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Hi FD1000, interesting article regarding sp500 maybe bottom by tom floyd/ (spy 50 days moving average just crossed 200 days
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4332963-spy-plan-now-to-buy-bottom
Perhaps start small portions …
Easy, NO. look at YTD performance.
I try not to use the word SAFE but volatile.
When rates are going up quickly Treasuries are one of the worse categories
When rates are going down, Treasuries are one of the best categories.
When a black swan hits,…
In a meltdown + selling pressure, many bonds fund would collapse. Even MINT was down -1.35% yesterday. YTD, MUNI (not HY Munis) which are usually "safe" are down too much, only treasuries survived.
2018 Deja Vu.
But, coming out of this mess we …
Yes, many bond categories are down, down, down.
On Feb 29 I reported the following: YTD mostly in 2 bond funds investing at a higher % in NHMAX + lower % in IOFIX. Last Thursday, I sold half of NHMAX. On Friday, I sold all of NHMAX + most of IOFIX.…
coronavirus deaths < 200. Flu deaths between 22K to 55 = about 35-40,000. Corona is 10 times more deadly but we still have fewer deaths. Sure, we need to do all we do and be informed.
So far the SP500 fell about 30% from its top. When to buy…
That means they have higher correlation to rates, are simple indexes and mostly/all higher rated bonds. Managed funds allow managers to invest in other categories (HY, MBS) to get higher yield but also allow them to have better performance when rat…
"The headline is a little sensational. " "Trump faces echoes of 1929 in coronavirus crisis" enough said. It's amazing how someone politically biased shapes their opinion.
I do my own research.
Flu deaths in the last several months according to t…
We are in a bear market where most categories are down and correlation is up which means higher losses.
A one month (chart) shows that GLD + SPY(stocks) + BND(bond index) + PCI(CEF) + PIMIX (Multi) are all in a downtrend. BND+GLD only in a one-wee…
Unfortunately, I don't see a relief because of the following:
1) Stocks meltdown
2) Interest rates are down but many bond fund categories are down in the last 2 weeks instead of up
3) Since Monday VIX is over 50. Last time it was over 50 happened …
D&C have good funds but many of them are riskier and it shows at market stress such as 2008 and many times when stocks go down at least 10%. This is why when volatility increases, such as the last 3 years, their funds lag.
I have never owned th…
At Schwab, you enter the trade and before the "PLACE ORDER" it will tell you
DHEIX isn't available - only to institutions.
DHEAX-free to buy, min $2500, 90 days early redemption fee at $49.95
JMISX (Inst share)-it's free to buy(unique, not at Fidel…
>> I sold ... PINCX ... BCOIX
>> I bought PINCX+BCOIX earlier last week
short-term-trading penalties / fees ?
PAID $49.95 ST for PINCX. Paid nothing for BCOIX. Made thousands :-)
I don't pay for buying Inst shares, selling doesn't …
Lots of stuff today to cover
Multi- PTIAX at 0% was fantastic. VCFAX at -0.3% and IOFIX at -0.4 was not bad when SEMMX was down -0.46. JMUTX+JMSIX -1.3% was another proof why securitized is the best. Second-tier PUCZX at -2.9% and PIMIX is stil…
(link)
E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index sank 5% to 2,819 as of 8:05 p.m. in New York. After briefly rallying, they slipped back to the limit-down level and held there about two hours later. The curb means the contract can’t trade at a lower …
As usual, they hardly ever discuss one of the best options...Multi sector bond funds.
The following are paying over 4% SEMMX,JMSIX,IOFIX,VCFAX,
FI CEFs such as PCI pay over 8% with better performance than SPY and others + volatility=SD is better too…
If I want to buy a fund I just do it at Schwab (I have a small account at Fidelity too) and if it's not there I don't buy. I can buy VLAAX or VLAIX at $100K min + $49.95 (which I usually don't pay) and then I can add or switch to another fund.
For …
I owned it years ago for just a short time. PIMIX was so much better. I realized years ago TGBAX has higher bets on currency and EM bonds. The fund was great during 2008-9. Yes, it's another PAUIX and FAIRX :-)
I owned PIMIX and FAIRX for years…
@FD1000 : A question ,when you have time. Do you have back-up plan if Fed keeps dropping interest rate. I came across article in WSJ, Tue. or Wed. which laid out that question.
