Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Reply to @Mona: Mona I would not recommend this for others here. As you well know, this is primarily a momentum position based on how fast junk munis have come out of the gate in 2014. My HFRZX is still performing well so don't intend to go overbo…
Although not outperforming my junk loan fund (yet) junk muni funds are outperforming both junk corporates and junk bank loan funds the first five trading days of 2014 and they certainly have my attention.
Reply to @hank:
http://www.xavierhs.org/s/81/index.aspx?pgid=603
Art is a good Jesuit educated boy. Sounds like a great guy considering his all his charitable activities. I was a bit shocked he graduated HS in 59. I graduated from another Xavi…
I completely agree, markets are not amenable to forecasts and predictions and most especially by the so-called ivory tower experts. The best predictor of the market is the action of the market itself. Although I don't have the literature at hand, …
Reply to @hank: That's a beyond bad track record by a Mensanite who thinks he has it all figured out. Like I said, sell your losers and hang on to your winners. Just ask Ted about his PRHSX and how it has enhanced his net worth over the years. …
Reply to @Mark: MJG is extremely biased to math and stats because that was his career background. It's not needed at all in investing and trading. You could throw darts to select your funds or stocks and then simply keep your winners and sell your…
This thread brings back memories of bygone days. In the past and in other forums, primarily trading forums, to flush out Pretenders (as well as Crooks, Con Men, and Charlatans) I would package up my actual brokerage statements (for X amount of year…
Investor +1
Ted +1
cman +1
Reminds me of all the "sophisticated" investors seduced by Bernie Madoff. Let's revisit this in a couple years.
Edit If you google "Lending Tree Scam" you come up with information such as the link below and…
Thanks Ted and keep the links coming.
>>>Very few funds can consistently stay at the top. Our studies show that as time horizons widen, the performance persistence of top quartile managers declines.
Reply to @MarkM: I'm waiting for Ted to say it's time to close this thread. In the meantime, back in the 90s you could trade in and out of mutual funds on a daily basis (if needed) at fund families such as Strong and INVESCO. I took full advantag…
Reply to @MarkM: Mark, what I like best about David is he is not heavy-handed and allows dissent against the norm here.
As for your link about chasing performance, here's one that runs counter to that. Back in the 90s I was always a fan of Shel…
Since we are on the subject of groupthink, the link below, for better or worse, pretty much sums up its definition. I guess I am a disruptor of the unifomity of the crowd here. Albeit, I have always agreed with Ted that the fewer the better.
As f…
Reply to @Vert: I never considered Grandeur funds groupthink, but regardless, as you say, they are super funds. SFGIX though is most definitely groupthink. Maybe this is much ado about nothing and I am sorry for even bringing up the term. All …
And don't forget AQRNX. But you are right, a MFO groupthink fund is not necessarily a bad thing. As mohan pointed out, RPHYX is a good example. Albeit with that one, some seem to have bought it for reasons beyond what it is intended for - a consi…
I have never ever understood the mentality of the gold and precious metal bugs. Gold hit $850 oz in January 1980. Silver hit $50 oz in April 1980. The Dow was under 1000 back then. If you want to create long term wealth, ignore the run for the …
Reply to @Swede: You got me there. Not all groupthink funds are dogs, laggards and lemming funds. Matthews and Artisan are super fund families and what's not to like about FPACX. But about that ARIVX.....
I prefer to uncover my own funds via m…
SEEDX is classified as a large blend fund. Have you looked at all the large blend funds that have 30%+ gains in 2013??? Why would you want a laggard such as SEEDX? New funds tend to outperform their first year (the new fund effect) and the fact…
ARIVX, as I have discussed before, is a MFO groupthink fund. Not to get too philosophical, but old age comes sooner than you might think ( I say that from experience) It's a shame younger investors in a year of 25% and 30% returns have to waste …
Thanks bee, junk bonds are the most underappreciated asset class on the planet. There's never much drama with them (volatility) as they trend so pure and persistently, be it up or down. Vanguard's junk bond fund, although a laggard I would never r…
As the article points out, not all categories of bond funds have had outflows and not all categories of bond funds are negative for the year. As that wise sage Benton Davis pointed out long ago, "Stock (and bond) market success comes from following…
I've been with many brokerage firms in my time and what sticks out about Fidelity was the professionalism of just about every rep I ever spoke with there. Very well trained!! I didn't last long with them though because their fees for short term tr…
Reply to @MikeM: Thanks Mike and glad RYOIX has worked out well for you. I completely understand how monte carlo simulations and other number crunching endeavors can be valuable and worthwhile tools for many, but just not everyone, myself included…
>>>>I truly do not understand the reluctance of a few MFO participants to consider adding Monte Carlo methods to their financial toolbox. It is a powerful tool with unique capabilities and is specifically designed to address complex and …
Reply to @DavidV: David, yes, purely a tight rising channel momentum trade where I am using a 1.25% (actually more like 1.10) trailing stop from highs. That's because over the past 12 months the fund hasn't had that type of decline and such a decli…
I "think" I am retired or at least trying to be retired. Albeit, since my profession was that of a trader, primarily equity and bond mutual funds, you never actually retire. But very recently I have decided to concentrate only on bonds, bonds, a…
Caution and a dislike of bank loan funds has been a common thread on this board all year as they keep ticking higher and higher. I prefer to let the market dictate my actions and they are a huge part of my portfolio, albeit on a short lease of a 1.…
Ever since I learned the 2% redemption fee was abolished in October have been aggressively adding to HFRZX - #1 in its category YTD, one year, and three year. They are one of the few bank loan funds that has ventured into CLOs. Maybe playing with…
Reply to @Ted: In part because unlike about 99% here you tend to be more of a concentrated investor and don't hold 1001 funds. You also don't hold any groupthink funds. Congrats on the great year. Let's hope it's even better on 12/31/13.
Reply to @bee: CHY's 13% decline in May/June would steer me away. Prefer HFRZX which is this year's PONDX in that the past 12 months it has been one smooth ride up without a 1.2% decline. Yes, I know, 2008 was ugly, that is why you use a 1.2% exi…
According to your 11/8 post here you were already over 90% in cash. You sold out in 2008 because of a falling market and now you are selling because of the rising market.
It appears you were really scarred by the 2008/09 bear market and have never …
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1504562-target-maturity-etfs-shelter-bond-holdings-from-rising-rates
The link above is the list for all the ETFs from munis, to corporates, to high yield of the target rate maturity bond funds that hold until maturit…
I've been at this game for almost 50 years and never has anything benefited me more than QE. Ben served it up on a silver platter for investors and traders both small and large alike.
Tapering is completely dependent on the strength or weakness of upcoming economic data. Since some believe the economy is much stronger than most perceive, that would mean sooner than later. Since the market is a perverse animal, the next leg up i…
Thanks MJG. I have always been a firm believer in the luck factor when it comes to trading/investing. One of my five favorite books of all time is the Luck Factor by Max Gunther (not to be confused by a rip-off of the same title but different auth…
