Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Somewhat in line with the above, while some see only opportunity and exploit it, others see only risk and stay far away. I started a small e mail group for bond traders and investors back in April. Four of us are traders and three investors and a…
In Montana and Colorado it is a severe shortage of homes. Everyone is leaving CA and NY for the wide open spaces. Realtors there will tell you the shortage is unlike anything they have ever seen. Closer to home there is also a severe shortage of…
Regarding rethinking retirement. I am reading a book by Bill Perkins titled Die With Zero. I thought it was going to merit a one star review but now not so sure. It has really made me think. The gist of the book is to use your money for life expe…
Edit: should have mentioned that the crooks, con men, and habitual liars of the trading world world also have another commonality. That is, they all seem to embrace the propaganda tactics of Joseph Goebbels. Namely, if a lie is repeated long enou…
I have tangled with a lot of legends in their own minds for decades now. Had diner with one trader (?) who claimed to be nearly omnipotent. He claimed to trade for a living and traded the stock index futures numerous time during the day and rarely …
I have an e mail group of seven open end bond fund traders/investors. It is an active group and on some days generates more posts than this board or over at Morningstar. I am biased of course but think it has some of the best traders and investors …
Thanks Charles. IOFIX since the crisis bottom has been the bond trade of the decade along with its sisters BDKAX, SEMPX, and others in the beaten down mortgage space. The last such trade was junk corporates in 2009 and before that emerging markets…
Here's a taste dating back to 2001:
web.archive.org/web/20011205080443/http://64.45.57.12/wwwboard/wwwboard.html
Thanks @bee. I would never in a million years remembered till I saw it in your link. Back in those days I was Dateliner. Those were th…
No not drinking from that punch bowel. Junk seems to have topped with stocks in early June. Defaults should continue to rise albeit prices bottom way before defaults. Obviously junk’s strength and the apparent mispricing referred to above is prim…
By Old_Skeet's mythology the S&P 500 Index is gextremely overbought. I'm now leaning towards trimming my equity allocation now that I'm pretty close to getting back towards even.
Can stocks go hgher? Absoutely. And, I hope they do!
Looks lik…
Two 9 to 1 up/down volume days in a row. Can’t recall that ever occurring. This means both of Marty Zweig’s indicators have kicked in within a week of each other, I had a study last January on Morningstar (which I can’t locate) about how rare and…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8_ExfBp8NIk
Legendary billionaire trader Stanley Druckenmiller who several weeks ago said this was the most overvalued market in history has changed his tune. In a CNBC interview this morning he mentions the Zweig bre…
@Junkster - Made a bundle on the last signal, 1/2019, and hope this one is as successfulI. Thanks for posting!
Our little secret but you have already made a bundle in you know what the past month and longer. Many of us are already fully invested af…
U.S. bond prices I follow for reference peaked around Sept. 3. This includes gov't. issues, broad based IG corp. and high yield munis. IOFIX referenced by @Junkster , and a decent HY fund of ARTFX continues an up trend from Sept. 3, but the gains re…
Not sure bonds (except for maybe high yield) are the place to be. 2020 may be the reverse of 2019 as the 10 year moves to the 2.50 to 3% range. The negative rate scenario may also be a thing of the past in places like Europe next year. End of the …
Oh to be young again, less risk averse, and more needy financially. Nothing uncertain about the market (S&P/ NASDAQ) at all time highs amid outflows from equity funds, near record inflows into money market funds and bears at a two decade+ high…
Tentatively selling two junk bond funds tomorrow and rolling part of the proceeds into IOFIX. That will take me from 79% to 83% in IOFIX. Last November was when this fund had its largest drawdown. Hopefully this November won’t be a repeat. Back…
That Big Money Poll caught my eye too in this weekend’s Barrons - Bears rise to a two decade high. Last month we saw where worried investors were flocking to money market funds bringing their assets to their highest level since 2009. Lot of trepi…
j: dpfnx?