Thank you, Derf
I always…
@sma3
I do worry about all these lower rated bonds in the securitized category. This is why I de-risk my portfolio staring Feb 27-28 when I sold all my HY Munis + lots of IOFIX. In the last several days I started to cover core plus funds and inves…
Last week was a good test for your bond funds.
Multi-SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,JMUTX,JMSIX. PTIAX(1.1%) continues its momentum which tells me they own higher rates bonds than the rest. JMSIX(0.5%) had a nice week too. IOFIX (0.40%) continues…
Years ago I worked as a developer for mutual funds transfer agent which handles all these funds trades. The following is a common process: the big shops like VG, Fidelity, Schwab, and others have their own internal transfer agent. Schwab aggregate…
I'm so glad I transferred most of my money to Schwab. I got several thousand cash reward + I trade with no warnings.
You can't do the following easy trade at Fidelity. Suppose your IRA has $100,500 in PIMIX and you want to buy $100K of JMUTX instea…
FPFIX is a pretty good fund invested mainly in securitized and low duration=1.7 and a good "cash sub". Another similar fund is DHEIX with duration=1.4. Both invested mostly in IG bond rating. I like DHEIX a bit more because it's yield = 3.9 while…
The following is a research I have done for myself
I was looking for a fund to park my money until things come down but also make some money and searched for the followings:
1) higher rated bonds.
2) flexible. The above 2 mean...the Intermediat…
Rates are down sharply so it's not a surprise that higher-rated bond funds are doing pretty well...but..what about the rest
HY Munis are not working since last week and why I'm still waiting.
PTIAX continues to shine.
IOFIX is doing best within s…
After watching markets for decades and looking for many signs I still can't find any that can predict market crashes in the next weeks and even months. PE,PE10(Shiller),Bogle,Arnott,GMO, inverted yield and other can all be off by years and why I ne…
"Love" to read the these articles
"Los Angeles International Airport, rated AA, last week borrowed at below AAA yields, with bonds maturing in 2021 yielding just 0.63%. Even risky debt is paying only what top-rated securities once did. An Ohio agen…
@mcmarasco
I don't promote or recommend funds but discuss them. You need to make your own decisions based on your goals and due diligence. We have different goals and styles.
@guilhermes
I don't know how you can get liquidity info and you can't pr…
Duration is not a guarantee to work better. Securitized is a special sub-category. Funds like PIMIX with duration=0.68 can lose money pretty quickly. Duration works better with simple index high rated funds.
You want to own funds that do well in i…
@guilhermes
ZEOIX had a good record for several years but HY have their problem when markets collapse. Losing -0.8% is a lot of money especially when you compare it to DHEIX which has over 80% in IG rating bonds. BTW, ZEOIX also lost -0.6% in Q4/20…
@davidrmoran
When I say 4.5% including inflation it means exactly that. These numbers are based on 3% inflation. In 2010 I planned my retirement date to be at the end of 2017. I postponed it by one year because private healthcare (ACA) triple in pr…
Mark, I have heard this claim for years, the NAV is still OK but in reality, you trade the price and the only one you have access to your money ;-)
I do agree the NAV is an important aspect of valuation+trading and in many cases, it's clearer to se…
Analysis at the end, after the performance.
Performance......YTD...one week as of 2/29/2020
Multi
PDIIX……1.35....-1.0
PUCZX….0.7..…-1.35
JMUTX....1.3....-0.6
JMSIX.....1.4….-0.1 (JGIAX)
PTIAX….3.7….1.0
Multi(high % securitized)
PIMIX.....0.3….-1.0…
Of course, high rated bonds were up and why EDV+TLT are up so much YTD, last month and last week.
As expected VWINX did fine because it has about 60% in high rated bonds and why VASIX with about 80% did better than VWINX.
The question is what funds…
MikeM, usually you are correct but in rare cases, I go with what I feel is right based on my goals. I can't lose either case. If rates go down I "miss" the opportunity but I already made a big chunk of my yearly goal. If rates go up, I will not l…
US treasury and high quality investment grade bonds have done the best. Junk and emerging market (USD hedged or local currency) bonds had declined.
When rates decline high rated bonds do great.
As a mainly bondholder like me who wants to make mo…
