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Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for s…
Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for s…
I was trading stock index futures back in 1990. But as I hazily recall The Gulf War that began in August 1990 ended a bull market and led to a shallow bear that ended in a bottom in October. Then the market chopped around with some big swings until…
Meanwhile back in the real world, Crude oil prices soared today and up over 20% from their recent lows. The CRB commodity index is higher now under Trump than it ever was under Biden. My point - inflation is not dead.
https://tradingeconomics.com…
Meanwhile back in the real world, Crude oil prices soared today and up over 20% from their recent lows. The CRB commodity index is higher now under Trump than it ever was under Biden. My point - inflation is not dead.
https://tradingeconomics.com…
Overnight Futures soar as Federal Trade Court blocks Trump’s global tariffs. We shall see if this holds overnight and when Trump weighs in on the matter, They had already been up on the Nvidia news but then took a huge leap up after the tariff new…
@WABAC. Sometime will have to post all the bullish momentum indicators that triggered beginning on April 9. A plethora of them. More than in August 1982 and March 2009. So far so good.
If the markets start tuning out these Tariff announcements, maybe we suffer over the next year or so and narrowly avoid a recession. The dollar has to stabilize. Our credibility has taken a hit this year. And the Fed must remain independent, or …
@Junkster, I thought this might interest you.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/people-are-starting-to-feel-betrayed-gov-beshear-slams-trump-s-crushing-impact-on-rural-america/vi-AA1EyKgs?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=217b2e61306e47439fb512fd8f742c0f&a…
Sorry. It is a typo. SFGIX is the correct one. Both the investor and institutional shares are closed to new investors for some time. However, Andrew Foster and his team also run the smaller value-oriented fund, and it is open. However, only the i…
Have any of these indicators ever met up with the current idiot in charge?
Stay tuned and keep your finger on the button.
As a matter of fact yes. On 1/7/19 where the S@P was 17% and 27% higher 6 and 12 months later. That was an even rarer super …
Sorry. It is a typo. SFGIX is the correct one. Both the investor and institutional shares are closed to new investors for some time. However, Andrew Foster and his team also run the smaller value-oriented fund, and it is open. However, only the i…
Yesterday the rare Zweig breath thrust was triggered. (Zweig’s other momentum indicator had been triggered a few weeks ago) Twitter was all a flutter with this infallible indicator. Carson Research shows 19 signals since 1943. In all instances the…
"looking for EX US bond fund/ etf. Ideas? "
If global bond funds are acceptable, you may want to check DODLX and PFORX.
VEGBX seems like a good choice for EM bonds.
I am not much into screens to find funds but one of my favorite emerging market deb…
@stillers agree it doesn’t look very good. And one reason why I use junk bonds instead of equites to play those out of the ordinary up/down volume days. If things don’t improve by the close will exit the junk bond trade VWEHX put on at 5.31 on th…
Junkster. None of our business of course but when you say “my long time lady friend,” does that mean friend or relationship? The way things are going a relationship between a regime supporter and a long time non maga is in trouble. Sorta a microc…
Deleted original response. @stillers Let’s just say I agree with you on the potential negative ramifications on the actions of the President. And if he does get rid of Powell…………
Just pity me because although a long time conservative moderate R…
I bought a domestic junk bond fund last week due to the out of ordinary strength Wednesday in equities. VWEHX to be precise because it is a high quality junker. Will move to a lower quality junker if this rally has any legs. While I have 2 othe…
As posted by Subu Trade, this is the eight consecutive week of bears over 50, the longest stretch ever. Didn’t occur during 2008, the Dot.com bust, Covid, or the 1990 and 2022 bear markets.
IIRC, the PE ratio back in 1982 was in the single digits. That's what I call real capitulation. It's Just my WAG that current valuations are twice that after all the recent activity. I don't think that's where great bull markets typically start.
I …
And here is even more.
https://time.com/7272921/social-security-new-identity-proofing-policy-how-to-prepare/
Not even going into the details of the above link regarding the upcoming changes on the new Social Security ID policies other than it is a…
@Junkster- The problem there is that non MAGA Republicans are currently completely unrepresented in Congress. They're in even worse shape than we (nominal) Democrats.
@Old_Joe. Could not agree more and why my distaste for him and those of his ilk gr…
Who, besides the MAGA faithful, isn't tired of Trump and all of his administration's shenanigans?
Glad you prefaced that by saying “MAGA faithful” because the non MAGA Republicans are as tired of him, if not more, than the most entrenched Democrats…
@Junkster- Larry B. seems to believe that he is the judge of our "credibility". Your credibility with me is perfectly fine, sir.
Thanks Old_Joe. Pure class as I would expect from you.
Pete Hedseth and Mike Waltz need to resign or be dismissed, But obviously and unfortunately don’t see that happening.
@Junkster, how do the MAGA folks in your deep red area perceive this?
@Mona. Here in deep red MAGA country Trump and his cron…
Today was a rare 10 to 1 up volume over down volume on the NYSE. At one time one of the better buy signals (especially after market declines). Another one in the next week or two would be even more potent. However this signal was pretty worthles…
Today was a rare 10 to 1 up volume over down volume on the NYSE. At one time one of the better buy signals (especially after market declines). Another one in the next week or two would be even more potent. However this signal was pretty worthles…
Junk bonds are finally unraveling. Also YTD cash as in SNAXX is handily besting bank loan funds - the stars of the past couple years. Bank loan funds hold below investment grade debt. Cash is also besting the CLO ETFs both the higher rated one…
I think that was the plan all along. Get the recession out of the way early before the mid term. As a non MAGA Republican I have little use for Trump and his cronies, But…. I think the Treasury Secretary was one of his better picks. Bessent has…
Regarding junk bonds in @hank post above. Just received the below in my emails today from Howard Marks positive on junk bonds even with the tight spreads, Seems many major Wall Street firms have been out there lately touting junk bonds while also…
Corvettes are built 30 miles away from me. Further north in Louisville Ford has two plants where they build cars and trucks, Ford in conjunction with some Asian company is building a massive battery plant 45 miles up the road. Albeit that may be…
Today, at least this morning, the CLO ETFs especially JBBB are showing some stress. Slowing economy and recession fears akin to early last August. Then the reaction was short lived. It lasted a few days and then back to new highs. Will see what…
I couldn’t begin to express my contempt for Trump if this comes to pass, I am out in the forests nearly everyday. Cannot think of anything more soothing than enjoying the solitude of nature.
@Sven, Atlanta Fed GDPNow provides a real-time estimate of the GDP. Normally, 2025/Q1 GDP would be released few weeks after the quarter-end, initial reading and then subsequent revisions - so, Spring/Summer.
But it's concerning that Atlanta Fed's a…
How I Trade for a Living, by Gary Smith, 1999
Long ago in another lifetime and I never mention it. Trust me, there is no money in writing books unless you go the Larry Swedroe route. Meaning write 15 or 20 books and build up a dedicated followi…
