Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I mentioned this earlier in the month, but many of the sentiment polls were at historic extremes of optimism. I was beginning to wonder if it was different this time (market sells off when everyone is bullish) but I guess not. Since 2009, bull mar…
Reply to @cman: >>>If the above seems dull and uninspiring and it is selecting the red marble or the blue marble that gets you excited, join the club of fund pushers here. Safer than being adducted to internet porn, just don't mislead you…
You have some nice bond funds. I went to Morningstar and see that over the past 20 years 1/23/94 to 1/23/14 a $10,000 investment in bond fund LSBRX has grown to 67,450 vs. 57,200 for the S&P and 44,053 for the Large Cap Blend category. So mu…
http://blogs.wellsfargo.com/advantagevoice/2014/01/municipal-investments-2014/
#2 in the link above is a very compelling reason for hiyield munis. Also last year, in spite of all the negatives out of Detroit and Puerto Rico the default rate for bo…
Reply to @MikeM: Sounds good to me. Bonds are on a roll in 2014 especially the munis.
Seems like the fervor for being in equity funds has really picked up on this board.
Reply to @MJG: >>>> I have been a long advocate for these workhorse financial tools, and have been surprised at the reluctance of an MFO minority who persistently resist application of these proven tools. Thank you for referencing these…
catch, I don't subscribe. I have a friend who sends me the numbers each week. Not to sound like a cop-out, but sentiment is more art than science. It's a combination of lots of tools that measure investor sentiment from Investors Intelligence, Co…
Let's not forget about the sentiment issue here. Some of the sentiment polls such as the Hulbert Sentiment Index was recently at historic highs of optimism. Likewise with the Market Vane poll. My favorite, Investors Intelligence, is at highs not …
For some reason couldn't post the chart in the link in my post above in my discussion with Hank. It is a long term *total return* chart of the junk bond market and about as pretty a chart as you will find. It illustrates the trend persistency of j…
Reply to @hank: >>>>It's likely the low point - for most markets anyway - was reached around March 9. If you have the average losses for junk bond funds by that date, I'd appreciate it.
Reply to @hank: >>>>On the other hand, I am still haunted by the faces and voices of long-acquainted friends and neighbors relating to me their heart-wrenching stories of 50% or greater losses of retirement savings over a very short (1…
Hank said >>>>I'd still argue that someone under 40 or 50 would be a lot better off staying 100% equity funds at that stage in life and than perhaps slowly adding some alternatives, including bonds, as they grow older.
BobC summed it up best "cautious, conserative, capital preservation mandate" Seems the manager likes to be where the action is but in a very conservative way. It's now primarily a *short* term high yield bond fund, before that it was listed as a …
Reply to @Mona: Mona I would not recommend this for others here. As you well know, this is primarily a momentum position based on how fast junk munis have come out of the gate in 2014. My HFRZX is still performing well so don't intend to go overbo…
Although not outperforming my junk loan fund (yet) junk muni funds are outperforming both junk corporates and junk bank loan funds the first five trading days of 2014 and they certainly have my attention.
Reply to @hank:
http://www.xavierhs.org/s/81/index.aspx?pgid=603
Art is a good Jesuit educated boy. Sounds like a great guy considering his all his charitable activities. I was a bit shocked he graduated HS in 59. I graduated from another Xavi…
I completely agree, markets are not amenable to forecasts and predictions and most especially by the so-called ivory tower experts. The best predictor of the market is the action of the market itself. Although I don't have the literature at hand, …
Reply to @hank: That's a beyond bad track record by a Mensanite who thinks he has it all figured out. Like I said, sell your losers and hang on to your winners. Just ask Ted about his PRHSX and how it has enhanced his net worth over the years. …
Reply to @Mark: MJG is extremely biased to math and stats because that was his career background. It's not needed at all in investing and trading. You could throw darts to select your funds or stocks and then simply keep your winners and sell your…
This thread brings back memories of bygone days. In the past and in other forums, primarily trading forums, to flush out Pretenders (as well as Crooks, Con Men, and Charlatans) I would package up my actual brokerage statements (for X amount of year…
Investor +1
Ted +1
cman +1
Reminds me of all the "sophisticated" investors seduced by Bernie Madoff. Let's revisit this in a couple years.
Edit If you google "Lending Tree Scam" you come up with information such as the link below and…
Thanks Ted and keep the links coming.
>>>Very few funds can consistently stay at the top. Our studies show that as time horizons widen, the performance persistence of top quartile managers declines.
Reply to @MarkM: I'm waiting for Ted to say it's time to close this thread. In the meantime, back in the 90s you could trade in and out of mutual funds on a daily basis (if needed) at fund families such as Strong and INVESCO. I took full advantag…
Reply to @MarkM: Mark, what I like best about David is he is not heavy-handed and allows dissent against the norm here.
As for your link about chasing performance, here's one that runs counter to that. Back in the 90s I was always a fan of Shel…
Since we are on the subject of groupthink, the link below, for better or worse, pretty much sums up its definition. I guess I am a disruptor of the unifomity of the crowd here. Albeit, I have always agreed with Ted that the fewer the better.
As f…
Reply to @Vert: I never considered Grandeur funds groupthink, but regardless, as you say, they are super funds. SFGIX though is most definitely groupthink. Maybe this is much ado about nothing and I am sorry for even bringing up the term. All …
And don't forget AQRNX. But you are right, a MFO groupthink fund is not necessarily a bad thing. As mohan pointed out, RPHYX is a good example. Albeit with that one, some seem to have bought it for reasons beyond what it is intended for - a consi…
I have never ever understood the mentality of the gold and precious metal bugs. Gold hit $850 oz in January 1980. Silver hit $50 oz in April 1980. The Dow was under 1000 back then. If you want to create long term wealth, ignore the run for the …
Reply to @Swede: You got me there. Not all groupthink funds are dogs, laggards and lemming funds. Matthews and Artisan are super fund families and what's not to like about FPACX. But about that ARIVX.....
I prefer to uncover my own funds via m…
SEEDX is classified as a large blend fund. Have you looked at all the large blend funds that have 30%+ gains in 2013??? Why would you want a laggard such as SEEDX? New funds tend to outperform their first year (the new fund effect) and the fact…
ARIVX, as I have discussed before, is a MFO groupthink fund. Not to get too philosophical, but old age comes sooner than you might think ( I say that from experience) It's a shame younger investors in a year of 25% and 30% returns have to waste …
Thanks bee, junk bonds are the most underappreciated asset class on the planet. There's never much drama with them (volatility) as they trend so pure and persistently, be it up or down. Vanguard's junk bond fund, although a laggard I would never r…