No, actually DPFNX is miscategorized by M* as a high yield fund. It is primarily an alt A non agency rmbs fund. I went in VWEHX. Very low conviction trade.
FYI: Six investment experts highlight promising areas to deploy cash.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/how-to-invest-10k/?srnd=etfs
I tend to agree with Terri Spath on junk bonds although my conviction isn't very high. Their al…
Thank you to all for responding. I am going to consider EIXIX.
Please note most of its outsized YTD returns in EIXIX occurred the first four months of its existence. The past 6 months it has been mediocre at best compared to IOFIX among others. …
I am still holding SEMPX and IOFIX. Low interest rates, low unemployment, housing construction going up all around where I live...continue to hold both.
Agree as housing has been a real linchpin for the economy recently. Also believe the economy…
Hi @Junkster
I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
Couple of items with this.
Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these…
HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PR…
Markets tend to surprise more often than not so in that vein a contrarian could make the case that stocks will be much higher (over 10%) over the next year. Likewise the most crowded of all trades - the race to negative rates in the U.S. - will ins…
I cut back on IOFIX because as mentioned before I am really spooked with what is going on with the yield curve and longer dated Treasuries. Albeit continued strength in the economy as evidenced by a widening yield curve should be a positive for I…
There has been a noticeable uptick in long bond yields recently and it continues today. With equities nearing all time highs and junk bonds at all time highs and investors all in on the negative rate scenario, I hope this blip up doesn’t become any…
@Junkster
R
I'm not sure where they're still finding non-agency debt trading at 70 cents on the dollar of par value today. One of their major competitors, Angel Oak, at the end of 2018 said they were buying at 86 cents on the dollar: https://angeloa…
You are correct, PV has 2 choices monthly or yearly performance. This means the -0.87 is per one whole month.
I looked carefully (I hope) and that day last Nov was the worse one day decline in 3 years, I found several more days with -0.6 to -0.8%
Y…
IOFIX 10.44% 2.69% 14.04% 3.49% -0.87% 3.16 13.47
@FD1000, you and Morningstar must have a different definition of maximum drawdown than me. -0.87% over the past three years?? I mean it declined 1.29% on just one day alone last November.
@junkster I was writing about funds back when those studies on new funds came out and a few things come to mind:
1. In the 1990s many new small cap and growth funds were launched that benefitted from extra IPO allocation to hot dot.com stocks like …
In a hurry to get out on the trails so don’t have time to check but regarding @BenWP’s thoughtful post above...... aside from IOFIX haven’t some of the AlphaCentric funds been dismal performers with one or two already liquidated?
@Junkster
Regarding the new fund effect: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1101615
I cite detailed studies in my book by the Charles Schwab Center for Investment Research and also by Kobren Insight Group on the validity of the new…
At the beginning of every mutual fund prospectus is generally a little seemingly innocuous sentence: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. So what if it's been hot in the past? The only question that matters to anyone reading this righ…
"... It attracted more capital in last quarter of 2017 than in the first six quarters of its existence. It ended the year with $1.6B, five times the level it started the year..."
Jeepers. Is that a lotta "dumb money," then? Thanks for replying, all …
FWIW saying, I'm receiving noticeably more investment-signal service solicitations these days, including from services I briefly dabbled with over 10 years ago and haven't heard from in AGES. The contrarian in me takes that as a warning sign for e…
It's not politics but trump will Loose this time for sure -13 points in most polls vs old joe/vp sanders (Dream team) .. 99%chance that Biden will win elections 2020
No need for recession
The accuracy of political polls ( Brexit and Trump) is ak…
@junkster Its my understanding you let market action fully guide your buy and sell decisions. But, I wonder if you care to speculate about the recent resilience of the high yield market. Do you see it as being mostly due to persistently low inter…
I have been reading about all the woes about to befall the junk bond market because of how levered companies are, the maturity wall, etc. for several years now. I would love to exploit it but the opportunity of a lifetime and most likely to never …
