Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@davidmoran,
There are reasons why American above age 62 may not be able to work.
A lot of people can't afford to wait to sign up for Social Security. Consider that most Americans have not saved enough for retirement.
"The biggest challenge for mo…
@MikeM.
I couldn't agree more. Everything is uniquely situational, but a person who is waiting until age 70 (to collect SS) will more than likely continue working (through their 60's). That is why running your own numbers is so important.
Thanks @…
@Crash, Thanks, but actually I can't collect SS. Even with a SS record I am impacted by WEP:
https://ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/wep.html
But for those thinking that waiting until 70 is some how the holy grail of SS strategies this seems a…
@hank,
I took this interview quite differently...maybe naively so. It didn't feel to me like a message of doom and gloom as you suggest.
I didn't see this as a discussion about threats, but more an understanding of systems and that creative destruc…
@hank,
I believe you are a holder of PRPFX...a worthy all weather portfolio... that is better explained here:
https://optimizedportfolio.com/permanent-portfolio/
Using PRPFX's components as a guide (YTD):
Comparing PRPFX against its components T…
@ hank,
I came across this review tool and I selected RPGAX to review. Finny is a subscription service but I have been able to review individual funds for free once a day. See if it opens for you.
https://askfinny.com/posts/mutf-rpgax-stock-review
Interview with Jeffery Gundlach:
Nov 2020
The Value of Investing Mistakes
Time Horizon
Concentrated Bets
Risk Management
Beta Trades are rare and requires raising funds for such situations
His outlook for the next 18 months ahead from Nov 2020:…
FSRPX and FSMEX paid capital gains 4/9/21. I did finally see it posted on Fidelity's website. I'll check out M* thanks @DaveSch...good stuff...that worked:
@msf said,
You don't want more money in the HSAs than you can withdraw tax-free (not enough medical expenses). Keep the faster growing assets in the genuine Roth IRAs.
An HSA can be inherited by a spouse...maybe the term is rolled into a spouse's …
Is there a website that allows one to enter a mutual fund to get capital gain information? I noticed two funds I own distributed CG recently (April 9, 2021).
Embedded in this link is an interesting take on gold and what the author refers to a the "natural interest rate":
What to Make of Gold’s Slide?
crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2021/04/cws-market-review-april-9-2021.html
The Natural Rate of Intere…
April 10th Episode:
Time in the market verses timing the market...
Time in the market is the best way to reduce risk and insure success for the average investor, not day trading.
Valuation of markets (stocks/bonds) matters. Earnings need to ke…
Whether gold mining or crypto-mining both will have push back from the green economy. Both are unfriendly to the environment.
https://medium.com/crypto-lucid/gold-is-now-a-green-bitcoin-d12c439cca0f
My response that @davidmoran article (above link) posted here:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58025/q-a-bucket-strategies-in-retirement#latest
@davidmoran,
Author seems to dismiss the US market going forward...not sure that's fair. Do Italians invest in merely Italian stocks? That would be like US investors investing in one US state's stocks. The US market is global in it's footprint...no…
Here a chart that adjusts interest rates of the 10 yr treasury from core inflation. Even though both interest rates and inflation are at a very low level right now, I am under the impression that it is the rate of change (how quickly / slowly) that …
From the above report I highlight this page which appears to help investors back test asset allocations with regard to (4) different inflation scenarios. Seems worth studying...discussing.
If Inflation rises quickly and to higher levels (upper righ…
@LewisBraham, I took the author's "100%" to mean invested , not specifically invested "100% in stocks".
"100% invested at ones' asset allocation level" might be a better way to phrase it.
For Warren Buffet's wife that would be 90% S&P 500 an…
As the article points out, a younger investor might comfortably remain invested 100% of the time (10 of more years away from retirement).
Using Portfolio Visualizer one can back test balance funds such as VBINX or FBALX and analyze their 3 & 5…
The stock market is in a very healthy place right now. 93% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average right now. The last time you saw a reading this high was 2013.
My take: We don't appear to be in sell off mode, instea…
The votes on whether to form a union at Amazon.com Inc’s sprawling Alabama fulfillment center are set to be reviewed starting on Tuesday, with momentum for future labor organizing at America’s second-largest private employer hanging in the balance.
…
March 27th Episode:
Bank the Banks
Rotate away from Growth
Rotate into Value
Emerging Market Value
2019 MFO Review:
emerging-market-value-investing-revisited
From @hanks, TRP link:
Given this expected shift, we believe investments that could potentially benefit from higher inflation may add value to an investor’s portfolio. These assets typically include value, small-cap, and emerging markets equities; w…
Honestly you both make good points.
Aside from that... this ETF seems no different than other Tech / Comm Service Funds. Most may even be a bigger target of your legitimate criticisms. I'm glad that the two of you recognize we have compromised on …
Ok...I'll take a shot at this. We build a lock around the ship...raise the water level...and get the "hull" out of there...or what hank thought I said.
Good read:
AquaticIllinoisRiverNavigation
I have not sold off a large FRIFX holding yet, but it provides no real diversity, its steadiness insufficient last March.
I agree... Draw down - peak to valley (Feb-Mar 2020) was almost 27%.
@Mark,
Patience has paid off with POAGX this past year. Three year (2018-2020) performance was average to awful, but much better since March 2020. It has required a long term approach which I continue to have.
I guess what I mean by "steady eddy…
Do Stock hold up during periods of rising rates? I appears more often than not.
Inflation is far more important to stocks than interest rate levels.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/inflation-matters-more-for-the-stock-market-than-interes…
Josh Brown Piece:
On the economic and investment side, the quants at BofA are thinking that... over 60% of the bank’s analysts see rising prices in their respective coverage universe. One of BofA’s top strategists, Michael Hartnett, is talking about…
March 20th Episode:
Notes:
Cyclical Sectors:
Energy
Industrials
Materials
Commodities
Regional Banks
Small Cap Equities
Emerging Markets
Related articles:
types-of-stocks/cyclical-stocks
jpmorgan-on-cyclical-defensive-and-tech-stocks-amid-infla…
