Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
IIRC, the PE ratio back in 1982 was in the single digits. That's what I call real capitulation. It's Just my WAG that current valuations are twice that after all the recent activity. I don't think that's where great bull markets typically start.
I …
And here is even more.
https://time.com/7272921/social-security-new-identity-proofing-policy-how-to-prepare/
Not even going into the details of the above link regarding the upcoming changes on the new Social Security ID policies other than it is a…
@Junkster- The problem there is that non MAGA Republicans are currently completely unrepresented in Congress. They're in even worse shape than we (nominal) Democrats.
@Old_Joe. Could not agree more and why my distaste for him and those of his ilk gr…
Who, besides the MAGA faithful, isn't tired of Trump and all of his administration's shenanigans?
Glad you prefaced that by saying “MAGA faithful” because the non MAGA Republicans are as tired of him, if not more, than the most entrenched Democrats…
@Junkster- Larry B. seems to believe that he is the judge of our "credibility". Your credibility with me is perfectly fine, sir.
Thanks Old_Joe. Pure class as I would expect from you.
Pete Hedseth and Mike Waltz need to resign or be dismissed, But obviously and unfortunately don’t see that happening.
@Junkster, how do the MAGA folks in your deep red area perceive this?
@Mona. Here in deep red MAGA country Trump and his cron…
Today was a rare 10 to 1 up volume over down volume on the NYSE. At one time one of the better buy signals (especially after market declines). Another one in the next week or two would be even more potent. However this signal was pretty worthles…
Today was a rare 10 to 1 up volume over down volume on the NYSE. At one time one of the better buy signals (especially after market declines). Another one in the next week or two would be even more potent. However this signal was pretty worthles…
Junk bonds are finally unraveling. Also YTD cash as in SNAXX is handily besting bank loan funds - the stars of the past couple years. Bank loan funds hold below investment grade debt. Cash is also besting the CLO ETFs both the higher rated one…
I think that was the plan all along. Get the recession out of the way early before the mid term. As a non MAGA Republican I have little use for Trump and his cronies, But…. I think the Treasury Secretary was one of his better picks. Bessent has…
Regarding junk bonds in @hank post above. Just received the below in my emails today from Howard Marks positive on junk bonds even with the tight spreads, Seems many major Wall Street firms have been out there lately touting junk bonds while also…
Corvettes are built 30 miles away from me. Further north in Louisville Ford has two plants where they build cars and trucks, Ford in conjunction with some Asian company is building a massive battery plant 45 miles up the road. Albeit that may be…
Today, at least this morning, the CLO ETFs especially JBBB are showing some stress. Slowing economy and recession fears akin to early last August. Then the reaction was short lived. It lasted a few days and then back to new highs. Will see what…
I couldn’t begin to express my contempt for Trump if this comes to pass, I am out in the forests nearly everyday. Cannot think of anything more soothing than enjoying the solitude of nature.
@Sven, Atlanta Fed GDPNow provides a real-time estimate of the GDP. Normally, 2025/Q1 GDP would be released few weeks after the quarter-end, initial reading and then subsequent revisions - so, Spring/Summer.
But it's concerning that Atlanta Fed's a…
How I Trade for a Living, by Gary Smith, 1999
Long ago in another lifetime and I never mention it. Trust me, there is no money in writing books unless you go the Larry Swedroe route. Meaning write 15 or 20 books and build up a dedicated followi…
Not sure with so many expecting a rerun of 2008 if that is a possibility. Black swans come out of nowhere not when it seems to be the consensus, I have been hearing for 15 years or longer about the demise of the junk bond market because of the “d…
It's not surprising that the Bull-Bear Spread is very low due to current events.
What does the data suggest if the Bull-Bear Spread remains at very low levels?
Are there any studies showing the potential impact to consumer spending?
Subu Trade (che…
Completely incomprehensible to do that when geological risk is elevated on Russia and China fronts. The old GOPs must be rolling over on their grave.
The old GOP = RINO = not MAGA = me. And yes, we are having a fit. All this chaos here, there, …
*. Deleted my post. Probably should have posted in off topic. Plus, it sounded a bit braggy. And as we have learned, those who brag are either A) Losers B) Liars or C) both.
@Junkster - would you be concerned that this regime or Congressional dysfunction makes the US default on its debt? If so, wouldn't that pretty much crash Treasuries and make folks reconsider them as a 'safe haven' for the forseeable future?
That …
I would think the massive government layoffs has to eventuality have an adverse impact on stocks and a positive impact on higher rated bonds. The past month higher rated bonds have seen above average returns and maybe in anticipation of the Februa…
Thanks msf! I have a CD in my IRA account maturing in a few days. I am tempted to reinvest it in 2 year callable CD, treating it like a 6 month noncallable CD. If it is called, I think I will still be able to get a 4% replacement callable CD, and…
For the day, CBYYX +0.7%, SHRIX +0.66%, EMPIX - 0.77%. That is a big divergence between CBYYX and EMPIX. With today's divergence, EMPIX fell behind CBYYX by 0.8% in Milton effect. I hope CBYYX is not going to give back today's gain on Monday.
…
"Also I have a quirk when it comes to OEF bond funds. I prefer the ones that pay daily vs. the ones that pay monthly."
I share that feeling because the monthly ones give the illusion of smoother NAV than what the NAV otherwise would be. They do n…
Congrats to those here in the CLO bond ETFs. More specifically JAAA and PAAA in the investment grade hovering around 6% YTD with nary a drawdown. And JBBB and CLOZ in the below investment grade hovering around 8.5% YTD with just a blip. The blip…
junkster wrote: "Regarding CBYYX where a few are invested including me. I re entered this fund in July after Hurricane Beryl had no impact whatsoever. Hurricane Beryl was a cat 5 and broke all sorts of meteorological records. Yet none of the cat bon…
balubalu: here's what happened last may, tho i don't fully understand it: https://www.artemis.bm/news/cat-bond-market-suffers-one-of-its-biggest-non-loss-event-weekly-declines-icosa/. other than that drop, i don't see any other significant ones in …
Ended up holding on to CBLDX, it was actually up last Friday. It had positive returns in 2020 and 2022. That's the kind of bond fund I like. The five year returns are also pretty good, though I doubt we'll be in that sort of rate environment any tim…
I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX
My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even th…
Are we beginning to see bond vigilantes in action? Or are people just bummed out by the employment report and the Fed cutting back on the punch bowl?
Trading and investing can often be counterintuitive. How often have we heard (including from me) …
https://www.lazardassetmanagement.com/ie/en_uk/funds/ucits-funds/lazard-nordic-high-yield-bond-fund/f4941/s319/
The above link is the Nordic High Yield bond fund offered by Lazard. Inception date was November 2, 2022, It has annualized return si…
I was able to place a trade but didn't do it.
I always wait several weeks to see the performance of a new fund.
We drove today to Johnson City TN and tried to hike in 2 places but they were closed. I don't understand why because these places were no…
Interesting
My Schwab account says $30 but "cannot process order at this time"
Fido says cannot be traded at all
I talked with a Schwab rep and said the problem as I suspected was the 0 for the price. The mutual fund department said they would h…
Tried placing an order this morning at Schwab where the fund is or will be available. Received a message. “The order cannot be placed”. Then further down “we cannot process your order for this fund. Please contact a Schwab Rep…….”
I assume or…
