Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The chart is in an uptrend since early May and several HY Munis made 7-9% since then. I'm in. I let my fund managers worry about where to invest because I pay them nicely.
I don't bother with the name because I never call TRP. All my funds have been in the last 20 years at Fidelity + Schwab. The only TRP fund I have ever held was PRWCX, which is one of the best allocation funds for many years.
I keep a very simple …
Has Schilling ever been right?
06/2011(link) "New recession begins next year, Shilling says" = wrong
02/2013 (link) "Gary Shilling: Why You Should Sell Stocks And Buy Treasurys" = way wrong
11/2016(link) "A Trump win might be bad for stocks" = wr…
Love to show how these sites are wrong. Below is what Predictit showed just before the 2016 election. It said all the way to the election that Hilary will win, so much for accuracy ;-)
The stock market is not a good predictor. "The economy, stupi…
I believe the barometer has a good value in accessing short term market movement which is difficult to achieve. Good work :-)
In the last several years I find Tony Dwyer to be pretty good at forecasting short term market movements. Yesterday has s…
These articles have been published when the market were lower by 5,10 and 15%. I have heard in the last 10 years that rates can only go up, that the stock market is overvalued for years, that inverted yield signals top, that PE + PE10 are too high.
…
Old_Skeet, your method is good but has lots of moving parts. Just an observation, not criticism :-)
A typical rebalance achieves similar results when stock prices go down and you keep switching from bonds to stocks to keep the same asset allocati…
ANBEX is one of the funds I posted about several months ago. See its chart(link) compared to the index.
When I look at Fidelity funds screener ANBEX has the best performance for 1-3 years in the Intermediate Core Bond + Intermediate Core Bond plus c…
Fund F = Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
As expected it did its job as ballast to stocks.
What is going to be its performance in the next 5 years? maybe 2-2.5% annually.
I don't expect inflation to rise beyond Fed expectations. I have …
In 2020 my portfolio was up almost every week, max loss from any top was 0.5%. I sold most of my portfolio at the end of 02/2020. See thread(link).
YTD I'm up nicely. In the last 3 years, I made 9.3% annually with SD=2.07 as of July 3rd, 2020. Th…
@BigTom is right-on in my opinion (on a few things here but we'll discuss liquidity). Investing in a fund with liquidity concerns in today's times is very risky. How soon we forget (?) I learned my lesson with IOFAX and will never purchase another …
BigTom, I do see this fund as aggressive for a bond holding, but I think there is room for aggressive bond funds within an overall portfolio, especially when managers like Scott Minerd are saying stocks are priced for perfection but there is still v…
I owned IOFIX on/off for months until I sold almost all my funds to cash on February 29. I posted at this thread earlier (link)
February 29 edited February 29 Flag
@mark
This is a very unique time for me and why I will answer your question:-)
My …
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Observations:
Last month was another good month. Several bond funds made as much or more money than stocks.
Multi- another good month, several did over 2%. MBS/Securitized…
The difference between VCIT and some of the funds you are “pumping” is VCIT has recovered its losses and most of your other funds are still down YTD.
Other funds? I don't own any of these funds. I already explained why VCIT recovered so why repea…
I don't promote anything. This is exactly the type of fund I love to own. Great managers, new fund, small AUM, under the radar fund. In the Multi sector bond category it has the best year to date performance + great volatility + very high yield. …
This is exactly the type of fund I love to own. Great managers, new fund, small AUM, under the radar fund. In the Multi sector bond category it has the best year to date performance + great volatility + very high yield. The fund has about 50% in…
This is exactly the type of fund I love to own. Great managers, new fund, small AUM, under the radar fund. In the Multi sector bond category it has the best year to date performance + great volatility + very high yield. The fund has about 50% in…
VTI/SPY performance was higher than BND in the last 10-20-30 years. Nothing new. What is going to be in the next 10-20 years? probably the same.
That was easy.
If you don't care about volatility then you should be in 100% stocks, in fact, you shou…
Same angry voices. I sleep well regardless and don't pay attention to polls.
Mona: FD1k loves to preach "momo" except when it does not fit his narrative.
FD: can you explain the personnel attack? ho, I get it, you lost money year to date while I…
Same angry voices. I sleep well regardless and don't pay attention to polls.
Mona: FD1k loves to preach "momo" except when it does not fit his narrative.
FD: can you explain the personnel attack? ho, I get it, you lost money year to date while I…
That was funny.
James Carville in 09/2016 (link) "It’s hard to look at it right now and come to any other conclusion than it is going to be a pretty sizable win for the Democrats"
NY Times 10/2016 Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance to win - The Ne…
@LewisBraham
I understand exactly where you are going with. I know the statistics.
You want to blame everything on color and I'm saying it's not all color, maybe you can look a bit deeper into the culture, attitude, family. All I know is that we h…
So now I see, it's all about color and race, how convient...mmm...several of the poor uneducated immigrants that lived near me were from Nigeria and the Caribbeans and they are doing as well. Nice try but it doesn't work on me ;-)
BTW, in my high…
@FD1000 Your story doesn't disprove my statement that you're out of touch with the financial realities of most Americans but highlights it. You've had a good education, came here in your mid-30s, after being educated most likely, and I suspect paren…
It is so sad to see a candidate like Biden with health issues. I wouldn't let him manage a small business with 10 employees. Why his family and friends don't tell him the truth?
And then there is Trump, regardless of what you think he will be el…
From wiki(link)
John Peter Hussman (born 15 October 1962) is an American stock market analyst and hedge fund owner. From 1992 to 1998, Hussman was Professor of Economics and International Finance at the University of Michigan.[2][3] In 1998–2000, H…
@FD1000 You are completely divorced from what the financial realities are for most Americans.
I actually know a lot about what is going on. I started working at age 13 in the summer and then every week for several hours in high school and saved mo…
The stock market? you either be an entrepreneur and take the risk of failing or become a millionaire or select the easier choice and own stocks and become a millionaire. I selected the second choice :-)
@FD1000 - Your choice is not easier for m…
Worth reading: https://nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/26/magazine/stock-market-coronavirus-pandemic.html
The last paragraph says "Perhaps one lesson this crisis can reinforce is that we should stop thinking of the stock market as a barometer of nat…
Sorry, Jeremy Grantham was wrong so many times since 2010 that it's not even funny but sad.
He predicted at the end of 2010 that US stocks will lag EM but he also was way, way off about several categories performance.
Example: he said that US will …
Never, ever do anything based on predictions. Below are several predictions by "experts".
1) Interest rates can only go up by many "experts".
2) The 10 year treasury rate will be at 6% (link) by Gundluch, the bond "king".
3) EM stocks must outpe…
@FD100
you may have told us before but how do you avoid redemption fees on some of these funds?
Congratulations on establishing your system that seems to work almost all the time. How much work does it take to evaluate incoming data daily or hourl…
As I said several times before I don't follow any of these but my own rules which I started years ago preparing for retirement. Since 2018 I practiced stricter rules 1) 6+% average annually 2) SD under 3 3) never lose 3% from any last top 4) com…
Rising glidepath has a big advantage of not losing as much in the first critical years. So, even if all 3 (rising, declining, stagnant) glidepaths are similar I still prefer to start with a lower % in stocks.
