Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@mcmarasco
The problem right now is that we are at a certain bottom but it can get worse or better which is difficult to predict. VCFAX has at least 40% in investment-grade securitized bond but 22% in the lowest level = BBB which isn't good because…
More observations:
1. For 5 years DODFX is rated at 75-89 in its category.
DODGX lags the SP500 for 1-3-5-10-15 years which is a blended index not growth or value. But Wait...DODGX also lags VTV(value ETF) for 1-3-5-10-15 years
2. If you read DO…
D&C have good funds but many of them are riskier and it shows at market stress such as 2008 and many times when stocks go down and 2020 is no different
For YTD
Allocation DODBX -23.4...PRWCX -16.2...JABAX -13.1
Mostly US LC: DODGX -32.1...…
I think the simple, index, high quality bond fund like VBTLX worked fine and as expected in this black swan, after all, it's up 3.6% YTD. Even VBIIX about 50/50 Gov/Corp IG bonds worked too at 3% YTD
Remember, Bogle believed in SP500 + US total bond…
I usually do lots of research but this market volatility and unpredictability are extremly high.
3 good funds for you TGLMX,VFIIX,ANBEX
TGLMX VS VFIIX
1) VFIIX bonds rating are higher. Both heavily in MBS.
2) VFIIX duration=2.3 is much lower tha…
Trump declared that breathing is good for you.
What the Dems are going to do?
Cry for another 4 years?
Open more investigations?
Trump just exposes politicians of both sides at their own games, he is rude, not apologetic and it drives the Dems and t…
What a whopping day is was in HY Munis where many funds lost 0.8-1%
I sold everything again and now at 99+% in Gov MM.
Basically, I gave back about 50% of what I made last week. Life goes on :-)
Don't know what happened to Munis today but this (l…
@msf
Last week I called Fidelity and Schwab reps and both told me the following...this is from Schwab "All Schwab Money Funds with the exception of Schwab Government Money Fund, Schwab U.S. Treasury Money Fund, Schwab Treasury Obligations Money Fund…
I have been looking for a reliable trading system for many years. I ran hundreds of scenarios, mostly technical analysis. I wanted to find something easy, if you use too many indicators it's too complicated. You also don't want too many trades. I…
I disagree ;-)
Sorry to say but Fauci answers sometimes are semi-political and vague, he just can't answer straight and it takes him so long to be direct and on point. On one TV channel is says one thing and 30 minutes later another, if the interv…
@Charles
I agree with your assessments. I also think that non-agency RMBS/CMBC/other will come around in several months(maybe weeks) and where I will start buying again.
The question is do I want to be in funds with mostly securitized (IOFIX,EIXIX…
The rates that you see on Muni MM (3-4%) are just the results of the last several days/weeks. You will not get anything close to it and they will revert back to 1-1.5% and lower than prime MM. If Muni MM could give you even 2-2.5% performance all t…
@Art
I'm investing in HY munis in my IRAs too. Schwab lets you do it after you acknowledge their warning. Fidelity would not let you do with most/all mutual funds (I checked dozens).
As a trader, I invest where I can make the most and I have used H…
PTIMX YTD=0.1%....BMBSX YTD=0.5% and its bond rating is much higher.
For 1-3 years PTIMX has better performance.
It depends on what you try to achieve.
I think you missed my main point. If you use his services he has 3 portfolios for you to select from, the funds/ETF/CEFs/whatever in each and all the trades he does. So yes, you do know his portfolios in detail.
Going to cash with these portfolio…
The guy who writes these articles is a very good CEFs analyst and sells his services. I love his writings and their depth. Late last year he was posting his portfolio results several times and how they did much better per risk/reward than stocks.
T…
It was a quick unique black swan. The last one, 2008-9, was slower. The hard part, the next one can be years from now and you would invest based on the last fiasco. Many would buy US bond index or treasuries just to see an average annual return o…
We all have a different style and goals so it's difficult to recommend but look at my first post. I usually don't invest in a "pure" Muni but in HY munis to get more performance but it's riskier too.
HY Munis
• PHMIX
• NHMAX
• MMHAX
• OPTAX
• ORNAX…
Usually, but not always. Index funds, especially bond index funds, are also managed, though perhaps not in the way you are thinking.
A long narrative about nothing. We are talking about US tot bond index. The following 3 different funds from 3 dif…
The following is a test I do every time for buy/sell/hold. Suppose I have 100% in cash now and want to invest, what are my best 2-3 mutual funds ideas?
The answer is what I do! The past is dead for me.
or another way to look at it is by using a…
I think right now Munis would be my highest bond conviction asset and why I'm invested in them in at a very high %. There was a lot of carnage but the Fed is supporting treasuries and Munis.
I don't want to be in treasuries which relate to rates
…
I'm not in a hurry to buy any stocks because 1) we are in a bear market 2) VIX > 60 is still very high 3) We got the bounce we expected 4) usually, bear markets don't end with a V shape recovery and why I expect stocks to fall back.
But, I th…
It's more than that, to an extent; if you graph AGG since the first week of March against DODIX, FTBFX, also BOND and BND, you see that only the last comes close to matching it (and for longer periods also, and forget anything Pimco now except maybe…
I track our portfolio for years. I use Fidelity FULL VIEW and/or Schwab(it shows up automatically). You need to link each account/broker. And no, I'm not scared my info will be abused. This way I see the aggregate amount per fund across all acco…
This excerpt seemed worth noting:
My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio in mid-February has now become a 51/49 portfolio, entirely on the basis of market action. This is very large drift in a very short time. Gi…
I "love" the conclusion My conclusion from all these indicators is that, unless we are heading into another Great Depression (unlikely in my view with $4 trillion of helicopter money on the way), these extremely negative breadth readings are more co…
THOPX?
Nothing special about this fund. It went down just like many others. According to M* It's duration=1.6 is shorter than most and it's in 90+% IG bond rating but over 80% is invested in Corp+MBS bonds.
The securitized saga isn't over. VCFAX -3.1...SEMMX -2.95...ANGLX -1.4...DHEAX -2.25. DHEAX is even more unique with 80+% in IG rating bonds. VCFAX is about 50/50 IG/below IG. Slowly but surely they are going down.
So far, the traditional, vanilla bond funds (MWTRX, VCORX) have mostly held up a hell of a lot better than the "nontraditional" ones that were supposed to do fancy stuff to keep investors safe.
Of course, it did at a time of a major meltdown when si…
ANGLX joined the party of "LOW SD SECURITIZED" category when it lost -3.6% today. From the high(or pretty close to it) on March 4th, SEMMX lost 16+%...ANGLX 14+%...VCFAX close to 14%....IOFIX over 42%...DPFNX 19%...DHEAX 8.5...PMZIX 17%...BDKAX ov…
Charles,
I don't watch charts daily where I make my decisions. I do see prices daily because every night around 6:30-7 PM I see my total portfolio updates (Both Fidelity and Schwab allow you to aggregate all funds/accounts from several brokers.
Once…
Yep, in a real meltdown like 2008 and 2020, correlation goes much higher. CEFs actually lost a lot more. Funds with extra risk such as NHMAX+IOFIX lost more than similar funds.
In the above situation, treasuries do best. Remember Bogle 2 simple i…
I had several hundred thousand in IOFIX but I sold most of it on Feb 28 and all on March 9. That was based on the fact that stocks are crashing + bonds don't behave rationally to rate drop + even treasuries didn't act on rates properly every day + t…
Have we ever had a case where both stocks and bonds are in the toilet at the same time, like this? Even if monthly divs from my bond funds diminish, it's still something to depend on, while we all slide and get nicked and cut along this razor blade …
