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FD1000

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FD1000
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  • Anybody who is in the prediction business must be wrong. Here are a list of some famous "experts" Bogle, GMO, Arnott, Gundlach, Shiller Others, PE, PE10=CAPE, inverted yield, overvalue, the sky is falling every other week. KISS for most: know your…
  • fd1k, again, you really should do this for a living for others and not bother poasting Why would I bother working? After you have enough, why have a schedule, customers and bosses. My grandson says "grandpa is retired, he plays all day"...he nail…
  • Sure, stillers(=alb..) the usual, your posts are out of context. Do I invest based on duration? I sure do post lots of info with my monthly info but my style for years is still based mainly on momentum + smoother ride. But I also post generic answ…
  • msf: "In short, you're conflating fund "purity" with fund type. There's little special about treasuries, and nothing that you've identified." wow, I'm "impressed". I have done the following a few times. I looked at treasuries rate changes when it w…
  • msf, nice try. I never said :In comparison, duration is inaccurate with any other type of bond". I sais "Many/Most bond funds have several bond categories that behave differently, some use derivatives which complicate things even more. Managed fun…
  • 3 examples: Let me know how you can predict PIMIX movements based on its duration. DODIX is simpler, but the managers can still change within category. Imagine they reduce treasuries % and raised Corp. Even a simple fund such as VBTLX wouldn't be…
  • Duration is a lot more accurate with treasuries. Many/Most bond funds have several bond categories that behave differently, some use derivatives which complicate things even more. Managed funds can also change their bond mix which affect performance…
  • I follow this rule over 20 years and I have done great. I never invest based on prediction or pat attention to them, I invest based on what happened lately, and it never disappointed me. The market tells me what works and what doesn't and why I men…
  • I have read so many inflation/rate scary stories in the last several weeks. Let me know when inflation is high (over 3%) for several months. Inflation will be higher in the next 2-4 months on annual basis because they compare it to the same month …
  • This gets regurgitated multiple times a year....must be whenever there is excess “volatility” (which of course is “bad” when it’s to the downside, right?)....doesn’t make it any less true, and maybe that’s why it needs to be repeated ad nauseum? I s…
  • Every time I see a new thread about bonds I smile. Yes, I'm the exception and have done it for years. I retired in 2018, we need only 4% (maybe less) including inflation to keep our living standard for the next several decades. I still want to mak…
  • While HY Munis are up this year...NVHAX 2.5%...NHMAX 2% Many bond funds are down...PTIAX -1.4%...PRSNX -0.95%...DODIX -2.7%...BND(Tot index) -4%
  • Is there a Bond Fund that Shorts Bonds? I know a bond fund that is up several % year to date + partially doing short + have a nice 3 years returns. why-world-would-you-own-bonds-ray-dalio? Because many retires that have enough don't want to have t…
  • Short-Duration HY Munis Remain Attractive Options For Rising Rates Summary - Rising rates remain top-of-mind for income investors due to their ability to deliver portfolio losses. - The short-duration high-yield tax-exempt municipal sector remain…
  • MWFSX performance continues to lag and relates to lower daily distributions. Its performance for 1-4-12 weeks per M* Multi category is 85-97-88. Basically, it's in the bottom 15%-3%-12%. The last several distributions are: As of Date Ticker Dividen…
  • Perspective. Rates are up a lot YTD(year-to-date) and... VFIAX (=SP500)...YTD=2.6%...1 year=29.3%...3 year=14.3% It's pretty known for months already that value is finally doing better. YTD SCHD=9.4% The usual, the stock market fluctuates, the r…
  • I have owned IOFIX for several years but also traded it several times at Fidelity and Schwab. I checked my 1099-DIV for 2018,2019 Nondividend Distributions and they were at zero. To tell you the truth, I really don't care, I just copy all these num…
  • I "love" Grantham/GMO predictions 12/31/2020 (link) 7 year prediction were: US LC will make 0.4% + 2.5% = 2.9% annually. EM will make 4.1%+2.5% inflation=6.6%. The real results(link) show SPY=13.65 annually EEM=1.9% annually 2012(link): "Jeremy …
  • If you are a trader like me and watch momentum you switch. I held PIMIX for about 7 years. I also watch very high risk and why I sold prior to the meltdown last March(link) and bought after it. It's also pretty obvious from my table above that PIMIX…
