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HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PR…
Markets tend to surprise more often than not so in that vein a contrarian could make the case that stocks will be much higher (over 10%) over the next year. Likewise the most crowded of all trades - the race to negative rates in the U.S. - will ins…
I cut back on IOFIX because as mentioned before I am really spooked with what is going on with the yield curve and longer dated Treasuries. Albeit continued strength in the economy as evidenced by a widening yield curve should be a positive for I…
There has been a noticeable uptick in long bond yields recently and it continues today. With equities nearing all time highs and junk bonds at all time highs and investors all in on the negative rate scenario, I hope this blip up doesn’t become any…
@Junkster
R
I'm not sure where they're still finding non-agency debt trading at 70 cents on the dollar of par value today. One of their major competitors, Angel Oak, at the end of 2018 said they were buying at 86 cents on the dollar: https://angeloa…
You are correct, PV has 2 choices monthly or yearly performance. This means the -0.87 is per one whole month.
I looked carefully (I hope) and that day last Nov was the worse one day decline in 3 years, I found several more days with -0.6 to -0.8%
Y…
IOFIX 10.44% 2.69% 14.04% 3.49% -0.87% 3.16 13.47
@FD1000, you and Morningstar must have a different definition of maximum drawdown than me. -0.87% over the past three years?? I mean it declined 1.29% on just one day alone last November.
@junkster I was writing about funds back when those studies on new funds came out and a few things come to mind:
1. In the 1990s many new small cap and growth funds were launched that benefitted from extra IPO allocation to hot dot.com stocks like …
In a hurry to get out on the trails so don’t have time to check but regarding @BenWP’s thoughtful post above...... aside from IOFIX haven’t some of the AlphaCentric funds been dismal performers with one or two already liquidated?
@Junkster
Regarding the new fund effect: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1101615
I cite detailed studies in my book by the Charles Schwab Center for Investment Research and also by Kobren Insight Group on the validity of the new…
At the beginning of every mutual fund prospectus is generally a little seemingly innocuous sentence: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. So what if it's been hot in the past? The only question that matters to anyone reading this righ…
"... It attracted more capital in last quarter of 2017 than in the first six quarters of its existence. It ended the year with $1.6B, five times the level it started the year..."
Jeepers. Is that a lotta "dumb money," then? Thanks for replying, all …
FWIW saying, I'm receiving noticeably more investment-signal service solicitations these days, including from services I briefly dabbled with over 10 years ago and haven't heard from in AGES. The contrarian in me takes that as a warning sign for e…
It's not politics but trump will Loose this time for sure -13 points in most polls vs old joe/vp sanders (Dream team) .. 99%chance that Biden will win elections 2020
No need for recession
The accuracy of political polls ( Brexit and Trump) is ak…
@junkster Its my understanding you let market action fully guide your buy and sell decisions. But, I wonder if you care to speculate about the recent resilience of the high yield market. Do you see it as being mostly due to persistently low inter…
I have been reading about all the woes about to befall the junk bond market because of how levered companies are, the maturity wall, etc. for several years now. I would love to exploit it but the opportunity of a lifetime and most likely to never …
@junkster thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. I'll admit that I know very little about junk bonds so I always appreciate your inputs on this. Is there a good ETF to follow in order to track the overall performance of the junk bond market? …
After today junk bonds will be less than 1% from all time highs. Junk went to all times highs in early February and the S&P followed a few months later. After a brief decline in both markets junk again went to all time highs with the S@P follo…
After today junk bonds will be less than 1% from all time highs. Junk went to all times highs in early February and the S&P followed a few months later. After a brief decline in both markets junk again went to all time highs with the S@P follo…
@Charles has held this through thick and thin and that is the best way to play IOFIX - buy and hold. Anyone who hasn’t established a position it’s best to buy after a down day. Down days often occur a couple days before the second to last tradi…
+1.26%
Wow.
I suspect ... these lower rates have been great for RMBS.
Through July ...
https://www.screencast.com/t/CZ9CBwSJ
You missed our discussion last evening. It was the August effect. Be interesting to see today’s action considering h…
An experienced trader can always tell the frauds and Pretenders from the real deals. The Pretenders have this need to always prove their brilliance by never being wrong and never admitting mistakes. One way to do this is always post your winning…
There seems to be a lot of trepidation on many of the forums including MFO. Unless it is different this time, markets don’t top amid pessimism, apprehension, and caution.
Just adding more to my winners and selling my laggards in Bondville. Pretty much down to one fund (79%) and no secret what that is. A few odds and ends elsewhere mainly junk corporates. Looking forward to tomorrow and what the Fed does and says.
Junkster: what the heck happened? Must have been a woman (just kidding).
Good guess. I was without my high school sweetheart for much of the years. And I had never been above the Mason Dixon line before. Quite a culture shock. I knew what I …
Amen to that! I fully realize how college is a necessity for most specialized fields. But for me it was the absolute worst four years of my life. Of course there is a back story to that.
Interesting short read. I turn 70 in a few months. Based on my current health status and the life spans of my parents and grandparents, I currently have my investment time horizon set at 21 years. I would be 90 years old at that point. Its been …
I had been in VEMBX earlier in the year. But I also held PDIIX a multisector sector bond fund with a large exposure to emerging markets bonds ( as well as junk). I eventually sold VEMBX because I didn’t want the dual exposure to emerging markets. …
It has been an amazing year for bonds. So much so that MAINX lags iin its category (emerging markets bond) and in the 75th percentile. One of the best in that category over the past three years has been Vanguard’s VEMBX and it is up over 14% YTD.
Really sorry to hear this sad news about Slick. Hope she is now watching this board from a better place of bliss and serenity. Cancer is such an insidious disease.
Another nice day for IOFIX as it reaches yet another all time high. The ever dwindling legacy non agency rmbs market seems to still have life left in it and looking for a nice second half in 2019. Please close this fund!!
I was at Scottrade and now at TD Ameritrade after they took over Scottrade. I am beyond happy with TD and that is primarily because of their customer service. Scottrade was downright archaic compared to TD. For instance I can cancel and replace …
@MFO Members: Its not only junk bonds, I reasonably certain that PONCX along with other multisector bond funds will close at an all time high. I was right, PONCX closed at $12.13
Regards,
Ted
Lipper: U.S.-based investment-grade bond funds post i…
I love Yesterday a slew of junk bond funds closed at all time highs on a total return basis. The proxy index for junk bonds closed at 1343.59 vs its May 1 all time high of 1344.07. Prior to that May 1 top, junk bonds had been making all times high…
Hi Hank,
You’re spot on target with your observation. I thought my input was rather innocuous and would not receive any replies. I was dead wrong, but that didn’t surprise me as that is frequently the case.
Regardless, I thank everyone for their…
The headline is telling. More fuel for the bulls. S@P near all time highs and junk bonds at all time highs. Tops are made amid excessive optimism not pessimism. Unless of course this time it is different.
If I had traded based on my opinions or personal biases over the years I would be looking at a very bleak retirement now. More often than not the market has run counter to my expectations. But I learned long ago not to trade based on my opinions a…
So is this economy more Goldilocks ...or..... Alice in Wonderland?
Sounds about right so far YTD. This reminds me of 1995 where bonds of all stripes and colors (both risk on and risk off) and the S@P have been so concurrently strong.
@Hank, great…
