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Junkster

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Junkster
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  • For those waiting on better valuations to buy Equities, at what point would you be a serious Buyer? Do you have a specific plan in place? What about Bonds (yeah, what about Bonds) - are any type/class of bonds worth holding in 2022? Current S&…
  • January has historically been by far the strongest month for junk bonds. At one time one of the most exploitable trades out there. As traders began to anticipate this trend, Decembers began to see part of this strength. So I wouldn’t read anym…
  • I suspect we are now beyond the 2020 crash rebound period, and I think we will have to accommodate more rising interest rate impact. I don't have strong predictions about particular funds, but I am expecting bond oefs like IOFIX will come back down…
  • Couple thoughts... 1) Leveraged rail-car leases? 2) Your health? Adult USA population only ~12% have NO metabolic issues (cholestrol, high blood pressure, overweight, high blood sugar) What are YOU doing to take care of yourself? Getting ill i…
  • Thanks @Junkster, Interesting discussion on his website through many of his video interviews...here's one: His site: https://diewithzerobook.com/welcome Thanks bee, actually listened to it. On a somewhat related note, one topic I never see …
  • @Junkster...it only takes one wife or younger girl friend. . Been there done that. I have often wondered how many of us here that are in our mid seventies and beyond are single and with no heirs.
  • Remember reading "Die Broke" by Stephen Pollan and thinking they might have it right. Even better is a new book titled Die With Zero by Bill Perkins. Many of us with no wives or children/heirs have done a terrible job of spending down our nest egg …
  • I am in bond funds because they offer me the best returns with the lowest risk. Their trend persistency combined with their low volatility enable me to best implement the scale up buying strategy I learned from Nicolas Darvas. My first bond trad…
  • It's time to invoke the 25th amendment. Probably the only time I can ever say “ I agree with you”
  • Talk about the hackneyed “ different strokes for different folks”. The sole purpose of my bond email group in April was the recapture of value play in the beaten down mortgage funds. This was the result of the Black Swan liquidity meltdown. Our …
  • Somewhat in line with the above, while some see only opportunity and exploit it, others see only risk and stay far away. I started a small e mail group for bond traders and investors back in April. Four of us are traders and three investors and a…
  • In Montana and Colorado it is a severe shortage of homes. Everyone is leaving CA and NY for the wide open spaces. Realtors there will tell you the shortage is unlike anything they have ever seen. Closer to home there is also a severe shortage of…
  • Regarding rethinking retirement. I am reading a book by Bill Perkins titled Die With Zero. I thought it was going to merit a one star review but now not so sure. It has really made me think. The gist of the book is to use your money for life expe…
  • Edit: should have mentioned that the crooks, con men, and habitual liars of the trading world world also have another commonality. That is, they all seem to embrace the propaganda tactics of Joseph Goebbels. Namely, if a lie is repeated long enou…
  • I have tangled with a lot of legends in their own minds for decades now. Had diner with one trader (?) who claimed to be nearly omnipotent. He claimed to trade for a living and traded the stock index futures numerous time during the day and rarely …
  • I have an e mail group of seven open end bond fund traders/investors. It is an active group and on some days generates more posts than this board or over at Morningstar. I am biased of course but think it has some of the best traders and investors …
  • Thanks Charles. IOFIX since the crisis bottom has been the bond trade of the decade along with its sisters BDKAX, SEMPX, and others in the beaten down mortgage space. The last such trade was junk corporates in 2009 and before that emerging markets…
  • Here's a taste dating back to 2001: web.archive.org/web/20011205080443/http://64.45.57.12/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Thanks @bee. I would never in a million years remembered till I saw it in your link. Back in those days I was Dateliner. Those were th…
  • No not drinking from that punch bowel. Junk seems to have topped with stocks in early June. Defaults should continue to rise albeit prices bottom way before defaults. Obviously junk’s strength and the apparent mispricing referred to above is prim…
