Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Categories are another imperfect subject. While SP500 is LC blend, managed/flexible funds are not. I stopped paying attention to M* a long time ago, especially when I'm looking for unique funds.
A true story: several months ago, my screener found a …
The number of accounts is an excuse. I have 10 accounts(2 brokerages, each with Roth, Rollover for my wife and me + joint/taxable account), but still only 2 funds. Yes, I buy one fund for several accounts. When I used to have 401K, it was usually al…
Fidelity screener should be good for 93.567+% of investors. Schwab has more funds, let's give it 95.25%. Both have many criteria to select from. That looks like a good solution for a little imperfection.
If I can't buy a fund at Schwab or Fidelity …
I could never understand why anyone has more than 7-8 funds (they are usually the ones who say, there is no right number). You go over 10 funds and you are over-diversified.
What usually happens with over 10 funds? you are not sure and/or you have …
I have been trading a big % since 2000 of at least 20% until retirement.
Since retirement in 2018 and only 2-3 funds (they are not at equal %), every trade is at least 30%, and most are at 40-50%. Changes under 10% have minimal effect, and under 5…
Yep, as I predicted, RPHIX has a good chance to do better since the Fed blinked on Nov 1st and later even more in mid-Dec. It means rates have stabilized. It made about 1.5% since 1/1/2023 and much better than MM/CD.
RPHIX is the "best" risk/reward …
For 2024 I would go with RSIIX. The main reason: per M* TTM yield is 8.6% for RSIIX vs 5.5% for OSTIX. Yield is more of a "sure" thing, after all, if both only have the yield and not appreciation, RSIIX has 3% more yield.
If I want better performan…
https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/what-are-fund-flows-why-do-they-matter
Quote: "Are Fund Flows a Reliable Investment Indicator? As it turns out, interpreting fund flows and their relationship with performance isn't cut and dry, and tren…
The last 3 months of the year tend to be the best in the last 5-10-15 years: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=SPY and extend to 5-10-15 years (use the bar below the chart).
looking at a chart since 1-1-2018 (https://schrts.co/ABHTItFS), you can clearly see that RSIVX is a better risk/reward fund. I don't know what happened in 03/2020 but RSIVX had better volatility in other times. If you look at both since 1-1-2018 usi…
Well, Steve Jobs had a huge ego and was one of the worst managers in (SV)Silicon Valley. His demands of his employees were ridiculous and if they couldn't come up with an idea, he would fire them, and then he would all the IT companies in SV and wou…
Linette Lopez has been trashing Musk for years, see example(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl6oWXUCrLg)...read the comments below the video...mmm...do you think she has an agenda?
FMSDX is not a bond fund. It's a multi-asset fund (allocation would be fine too). According to the Fidelity site(https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/31638R717) is has 29.29% equities. No need to look further.
2023 has been a d…
The Fed chair blinked on Nov 1st. Today he did it more convincingly hinting about 3 cuts. Most likely, bonds will continue doing better in 2024.
A chart (https://schrts.co/uiIcBzeV)of ORNAX(HY Muni),DODIX(high-rated bonds) shows that ORNAX has to ma…
Old_joe,
You can invest as you wish, I never said that CD or TR are bad or I will never invest in them.
I know 3 investors with millions, one has over 90% in Munis + 10% stocks, the second has over 90% in stocks, the third has 50% in MSFT, all have…
Already explained the WTF portfolio. If you need less than 3%(2.5% is...I need under 2%) annual withdrawal, then you can do whatever.
Someone who doesn't have enough must take a lot more risk than the above.
I always found better ST trade in bond O…
hankPortfolio risk late in retirement? It’s a personal matter, I think, based more on temperament than anything else. If you still don’t have “enough” to survive on for the rest of your life when you reach 75 - 85 may God help you
Unfortunately, mo…
Add 1% annually. Usually, by age 75 you can start taking more risk.
WTF portfolio is when someone needs under 3% (2.5% is better) withdrawal annually from their portfolio. In that case they can have 20/80 to 80/20 mix of stock/bonds.
The portfolio s…
After I read many of these papers, I liked the idea of FLEXIBILITY which is what I have been practicing during the accumulation phase.
It also depends on how big is your portfolio.
- If you don't have enough, you don't have a choice but to own a hig…
A bond trader doesn't care what happened, only how to make money in the future.
Examples
PIMIX made 8-10% for several years with low SD.
IOFIX fell 45% in 03/2020, but after that it exploded 40-50%.
Cat bonds did not make much in previous years but …
Momo investing has done great since 1995.
1995-2000: US LC tilting growth did great(https://schrts.co/eYUxufSw) SPY,VWUSX made 247%,266% and musch more than VWIGX(International).
2000-2010: XLE(energy), IWM(SC), VWIGX(International) made more than …
I started a huge position several months ago in CBYYX and emailed someone on this thread. Finder did an excellent job presenting this data already. I found https://www.artemis.bm/ as well and used it as my guide. On that site, you can find an explan…
Bloomberg have been reporting about the house crisis for months now.
https://www.google.com/search?q=bloomberg+magazine+no+rooms+for+first-time+buyers&oq=bloomberg+magazine+no+rooms+for+first-time+buyers&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQL…
The economy under Trump got worse because of covid.
Was Krugman as harsh about the high inflation under Biden? no. BTW, he was wrong about it anyway (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/21/opinion/paul-krugman-inflation.html)
Would he be harsh if it w…
The price of food and gas is not the big problem because housings and total expense on vehicles is a much bigger portion of someone expenses. Buying a house in many cases it at least 50% more than 3-4 years ago because prices are 30% up + mortgage r…
msf
In case you consider my arithmetic suspect, the same BLS table gives figures in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars:
4th Quarter, 2019 - $362
3rd Quarter, 2023 - $365
===============
FD: good catch, I would start from Q1/2020 to Q3/2023 beginn…
Big items went up.
House are about 30% more expensive (https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor)
Vehicles are 30+% more expensive since 2020. Many categories went up 20+%(https://ww…
>> My kids had several accidents and 3 totals
jesus
good that allstate and amica still talk to you
By that time the kids grew up, and left our house. My wife and I have had an excellent driving record.
Liberty has been at the bottom rati…
Heard a bit about AMICA for insurance. Comments?
Amica has been rated by Consumer Report as the best insurance for decades now. I tried them several times. We have 3 insurance products auto, home, and umbrella and I need one company to handle all o…
@FD1000, way to go digging those. @Baseball_Fan: Great term "confidently wrong"! I love it!
Mr. G isn't the only "expert" that has been wrong but still keep predicting. I collected over the years many of these for other experts.
Why would anyone pr…
I said the following on another forum starting on Nov 1.
==============
In other threads I said to start looking to get into the market in October and wait for the entrance.
SPY had a ST+mid term signal buy
VIX is down
Other stuff looks better too.…