Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
There are only far and a few star managers, these managers do well in most markets for 1-2 decades and are flexible enough to change. The first that comes to mind is Giroux managing PRWCX.
A reasonable way is to invest in top-performing categories/f…
From the article:
"As discussed in our 1Q23 letter, capital flows favor assets with the highest risk-adjusted returns. Investors that have been large buyers of investment grade CLO debt are now able to earn significantly better yields in newly issue…
The SP500 is the most recognized index that represents stocks and over decades it has done better than most other stocks, including thousands of managed funds and professional managers that worked very hard to beat it.
Diversifying did not help much…
Point taken @FD1000. You have said that your timing method isn't for everyone. That is true. And you have said that most should be diversified. But that begs the question, why do you keep posting about your system and trumpeting the great results yo…
Some really good discussion here. A couple comments:
@FD1000, So, just my opinion, good timing/trading is the only choice IF you can do it.
You are always self promoting this option. Fact is, 90% of every-day investors that try timing methods actua…
From January 2022 round table
Rupal Bhansali: US stocks to correct, favors EM. (FD: So far wrong)
Ellenbogen: fundamental stock picking is going to take hold. I expect the first half year to be down (FD: wrong on both, SPY did great).
Giroux: big te…
Charles Lynn Bolin does an excellent job explaining risk/volatility/unique funds and how to build a portfolio. If you pay attention, it's not static, his view keeps changing because markets keep changing. See below 2 good examples:
https://www.mutua…
"It’s about being able to stay near fully invested - even at an advanced age - and doing better than you would if parked 100% in cash (or cash-like investments)"
You are now going to the other extreme of only cash. There is a lot going on between 0…
I understand DSENX because Doubleline explains it very well.
In the last several years, PIMIX managers also used higher leverage (and the ER was much higher). It all boils down to the fact that PIMIX is more of a black box where I don't know what …
I have spent years looking for hedging, and shorting funds, starting with AQR. I could not find any consistent fund that can do it. A fund can work for several years and then stop working for other years.
My conclusion is that the only thing that wo…
JHQAX sounds good in theory. SPY suffered about 20% fall in Q4/2018 + lost over 30% in 03/2020 and over 20% in 2022....but SPY made almost twice as much as JHQAX.
Chart (https://schrts.co/mEAddMPX)
@msf
href="https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/tmsrx/portfolio">per M*? A mere trifle. PIMIX / PONAX, a fund lauded here, has129% in fixed income shorts (net 188% long), and has 222% in cash shorts (net 89% short) suggesting a lot of lever…
TRAIX @ Schwab. This discussion got me curious if this fund could be purchased at Schwab. I went to trade mutual fund and put in the symbol. To my surprise it told me that fund required a $1.00 minimum and no transaction charge. When I tried to bu…
@FD1000 I have been reading that you are a proponent of 3-line break. What is it telling you today regarding ORNAX and NHMAX? Please don't come back in three weeks and tell us what it told you on 7-14-23.
mmm...so you want to learn but over the yea…
@FD1000 I have been reading that you are a proponent of 3-line break. What is it telling you today regarding ORNAX and NHMAX? Please don't come back in three weeks and tell us what it told you on 7-14-23.
mmm...so you want to learn but over the yea…
Yep, we have discussed PIMIX for years. It's difficult to know exactly what they do at any given time. I used to own a lot of it prior to 01/2018.
But perform Percentile Rank in its category is...1+3 year=20-22...5 years=15. Not too shabby for AUM…
@FD1000 I have been reading that you are a proponent of 3-line break. What is it telling you today regarding ORNAX and NHMAX? Please don't come back in three weeks and tell us what it told you on 7-14-23.
mmm...so you want to learn but over the year…
Hank, thank you for deleting part of your previous post. There is not a "pure" definition of bond funds and you know it. Use your judgement.
Let's look at BAMBX "Strategy: The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a range o…
Hank
This thread is about "Anybody Investing in bond funds?"
Please post about bonds since we have more threads about stocks/allocation/multi-strategy.
My calls are based on what I see in the markets. The Fed have been raising rates aggressively. T…
FAFRX (bank loan) continues to do well YTD. Other good ones are GIFIX, then FFRHX. The first two funds...YTD>7%...one year>10-11%...3 year>19-21%. All 3 funds SD is about 4.2.
But that's not all, compare this to PRCPX+TUHYX and you can se…
For me, Dan Ivascyn is the most crucial for me to understand bonds and what to do. For many years, Dan Ivascyn has been saying the same thing which is "I can still find opportunities in MBS that I like".
FAFRX (bank loan) continues to do well YTD. Other good ones are GIFIX, then FFRHX. The first two funds...YTD>7%...one year>10-11%...3 year>19-21%. All 3 funds SD is about 4.2.
But that's not all, compare this to PRCPX+TUHYX and you can se…
LB "your repeating qualified subjective statements regarding what’s most important to people economically over and over again doesn’t make them true."
FD said "The 2 biggest items for most people are housing and transportation."
Most people spend t…
The 2 biggest items for most people are housing and transportation. They increase 40+% and vehicles are up 30+% since 01/2020. Do you know many who got a 30% salary increase?
Are most better off now than four years ago? the answer is clear, it's…
@FD. I agree that folks with pensions and those who don’t are facing entirely different retirements. But I disagree with your second statement. If I had a pension ( and I don’t) I would have less reason to have “ a higher % in stocks.” Given a s…
The world is divided to have a pension and don't have a pension. These are 2 different worlds. The more pension you have, and the more it covers someone's expenses, the higher % in stocks someone can have.
Roy, the nice thing about investing is the fact that very seldom you can find exceptional funds which defy common concepts such as low expense + index do best over a longer time.
PRWCX is one of them. In the past I used PIMIX(2010-2017), SGIIX,OAKBX…
More buyers than sellers always drive prices higher. Other reasons are not always true.
Over the years many analysts were wrong in trying to predict FUTURE performance based on earnings, valuation, fundamentals, the economy, inverted yield, inflatio…
According to M*
AUM=96.6 million
Performance YTD in category Percentile Rank = 79 and lagging. One year is in the top 10, not bad.
I would use a generic fund like DODIX.
As Trader, I can find much better options but none are in the Intermediate C…
LB, I already read the article the first time. The economy was great until covid arrived.
Can you deny that Trump had the biggest increase in real wages since 1980 or the other fact that houses and vehicles which are usually the biggest 2 items are…
The final numbers are after covid started. The whole world economy collapsed. That was a black swan. Everything has a context.
The easiest way to measure success is effordability. The 2 biggest items to purchase are homes and vehicles. I will check …
Real wages are still higher than they were in three out of the four years of the previous administration prior to the Covid outbreak, and it's false to say every month. They just started to rise this year:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES125…
I "love" Bofa predictions. See what they said on 12/28/2022 (https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-volatility-2023-investing-strategy-sp500-bank-america-subramanian-2022-12)
Bofa recomendations were:
1) Subramanian said she sees stocks going…
According to LCORX's Fact Sheet, its investment objective is: "Capital appreciation and income while maintaining prudence in terms of managing exposure to risk. Investment guidelines are 30%-70% equity exposure and 30%-70% fixed income." What is the…
LCORX?
I have been recommending PRWCX easily over 10 years. It's one of the best allocation funds of all time. Yes, I know, it's a flexible go-anywhere fund.
Since the inception of LCORX...LCORX made 695% while PRWCX made "only" 1453.8%(more than d…