  • By Old_Skeet's mythology the S&P 500 Index is gextremely overbought. I'm now leaning towards trimming my equity allocation now that I'm pretty close to getting back towards even. Can stocks go hgher? Absoutely. And, I hope they do! Looks lik…
  • Two 9 to 1 up/down volume days in a row. Can’t recall that ever occurring. This means both of Marty Zweig’s indicators have kicked in within a week of each other, I had a study last January on Morningstar (which I can’t locate) about how rare and…
  • https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8_ExfBp8NIk Legendary billionaire trader Stanley Druckenmiller who several weeks ago said this was the most overvalued market in history has changed his tune. In a CNBC interview this morning he mentions the Zweig bre…
  • @Junkster - Made a bundle on the last signal, 1/2019, and hope this one is as successfulI. Thanks for posting! Our little secret but you have already made a bundle in you know what the past month and longer. Many of us are already fully invested af…
  • U.S. bond prices I follow for reference peaked around Sept. 3. This includes gov't. issues, broad based IG corp. and high yield munis. IOFIX referenced by @Junkster , and a decent HY fund of ARTFX continues an up trend from Sept. 3, but the gains re…
  • Not sure bonds (except for maybe high yield) are the place to be. 2020 may be the reverse of 2019 as the 10 year moves to the 2.50 to 3% range. The negative rate scenario may also be a thing of the past in places like Europe next year. End of the …
  • Oh to be young again, less risk averse, and more needy financially. Nothing uncertain about the market (S&P/ NASDAQ) at all time highs amid outflows from equity funds, near record inflows into money market funds and bears at a two decade+ high…
  • Tentatively selling two junk bond funds tomorrow and rolling part of the proceeds into IOFIX. That will take me from 79% to 83% in IOFIX. Last November was when this fund had its largest drawdown. Hopefully this November won’t be a repeat. Back…
  • That Big Money Poll caught my eye too in this weekend’s Barrons - Bears rise to a two decade high. Last month we saw where worried investors were flocking to money market funds bringing their assets to their highest level since 2009. Lot of trepi…
  • j: dpfnx? No, actually DPFNX is miscategorized by M* as a high yield fund. It is primarily an alt A non agency rmbs fund. I went in VWEHX. Very low conviction trade.
  • FYI: Six investment experts highlight promising areas to deploy cash. Regards, Ted https://www.bloomberg.com/features/how-to-invest-10k/?srnd=etfs I tend to agree with Terri Spath on junk bonds although my conviction isn't very high. Their al…
  • Thank you to all for responding. I am going to consider EIXIX. Please note most of its outsized YTD returns in EIXIX occurred the first four months of its existence. The past 6 months it has been mediocre at best compared to IOFIX among others. …
    in SEMPX Comment by Junkster October 2019
  • I am still holding SEMPX and IOFIX. Low interest rates, low unemployment, housing construction going up all around where I live...continue to hold both. Agree as housing has been a real linchpin for the economy recently. Also believe the economy…
    in SEMPX Comment by Junkster October 2019
  • Hi @Junkster I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd. Couple of items with this. Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these…
  • HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino). That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008. In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PR…
  • Markets tend to surprise more often than not so in that vein a contrarian could make the case that stocks will be much higher (over 10%) over the next year. Likewise the most crowded of all trades - the race to negative rates in the U.S. - will ins…
  • I cut back on IOFIX because as mentioned before I am really spooked with what is going on with the yield curve and longer dated Treasuries. Albeit continued strength in the economy as evidenced by a widening yield curve should be a positive for I…
  • There has been a noticeable uptick in long bond yields recently and it continues today. With equities nearing all time highs and junk bonds at all time highs and investors all in on the negative rate scenario, I hope this blip up doesn’t become any…
  • @Junkster R I'm not sure where they're still finding non-agency debt trading at 70 cents on the dollar of par value today. One of their major competitors, Angel Oak, at the end of 2018 said they were buying at 86 cents on the dollar: https://angeloa…
  • Worth listening to and a good overview of non agency rmbs and why the fundamentals remain so strong there.
  • You are correct, PV has 2 choices monthly or yearly performance. This means the -0.87 is per one whole month. I looked carefully (I hope) and that day last Nov was the worse one day decline in 3 years, I found several more days with -0.6 to -0.8% Y…