defining "…
It doesn't look good.
I don't worry to much about this fund. Sold it late in 2021 and never used it after that. Since late 2012 it lost a lot and haven't rebounded much while other funds in the same space came back.
1) hank "@FD / Wouldn’t it help people more if you posted what different investments will do in the next 1, 5, 10 years rather than what they did in the past?"
FD: your claim is pretty old. I don't predict what would be good, I invest based on what…
@MikeM, I did understand you pretty well. Racqueteer's answer was excellent, explaining it further. There are so many styles between traders to B&H for ever.
You could have constructed a very nice portfolio in 2010 just to find out that your dec…
Good observation but most articles that discuss bonds mean treasuries or high rated bonds.
Last week BND,DODIX lost 1.2%.
But, HY munis (ORNAX,MMHAX) were flat last week.
Bank loans (EIFAX) and ICMUX also made money last week.
It's my perception that people who move in and out of funds are "fund" investers, maybe even collectors, not over-all "portfolio" investors. My hope is having a portfolio that trends upward with the least amount pf volatility I can obtain. The portf…
Observations:
1) fred495 is a good trader. Every investment board have different traders. The ones who buy and hold years, the ones who switch every 2-3 years, and others who change when they see better funds than what they have.
So, when someone po…
This thread should be about Iran, it's proxies, Israel, the Middle East, and the US. You have to discuss history because it's all part of the complex.
Was this a new escalation? Yes
Is Israel going to attack? Yes
If Mexico and its proxies will send …
A war with Iran maybe bad, but doing nothing is worse IMO.
Israel is in its second independence war.
A reminder, just 4 years ago the Middle East was calm and 4 Arabic countries signed a peace agreement, first time since Israel became a country. All…
YBB:
So, I don't see what is attracting retail investors to cat-bonds.
FD: any time I see a bond fund with 8% potential per year with a smooth uptrend, I join it.
If the fund makes 10+%, I dance. I don't know many retirees who wouldn't love this.
T…
In Schwab the min is $2500 + $49.95. Most times I don't pay this.
Even if I pay for it, it's meaningless compared to the amounts I invest.
Most investors do too much analysis. If I know the manager and the uptrend is good and smooth I will buy, and …
I was able to place a trade but didn't do it.
I always wait several weeks to see the performance of a new fund.
We drove today to Johnson City TN and tried to hike in 2 places but they were closed. I don't understand why because these places were no…
This is why VOO,VTI indexes have been recommended by Bogle and Buffett. It's a cap weighted index. No need to trade. All you got to do is add monthly for 3-4 decades and enjoy your retirement.
Promised are "great" until you realize someone else must pay for it, and why businesses stopped offering pensions.
IMO, all State/Gov/Education pensions should be eliminated over several years
If a private company offers a pension, it's the company'…
@hank, I have watched and analyzed ALT funds, especially AQR funds, for about 15 years. I'm not impressed, and I explained why.
The only way to avoid big losses is to do timing using special bond funds (PIMIX, IOFIX in the past and others in the las…
The 3 years for QLEIX looks good because of 2022. This is where ALT funds excel.
Then, you have years when they trail and way in the back.
BY the time most investors realize markets are going down and load on these funds, they miss most of the melt…
I'm in a North suburb of ATL. The weather guys were warning us for days, but luckily we just had heavy rain for 3 days and it passed. ATL and the GA coast hardly ever get hit.
In 2 days we are vacationing about 1.5 hours north of Ashville. I'm not g…
Let's test fund flow and look at taxable bond as an example.
Inflow was going high from early July to mid July. From mid July to mid Aug is was an outflow.
Now, look at a 4 months chart of BND(https://schrts.co/EdAKFnRT). In the first period, BND w…
I never cared about crowding in bonds and stock funds years ago for about 30 years now. It meant that I'm in the right fund/category and made good money.
We have been hearing about the big tech companies crowded trade for about 15 years.
Do I reall…
Good thread.
Juan de la HOZ has been discussing CLOZ and explaining it in simple language since 8/2023. See (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4627176-cloz-bbb-bb-clo-etf-strong-10-7-percent-sec-yield-low-interest-rate-risk).
He published another a…
CBLDX is 40% investment grade and 55% high yield. Curious to know how this can be a comparable to a MM or CD where principal is (almost) guaranteed.
Personally I would consider CBUDX as closer to a MM because 75% of holdings are investment grade.
W…
REMIX is a complicated fund using a black box management*.
Fidelity shows Top 10 Holdings AS OF 07/31/2024 at (https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/90470L576)
* The All-Weather strategy is an asset allocation methodology that …
@ FD. For several years the total return on CD’s killed bond funds for everyone but you. The situation was shorted lived but lots of risk free cash flow was fun while it lasted.
First, the question is about now.
Second, in the last 2 years the r…
Hi FD1000. Thank you for commenting and joining the discussion. No, I am not a trader. The only funds that I own in the list I provided are CBLDX and PYLD. I, like you, like to invest with special managers in the bond arena. Who would you recommend …
@mnz,
Your second post revealed a lot more.
Are you a trader? Welcome to my sandbox.
Most investors like to hold for a couple of years.
If you can predict rates in the nearest future, you can do pretty well. I also think that rates fell in anticipat…
I posted since last year that RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX are great funds managed by the same manager.
RPHIX would be my closest thing to MM, the other 2 are just good risk/reward funds.
THOPX is another option that I found this year.
Never in my life I owne…
@Observant1
100% equities
I can't find where I posted 100% equities. Use SP500 for the stock portion.
Remember, we are talking about a lifetime period with no change = B&H.
This is no different than what some posters do on investment sites.
They…
The idea is to be in good categories, because markets proved they can be one sided for many years. I never understood why investors are overdiversified.
MFO is an amazing place to find great risk/reward managed funds, but I hardly see discussions a…
@low_tech
Who cares about the 4% "rule" when most bond funds are paying that and more, maybe much more? Just take the bond interest instead of eroding the asset base by selling anything.
Let's test the above. BND(US total bond index) the most recomm…
The common withdrawal works for large portfolios or someone with a nice pension that helps cover most/all expenses.
The other 80+% of the retirees will have a problem.
The following is easy to implement and you will never run out of money. Suppose …
