Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Yesterday at the close went back into emerging markets equity. I thought my exit there in ARTZX posted on October 10 would go down as a major mistake. But not quite. Back in with small positions in ARTZX and SIVLX. Small positions can lead to la…
The very unusual situation of poor sentiments and indicators near market highs has been noted in the media and at MFO. The K-economy explanation sounds reasonable.
AAII Sentiment is survey based (and so is the UM sentiment - not included here), but…
Some crazy bearish numbers out there from AAII to the CNN Fear and Greed Index. Saw where yesterday the $SPY Put Volume jumped to its second highest on record surpassed only by April 4 of this year. Probably explains today’s rally.
After the buy s…
The bottom line is the Republicans are in serious trouble when it comes to the 2026 mid terms. I am beginning to see cracks among my MAGA friends when it comes to Trump.
Some crazy bearish numbers out there from AAII to the CNN Fear and Greed Index. Saw where yesterday the $SPY Put Volume jumped to its second highest on record surpassed only by April 4 of this year. Probably explains today’s rally.
I rarely say much about Trump. But what a wack job. Sociopaths can never keep their mouths shut. They also can never stop bragging about themselves Such inappropriate comments regarding Cheney.
@hank: Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.
Um....the markets are in a bipolar state, tending toward nonsense. Stunning shift in attitude today.
Agree. And I think it’s overly-simplistic and non-productive as an inves…
All over X today was the fact that for the first time since April 30 the S@P closed below its 50 day moving average. The fifth longest uptrend since 1950. Going into today we had something like 5 Hindenburg Omens, One in and of itself is pretty m…
I can give you just as many reasons the market will be strong in the coming months as I can it will be weak. Bottoms are much easier to pick than tops. Many don’t like stocks here because of market breath reminiscent of 1999. I tend to agree, But…
EGRIX imo is much riskier than a plain vanilla bond fund due to it's strategy -- long/short, lotsa macro calls, frontier market holdings, FX risk, etc..
It has performed really well with an amazingly low SD with the falling dollar as a tailwind. Bu…
I show Bitcoin high as 126,270 on October 6. Albeit other sources show different highs. That alone is worrisome. It has been all over the map today but as I post it is at 94,358. That is a 25% decline in 5 to 6 weeks. The youngsters are learnin…
The current AAII bears of 49.1 came out when the S@P was within 1% of an all time high. That occurred only once before and that was April 10, 2013. A year later the market was up over 17%.
Insane bearishness AAII Bulls - Bears average over the pa…
https://www.artemis.bm/news/catastrophe-bond-ucits-fund-returns-accelerate-to-8-88-after-october/
The above link has a chart of the returns for the CAT bond index going back to 2011. The past three years were by far the best and all because it was…
Wouldn't a good mutual fund ticker be "SUCER"? For, Seems Unlikely Catastrophic Events Result?
Cat bonds have had double digit returns going on three years now with virtually no volatility along the way. The last major triggering event was Hurrica…
No way is that a safe portfolio based on the credit quality of several of the funds mentioned. In your favor I doubt we ever have a bond bust ala 2022 in my lifetime ( which is pretty short) Then again if we get another 2008 you are toast because…
I suspect that one's reading and involvement with all things at MFO can provide a full mental stimulant to support that side of brain health. The physical side of brain health can arrive from so many other aspects of an individuals choice, long term…
Aging and longevity is the new wave science that promoters are into The best brain supplement is exercise. But the promoters don’t want you to know that because it is free. As an aside, I take 22 supplements daily for aging and longevity. Yes, …
Since rates were cut in September junk hasn’t performed well. Many of the more popular names ala RSIIX, OSTIX, CBLDX, among others are negative over the past month. One of the better categories over that same time period has been MBS and related f…
Thanks @hank and @Junkster. One factor contributing to a rising market is that I haven't bought anything of significance in a long time. Everyone is welcome for my restraint.
@Old_Joe Please stay restrained. Just hope you make it to 90 and then ca…
Bought some CZR 2 or 3 weeks ago and it promptly tumbled about 15%. Sold. Bought some AJG a week ago and it fell 8 or 9% in 3 days. (Still hanging on). This morning I added a little SWZ to the CEF basket (replacing ETJ). Each of the investments…
Friday was the worst day for the S@P since April 10. A note from Subu Trade on X. Since 1950 there have only been 8 times the market made an all time high (as it did Thursday) and then dropped 2.5% or more the next day as it did Friday. On all 8 …
I had mentioned previously holding some ARTZX. Had rolled my SIVLX there. But as of end of market today will be completely out of ARTZX and emerging market equity funds. . Still hold emerging market debt primarily AGEYX but not sure how much longe…
Today the US dollar spiked upward 0.5%. All PM ETFs fell by 1-4%. Have the fundamentals of PM changed?
The dollar is within reach of multi month highs from mid August. If it takes out its August highs it could get ugly for the bears. All the recen…
Howdy junkster,
Long time. You make a great point. For the vast majority, back up the truck is 5-10%. Not to mention being careful getting into an ongoing bull market. DCA would be most appropriate
That said, I honestly see this run lasting a…
This year the story has been the decline of the dollar. It has juiced emerging market equities and debt (among many others) which many of us here have profitably and continue to embrace, But when I read phases like “ back up the truck and fill it” …
The curse of the compound effect is something you rarely if ever read about, Meaning, the older you get the more your money accumulates because of the compound effect. At 78 I have given up on trying to spend down my money. Unfortunately others a…
If you check the supplement dated February 28, 2025 page two it says effective March 14 all 2% redemption fees are removed on the 2 funds in question above. Time for another posting hiatus.
at schwab, i went to sell some AGEPX and got a message that i had to call to sell it since it had a redemption fee (in addition to any usual short-term trading fee, i gather). i forgot to call and am okay that i didn't.
That explains it. You alw…
Each year there is a sleeper team that comes to the fore. I am wondering if this year it will be the Packers, The past two years with Love they have been really good but not quite elite. This year they may just be elite. And now they have Parson…
APDPX and its more risky emerging markets counterpart, APDOX are good funds, but those who trade funds frequently may not like the 2% redemption fee for shares redeemed within 90 days or less.
I know the Artisan High Yield fund has such a fee but …
Wow, 4 teams? I've always rooted for 2 different NFL teams and I thought that was "cheating". (I will not name them because they both stink).
I use to be a one team guy - whatever team Tom Brady was on. The Pats and then the Bucs. Yes I know m…
TONIGHT Packers & Commanders
Hope you have Amazon !
Love the NFL. Hope I don’t offend anyone but my four favorite teams are the Bills, Bengals, 49ers, and Ravens.
@Old_Joe. thanks but unlike some who think they have all the answers (ain’t hindsight great) I don’t. And by the way, meaning to say this for quite a while. You have accomplished something few on this board have achieved - reaching the ripe old age …
@dtconroe. I will be curious what your final decision is. I would also like to retract my recommendations. Those two funds - SCFZX and HOSIX - were stellar during the most recent period of higher rates but their yields have been dropping like a …
@Junkster You said from above post, "This year bonds haven’t been my thing with my focus and highest positioning shifting to emerging market equity funds."
Would you mind mentioning how much leeway you're allowing these funds. They seem to bounce a…
