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rjb112
Well thanks for all your great instruction and telling me about it.
Point being, forecasts are just that: forecasts
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http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/10/if-you-are-reading-this-the-world-has-not-ended/?utm_source=The+Big+Picture+Updates&utm_campaign=9ac0a49bb5-big_picture_email&utm_medium=ema…
@hank....
"Re "Stuff happens". Thanks Mark. Of course you are correct. And I've wanted to link a clip related to that ever since a prominent political figure (unfortunately I think) voiced the term a few days ago."
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Hysterical clip hank, thanks…
Did they buy the whole enchilada? I thought they only bought a 20% stake in First Eagle. That would be similar to Oaktree's ~20% stake in DoubleLine (which has been quite lucrative for them).
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/07/blackstone-corsair-capit…
was at 27.1 on oct 1, 2014. Now I am at 22.8: meaning no pizzas, soda, chips, cookies, candies, and following mayo clinic diet modified for Indian menu. Lost 28 lbs. No BP/diabetes meds since 4 months. waist size 38 to 29 now
Congratulations on the …
@scott: yes, I'm quite familiar with the history of the fund, and Buffett closing down his partnerships and recommending the investors go with Bill Ruane. I was referring to any recent recommendations of SEQUX by Buffett.......say in the past 5 yea…
@little5bee: "I remember Warren Buffett singing the praises of SEQUX during the recession"
@scott: "I believe Buffett has recommended Sequoia as a Berkshire alternative for quite some time."
I've never seen or heard Buffett recommend SEQUX, and wo…
Yes, SEQUX does have 29% of its portfolio in Valeant. However, look at the great (relative to the market) YTD performance of SEQUX, which probably is mainly due to Valeant. And look at Valeant's great YTD performance of +33%.
I wouldn't say that …
"I plan to sell one of my funds and buy into another fund in the same category in IRA"
"What if any would you do in this scenario?"
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If I determine that I don't like my current fund and have found a fund I do like to replace it....then …
That's a very good point, PmU........do it when the costs are low, and also put people to work and stimulate the economy........that infrastructure work needs to be done, so why not now
"And in times of military conflict, it can be essential to have supplies of oil from our friends and allies"
It might be even more essential to be able to draw upon our so-called "strategic reserve". And what better time to fill that to the brim th…
davidmoran, as I mentioned, we do refine oil products, and that is a separate topic entirely.
I thought it was common knowledge that the US needs to import oil for our own use!
We do a good job of finding and extracting oil, but it's not enough to …
>> the main point is that we (the US) do not produce nearly enough oil to meet our needs, so we import oil for our use. That's been the case for as long as I can remember, and will continue to be the case.
davidmoran, if you study oil, yo…
"Whether the oil will for certain be used here, or sold abroad is frankly unclear"
PmU: the main point is that we (the US) do not produce nearly enough oil to meet our needs, so we import oil for our use. That's been the case for as long as I can …
The United States is a net importer of oil, and will be for very many years.
We can either import that oil from our friends, or from our enemies.
I'd rather get it from Canada than from some not so nice people elsewhere......
"As the oil would not be earmarked for the US........"
What makes you say this PmU?
Surely you are aware that the US is still a net importer of oil......
@bee posted: "The Robo service requires $50K and costs (.5%) and here's its portfolio"
@Sven posted: "Also which part if robo (algorithms driven) and which is human to justify the 0.5% fee?"
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just to clarify, the fee is 0.3%, not 0.…
"It's a can't lose business, because you get paid the same $3 million no matter what"
Correction: $30 million, not $3 million.
I guess I was thinking that $3 million is a lot of money to make in a year.....how about $30M?
Hmm.....I definitely wen…
So Ken Moraif is managing $3 billion.......
Hmm....average account size $500,000
My guess is that the fees on these $500,000 accounts is close to 1%.
So that is $30 million per year for managing money.
It's a can't lose business, because you get pa…
Another email received from Ken Moraif......I copied and pasted the email where he issued his sell signal on Friday.
"Money Matters is pleased to announce that Ken Moraif has been named by Barron’s for the fourth year in a row as one of the top 100…
But beware. Larry Swedroe’s tenth simple investment truth is that “The forecasts of market strategists and analysis have no value, except as entertainment”. That’s likely an overstatement, but it does capture some fundamental wisdom based on prac…
"That one is 14% of total. But is THAT number "true?" Aaaaarrrggghhh!"
Hi Crash,
Just take the dollar value of that one fund and divide it by the total dollar value of your entire portfolio.......[then multiply by 100 to get % weighting of the fun…
Ran across this video of Hasenstab from May that gives a fair glimpse into his thinking about both interest rates (e.g. having a negative duration in US - consistent with what David wrote) and currencies.
Not able to access that link.
Do you ha…
I share Old Joe's puzzlement over the GMO forecast that seems to decouple both Timber and Emerging Markets from US equity returns.
For example, correlation coefficients between US equity and Emerging Markets in the past have been as high as 0.8. …
"Suddenly, millions of small investors who were crowding into brokerage houses, spending the entire day there playing cards, trading stocks, eating noodles and cheering on the markets with other day traders and retirees, are feeling depressed and an…
For a true cash alternative, you can go with something like an internet only bank, such as:
https://www.synchronybank.com/banking/index.htm
It pays 1.05% for a savings account, and currently 2.25% on a 5-year CD.
Not great, but it beats getting pa…
I am confused by this statement in the linked report:
"There is a common misperception that holding a bond to maturity makes your portfolio immune to interest rate risk. The reality is, when rates rise, the total expected return from a bond is ident…
I urge all MFOers to become familiar with Monte Carlo tools.
MJG, for those of us who have not followed these conversations, would you be so kind as to reference the URLs where we can find the Monte Carlo tools that you recommend?
thanks