  • I said several times in the past, PIMIX was a great fund until 01/2018 when I sold it after holding for several years. Since 01/2018 it's still a good fund but performance ranks only at the top 44% according to M*. Past performance is important bu…
  • Also, @FD1000 might better explain SVARX (ER around 3%). This is mainly a fund of funds. In their top 5 holdings they have IOFIX+BDKNX both expense ratio about 1.5%. Then they use leverage, and they still want to make money. The only explanation tha…
  • GMO should hide in the closet. Their predictions since 2010 are so off the mark. In 12/31/2010, they predicted that US LC would make 2.9%, the SP500 made over 14% in the next 7 years. They said that EM would be better and they trail by a huge marg…
  • PRWCX is one of the best risk/reward moderate allocation funds in the last 5-10-20 years. VWIAX is one of the best risk/reward conservative allocation funds in the last 5-10-20 years. PIMIX is one of the best Multi sector bond funds 2008-2018. So,…
  • Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist was obviously wrong (2016)
  • his $60 stake in the video game retailer grew to $3,200 Unfortunately the 10 shares are worth about $1100 now
  • The VIX shot up to over 37 yesterday but today it was back to under 30. That's why I'm not a robot and did nothing. VIX is only one main thing I'm looking at, I also look at the big picture and try to understand why/what. The people who buy when VI…
  • I would like to know how I can find out how much leverage is used in a fund. I use the Schwab platform. Tkx! It's being delved into here: https://armchairinvesting.freeforums.net/thread/733/introducing-svarx The above will not show you how much a…
  • FD takes EVERYTHING personally. I just pointed out the FACTS about his posts on this topic. He "Introduced" this fund to the world (sic) on two forums recently BUT had to be informed by other posters that it was highly leveraged. Read this ful…
  • Same posters, same distractions for years, nothing new. Expect it to continue. BT2020 or BigTom have been following my posts for years over 3 different sites where he tries to find anything(even one word) wrong and/or one number out of order and cl…
  • @BT2020:But go ahead and keep pushing highly leveraged and/or non-liquid funds... So what's next? Are you going to start pushing 2x and 3x leveraged funds like Profunds & Direxion too? BT maybe a previous poster by another name(BigTom)? Why not …
  • The April 2020 quarterly newsletter describes the SVARX active management approach over the preceding two years. The chart provides a good visual description. Scroll down to the Active Management section of the newsletter. (Reviewing the 12/31/19…
  • BT2020: What FD is missing here is the leverage is HIGHER now then earlier in the year. With HIGHER leverage and the corresponding INCREASE in treasury rates, interest costs and the associated risk for the leverage has increased then earlier in th…
  • Don’t forget the most important part of the fund. The 49% leverage and the huge position in swaps. With the recent spike in the 10 year and if the rise in interest rates continues, the higher borrowing costs will be detrimental to this funds huge po…
  • Apple is a "blend—a blue chip stock with its heady growth days in the past"
  • I held FAIRX with 2 other funds (OAKBX,SGENX) for about 8-9 years from 2000 to 2010. I held FAIRX for about 8 years and OAKBX,SGENX about 9 years. It's part of my system of finding good risk/reward funds until they don't keep up and sell them. Simi…
  • LewisBraham, it's pretty funny to read your comments. Your conclusions are so one-sided, GOP are all bad, Dems are good. Obama foreign policy was a disaster and a direct cause to ISIS, he couldn't even handle ISIS until Trump did. When I say "The …
  • Any war follows by many sad stories. Let's think what would be the reverse. Muslim win, Israel lose. How about killing thousands, raping women, taking over everything...basically hell. They have done it to Christians, Jews and other Muslims too. …
  • The usual, no response to any of my questions. No response to the evil in the Middle East. Let me guess, you know if one day you visit one of these Muslims countries, it may be very inconvenient for you. All I did was post about a good thing of a …
  • Well LewisBraham, Israel is the only county that will accept Jews when things will get really bad. We already have a proof of what happened to Jews in the last 2 thousand years. It happened again in France several years back and thousands immigrat…
  • I "love" opinions from people that never lived in the Middle East and don't understand the nuances, especially Americans who live in a huge country and so far from the enemy while Israel is a tiny country with just several millions surrounded by a b…